Preparations for a New War, Domestic
January through March 2021As part of the modernization efforts started under the previous administration, exercises were being held on a far more regular basis. With tensions in the Far East growing with each passing day, the US military needed to begin planning for a possible conflict in the region. The mobilization of National Guard and Reserve units, the deployment of forces from the United States to a potential warzone, and the integration of coalition forces into a cohesive battleplan were all necessary considerations. The United States military would begin drawing up new contingency plans, this time focused on the primary potential adversaries: the People’s Republic of China and Iran. The recent announcement by Korea indicated a potential change in threat in that region but it was still a potential flashpoint, necessitating a third war plan.
The next requirement would be to expand combat capability to ensure that the United States could fight two major conflicts at once, though with a twist. The US Marine Corps, determined not to be a second US Army, was insistent on developing themselves into an advanced basing and expeditionary warfare force, which could potentially provide the United States with the ability to fight two major wars simultaneously while using the Marines for a holding action in a third conflict.
The next consideration would be a thorough study of American manpower potential. This would include lobbying for the expansion of the Selective Service Act to cover women and the construction of large warehouses to maintain reserve warstocks in climate controlled conditions, thus hopefully keeping them operational for long periods of time.
Unfortunately, this would be a daunting task. For a multitude of reasons, only 20% of Americans within the range of 17 to 24 were even eligible for military service, the rest being disqualified due to lack of education, health problems, or criminal records. In total, 9.7 million of the 33 million Americans in the prime age range would be eligible. Of those, only 5.7 million could be immediately available for service, about 4 million being enrolled in college programs. Of those, only 1.7 million are of the quality that the military would desire. And of those, only a couple hundred thousand would consider joining the military.
For many young Americans, the Armed Forces weren’t a prestigious career opportunity. They were a last resort, the place that those who couldn’t hack it in the real world went. A collection of rejects, psychopaths, and failures. And despite the best efforts of the military to change those views, they remained.
Those views were reinforced by older Americans, by the media, and accepted by these potential recruits who, unlike previous generations, were unwilling to leave their family and friends behind. In short, if a war broke out, the United States would be hard pressed to find bodies.
And it was this problem that would need to be addressed in the coming years. Failing to address that issue would render most contingency planning utterly pointless from the start.
But that wouldn’t be the only consideration. There was also the need to transport troops to the combat zones, equip those troops with arms, uniforms, and armor, and train them. There were 43 battalions in the United States Army set up to conduct training. Each of these battalions can handle around 1,000 soldiers at a time. In the event of mobilization, the Army could push 165,120 additional troops through basic training in a single year. That number is reduced with the consideration of advanced training, but on the whole the Army could increase its overall size with relative ease.
Other branches, like the Air Force, would be more hard pressed to replace losses. The US Air Force relied solely on Lackland Air Force Base for Basic Military Training, limiting its BMT graduates to 11,520 in a year at most, though Lackland itself could train about 85,000 students in a year through all of its units. The Navy, relying on Recruit Training Command, Great Lakes, can train 109,200 entrants each year. The Marine Corps, though limited to about 35,000 entrants in a year, is also a smaller branch than the Navy or Air Force, and could potentially still function with a reduced training rate.
For the Navy, losses would be hardest to replace in terms of ships. The National Defense Reserve Fleet had been drastically reduced, with only a few dozen support ships in total, while the only warships that could be potentially called upon were in three Naval Inactive Ship Maintenance Facilities, mostly stricken and set to be disposed of. With no reserve of combat vessels, every ship lost by the US Navy in a war, anywhere in the world, would be a loss not easily replaced.
Equally concerning was the Air Force. Aircraft serviceability was greatly reduced due to a lack of skilled maintenance personnel. In addition, a lack of pilots meant reduced training hours available for new pilots, only exacerbating the issues. The Pentagon had taken steps to band-aid the problem, contract extensions, enlistment bonuses, re-sign bonuses. But it was becoming clear to military leaders that the “All Volunteer Force” was insufficient to meet the demands being placed upon the Armed Forces.
Such would be the topic of a lengthy memorandum being drafted by the Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Secretaries of the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Space Force, and other members of the National Security community. The simple fact was that America no longer had a choice. It must either institute some form of conscription or face the very real threat of military impotence in a world increasingly dominated by military strongmen.
