Ah! Ça Ira (AMW, OOC)

by **Iansisle** » Thu Dec 12, 2013 11:04 pm

So, this is likely to be a long and convoluted Out of Character post. I was approached by TCB and Cassanos, who expressed interest in a “second front” to the Geletian conflict – namely, that Gandvik might attempt to take advantage of the distraction caused by Niblo-Roman intervention in Geletia to quash the Gull Flag Republic. This seems perfectly reasonable to me, and in fact furthers the story-telling agenda I've had – after all, every good revolution needs some bloody-bannered tyrants coming into our arms to cut the throats of our sons and women!

The problem, of course, is that this would involve a war that, by my rough estimate, has a 1500+ kilometer front, assuming that it stays limited to Nibelunc, the Shield, and Gandvik. And given the pace of AMW, that has the chance of bogging us down until Kingdom Come. I'm starting this thread as a way for the three of us – and anyone else who is interested (WoS, BG, and Depkazia jump out as immediate candidates) – to hash out general plot-lines and let us focus the roleplay in on specific emblematic actions rather than attempt to describe the entire swathe in a narrative post that would take months to compose.

The other problem is that I've nowhere near the military experience or ability that I should like to ascribe to certain strategists within the Republic. I'm hoping that this thread would be a good way to bounce ideas off TCB and Cass and keep myself from doing anything too stupid, within the general strategic parameters I've opted to take for the GFR.

the Military

The Republic's army is not confident in its ability to slog it out with the more numerous and more advanced Gandvians. It sees its advantages in greater tactical and strategic flexibility, better training and morale, and superior logistical support (in somewhat of an anomaly for the Shield!). As such, the Army has no plans of a stand-up fight in the early days, instead opting to trade space for time, stretch out the Gandvian support lines, and then attempt to strike a weak spot. This does mean that Vess will almost certainly be abandoned to Gandvian troops early in the war, which could set up some intriguing urban warfare scenarios, as groups of Gull-loyalist partisans fight street-to-street with occupying Gandvian forces (assuming, of course, that they do occupy and not simply lay siege like they were attempting at Rutters).

The Air Force is slightly more confident than the army in its ability in the early days. A great deal of effort and investment has been sunk into training and dispersing the fighter fleet across thousands of small airfields, many of which are “dummies” containing old, non-operational Colts rather than the similar Warblers. The essential plan is for the Warblers to rise behind the faster Gandvian jets, hopefully hidden by ground cover and their exceptional climb rate, engange with Rhubarbs, and seek cover at another base. The biggest weakness in the plan is the vulnerable and essential EW planes it requires and the low amount of base security the Shield can afford for its thousands of airstrips.

I should say that no matter what, I don't mind the Republic getting a bloody nose at the start – or even worse. In fact, the more that we can convince the population that they are facing an existential threat, the better! I should imagine that most battles in the early phase would consist of brief rearguard actions, with the occasional lagging until being caught and obliterated. It's all well and good to maintain an army in the field, of course, but it will probably look entirely like cowardice and defeat. And I should imagine that the people in areas abandoned to the Ganders won't be too happy!

The one exception comes with Nicodemo Ranalte, who is currently leading a mechanized brigade. I don't care whether he wins or loses, so long as there is a convincing argument that can be made to the public that he is the savior of the Republic! Probably easier in victory.

The State

As is probably fairly obvious, the GFR is suffering from an unbalanced power structure and unresolved struggles between the Director-President and his cabinet. As a result of compromises made in the writing of the Constitution, Bradsworth is only able to exercise the loosest control over his own deputies, and the Directorates of War and Justice in particular are breaking almost entirely free of him. But Bradsworth can't “fire” his wayward directors without calling a general election – one in which the Radicals would hold a significant polling advantage.

As a result, the Republic can seem somewhat disingenuous as the difference between Bradsworth's and Madders' tactics pry the system apart. No doubt some more high-minded Ting members have expressed concern at the way the SubDirectoral Commission on the Common Welfare and its Office of Enforcement operate – that is, as de facto secret police – but they find that, in complaining to Bradsworth, he has about as much control over the situation as they do. This division will only become more pronounced and more dangerous as war looms over the Republic.

Um, I'm sure people have specific issues they'd like to bring up – such as the title of the thread, I'm open to suggestions! This was only a place-holder. And I'd like to say again how very much I am looking forward to this.

by **Walmington on Sea** » Fri Dec 13, 2013 10:01 am

Oh dear!
For the second time in living memory, Amberland's cinder-block complicates Operation Imperial Tread-Water. It's probably a good job that England just got a little larger, because I suspect that we're going to need the manpower.

As a technical aside, I'll put a rush on the update to Walmingtonian military equipment, particularly as it may pertain to the Shield. One thing I can say is that I've sorted out most of the air-launched ordnance. The RAF now has a relatively straight-forward doctrine on air-to-air combat/arms, as such:

*for point-blank engagement- guns. Possibly in 19mm and 25.4mm calibres deriving ultimately from old Vickers-Maxim cartridges, though whether they're all ADEN cannons or otherwise I've yet to settle.

*for dogfighting just beyond optimal gunnery range- Hawker-Siddeley Taildog infrared-guided short-range air-to-air missile. Appearing in the early '70s, it's a small super-manoeuvrable missile with thrust vectoring, for engaging targets at between 250 and 2,000 metres, suitable for carriage two-per-pylon and for relatively small aircraft such as the Gnat spin-offs.

*for the bulk of imagined air combat- Wychwood-Elliot Rascal infrared-guided Advanced Short-Range Air-to-Air Missile (marketed as ASRAAM). Supposed to offer longer-range and higher speed than the equivalent ((Californian? American?)) Sidewinder even if it be at the expense of some manoeuvrability (partly because the RAF already has the more agile Taildog), for engaging targets out to 50km.

*for longer-range engagement, Elliot Rhubarb radar-guided medium-range air-to-air missile (marketed as Skyflash) and Forced Rhubarb (Active Skyflash) active radar guided medium-range air-to-air missile. Possibly related to a Californian or American AIM-7 Sparrow equivalent. Older versions have a 45km range and so are considered obsolete for service in Europe and America, newer versions incorporate some of the features that would IRL be seen during early development of Meteor which owed at least something to advanced Skyflash proposals, range probably at least 60km as with later PL-10 models.

Probably the Shieldians would have been able to obtain a spin-off of the SRAAM programme that yielded Taildog and would be suitable for its Gnat variants, with its fins placed differently than on the English missiles and different steering technology, and possibly slightly longer range than Taildog but much less than Rascal. Rhubarb (as Skyflash) would probably have been marketed to the Shield, too, though I'm not sure whether it'd be suitable for the tiny swarm-fighters and might have to be carried by... whatever else, instead.

Right, this post was chiefly a tag, nod of interest, and, "before I forget al this technical stuff", so I'll wrap it up, now, and say something more relevant when the rest of the core participants have had their chance.

Ah well, Albrycht, come if you will!

by **Syberea** » Fri Dec 13, 2013 10:48 am

Just making a quick post in acknowledgment and also in thanks, given that this falls directly in line with Syberea's November 30th Mass Mobilization date. (News Centre) Which at the time I had absolutely no reason for other than being slightly crazy. Now I can claim Syberea knew this all along and was preparing well for it. Not that that matters, given Syberea's lack of manpower and oblivious stance on anything but its nuclear arsenal when it comes to military strength.

There's not a great deal that needs to be said for Syberea's involvement in this conflict, considering the fact that Syberea will back Gandvik on every matter under the Sun. That, and, Syberea would like to seize this opportunity to gain a claim on the Aleutian islands, and potentially a few miles of Alaska, just for the hell of it. (The limited military strength of Syberea limits its ambition, so it'd only assume to ever be able to hold onto a few miles of Alaska anyway.)

Technology-wise and strategy-wise, Syberea is an immense nuclear power, given that nuclear arsenals serve as deterrents, Syberea would, likely, have had AMW's most severe need for its nuclear arsenal. A country the size of Syberea, but with as little as 40 million people, stands as a perfect reasoning behind that logic. Now, I'm not looking for any Defcon-like roleplays, so I'd propose that there's a /(potentially secret)/ Treaty or agreement that binds all parties to the use of conventional weaponry only.
Given Syberea's limited 'war goal', I'm assuming that the other parties would treat Syberea just the same- However, if Syberea becomes the subject of mass conquest, Syberea wouldn't shy away from making every belligerent pay the price of conquest by launching its arsenal in random directions. But I'm sure that given the pace of AMW, aswell as the potential consequences of this conflict, that isn't something to really worry about.

Diplomatically-wise, on the other hand, Syberea is still by all means a mediocre power in everything except its nuclear arsenal. Whilst led by not-the-brightest of politicians and autocrat, Syberea will probably listen to almost all offers that other nations propose. If Walmington, for example, comes up with "Hey, Syberea, you can have the Aleutians and a small piece of Alaska if you withdraw from this conflict", Syberea would probably do so, and instead just aid Gandvik economically and through the use of voluntary divisions. (Which, given Syberea's pro-Gandvik stance, would still guarantee a large amount of volunteer soldiers to aid Gandvik.) (The same, however, goes for Gandvik and the other parties, who can offer Syberea whatever they please in a bid for Syberean assistance/compliance.)

