NPBS News | Politics | Special feature
Friday, 27 November 2009
November in politics
NPBS News revisits the top political headlines of November with special coverage of Saturday's referendum and the Pacitalian parliamentary elections.
Bach on hiatus as vote looms
The whereabouts of Premier Servius Bach was the subject of national controversy recently. Mr Bach has been on 'holiday' leave since Parliament adjourned last Thursday. On Monday a spokesman for the Premier's office dismissed rumours that the premier was dying. He said the premier was entitled to six weeks annual leave and was using some of this time to 'rest'. It later emerged that Mr Bach has been staying at a resort near Kingstown.
However, questions were raised about the timing of Premier Bach's holiday. On Saturday, Prosperitans will vote in a controversial referendum that will not only determine whether Nova Prosperitas adopts the Pacitalian douro, but could also define Mr Bach’s term. The issue of a single Foringanan currency has divided the country and the government for the past year. The Cabinet's decision to hold a binding referendum was opposed by Treasurer Christian Benedict (as revealed in the now infamous Dear Servius e-mail) whose public spats with the premier have added to the drama that has mired the referendum since it was announced in July.
Mr Bach's decision to back the pro-douro campaign was always a gamble and many in Libertas fear it will not pay off. The antics of billionaire Rod McCain and a coterie of Foringanan business elites reinforced claims the referendum had been 'hijacked' by big money, while eyebrows were raised about the premier's personal friendship with Mr McCain. Earlier this month it was revealed that the Timiocato-based real estate and investment tycoon was more than just a "passing acquaintance", as the premier once suggested. Details of a private meeting between Mr Bach and pro-douro campaigners at Mr McCain's home in Mirabile Visu and a stay aboard Mr McCain's yacht surfaced amid allegations of shady dealings.
Accounting scandal rocks McCain International
Rod McCain. Photo credit: PPA
Perhaps the most dramatic moment came last week when the National Police Service's Serious Fraud Office announced it would be investigating questionable accounting practices by property development firm Zenith, a subsidiary of McCain International. Zenith executives including McCain's nephew James Maxwell, the company's chairman, are alleged to have inflated figures for cash and bank balances.
Although Mr Maxwell has confessed to being aware of the falsified accounts, he claims neither he nor the company's managing director profited from the inflated revenues. The scandal appeared to have put a final nail in the coffin of Mr McCain's pro-Douro campaign with the government moving quickly to distance itself from McCain.
However, Nationalist leader Adriano Benita said the damage had already been done. He observed: "Mr Bach's reputation is tarnished by his association with these people. All their credibility has gone out the window and the premier's with it. Now, rather than reclaim his dignity in the face of defeat, he has chosen to hide."
Support for Libertas and douro plunges
Libertas continued to shed support in November. Since its election in March the party has slipped from 35 percent to an all time low of 23 percent. The Social Democrats remain on 29 percent, while the Christian Democrats have slipped back to 15 percent.
In November, Servius Bach's own approval ratings fell below the margin of error. This was the first time a sitting premier had failed to register in a poll since records began. Treasurer Christian Benedict also failed to register. Social Democratic leader Nero Bianchi is up 5 percentage points to 22 percent. Christian Democrat Conan George remains steady on 17 percent.
A poll published in The Prosperitan Herald on Friday morning reported that 40 percent of voters intend to vote 'no' in Saturday's referendum. Only 32 percent said they would vote in favour of the proposition. However, 28 percent of the electorate remains undecided. Political analysts say much will depend on voter turnout tomorrow. In Nova Prosperitas, referenda have traditionally attracted higher turnout rates. The fact that the referendum is binding will likely reinforce this. Political editor Nick Marr says tomorrow will also present an opportunity for voters to express their disapproval of the increasingly unpopular government.
Nationalists enjoy surge
Adriano Benita. Photo credit: PPA
The Nationalist Coalition has made significant gains under the leadership of former lawyer Adriano Benita. This month the party reached 21 percent in the latest poll, overtaking the Christian Democrats for the first time. Mr Benita himself tops the NPBS preferred premier poll this month with 34 percent support.