Preparations for a New War, International
January to March, 2021The rising threat of China in the Indo-Pacific Region had created many shifts in the last few years. The
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, abandoned in 2008 after protests from China and a policy shift in Australia, was reformed in 2017, following increased aggression by China caused by its adoption of Xi Jinping’s
“Wolf Warrior Diplomacy”. The growing tensions in the region, largely due to increasing Chinese pressure on Taiwan and concerns over human rights violations within China, had convinced the US that it was high time to expand the Quad. High on the list of additional allies were the USSR, South Korea, Vietnam, The Philippines, New Zealand, Indonesia, Singapore, Laos, Cambodia, and Malaysia. Other potential additions included the UK, the EU, and Canada. Many in the defense community also began suggesting the formalization of the Quad into a NATO-like organization, with perhaps even a fundamental shift in the NATO Treaty to create a more global organization.
This would also lead to a shift in several military exercises. The USSR was already invited to participate in RIMPAC 2022, something that had been done since 2012. But now there was the proposal to invite the Soviets to participate in Exercise Malabar (alongside the permanent partners of India and Japan), Exercise Balikatan (with Australia and the Philippines), and Exercise Talisman Saber (with Australia). Exercise Balikatan would require the negotiation of a Visiting Forces Agreement with the Philippines, which was something that could most certainly be accomplished, but many of the other exercises could be far more easily conducted. It would also allow for expanded cooperation between the US and the USSR, something actively pursued under the Obama and Trump Administrations since the US-USSR Cooperation of Forces Agreement in 2008.
Wilkerson’s Administration was also going to continue the sale of military equipment to Taiwan, especially in terms of modern US equipment. Under the Trump Administration, some $18.2 billion dollars worth of military equipment had been sold to Taiwan, including 108 new-build M1A2T tanks and 66 F-16C/D Block 70 fighters, complete munitions, spare parts, and training. Wilkerson had the personal goal of exceeding not only Trump’s total in sales but also the practical effect of those sales. Wilkerson’s Administration would also consider proposing increased cooperation between the US military and the Taiwanese Armed Forces.
The USSR’s invitation of the US to, and the subsequent US participation in, Vostok 2018 and Caucasus 2020, demonstrated to the world that the US and USSR were making great strides in abandoning the Cold War mentality of distrust. There was some speculation by national security and foreign policy pundits that this could lead to the inclusion of the USSR in NATO or the very abolition of NATO as an organization, due to the growing friendly relationship between the USSR and the West.
In light of those exercises, another idea being considered by the US was inviting the USSR to participate in Flag Exercises alongside the US Air Force, US Army, and Royal Canadian Air Force, a symbolic gesture of goodwill, since an invitation to participate in the Flag Exercises was only extended to nations considered friendly to the United States and had not been extended under the Obama or Trump Administrations. If this invitation were to be announced, it would signal very publicly that the Wilkerson Administration considered the USSR an important compatriot to the United States.
Preparations for a New War, the BudgetThe new defense initiative would require a massive investment. Over $5 trillion dollars over the next five years, about $1 trillion each year. What would this buy?
For the Army, this would be 25 Armored Brigades, 15 Stryker Brigades, 30 Aviation Brigades, 15 Security Force Assistance Brigades, 4 Special Operations Aviation Battalions, additional funding for Rangers and Special Forces groups, 777 Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicles, 502 upgraded M1 Block III SEP tanks, 600 heavy tactical trucks, 1,182 medium tactical trucks, 1,478 Ground Mobility Vehicles, 17,848 JLTVs, 1,468 Strykers, 414 M2001A2 Crusader Integrated Management vehicles, 382 AH-64D/E attack helicopters, 62 MH/CH-47F/G, 634 UH-60 Blackhawks, 250 UH-72 Lakotas, 20 MQ-1Cs, 60,900 GMLRS rockets, 12,340 Hellfires, 5,292 JAGMs, 8,500 Javelins, 290,856 NGSWs, 1,836 Precision Strike Missiles, 250 PAC-3 MSE missiles, 250 PAC-3 launchers, as well as increased training and maintenance cycles to increase readiness and accelerations to new programs, such as OMFV, DLP, MPF, Hypersonics, FARA, and FLRAA. All of this would see the Army budget increase to $302 billion by 2025, with a total of more than $1.3 trillion invested in the Army over the next five years.
