2021: A Changing World (OOC:Open)

[Laka Strolistandiler]

Nationstates Name: Laka Strolistandiler
Nation Name: Japan

[Sao Nova Europa]

Going to be pro-PRC (kinda) Taiwan. Xi Jinping is somewhat less provocative in public speeches about Taiwan in 2019/2020, so Tsai Ing-wen does not get a bump in polls as in RL and Han Kuo-yu of KMT barely wins the election.

I assume that this is approved by OP, right? Just making sure so I don't write app and then get it rejected.

[The Manticoran Empire]

Going to be pro-PRC (kinda) Taiwan. Xi Jinping is somewhat less provocative in public speeches about Taiwan in 2019/2020, so Tsai Ing-wen does not get a bump in polls as in RL and Han Kuo-yu of KMT barely wins the election.

Yeah...uh...that's kinda directly opposed to the current relationship between Taiwan and China in this RP. China is currently just as aggressive to its "rebellious province" as it is IRL.

[Chewion]

Going to be pro-PRC (kinda) Taiwan. Xi Jinping is somewhat less provocative in public speeches about Taiwan in 2019/2020, so Tsai Ing-wen does not get a bump in polls as in RL and Han Kuo-yu of KMT barely wins the election.

I assume that this is approved by OP, right? Just making sure so I don't write app and then get it rejected.

You do need to keep in mind that the OP mentions how China has increased its saber-rattling towards Taiwan like irl. So that would play a factor in the relationship from 2021 onwards.

[Sao Nova Europa]

Going to be pro-PRC (kinda) Taiwan. Xi Jinping is somewhat less provocative in public speeches about Taiwan in 2019/2020, so Tsai Ing-wen does not get a bump in polls as in RL and Han Kuo-yu of KMT barely wins the election.

Yeah...uh...that's kinda directly opposed to the current relationship between Taiwan and China in this RP. China is currently just as aggressive to its "rebellious province" as it is IRL.

PRC has actually cooperated with Taiwan, when it is run by a KMT administration. And a KMT victory is frankly more realistic than a random Republican who endorsed Obama's agenda and is pro-choice winning the elections running against Trump and Biden.

[Laka Strolistandiler]

All right then- another version. Japan somehow evades 1990’s financial crisis (or it’s effect is far less prevalent than IRL, because of effective gov actions and is able to maintain larger fraction of it’s 80’s economical growth, with the additional continual rise in nationalism, which results in Article 9 being repelled somewhere around late 90’s-early 2000’s. Later Japan would distance itself away from the US further in further, remaining an ally but being more self-dependent in the matter. Also far MORE anti-Chinese than it’s IRL. Maybe will try to regain Kuril Islands diplomatically or something…

Will this version of Japan be acceptable?

[The Manticoran Empire]

Nationstates Name: Laka Strolistandiler
Nation Name: Japan

Cool beans.

So the earliest major changes can be made is 1990. Which means that the specific way you want Japan to be made more powerful is not possible in the contrivance of our specific RP. However, it is a possibility post 1990. There is a growing political movement in Japan to strengthen Japan's military and it has garnered enough support that Japan is building aircraft carriers again and has deployed troops overseas on more than one occaission.

All right then- another version. Japan somehow evades 1990’s financial crisis (or it’s effect is far less prevalent than IRL, because of effective gov actions and is able to maintain larger fraction of it’s 80’s economical growth, with the additional continual rise in nationalism, which results in Article 9 being repelled somewhere around late 90’s-early 2000’s. Later Japan would distance itself away from the US further in further, remaining an ally but being more self-dependent in the matter. Also far MORE anti-Chinese than it’s IRL. Maybe will try to regain Kuril Islands diplomatically or something…

Also can I reserve Japan until the end of the discussion?

Now in terms of this financial crisis, a major driving force behind that is the age gap in the Japanese population. You see, for much of the Post-world war 2 era, people in Japan waited to have children. So you have a large population of retirees who no longer work being supported by a population of workers that is too small to support the retirees AND keep the economy growing at the same time. It has very little to do with the Japanese government and a lot more to do with the society as a whole. Japan's economy has been largely stagnant for 30 years, with debt increasing rapidly as the government tries to solve the problem as best it can.

The repealing of Article 9 is a possibility as early as 2007 (since you've got to first get around the Japanese population being fairly divided on the topic in general). The anti-Chinese rhetoric is also a likely move to make and one that can definitely be supported, especially going into 2021, with the Chinese support of North Korea and China's increasingly aggressive attitude towards its neighbors.

However, the move away from the United States makes a bit less strategic sense if you are simultaneously going to irritate the PRC.

[The Manticoran Empire]

Yeah...uh...that's kinda directly opposed to the current relationship between Taiwan and China in this RP. China is currently just as aggressive to its "rebellious province" as it is IRL.