All-in-all, Syberea would join this conflict for both its own reasons, aswell as its long-standing friendship/slash/Alliance with Gandvik. Given, however, that it's Gandvian aggression, Syberea reserves its right to withdraw from the conflict for any reason it can give. Not that it's likely to do so.

On another note, I'm not entirely certain of Syberea's technological level on anything but its nuclear arsenal. I'm going to say mid-1980's USSR technology in terms of ground equipment (Due to the Soviet Union's/Russia's MBTs and a lot of its ground fighting vehicles are produced in regions that are in Syberea in AMW), Gandvian technology for air equipment, and a mix of Gandvian-Syberean Naval equipment. (Provided, of course, that TCB allows this.)

by **The Crooked Beat** » Fri Dec 13, 2013 5:13 pm

You know, Walmington, Albrycht/Adalbert (I've been thinking about a more German/Swedish name, as opposed to one that I originally stole from Polish nobility way back when!) might turn out to be one of Gandvik's leading anti-war voices!

On the political front, to expand on Ian's summary, since the admittedly little-explored incapacitation of Gandvik's previous Chancellor, the secret police-associated Mikalous Andres-Kletsk, de facto political leadership has basically passed to the army-gendarmerie bloc, led by the ferociously nationalistic Field Marshal Edmund Kneiphof, more or less by default, although a certain Antero Idman, who I have down as the ex-minister of communications, now technically serves as the acting head of government. Kneiphof and the senior army and police commanders, less field officers than uniformed politicians and bureaucrats, and their sizable right-wing constituency, feel that they have a major score to settle with Ianapalis, after the abortive Weshield intervention and the downright embarrassing attempt to prevent Thortraia's annexation, and a Nibelung commitment to the campaign against Geletia would provide a perfect window of opportunity.

Confrontation with Ianapalis, and by extension most of Europe, is not a strategy that sits well with many inside the ruling class, those who profit from the trade in fuels and natural resources with Europe most prominently, and is also unpopular with certain military leaders as well, who don't relish the idea of a massive clash with Nibelung arms, but that will all become more of an issue later on. Right now, the people in Riga with agenda-setting power believe that prospects for victory are high, and will never be so promising again, so, to quote General Jack T. Ripper, let's get going, there's no other choice. God willing, we will prevail, in peace and freedom from fear, and in true health, through the purity and essence of our natural bodily fluids. God bless you all.

The vision that guides official thinking, as put forward by Kneiphof and others, is one of a relatively short, easy, and limited war, in which a rapid and one-sided victory over the outnumbered and under-gunned Shieldian armed forces all but preempts a meaningful Nibelung intervention, and in a matter of weeks or months, with a distracted Munstra unable or unwilling to dislodge Gandvian armies from their territorial gains, leads to a negotiated settlement on Riga's terms, namely the dismantling of the GFR and the dismemberment of the Shield as a political entity. They figure that, in the domestic arena, a string of comparatively cheap military victories over the ancient enemy will distract people from the privations brought about by a temporary decline in foreign trade, and simultaneously bolster support among nationalist-irredentist elements, while, eventually, even Munstra will have to concede that it needs Gandvian gas and oil more than it needs Bradsworth and his ilk.

Though Walmington would certainly be wise to prepare for the worst, attacks on Amberland or other Walmingtonian territories don't figure into Gandvian planning, as, ideally, Walmingtonian, Valendian, or Byzantine participation on the side of Ianapalis or Munstra would be avoided altogether. Riga would also be keen to contain the war at sea, perhaps promising to leave merchant shipping alone in exchange for similar guarantees protecting North Sea oil rigs. As far as the Gandvian Army is concerned, any offensive move into Central Europe would involve serious difficulties, and Amberland, with most Gandvian divisions in that area deployed to block a Nibelung drive through Thortraia, doesn't strike senior strategists as a practical objective, especially considering how Amberlanders have had centuries to prepare for just such a contingency!

A nuclear exchange, also, is not foreseen, and while Gandvik does maintain a fairly large nuclear stockpile, there's an expectation that any war can be won by conventional means, and that a nuclear first-use would just invite catastrophic Nibelung retaliation. Gandvik also does not intend to use chemical or biological weapons, in large part because senior military commanders view them as ungentlemanly and dishonorable. There may also be a standing policy to reply with tactical nuclear weapons to any chemical or biological attack on Gandvian forces, but I don't know if this really makes much sense, from a plausibility point of view.

Of course, as politicians are inclined to do, Gandvian leaders aren't really thinking about what will happen if things don't go entirely their own way. An unexpectedly slow advance that lets the Hari deploy in corps strength or above east of the Daldan is one such condition. Another, possibly more serious, is the prospect of a long (several months to a year) war, in which trade with Europe collapses and Gandvian field armies face heavy attrition. In short, if Munstra doesn't throw in the towel, politically, within a certain span of time, long-term defeat is, on some level, inevitable.

As for Syberea, while Gandvik simply can't afford to turn down any foreign support, I think there might be some reluctance to include Syberean forces in the initial ground assault. They'd need a while to reach their staging areas, after all, possibly much more time than Riga feels it can wait, while Nibelung intelligence would almost certainly pick up on the westward deployment of a significant Syberean contingent and that might forfeit the element of surprise, to the extent that Gandvik's traditional inability to keep a secret hasn't done so already! Unless they're forward-deployed, of course, but we haven't discussed that before, exactly, and I don't think it would be terribly fair to change the military balance so drastically at this stage of the game. Later on, though, I think Riga would be very enthusiastic about Syberean reinforcements.

On the subject of Syberean arms, there isn't much Gandvian equipment that wouldn't be available to Syberea, although in terms of ground vehicles at least you appear to be pretty much self-sufficient. Gandvik doesn't actually use many RL Russian warships, so most of those should be free for the taking. As for aircraft, I've claimed Sukhoi, Ilyushin, Yakovlev, and Mil for Gandvik, so if you don't mind that those Russian companies have all been renamed, and in many cases have had their product lines reshuffled, anything from any of those works fine too. Otherwise, MiG, Tupolev, and Kamov, to name the primary ones, are as of right now unclaimed. Maybe not one hundred percent on topic, I'll admit, but if we do end up with the sort of conflict that we've been discussing, and Syberea does get involved, it would definitely help to know what we're dealing with in that respect, to say nothing of Syberea's own administrative concerns.

Anyway, I don't think I've said anything particularly new or informative, or at least that Ian and Cass haven't heard already via TG. My thanks to Ian for starting the discussion, at least, and I'm sure there's a great deal more of that on the horizon.

by **Iansisle** » Thu Dec 19, 2013 12:02 pm

A brief tangent, away from Europe: I don't intend California to become entangled in this conflict, due to a combination of antagonism with the Gulf States, fear of casualties, and general pacifism / non-interventionism. Also, I don't think that it's entirely fair to end up with two states on the same side, as it would most likely intervene on the Niblo-Shieldian side. However, the occupation of American Walmington, even if just a few islands, would likely bring strong condemnation from Presidio Hill and support for Walmington, at the very least in the air.

by **The Crooked Beat** » Sat Dec 21, 2013 4:54 pm

The prospect of Californian non-involvement is definitely good news from Riga's perspective, given how the small force of Nibelung stealth bombers will likely turn out to be more than enough of an inconvenience by itself, without something like the B-2, which has ten times the payload, showing up!

I'm certainly not averse to things becoming more difficult for Gandvik, though, and I'd imagine that the nightly destruction of bridges and supply dumps by an undetectable aircraft would act as a considerable demoralizing factor. At the very least, I don't think it would be out of order for the GFR to acquire a few drones at some point, along with a generous supply of AGM-114s.

Regarding Colonel Ranalte, a few scenarios spring to mind which could see him attain some important successes against a Gandvian invading force, especially considering how, even after the Rutters encounter, most senior Gandvian generals still don't take the GFR and its military at all seriously, and expect most Shieldian soldiers to cut and run the moment they're brought under concerted attack.

One option might be to say that Ranalte's command has been equipped with those new TS-12-720s, a pre-production batch at least, which would place it on a more equal footing with Gandvian armor. Even if the new tank isn't quite up to the same standard, in terms of armor or various other equipment, as the Pav.84, if it has a 120mm Rheinmetall gun or something comparable it should be able to knock-out Gandvik's front-line MBT at normal combat ranges. The first thing Gandvian tankers will probably think when they find themselves under effective enemy fire is that they've been attacked by Fafnir 2s, a conclusion made all the more worrying because it might point, in Gandvian minds, to the existence of an unknown Nibelung division in the Shield, and they'll probably move forward with a great deal more caution in any case. This might also be a situation where intelligence reports received earlier on the TS-12-720 project's slow progress, if I'm remembering the news post correctly, have confirmed Gandvian generals' dim view of Shieldian industry, and have prompted them to discount subsequent reports indicating otherwise.