Political scientist Dr Adelais Crane of the National University says the party, which won 39 seats at the last election, could grow much stronger in the years to come. Dr Crane also cast doubt on Servius Bach's leadership of Libertas. He said the party's 'remarkable' change in fortunes since coming to power in March is unprecedented and 'alarming'.
"This is a government that should still be enjoying a 'honeymoon' of sorts," Dr Crane told NPBS's Discuss programme. "But in the space of just six or seven months we have seen the governing party hit an all-time low."
End of the road for Bach?
Dr Crane said Mr Bach had been strong in the election campaign but weak in government. He pointed to Mr Bach's failure to unite the party's competing factions, and in particular heal the wounds between himself and Treasurer Christian Benedict after an intense leadership battle 18 months ago.
"I think the great tragedy is that almost all of the bickering and self-inflicted harm has been due to a personality clash rather than any deep ideological schisms in the party. Instead of engaging in public matches these two should have reined in their egos. I think Libertas would be in a much stronger position if they had."
Dr Crane said it now appeared that the referendum was an 'unmitigated disaster' for Servius Bach. Even if the motion did pass, which remained a possibility, his premiership would be forever associated with the 'circus' of the last few months.
"And it really has been a circus. I don't use that word lightly," Dr Crane said. "I think the premier will be reflecting long and hard on the whole episode."
Dr Crane believed Prosperitans were not 'ready' for the currency debate. The government botched its handling of the referendum and in doing so it had made future attempts at a national discourse on continental integration more difficult.
"What may seem like a simple proposition to you or me is actually not quite so straightforward to the average voter. And I do not mean to belittle any of your viewers. I just think that this issue is a very complex one and it has not really been dealt with appropriately by much of the media or the polity, for that matter. In fact, I would be prepared to go so far as to say there hasn't been a debate. What we have had is a shouting match."
2009 Pacitalian elections: Historic victory for Greens
Across the border, the Pacitalian Green Party has swept to power in a historic election victory this week. The party captured the largest share of seats under Pacitalia's mixed member proportional electoral system, winning 334 out of a possible 1,099 seats in parliamentary elections Tuesday. Turnout was estimated to be around 94 percent, the highest in a national election.
It is widely anticipated that the Greens, led by 31 year old Gabrielo Brunate, will enter into a coalition agreement with the centre-left Pacitalian Social Congress and socialist Democratic Nationalist Party. However, NPBS correspondent Julian Sargent reports that the Greens are also courting the autonomist Empordian League. The league has a somewhat more liberal outlook than the DNP and its leader, Adriun Vall i Bernám, has expressed a willingness to work with the new government.
"He has indicated that a confidence and supply agreement in return for elevating regional tongues such as Empordian and Margherian Spanish to official language status may be up for consideration," Mr Sargent said.
But regardless of what shape the new government takes, Tuesday's victory heralds a new era in Pacitalian politics. Not everyone is confident that Mr Brunate and his party will deliver, though. Some commentators have criticised the party for being 'too light' on policy.
Indeed, Mr Brunate's fleeting appearance on election night has raised further concerns about his readiness to lead. The prime minister-elect has since gone to ground, citing influenza. Comedians on both sides of the border have facetiously made comparisons to Servius Bach's own 'disappearing act'. Few are laughing, though.
"This disappearing act is unbecoming of someone who is supposed to lead a government," Christian Democrat leader Vincenzo Promarche warned.
Meanwhile, the incumbent Federation of Progressive Democrats, which has governed the Foringanan giant for much of the past 100 years, will return to the political wilderness. It is unclear whether the party's leader and outgoing prime minister, Archetenia Nera, will step down. Political analysts note that the FPD came closer than expected. The party won 308 seats.
Acting Premier Christian Benedict said of the election result Wednesday: "First of all, on behalf of the Prosperitan government, allow me to congratulate Mr Brunate on his historic and sweeping victory. Second of all, Nova Prosperitas looks forward to a close working relationship with the new administration in Timiocato."
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