For the Navy, this would be 5 more Ford Class carriers ordered, 2 Nimitz Class carriers extended, 5 more LHAs ordered, 5 more LPD Flight IIs ordered, 10 Ticonderogas extended, 5 DDG-1000s ordered, 16 DDG-51s ordered, 18 FFG(X)s ordered, the Columbia class accelerated, 10 more Virginia class ordered, 1 EPF ordered, 4 T-AGOs ordered, 16 Fleet Oilers ordered, 2 new Carrier Air Wings established, 30 EA-18Gs, 60 F/A-18E/Fs, 242 F-35Cs, 17 MQ-4Cs, the acceleration of the MQ-25, 24 MQ-9As, 7 CMV-22s, 2,364 AIM-9X missiles, 3,602 GMLRS rockets, 600 Hellfire missiles, 1,271 JAGM, 16,175 JDAMs, 1,120 Rolling Airframe Missiles, 3,476 SDB-IIs, 1,525 AMRAAMs, 420 LRASMs, 775 Tactical Tomahawk Missiles, 1,550 SM-6 missiles, accelerations to the development of Navy Hypersonics, and increased training and maintenance cycles to increase readiness. In total, 17 new warships would be commissioned by 2025. This would see the Navy budget increase to $232.26 billion by 2025, with a total of more than $1.09 trillion invested in the Navy over the next five years.
For the US Marine Corps, there would be a loss of all three tank battalions. This would be alongside the retirement of 105 AV-8s. Acquisitions would include 1,048 Amphibious Combat Vehicles, 124 CH-53E/Ks, 655 H-1s, 19 MV-22s, 174 F-35B/Cs, 21 KC-130Js, 130 Javelins, and 240 Land Based Tomahawks. Other funding would be pushed towards increased training and maintenance cycles to improve readiness and increased funding for Marine Special Operations. The USMC would be the only branch to see a net reduction in active formations over the next five years. This would see the USMCs budget increase to a high of $87.98 billion in 2025, with a total investment of $407.68 billion over the next five years.
For the Air Force, there would be the retirement of 280 A-10 attack planes and 54 B-52 bombers. Acquisitions would include 76 F-15EXs, 480 F-35As, 270 MQ-9As, 16 HC/MC-130Js, 84 KC-46s, 4,482 AMRAAMs, 4,914 JASSMs, 263 LRASMs, 2,538 AIM-9Xs, 11,900 Hellfires, 400 JAGMs, 59,600 JDAMs, 19,340 SDB-Is, and 12,408 SDB-IIs. Other funds are devoted to increased training and maintenance cycles to improve readiness and accelerations to key programs like hypersonic weapons, B-21, NGAD, and GBSD. This would see the Air Force’s budget increase to $275.78 billion in 2021, reducing to about $225.01 billion by 2025, with a total investment of over $1.2 trillion over the next five years.
The Space Force would see significant growth under the new program. This would include the purchase of 4 AEHF satellites, 4 MUOS satellites, 10 WGS satellites, 20 GPS-IIIF satellites, 1 Next Gen OPIR GEO satellite, 2 Next Gen OPIR Polar satellites, and 10 GSSAP satellites. This would see the Space Force budget peak at almost $32 billion in 2023 before it fell to $22.13 billion in 2025, with a total investment of $128.06 billion over the next five years.
Finally, Defense Wide spending changes would see the purchase of 5 new AEGIS Ashore facilities, 31 Ground Based Midcourse Defense sites, and 300 THAAD launchers. Other expansions would include the addition of 25 Cyber Combat Mission Teams, 15 Cyber National Mission Teams, 50 Cyber Protection Teams, and 25 Cyber Support Teams. The DOD would also stop running schools (on-base schools for military families) and commissaries, turning the control of schools over to other agencies. There would also be funding increases for other programs, including $120 billion for RDT&E, $110 billion for Science and Technology, and $24 billion for basing expansions and improvements. This would see Defense Wide spending increase steadily to $191 billion by 2025, with a total investment of $909.36 billion over the next five years.
All told, there would be an increase of 136% in terms of funding compared to previous budget plans. The Army would increase in size to 1.8 million troops, the Navy to about 476,000 personnel, the Marine Corps would remain roughly the same in size, the Air Force would increase to about 516,000 personnel, and the Space Force would increase to 8,700 personnel. In total, the US military would increase to about 3 million troops, a significant increase over present manpower levels. This manpower increase would be helped largely by changes to the standards required to enter the Armed Forces. Notably, misdemeanor crimes, lack of high school diplomas, and tattoos would be largely ignored. Additionally, increased effort would be devoted to recruiting pending immigrants, with military service argued as an easy way to get citizenship for the recruit and their immediate family.
The increasing belligerence of the Chinese Communist Party was creating an air of tension within the United States. Where a decade ago recruits were difficult to come by, now the military was finding it easier to draw in quality recruits. However, the pool of volunteers was likely still too small. As such, the military would be proposing to Congress a limited, peacetime draft, to fill manpower needs. As far as the leaders of the military were concerned, Congress had issued a mission. Current recruitment efforts were insufficient to meet the mission requirements. As such, more drastic measures would need to be taken.