The subsequent delay could easily allow a Shieldian force to escape encirclement, or to defend some terrain feature or site that would have been abandoned, or something to that effect.

The Gandvian army also plans to launch a fairly extensive airborne effort as part of its general offensive into the Shield, using both parachute and helicopter-borne forces that together add up to one division, two independent regiments, and three or four independent battalions, and Ranalte could be on the scene to frustrate one or several Gandvian landings. Gandvian commanders see air assault operations as one way to achieve their required rapid victory over the GFR, and believe that the poorly-trained and unmotivated stereotypical Shieldian soldier is uniquely susceptible to attack by elite troops from unexpected directions.

Primary tasks for Gandvian air assault forces would be the seizure of bridges over the Desna and Seym rivers, while I've been thinking that the Gandvian airborne division might be landed as far south as Rutters or Rockfurth (?), to block communications across the Dnieper and encourage Shieldian forces east of the river to retreat south more emphatically. So I suppose it depends on where you'd like Ranalte to be. Maybe he's leading a mobile reserve, ready to rush in and save a struggling sector, and ends-up being called upon to reduce the Gandvian parachute landings on the Daldan, or is further north, somewhere along the Desna or Seym, where a Gandvian air assault regiment, setting-down with every expectation of routing the Shieldian defenders, suddenly finds itself under determined attack by the GFR's best brigade?

And there's every reason to have Ranalte involved in several different actions, too.

I'll hold off on discussing the broader Gandvian war plan for now, but if you think of something else, don't hesitate to say so!

by **Amerique** » Sun Dec 22, 2013 1:33 am

The American Republic would be sure to respond to any move by Syberea into the Aleutian islands or anywhere in Alaska, widely viewed as part of the American continent. Despite the problematic issue of large swaths of mainland North America still being under the rule of European imperialists, they are nonetheless lukewarm enemies-turned-allies. While the Grand Republics of America wishes to stay away from any and all European affairs and wars since the Great War, the American Republics do see themselves as the protectors of the Americas and its sphere of influence and self-determination and would oppose any move by yet another non-American power (such as Syberea) to expand into the New World so the issue would likely be met with some kind of expeditionary force or display of power in the Pacific.

That being said, America is likely to stay out of any war with Gandvik and may even continue trade and business with this enemy of the majority of the 'Free World', which may draw some ire from the likes of Nibelunc and Walmington but is the result of the increasing discomfort with the recent use of nuclear weapons against Areopagitican and fears of a continuation of said policy in Gandvik. Some kind of statement in support of the avoidance of nuclear weaponry in the war would probably be issued by the State Department of the Republics.

In conclusion, we support Walmington in case of Syberean attack but are hesitant to get involved in Europe one way or the other.

by **Syberea** » Thu Dec 26, 2013 6:02 pm

I'd suppose this would call for me to finally make up my mind concerning the Syberean armament, so I'll just scribble down a bunch of names and numbers here. I'd appreciate feedback in case something feels out of place, although I don't intend to mess up too much.

Syberean Airforce, (Officially "Black Tsarist Air Flotilla", although even by the Sybereans themselves just called 'Airforce' because nobody remembers who came up with the official name, and why.)

<Domestic Aircraft>

-MiG-29S- 260
-MiG-29M- 142
-MiG-29K- 20

Tupolev Tu-160- 14

Gandvian-produced aircraft. Numbers unknown.

Numbering a total of 50.000 personnel, relatively small compared to the other two branches (Navy & Army)

Syberean Navy

-Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier- 2 (The flagship bearing the Tsaritsa's name)
-Kirov-class battlecruiser- 5
-Sierra class nuclear submarine - 7
-Delta class submarine - 39
-Kilo class submarine - 48
-Slava class cruiser - 4
-Kara-class cruiser - 5
-Parchim class corvette - 14
-Nanuchka class corvette -12
-Tarantul class corvette - 4
-Grisha class corvette - 9
-Ropucha-class landing ship - 19
-Krivak-class frigate - 34
-Kashin-class destroyer - 18

Numbering a total of 170,000 personnel.

Syberean Army

I still have to sit this over as of now, although consider the Soviet Army's 1980-1990 equipment as the 'standard'.

Numbering a potential number of 4 million soldiers (~400,000 active, ~3,600,000 'Reserve'). In the event of war, it is highly unlikely that the reservists will see action, unless an invasion of the Syberean homeland occurs, in which case, the numbers will most likely swell far higher than 4 million due to the extremely nationalist doctrine that Syberea enforces over its citizens, inspiring patriotism before all else. (If only I could write great posts of the 17th Elderly Syberean Guard. Imagine the 60+ year old grandpas and grandmas, armed to the teeth with RPGs and hip-replacements.)

Syberean Special Forces, (Sybir' voyska spetsialnogo naznacheniya)

One division (Three Regiments numbering five-thousand each.)
Considered Syberea's most elite troops, hand-picked from potentially the most lethal training course and selection programme on the planet. Should be capable of matching anything they're up against and come out on top. Casualties will however be impossible to replace on short-term.
These troops are most likely to be the ones sent to aid the Gandvian war effort, as they're the most easily mobilized and prepared for all-out war.

by **Chemaki** » Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:49 pm

I know I don't usually participate in any affairs outside of my own little sphere within the Middle East, but the breakup of the Shield, and the following conflict between Byzantium and Depkazia over Gallaga, has piqued the FIS' interest. Taking a stance of armed neutrality in a bid to stop relations in the Middle East deteriorating any further, the Samartians plan to openly support the socialist government there and recognize the country's sovereignty. In the future this may led to the FIS basing troops in the region in an attempt to dissuade both Chingiz and the Byzantines and also bring peace to the region.

Obviously this proposal is still rather far-off, but secret promises to the Gallagan government from FIS diplomats do mean that the States may be pulled into the war if open conflict spills over into Gallaga again. Which side the FIS would enter such a conflict on is unknown - Having longstanding diplomatic ties with both Depkazia and Byzantium, as well as a checkered past with both, it's understandable that the government is very tentative about any aggressive action. However; a promise is a promise, and with the ex-Shieldian state being the only other Islamic Socialist nation, there is huge public support within the FIS for keeping Gallaga safe and secure.

by **Cassanos** » Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:24 pm

Thaaat... Took longer than expected. Still, I hope it's comprehensive as well as comprehensible, and shows Nibelunc's strenghts and weaknesses reasonably well.

Alright, the Christmas volunteer work is done, I stuffed my face with a load of awesome food and drink and repeated that process for New Year's - it's spare time... Er... Time! Yes.

Diplomacy
Nibelunc would very much like to prevent another engagement with Gandvian forces and the diplomatic ramifications it would bring. After narrowly averting large-scale clashes twice, the prevailing view in Munstra is that Gandvik has accepted the changed balance of power in eastern Europe and will not initiate another conflict. Testing the limits of Nibelung forbearance, yes, but they have backed down twice already - they surely won't attack the GFR when Nibelunc is obligated to intervene, will they?
While Munstra will keep a wary eye on their big rival to the northeast, it is generally assumed that they will keep quiet in the event of a war between the western powers and Beddgelert, and if need be, they can be intimidated by a display of martial power and diplomatic pressure from Nibelunc and, quite possibly, Walmington.
In terms of allies, Rome and Ionia will be occupied with Beddgelert and the GFR will be hard-pressed to hold a Gandvian advance. Valendia's position appears to be uncertain, while Walmingtonian support is likely. California will be asked for economic support, at least.

Internal Politics
Ahler himself does not necessarily share this hawkish sentiment, but he will ask the Ting to declare a state of international tension (Spannungsfall) a few days before the Roman ultimatum on Akink runs out, the military effects of which are described below. The political ramifications, however, are a much more immediate problem to the government's stability. On the one hand, the pacifist faction in the coalition has only grudgingly accepted military action in the Gull Flag crisis and the Areopagite war. While the use of nuclear weapons is not nearly seen as as unthinkably vile in AMW as it is in real life, since no cities have ever been attacked with nukes, nor is there a real spectre of total annihilation, the detonation of two low-yield tactical devices in North Africa has not endeared Ahler to the doves in his own government, which enjoy significant public support. An overseas war is also, of course, much easier to stomach than a war with a significant power right on one's doorstep, even though the revelations about Geletian conduct in former Tsalland will make the populace more willing to support an intervention - at least until they realise that such a war would mean full territorial mobilisation and wartime rationing, especially of fuels.
Now, Ahler will couple the request for declaration of the Spannungsfall with a vote of confidence in his own government to force the dissenters into line. A very risky move which, regardless of the possible military conflicts it forebodes, will either make or break Ahler's power. It is certain that both Riga and Akink are aware of this, which should serve as another incentive for Gandvik to strike now, hoping that a more isolationist government will replace Ahler's during or after the war.
Ahler and his cabinet are also aware of this, but with a genocide on the one hand and a war of aggression against an ally on the other, there is really no other viable option they can see.

Economy
Nibelunc weathered the last crisis with Gandvik (also during the winter) by replacing Gandvian deliveries of gas and crude oil with Byzantine and Arabian fuels. This led to an increase in prices, but the situation remained manageable, with some to spare for increased military fuel reserves and rerouting into the Shield.
If Gandvik attacks during a conflict with Beddgelert, the deliveries from North Africa and Arabia/Byzantium will probably be hampered. Should Nibelunc also lose Gandvian, Syberean and possibly Depkazi fossil fuels, this would hit the economy hard. The government maintains a freshly increased reserve stockpile of fuels and crude oil (some 90 days for the military, some 30-60 days for the civilian sector, not counting private reserves within logistics and chemical companies). In the event of war, the military would be prioritised along with heating and energy production for the general populace, followed by heavy industries. Private civilian transport would be greatly reduced within ten to fourteen days and would almost stop after a month or so.
This, coupled with the loss of vital raw materials from Syberea and Gandvik, would force Munstra to conclude the war quickly or face a significant economic turn-down.

Intelligence
Nibelunc's civilian and military intelligence is mostly geared towards Beddgelert and Gandvik, in that order. With the Roman ultimatum, assets such as signals and satellite surveillance would be shifted towards the Saimonas, which would make concealing the Gandvian mobilisation that much easier. The Northeast departments of the BND and MAD would still be watching Gandvik closely, though, along with whatever signals and human intelligence TCB is willing to arrive in Munstra. The prevailing view is that Gandvik would need at least a week for a significant mobilisation, with two to three days of overt preparations - whether that assessment is accurate remains to be seen. If sources within the Gandvian government manage to get reports out, or if enough people (maybe with relatives in the military) inform Munstra of small things like cancelled leave, call-up of reserves or shortages of certain goods, Nibelung intelligence might wisen up in time.

Military
Ah, my favourite topic.
Generally speaking, the Heerbann is in a worse situation to deal with a major European war than it was two years ago, since the Hari has become spread-out and has lost several divisions which are in the process of disbanding. Before the Roman ultimatum runs out, Ahler will have ordered the reinforcement of the brigade-sized force in Ionia to a division-size grouping. The declaration of the Spannungsfall transfers command authority from Minister of Defence Peter Hambacher to the Alderman and allows for the mobilisation of reserves and other emergency measures without formal consultation of the Ting.
Another couple of battalions are stationed in Areopagitican. The reduction in the number of active formations has also allowed Nibelunc to pre-position a reinforced division's worth of equipment around Marbleston (Zhytomyr), close to Dunston air field, which has been turned into a major air base ready to field about two wings of aircraft, most of which can use protected shelters.
Finally, all personnel, equipment and munitions lost or expended in the Areopagite war have been replaced.

Map of the Marbleston area.

Aerial view of Dunston Field.

The Nibelung army is ready to airlift personnell to the bases around Marbleston, which will likely begin after the declaration of the Spannungsfall to deter Gandvian action. Four mechanised brigades, about 40 combat aircraft and possibly an airmobile battalion or two will be ready around Marbleston within about three days, especially if civilian aircraft are requisitioned for additional airlift capacity. The 9th Panzer Division, reinforced with the 7th Panzeraufklärungs Brigade, would assume a defensive posture along the M07 and the vital crossroads west of Fennfield. The Hari also has about three divisions of the II. and III. Korps in Thortraia. Following the latest clashes, there have been repeated drills and efforts to coordinate with Shieldian forces in the area. They are exceptionally well prepared for another Gandvian drive into Thortraia, with prepared fighting positions, distance markers and pre-planned artillery fire missions, but there are only a few contingency plans for offensive operations or redeployment into the GFR. In the first days of a war with Beddgelert and Gandvik, the II. and III. Korps with five reinforced divisions would be available for action in the Gandvian theatre, while the II. and IV. Korps would operate in the Beddgellen area. The I. Korps in Frisia and the VI. Korps in Suabinc would be serve as strategic reserves, together with one Airmobile and one Fallschirmjäger division, parts of which are earmarked for Ionia.

The Luftwaffe is, by nature, able to react very quickly to emerging threats, but it would need to split its assets between operations in the Saimonas, Gandvik, the GFR and homeland defence. This is made even harder by the need to keep a portion of its strike aircraft in reserve for a possible nuclear role. In the event of mobilisation, it would disperse to a large number of civilian and emergency air strips to reduce its vulnerability.
The Luftwaffe and light Hari and Bundesmarine units would be employed to expand the scope of a war into the whole North and Baltic Sea area.

The Bundesmarine's larger vessels are far from their home waters, with two LPDs in the Mediterranean, while another is currently on a training mission in the North Sea. The twelve Nibelung frigates and several mine warfare vessels are also mostly in the Meditarranean. Significant numbers of Nibelung submarines and FACs, along with minelayers, are available for operations in the North and Baltic Seas, as well as the majority of the Marineflieger's strike and surveillance aircraft. The newly-formed amphibious group is largely deployed to the Mediterranean for training with Valendian and Roman forces.

Nibelunc's tactical rocket and missile troops have re-stocked their munitions, though a large-scale use of long-range missiles against Gandvik might not be considered wise since it might be seen as a first strike with WMDs. The strategic forces are kept on high alert.
A quick word about WMDs: Past events have shown Nibelunc would not refrain from the use of nuclear or chemical weapons, though it has used them only in retaliation against similar attacks. Gas attacks have been answered with Nibelung chemical strikes, while the use of biological weapons has led to nuclear release. Nibelunc will not hesitate to retaliate against military targets, but will not initiate nuclear warfare unless an existential threat manifests itself. It is uncertain whether imminent collapse of the GFR could be considered an existential threat.

Finally, Nibelunc will mobilise some reserves along its southeastern borders. Nevertheless, the focus on Beddgelert would hamper mobilisation in the rest of Nibelunc, since transport and supplies would be concentrated in the southeast. In theory, full mobilisation of its 1.5-2 million reservists can be accomplished within about four to five days, which would mean activation of 39 reserve brigades, as well as some 60 regiments and numerous smaller support, signals, medical, air defence and security units.
Well, the Geletians call it the Army Country, what did you expect?

by **Beddgelert** » Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:20 pm

I think the deadline has come and gone. Rome went all-in, Chivo cocked an eyebrow, called, and Rome said, "Ah, shit, I've got nothing."

Economically, I imagine that Geletia mostly needs certain high-tech machinery from abroad, in no small part from Nibelunc (more-so perhaps from Valendia and, increasingly, Gandvik), along with a few rare minerals that we lack in abundance. Chivo's been turning much of the Durcodi plain into a giant grain farm, but that is, of course, vulnerable to Nibelung and to a lesser degree Roman combined arms. Boii lignite, along with the various rivers of Geletia, solar plants near each coast, and increasing gas and to a lesser degree oil finds in Brigantia and elsewhere are helpful, and war reserves of fuel and munitions are world class, perhaps greater than those of most developed nations, in part because the Geletians are comparatively accustomed to some degree of deprivation and unlikely to question stockpiling in time of shortage. Equally, most of Geletia's major military facilities are buried in the myriad mountains of the Saimonas, along with much of its strategically-significant heavy industry. Since the Short War, even power-lines have been insulated to protect them from the sort of attacks we launched against the Tsag. The experience of round-the-clock strategic bombing meted out to Geletia during the late stages of the Great War by WoS and California (and possibly America, Byzantium, and Gandvik) has been written onto the nation's collective memory... but unlike Germany IRL, Geletia hasn't become placid and part of the international fold, we're more like Germany after the first big war, only we've waited longer to recover.

The Western Front (1/3rd of Geletia's military) is fully mobilised at present, much of it in Dubeanach (Tsagija). Around 600,000 personnel are currently active in total, with almost two million in reserve. 150,000 personnel are rotating tours of Dubeanach, meaning a high degree of experience with at least low-intensity warfare, while hundreds of thousands more (including some now retired to the reserves) have limited experience of the lightning war on Tsalland.

Chivo wields almost absolute power, but this is a new situation. Some of the Geletian priesthood support him, believing that he is trying to restore the Triarchy, others are sceptical and view him as a foreign-style one-man dictator. Cornitoutia (Turkish Thrace outside of Istanbul, and effectively if not officially Greek Thrace as well) is practically independent at this time, and its militia has fought a deadly pitched battle with federal/imperial security forces. There's some question as to morale in national forces after that defeat and the question of whether some of the personnel who were content federal-republicans are actually keen on the new imperial system or not. Siluria (more or less Transylvania) is almost split in half by those who support the Communists and those who either support Chivo for what he is or for what they desperately want him to be (re. the restoration of the Triarchy).

Essentially, there are in Geletia those who want Full Communism Nao!, those who support Chivo because they hope that he's going to take Geletia back to a spiritualist, tribal Triarchy as existed before Celert and Llewellyn, and those who support Chivo because he's a hard man with friends in the intelligence and military services who owe him their personal allegiance.

The deployment of more foreign forces to Ionia (Aoiríchósta, as the Geletians call it) will be an issue. If Nibelunc tries to reinforce its position to divisional strength, it's likely that Chivo will start ordering warships to challenge foreign vessels in the Adriatic and fighters to at least shadow transports on the edge of Geletian airspace. More mechanised forces will likely be moved into Dubeanach in answer to reinforced international forces, with striking forces refocussed towards the north and Celea (Lapolis, Celje).

by **Cassanos** » Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:58 am

Before we continue discussions - what if Rome does back down? Would Gandvik still go forward with this plan? Would Beddgelert think "well, mobilised armies are like firecrackers - no fun if just sitting around" and consider an attack of their own?
Should the Roman-Beddgellen war fail to materialise, I suppose nothing much would change - true, Nibelunc would not go to war with Beddgelert over the tiny border they share, but would have to keep significant forces available to deter Beddgellen aggression. Either way, Munstra's attention would be on the southeast, not the northeast.

Frankly, I would hate to lose an opportunity for an extremely interesting RP which might well shake AMW up both IC and OOC.

by **The Crooked Beat** » Fri Jan 03, 2014 3:34 pm

A much larger post in the works, but to briefly address the point that Cass just raised, I think we could still move forward with a Shieldian-Nibelung-Gandvian conflict, even if the Romans did decide to fold on the Tsalland question. Granted, it would make things a lot easier for Gandvik if Munstra found itself heavily committed against the Geletians, but Riga might still be fairly confident in its overall chances even if it stands to face almost the Hari's full strength. The Gandvians believe that they can hold-back the Nibelung military in a defensively-oriented campaign, at least up to a certain attritional threshold, and the thinking behind Riga's plan of attack is that considerations of time and distance will still prevent Nibelung forces from arriving in time to stop the Gandvian Army from taking-over a good portion of Weshield and Shadoran, and Vess too if that's a province as well as a city, and provided I haven't completely mixed things up in that respect.

Without the opportunistic angle to fall back on, though, a provocation, or series of provocations, will probably become more important, though I think there are elements in both Gandvian and Gull Flag military-intelligence establishments who are more than eager to supply the necessary incidents. I'm thinking that one way to go might revolve around a major attack on an Editraequan Army base, where some Gandvian advisers are killed, coupled with heightened cross-border infiltration and guerrilla attacks on Todd Andrews' regime, plus maybe a bombing or two in Gandvik proper.

Anyway, while it would undoubtedly change the strategic balance, and definitely reduce the scale of any prospective conflict, even if we lose the Roman-Geletian side of things I think a major war is still possible.

That said, I very much hope we're able to continue with the Saimonas crisis in some fashion, all-out war or not!

by **Cassanos** » Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:40 pm

I think we could definitely work with that, if Ian and yourself can hash out the details.
The Heerbann would still need to maintain a significant reserve in case Akink got aggressive after the Roman provocation or the Romans decided to act themselves in the end. Nibelunc alone would definitely need much more time to prepare taking on Beddgelert on its own, anyway, and by that time, Gandvik would likely have already made its move.
Anyway, good to know that the war is not postponed

.

by **Syberea** » Sat Jan 04, 2014 12:53 am

First up, massive kudos and thanks to TBC for making me aware that I might not have said everything in regards to Syberea's military strength, equipment & numbers, so I'll make a quick post here so the other powerful navies of the world can go "...Yeah, Syberea, they have numbers, shame for them that those numbers are made up entirely of rusty piles of scrap that would sink on their own, we don't even have to fight them to destroy it."

As TBC made me aware, Syberea's Navy and Airforce might have numbers that are exponentially large in relation to Syberea's 40-million population, even though it's a relatively rich (By Eastern standards) nation.

In my original post I didn't really say this, I think, but I went with the same guideline as to how the Russian Federation in the mid 90's was looking at its equipment. Namely;

"We've got a giant bulk of equipment. Shame that only 40% of it is actually serviceable."

With this, I mean to say that Syberea's numbers in terms of its military might be large, but due to budget constraints, the numbers might be there, but of that, only about half of its force has equipment that is considered fit-for-war. Especially when it comes to the Syberean Navy, which might look strong on paper, but in reality is spread very thin and is facing more problems with its budget and serviceable equipment, leave alone being prepared for a war.

I won't adapt the numbers, but I'll give a good, reasonable explanation for Syberea's large military;
It's huge. It also still covers Lake Baikal, even though making the trip back to the Arctic Sea would take months. Syberea is almost 10% of Earth's land surface, and it has to cover the Arctic and the Pacific Ocean, with limited support for the Atlantic when/if Gandvik asks for it.

Syberea's airforce is also not very well maintained. Of the ~500 aircraft in active service, only about 290 are serviceable (Of which about 100 are permanently loaned to the Navy). The aircraft that aren't would require extensive maintainance, and, in lack of there being a reason for it, the Syberean military considers it a low priority due to the relative safety of its borders with ally Gandvik & friendly Depkazia.

When it comes to defensive wars, Syberea will most likely survive any onslaught of any nation, thanks to the Tundra & Taiga of the Syberean homeland, and the expected time for the update for its equipment. When it comes to offensive wars, however, Syberea lacks both the modern equipment, the home advantage, the numbers and the logistics. If Syberea were to actually go on with its plan to make a stand for the Aleutian islands and a piece of Alaska, it's likely to hurt itself so badly that it won't even require a large Walmingtonian force to stop them.

Again, the numbers might be there, but the logistics, budget, maintenance & respectable age isn't really there for Syberea.

Quick edit as I forgot to mention this; The main driving force behind me staying with the numbers is so I can make a cheesy post somewhere about how a naval squadron manages to sink all of its ships without any foreign interference.

On another note;

Can Syberea make a claim on Sean Connery to be its Fleet Admiral?

by **Chemaki** » Sat Jan 04, 2014 5:43 am

Oh wow, things got detailed really quickly! I guess it wouldn't hurt to elaborate on the FIS' current position, then.

Diplomacy
Owing to its rather 'black sheep' nature as the only Eurasian Islamic state not run by Chingiz, foreign relations between the FIS and all other parties in the war are rather distant and somewhat strained. As the only other nation exploiting massive natural gas reserves, Gandvik is an economic rival and President Dagarzai is keen to villify Riga in return for increased trade with European powers, particularly Niebulunc. However, the rather sticky situation Dagarzai's cabinet finds himself in is that although a victory against Gandvik would help assert the FIS' military power, strengthen its trade and appease the baying pan-Islamist public, Riga's motives for invasion coincide perfectly with the foreign agenda of the States'. Regardless of what happens in the Shield (regarded by the FIS with hostility as a result of historical Depkazi-Shieldian tensions), the cabinet unanimously agrees that the FIS should protect the fledgeling state of Gallaga in the hopes of gaining a strong ally in the Middle East. Although attempts to reconcile its two 'friends', Byzantium and Chingiz, have failed horrendously and conflicts still pepper the south of Gallaga.

Extremely tentative to not inflame tensions in the south, the FIS is planning to bolster Gallagan defense in St. Gabriel in what Dagarzai regards as 'peacekeeping' whilst the Shield would perceive as an open act of hostility. Desperate to keep some image of neutrality, the Samartian government promises to defend Gallagan sovereignty against any foreign invader, including a potentially hungry Gandvik who could want access to the Caspian Sea. Troop movements would be conducted via the FIS' close friend Depkazia, but the geopolitical distance between Gallaga and Samartia would prevent any major logistical commitment.

Military
Not to mention; the military of the FIS are not trained in offensive warfare, and historical military doctrine has always favoured a domestic battlefield. Current plans surrounding conflict in Gallaga rely on a trained force of 20,000 of Samartia's finest to act as a deterrent, whilst increased recruitment drives boost National Guard numbers to replace the leaving soldiers. Constrained by its lack of a naval prescence in the Caspian, any military presence would have to be established within Gallaga if the region is to have a reliable defense. Dagarzai hopes that immediate military action following a Gandvian invasion would mean that the FIS military could establish itself before any hostile forces converged on the lower Volga. With air superiority almost non-existant, and little expectation that a foolish Gandvik or desperate Shield would try to go toe-to-toe with an armed Gallaga, the troops would be relying on the local military and a slew of deployed MRBMs for support. Infantry, although well-equipped (most are armed with relatively modern INSAS rifles or Khaybars, and cutting-edge anti-tank rifles are commonly used against armored vehicles) and well-supported (200 Zulquifars, 500 Sayyads, and 500 Boraghs are ready to be dedicated to the mission), are poorly-trained in fighting organized militaries, and under the brunt of a full Gandvian invasion, are planned to crumble and act as guerillas until any foreign troops in Gallaga are expelled. Out of the 150,000 active and 600,000 reserve troops of the Samartian Army, around 200,000 are available to reinforce the military in Gallaga if shit hits the fan in a spectacular way, but the bulk of the military around the Volga will rely on a quarter of a million 'home-grown' Gallagan separatist troops, armed by the FIS.

by **Beddgelert** » Sat Jan 04, 2014 9:56 am

The prospect of war involving Geletia are still pretty high, I'd say, even if Rome doesn't really want it and Chivo doesn't particularly want to fight anyone but the Tsag, either.

A Cartreflu unit -settler militias in Dubeanach- has challenged the interpretation of the border within what used to be Tsalland, occupying parts of what was the largest airbase in the Grand Duchy and has been abandoned, straddling the hurriedly drawn line through the old state. They've apparently done this without Akink's say-so, and perhaps even without Celea's, but the end result is that Ionians or international personnel venturing on to the grounds of the old base are now at risk of coming under sniper fire from Geletians.

Frankly, if Riga's been waiting for Chivo to go to war with Rome and by extension Nibelunc and possibly Walmington, Akink's been doing much the same re. Gandvik and Nibelunc. I think Chivo's only realistic hope for unifying the Saimonas under his rule lies in Ionia being written off as relatively insignificant next to the fate of the Shield, and the defeat/evacuation of a few thousand peacekeepers nothing compared with the likely deaths of tens of thousands on the Gandvian front. None of which would actually be a great deal of help to Riga!

by **Iansisle** » Sat Jan 04, 2014 11:37 am

The Crooked Beat wrote:Without the opportunistic angle to fall back on, though, a provocation, or series of provocations, will probably become more important, though I think there are elements in both Gandvian and Gull Flag military-intelligence establishments who are more than eager to supply the necessary incidents. I'm thinking that one way to go might revolve around a major attack on an Editraequan Army base, where some Gandvian advisers are killed, coupled with heightened cross-border infiltration and guerrilla attacks on Todd Andrews' regime, plus maybe a bombing or two in Gandvik proper.

This would work for me, in one form or another. The MIO could well end up with "advisers" helping a Catholic militia attack [target of opportunity] only to end up captured and traced back to the GFR. After all, the Gull intelligence service have plenty of ambition and enthusiasm, but very little training or know-how. And there's the matter of the agent who pretends to be a priest and skitters across Editraequan convincing women to blow themselves up in churches. And the widescale smuggling of equipment and ammunition into the country. And that former king and his crippled son hiding out near the Shield's first nuclear reactor, being tracked down by both the COE and the Gandvians. I'm sure we can find a spark somewhere.

The best part is that the military isn't even telling most of this to the foreign office, so we can honestly deny everything when those sanctimonious Nibs raise their eyebrows!

On a geographical note, Vess (the province/kingdom) was deleted in a reorganization some years back. Vess was just a smaller, shittier version of Shadoran and got cut for being redundant along with Mansbar, which was a smaller, shittier version of the Javian Kingdom. Vess (the city, Kharkiv) is still a major industrial center in Shadoran which is troublingly close to the Editraequan border.

BG, on the note of Geletians who want Full Communism Nao!, I haven't said as much, but I'd like to imagine that Anne Marken and some few of the Wyclyfian Igovians escaped from Kezo and, one way or another, have made their way to join the revolutionaries in Cornitoutia. She does speak a fluent (if accented) Geletian and I imagine her as resourceful enough to make the journey alone if necessary.

Cass, as always your attention to detail is boggling and leaves me feeling slightly inadequate! My mind starts to fog over whenever I think of military strategy in that sort of detail. If I make any bone-headed mistakes during our upcoming war, you'll have to forgive me / blame it on the inexperienced Republic! I'm fine thinking of general ideas, but actually implementing them is another deal.

California would be willing to participate in any economic or diplomatic sanctions leveled against Geletia now or Gandvik once the war starts, but is unlikely to commit to any military action unless North America is threatened or the Gulfers start acting up. Just as there are for Geletia, there are bad memories on our side of the bombing campaign over the Triarchy (alas, Joesph Heller is from Amerique =/ ). There was also presumably some sort of incident in the 1980s where a Californian Amapola was shot down somewhere over Geletia for ...some reason. Mostly so that people could stand on it and take pictures and BG could mock me about it over IRC, I suppose. Anyway, it is unlikely that California would be willing to risk its pilots or expensive toys over Geletia without a damn good reason. Maybe if the war starts going poorly enough for the western allies, it might be roused, but certainly not in the early days.

by **Cassanos** » Thu Jan 09, 2014 2:03 am

First of all, I gave the issue of Nibelung troops in Ionia some thought, and I think that I'll increase the initial number of Hari units while reducing the reinforcements. I'd say that there are only about two reinforced combat battalions there, with an additional two engineer, two military police (Feldjäger), one army aviation, one supply and maintenance and one signals battalion. Those would assist Ionian police and military forces as well as the rebuilding of the country. The reinforcements would likely be about three combat battalions strong. Maybe throw in a flight of two of fighters for air policing duties.
Also, if you guys are okay with it, I'll draw up a small-ish Ionian military force which I would want to command in the event of war if no-one else wants to.

Iansisle wrote:California would be willing to participate in any economic or diplomatic sanctions leveled against Geletia now or Gandvik once the war starts, but is unlikely to commit to any military action unless North America is threatened or the Gulfers start acting up. Just as there are for Geletia, there are bad memories on our side of the bombing campaign over the Triarchy (alas, Joesph Heller is from Amerique =/ ). There was also presumably some sort of incident in the 1980s where a Californian Amapola was shot down somewhere over Geletia for ...some reason. Mostly so that people could stand on it and take pictures and BG could mock me about it over IRC, I suppose. Anyway, it is unlikely that California would be willing to risk its pilots or expensive toys over Geletia without a damn good reason. Maybe if the war starts going poorly enough for the western allies, it might be roused, but certainly not in the early days.

That seems quite reasonable. Nibelunc would, however, ask California for economic assistance, mainly in the form of certain equipment and raw materials traded by way of Californian ships, ports and firms. Munstra is quite willing to pay somewhat inflated prices, too

.
Also, would California be willing to - clandestinely - supply Nibelunc with certain munitions which might have been developed jointly?

Oh, and this:

Iansisle wrote:Cass, as always your attention to detail is boggling and leaves me feeling slightly inadequate!

I'm certain there's a "that's what she said" joke in there somewhere...

by **Syberea** » Thu Jan 09, 2014 8:23 am

Syberean Battle Plan for the coming conflict is as follows;

The Syberean Navy, whilst numerically superior to most other navies in the world, is incapable of dominating more than anything but the home waters of Syberea. Of the 5 Kirov-class battlecruisers, two are operational, one is currently undergoing extensive maintenance and is in the process of being upgraded and updated, and the remaining 2 are expected to remain in drydock until at least 2020, after a 2003 report disclosed information that numerous Syberean vessels were flawed in such a way that they would require to be mostly disassembled and rebuilt.
The Novosibirskr, sistership of Syberea's flagship, the 'Tsaritsa Sintiya I' aircraft carrier, has been reported to be in the process of being scrapped, after having been last reported to be seen in 2008. If war were to break out, it would potentially take up to 15 years to make her seaworthy again.
The rest of the vessels appear to be in relatively good shape, with the exception of Syberea's submarine flotilla, of which only 14 vessels have actually been reported as currently in active service. (2 Sierra class, 7 Kilo class, 5 Delta class). 2 Sierra class submarines are currently undergoing minor maintenance, and 8 Delta class submarines & 11 Kilo class submarines are undergoing extensive testing. The remaining 30 Kilo, 26 Delta and 3 Sierra class submarines are reported to be either unfit for service or undergoing maintenance in timeframes ranging from 2 to 25 years. It's expected that, if war breaks out, only a very limited number of the vessels not in active service to be rushed into active service.

(The problems for all vessels not on active duty range from hardware failure to breached hulls.)

The plan for the Syberean Navy is to protect the Syberean waters and challenge Western naval dominance in whatever way is possible. Limited naval support will also be offered to the Gandvian campaign, albeit with the Gandvian Navy's active-service vessels, it remains to be seen whether the Gandvian High Command would have use for the Syberean Naval armada's aid.
With this tactic in mind, Syberea will push to also challenge the Walmingtonian Naval presence in the Pacific, if Walmington proves to enter the Western Allies' side in the war to come. If Walmington indeed enters the war, Syberea will start to devise a strategy for the conquest of Western Alaska, should the war in the West prove to be going well for the Gandvians. (Read: Syberea will probably threaten North America simply by sending out its Navy onto the Pacific, which, if I read it right, would mean California would be somewhat pushed towards an entrance to the war..)

The plan for the Syberean Airforce is to simply provide logistical, economic and potentially military support for the Gandvian war effort, should they require it.

The plan for the Syberean Army is to remain on high alert, and providing recommendations to its fighting force to volunteer to the Syberean Expeditionary Force, which will offer its aid to the Gandvian war effort, at the disposal of the Gandvian Command.

Last but not least; The Syberean Special Forces will be deployed to act independently of the Expeditionary Force, in the effort to challenge and/or prepare for the Special Forces of the Western allies. Meanwhile, the Syberean Nuclear Detachement will be completely mobilized and ready to retaliate to any threat that Syberea considers major enough. Whilst Syberea will never be seek to be the one to mark the beginning of a nuclear war, Syberea will not sit idle while its population suffers, which could mark a justification for the use of its arsenal. Syberea, however, does not expect the war to provide any such justification, and is extremely unlike to do anything with its nuclear weaponry.

...I was going to write more, but then I forgot what it was. Expect an edit of this post in some time.

by **The Crooked Beat** » Sun Jan 12, 2014 6:33 pm

I'm afraid that, to a significant extent, the implications of this whole scenario for Gandvian internal politics are still unclear, in my own mind, so I'll hold off on trying to discuss that in any greater depth lest I bombard everyone with a more than usually incoherent string of thoughts. Probably a little tension between centralizing and federalizing tendencies, at the very least.

On intelligence, there probably isn't a whole lot about the Gandvian armed forces that Nibelunc wouldn't know or be able to find out, given that, due to the relatively factionalized and politically-focused nature of the military establishment as a whole, incentives to leak classified information are high and security procedures are lax. Dissatisfaction among the junior officer corps especially probably means that there are more than enough Gandvians willing to pass things on to Munstra, while, in peacetime, Nibelunc could without doubt glean a great deal of information from signals intercepts, given that rules intended to prevent the enemy from listening-in during wartime may be ignored under normal circumstances. And not only that, but Riga has almost certainly been working on what basically amounts to the same strategic master-plan for at least a few decades by now, and for reasons of its limited window of opportunity, terrain, and the balance of forces, simply can't do anything that unexpected. So, allowing for a seven-day mobilization to operational footing, the Hari would probably have grounds enough to suspect something was up within 24-36 hours, and ample intelligence within 48 hours.

Gandvik's overall military picture is also something that Munstra must, by now, be pretty well familiar with, although the condition of certain reserve formations may even be a mystery to the Gandvian high command!

In terms of readiness, I think, judging from what I've been able to find about the Soviet Union, seven days or so is a pretty accurate estimate, where the Gandvian active force is concerned. Formations deployed opposite Thortraia are probably maintained at closer to full strength due to recent tensions, and to the fact that they're tasked with covering the most direct route into Gandvik itself, but they wouldn't be expected to launch a major offensive effort of their own as Riga expects heavy reinforcements to reach the Hari in Thortraia before the Royal Army is able to take advantage of whatever temporary numerical advantage it might possess. There's also a possibility that certain units on the Shieldian front might be sent into battle slightly under-strength, Army commanders believing they'd still be able to best any opposition that manifests itself.

The so-called Class B reserves, who, for the most part aren't part of the Royal Army's permanent structure, present a more confused picture. Leaving to one side the security, construction, and various rear-area support units assigned to corps or army command, the ten reserve armored regiments, the best-equipped and generally most battle-ready of Gandvik's reserve formations, might be fully organized and up to strength within seven to ten days from their receiving the necessary orders, while the remaining motorized regiments, the least-ready of which would need to collect transport from civilian sources, could require anywhere from two weeks to a month or more. Probably the greatest factor restricting their employment is a shortage of armored vehicles, and the fact that many of those allocated to reserve regiments are clearly obsolete. Conscious of historical precedent, the Royal Army high command would not want to deploy those troops in a capacity where they might face far better-equipped and better-prepared Nibelung forces, because to do so would, according to classified official reports, invite desertion on a massive scale.

Gandvian forces would initially consist of six Army Corps at 18 divisions in total, and airborne/air assault forces amounting to one division and two independent brigades held at army level. Three further divisions are currently stationed in Scandinavia and will probably not take part in the main anti-Shieldian offensive, though they might be raided for reinforcements later on. I'll hold off on posting the full order of battle for now, but ten divisions, including all airborne forces, will probably be committed in Editraequan and east of the Daldan, with six lined-up directly opposite the three Nibelung divisions in Thortraia, two held back in the Minsk area as a strategic reserve, and one covering the Pinsk Marshes. That total could nearly double within a month or so, as reserve regiments assemble, while the Gendarmerie might be able to furnish another two or three divisions if needed, on a similar scale of time.

Stockpiles of war materiel, I think, fairly large and comparable to Nibelung holdings overall, even if certain things are probably liable to run out much more quickly than others. Fuel, at least, shouldn't present too much of a problem. As for armored vehicles, only the Pav.84 and Rpv.92 are currently in production, at a rate, possibly, of something like 150 and 250 respectively per year. Those figures could probably be ramped-up in wartime, but not significantly, so Gandvik can sustain a level of attrition, but not nearly on the same scale as can be absorbed by the Hari.

Without giving too much away, I think it's safe to say that a large portion of the Gandvian war plan revolves around the use of the Dnieper/Daldan as a barrier to Nibelung interference with the main effort in eastern Weshield and Shadoran, so the presence of the 9th Panzer Division and other strong Hari forces in Marbleston is a help, to the extent that it places what's probably the most powerful formation currently in a position where it can't act as an immediate obstacle to the Royal Army's main advance, but a hindrance in that it removes the possibility of catching a Nibelung division on its own, and destroying it before reinforcements arrive. Regardless, I think the probable Gandvian strategy will be to try and deal with the pre-positioned forces, and interdict any air-transported or overland reinforcement eastward through Thortraia and Weshield, primarily with air power. Tactical ballistic missiles might constitute another side of that, but if Nibelunc doesn't use its own, at the ATACMS level at least, there could be some reluctance on Gandvik's part to wheel out its Iskanders for fear of the nuclear implications, though the Royal Army doesn't currently arm that particular missile with nuclear warheads.

Also, what does everyone make of the Pinsk/Pripyat Marshes, and the terrain along the RL Ukraine-Belarus border in general? I've always been led to believe that, except for a few roads, they're mostly impassable to vehicle traffic, and in WWII at least were a formidable natural obstacle that impeded north-south communications in that area, but apart from a few passing references in various books, and some none-too-closely examined maps, I don't really know much about it, and I'll gladly defer to anyone with more information. For our purposes, I had figured that the marshes would divide the Shieldian war-zone into defined eastern and western sectors, and effectively shorten what is otherwise an extremely long front, since the Royal Army would be just as reluctant to try and attack through it, as it is certain of its ability to defeat any attack moving in the opposite direction, but I may well be overestimating the region's unsuitability for armored movement.

by **Syberea** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 3:06 pm

For the sake of spicing up things a bit, I just thought I'd use an image instead of writing a full description that would make 50% sense, for a change.
I'm probably one of the lesser military-enthusiasts in AMW, which is why sometimes, my numbers and descriptions and such make less sense, although for this one, I think I did reasonably okay. I know the XXX etc. should be below a square with an icon of what the army/fleet is, but I'm like, not very knowledgeable what a fleet's emblem would look like, so I just went with this.

Anyway, so, to make things a bit clear surrounding the image;

White square indicates that the Army is attached to something else, thus dependent. In this case, the only white square is for the Far East Army, which is the most numerous in terms of active personnel, and is attached to the Far East Fleet. With the only less-than-friendly neighbour being Walmington, there need not be an explanation for the presence of most of the personnel and equipment there.

In the West, there's only Naval and Special units. The yellow square indicates that the unit is.. Special.. The 78th 'Triglav' Armored Division is Syberea's most prestigious, best-equipped & overall most battle-tested Armored division. It's also the only Armored Division that's not part of a bigger Army, due to the lack of necessity to raise more than just the Far East Army. The men & women in the 'Triglav' Armored Division are professional soldiers, instead of the conscripted men & women all the non-special units (With the sole exception being the Nuclear Flotillas, which aren't as numerous as there is actual equipment).

The 27th VOSPNAZ Regiment (A play on Voyska spetsialnogo naznacheniya, which are the words 'Spetsnaz' is based off on) is Syberea's most 'extreme' regiment- whilst not actually even a regiment, due to the other regiments not being planned to go out on action, many of the men & women of the other VOSPNAZ units are joining the 27th' ranks.

Both the 27th and 78th are planned to join the Gandvian war effort in the West, due to Syberea's current inability to estimate how well an invasion of Walmingtonian North America would proceed. Gandvik may deny the need of the units, although that would greatly offend both the Syberean Government, Military leadership, and, possibly worst, the men & women who willingly signed up for the units in question in the effort to prove themselves for both Syberea and Gandvik.

(Note; TBC, you're free to deny having these under your wing if you don't want them. Won't hold it against you. They're only the best-of-the-best that Syberea can actually field.)

by **Iansisle** » Wed Jan 15, 2014 5:10 pm

So, I don't have an exact order of battle drawn up for the GFR either, but I do have some basic information. Primary organization is around three army groups, South (Geletian border, Black Sea Region, and Depkazi border), East (Shadoran and Weshield east of the Daldan) and West (Thortraia and Weshield west of the Daldan). Strategic planning imagines a heavy blow aimed at quickly taking Vess and then pushing down the Daldan towards Balliat, Clyfton and Furthingham. Gandvik is not expected to operate heavily across the Jaizar, which is one reason why forces along that frontier are relatively light.

The Shield operates twenty-one heavy mechanized brigades organized into seven divisions, although the brigades are expected to be able to operate semi-autonomously. One division is deployed under the South Group, concentrated along the Geletian and Javian borders, while the other six are split with two divisions in Group West, where they presumably are in close cooperation with the large Nibelung presence in the region, and four divisions in Group East. Two brigades, both from Group East, including Ranalte's 15th Mechanized, are at rear bases near Furthingham practicing with the new TS-12-720s. The other brigades are still operating the older TS-96-720s. The Shield also has seven brigades of light infantry and two brigades of airborne troops in three divisions. One of these is currently tied up "ensuring a peaceful transition" in Thortraia, the other two are attached to Army Group East. I'd like at least one brigade of light infantry to end up cut off and isolated in Vess.

In the air, the Republic's Air Force, with a backbone consisting of Wychwood Warblers equipped with Taildog and Rhubarb* missiles, is scattered across dozens of airfields on the northern and western Shield, with hundreds of others hosting little more than an occasionally-operated radar and a few rotting Colt carcasses. Ideally, Nibelung forces based at Dunston will do most of the heavy lifting, but in the occasion that the Nibs are unable (unwilling?) to help, the plan is for a guerrilla swarm fighter air war, with Raven aerial control craft guiding non-radiating Warblers in at encroaching Gandvian aircraft.

The Shield does maintain some sort of reserves as well, although certainly not as large or well-trained as the Gandvian system. They would be equipped with mothballed Imperial weapons and would likely lack discipline and organization at first, although morale and motivation would probably be higher than their Gandvian counterparts.

It is doubtful that the Republic has major reserves of any strategic material (especially since Ferkas left us!

), and will likely lose the major production facility for much of its equipment in the first few days of the war. Any protracted conflict will rely heavily on Nibelung or other outside subsidization.

Cass, California would not feel the need to do so secretly! It's not necessarily that they disapprove of the war, they just have no desire to be drawn in. The very top-end of Californian aerospace technology is likely unavailable even to close allies, but I'm sure a deal can be reached on pretty much anything else. What specifically were you interested in?

LRR, I'm am in receipt of your telegram and still working up a response. But very generally in favor!

(( * - on that note, I do think we need to go about splitting up the American ordnance, but this is probably not the right thread. Meet you in the general discussion, WoS and Mod?))

by **The Crooked Beat** » Wed Jan 15, 2014 11:03 pm

As always, Ian, there's no need to rush in responding to that telegram, and any delay, at the very least, will give me more of an opportunity to gain a better idea of how to develop those ideas.

Very correct in assuming that the current Gandvian plan doesn't provide for any large-scale moves east of the Jaizar (Don?) right away, at least not until a significant number of reserves have been brought into action, but subject to change depending on circumstances! The Gandvian advance against the Shield will almost certainly be pressed forward with all possible speed, also, so it is entirely possible that a brigade of light infantry, bypassed in the general rush south, might find itself behind the lines in Vess and reasonably intact. Royal Army tankers and armored units, impressed with the importance of engaging and destroying the GFR's heavy brigades, are no doubt expected in any major war to leave pockets of infantry alone, to a point, for later mopping-up. While a tank force would probably not hesitate to try and run-down an infantry brigade caught in the open, forested or urban terrain is a different story, and unless reconnaissance determined enemy resistance to be very weak or disorganized, Gandvian armor would avoid committing itself to any major attack except where no better course of action presented itself.

Regarding Syberean reinforcements, they'd almost certainly be most welcome, especially where ground troops are concerned, though I don't think they'd be included in Gandvik's opening bid simply due to limitations of distance and logistics, and the fact that it might not be possible for them to arrive before the Royal Army is ready, special forces possibly excluded.

One more small note, a major Gandvian operation against Thortraia may be a possibility after all, depending on where Nibelung reinforcements end up being sent, and on the success of Gandvian interdiction efforts. If the Royal Army can manage to maintain its numerical superiority over Hari forces in that area for a few days at least, I think Gandvian commanders will be unable to pass up the opportunity to attack while conditions are as favorable as they're ever likely to become. There might be a political angle to this also, in that Riga sees a clear victory over Nibelung arms as a way to keep Walmington neutral. And from an out-of-character perspective, the heavy losses that will doubtless accompany a serious attack in Thortraia could serve to lower confidence in the government and military leadership.

by **The Crooked Beat** » Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:59 pm

My apologies for the double-post, but I thought it prudent to say that, after a great deal of wasted effort and dithering, I've finally finished a prospective first-post for this war scenario which we've been discussing, so the great crisis is on the horizon at least, if maybe still a little ways off.

Very basically, it follows the scenario which I've outlined with Ian, namely that an attack on an Editraequan Army post by rebels, supported almost certainly by the Gull Flag Republic's MIO, results in the death of a senior Gandvian diplomat plus of course a fair few local soldiers and Gandvian advisers, and gives a hawkish government in Riga the excuse that it has been waiting for. At the risk of giving too much away, there's an agreement to issue and ultimatum and general consensus, among the official circles that currently matter, that a war with the Shieldians is winnable, so Gandvik definitely wants and expects to attack in the end, but I figure there probably ought to be a little time for others to chime-in on the diplomatic side of things before Riga throws down the gauntlet, so to speak.

As for the subject of names, I think Ian is very much on to something with the one that he's come up with for this thread, though for brevity's sake maybe we can just leave it at Ca Ira? I promise I'll learn to type the cedilla before starting the IC thread. And with luck we won't get sued by Roger Waters!

Other ideas I had were possibly The Voice of the Guns or The Field of Honor, after a British and French military march respectively, but provided no one prefers them I think Ian's original suggestion works a bit better.

Also, although the information can also be found in my fact-book, I'll go ahead and post Gandvik's order of battle, in what ought to be its definitive version:

And if anyone out there is having trouble falling asleep, they can have a look at some tables of organization, which ought to provide a more detailed overview of how the various Gandvian formations are put together.

There are clearly a lot of details that remain unclear, so some general points:

-The Gandvian Territorial Army, which I've also variously referred to as the Home Guard and Class B Reserve, includes a lot of sub-regimental units, including some theoretically-deployable light infantry battalions and the like, which I haven't yet bothered to describe in any real detail. Fixed border and coastal fortifications are generally manned by territorial army troops, and the territorial army would also be chiefly responsible for rear-area security and anti-sabotage roles, on top of its substantial logistical and lines-of-communication tasks.

-Forces belonging to the Gendarmerie's Operational Group West, as standing formations, would be available for use almost immediately, though they are by no means intended to participate in heavy fighting against regular troops except in a defensive capacity. Their main role, in the opening stages of any campaign, is to assist Army troops in covering the border with Amberland. Each Mobile Group is approximately equal in size to an under-strength regular army regiment, and consists of anywhere from three to five Gendarmerie Mobile Squadrons, for their own part equivalent to small battalions. Mobile Squadrons have about the same combat power as light infantry battalions, if their cannon-equipped armored cars are considered an adequate substitute for heavy mortars and automatic grenade launchers, and at least one company in each squadron is carried in Kpa.83 wheeled APCs.

-In addition to the Gendarmerie and Border Guard battalions attached to each corps headquarters for rear-area security and policing in occupied areas, the Gendarmerie is expected to raise two or three division-sized formations for deployment to those sections of the Shield which Gandvik manages to occupy. These might take about two or three weeks to assemble. They'd generally be very lightly-equipped, and probably would lack their own artillery, though in terms of training and motivation they probably ought to be treated as superior to the Territorial Army, if also a great deal more likely to exploit the local population. Most of their strength would be drawn from regional contingents, each of which might be called upon to contribute one to three motorized battalion-strength units for cross-border deployment. These Security Divisions will probably be built around three small regiments with a mixture of border guards and departmental gendarmes, a mobile squadron, and potentially an attached Territorial Army light motorized regiment, plus support services drawn from the Territorial Army, for a total strength of anywhere between 10,000 and 15,000 personnel depending on exact composition.

-Each Military Area is, in theory, convertible to a Corps command of two field divisions, in addition to a stripped-down array of corps-level support units and a number of regiments not automatically allocated to a higher-level headquarters.

EDIT: I don't know if anyone's necessarily keeping track, but I have been making some changes here and there to the Gandvian order of battle, which I hope nobody minds terribly, and if so, I'd be happy to revert to the original. This post, rather than the information in my factbook, ought to be treated as the most up to date accounting of Gandvik's military organization, though the differences probably won't be too large.

Ah! Ça Ira (AMW, OOC)

Ah! Ça Ira (AMW, OOC)

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