PRC has actually cooperated with Taiwan, when it is run by a KMT administration. And a KMT victory is frankly more realistic than a random Republican who endorsed Obama's agenda and is pro-choice winning the elections running against Trump and Biden.

In the past, they have. But under Xi Jinping? They have not. In fact, they have made it fairly clear the Taiwan can expect no "equitable" resolution to the dispute between Taipei and Beijing. This is made more clear by the reorganization of China's amphibious warfare forces and the growing PLAN.

I should also point out that, if one properly examines the 2020 presidential race and removes the effects of COVID-19, it becomes a lot more plausible to see a more moderate politician win.

[Sao Nova Europa]

PRC has actually cooperated with Taiwan, when it is run by a KMT administration. And a KMT victory is frankly more realistic than a random Republican who endorsed Obama's agenda and is pro-choice winning the elections running against Trump and Biden.

In the past, they have. But under Xi Jinping? They have not. In fact, they have made it fairly clear the Taiwan can expect no "equitable" resolution to the dispute between Taipei and Beijing. This is made more clear by the reorganization of China's amphibious warfare forces and the growing PLAN.

I should also point out that, if one properly examines the 2020 presidential race and removes the effects of COVID-19, it becomes a lot more plausible to see a more moderate politician win.

PRC has been willing to cooperate with a KMT-run Taiwan. I am not saying that there would not be tensions or that there wouldn't be internal opposition by the independence wing in Taiwan. But tensions would not be as high as in RL.

And when was the last time an independent politician won against Republican and Democrat candidate in US history? Unless I misread your history and your President run as Republican, but that is unlikely as the current GOP has veered to the right and such a character would be considered RINO. I am just pointing out that you dismiss as unrealistic scenarios that are likely and have happened in the past actually (see President Ma of Taiwan and his relations with PRC) while having a history that takes great liberties.

[SouthCarolina]

Nationstates Name: SouthCarolina
Nation Name: France

[The Manticoran Empire]

In the past, they have. But under Xi Jinping? They have not. In fact, they have made it fairly clear the Taiwan can expect no "equitable" resolution to the dispute between Taipei and Beijing. This is made more clear by the reorganization of China's amphibious warfare forces and the growing PLAN.

I should also point out that, if one properly examines the 2020 presidential race and removes the effects of COVID-19, it becomes a lot more plausible to see a more moderate politician win.

PRC has been willing to cooperate with a KMT-run Taiwan. I am not saying that there would not be tensions or that there wouldn't be internal opposition by the independence wing in Taiwan. But tensions would not be as high as in RL.

And when was the last time an independent politician won against Republican and Democrat candidate in US history? Unless I misread your history and your President run as Republican, but that is unlikely as the current GOP has veered to the right and such a character would be considered RINO. I am just pointing out that you dismiss as unrealistic scenarios that are likely and have happened in the past actually (see President Ma of Taiwan and his relations with PRC) while having a history that takes great liberties.

My president did run as a Republican. That's a pretty key part of it. What you are failing to notice is that the OP specifically states that Taiwan and China are at loggerheads, which makes any Taiwan or China that doesn't incorporate that at the beginning of the RP problematic.

[The Manticoran Empire]

Nationstates Name: SouthCarolina
Nation Name: France

So, Frankia, welcome. I look forward to seeing your application.

[Laka Strolistandiler]

Now in terms of this financial crisis, a major driving force behind that is the age gap in the Japanese population. You see, for much of the Post-world war 2 era, people in Japan waited to have children. So you have a large population of retirees who no longer work being supported by a population of workers that is too small to support the retirees AND keep the economy growing at the same time. It has very little to do with the Japanese government and a lot more to do with the society as a whole. Japan's economy has been largely stagnant for 30 years, with debt increasing rapidly as the government tries to solve the problem as best it can.

The repealing of Article 9 is a possibility as early as 2007 (since you've got to first get around the Japanese population being fairly divided on the topic in general). The anti-Chinese rhetoric is also a likely move to make and one that can definitely be supported, especially going into 2021, with the Chinese support of North Korea and China's increasingly aggressive attitude towards its neighbors.

However, the move away from the United States makes a bit less strategic sense if you are simultaneously going to irritate the PRC.

Perhaps then far larger automatization efforts in 1970’s and 1980’s, as well as larger birth rate after the Japanese economy rebuilds (I don’t think that this is actually a major change). Of course economical problems still happen, but the debt rising might happen at smaller rate, 1990’s won’t be “The lost decade” they were IRL- stuff like this.
I agree about moving away from US militarily might be a bad thing, I was talking about them being more independent economically and just partially militarily (F-3 actually already undergoing test flights by 2021 insyead of Japan byibg F-35 and stuff)

[Monsone]

All right then- another version. Japan somehow evades 1990’s financial crisis (or it’s effect is far less prevalent than IRL, because of effective gov actions and is able to maintain larger fraction of it’s 80’s economical growth, with the additional continual rise in nationalism, which results in Article 9 being repelled somewhere around late 90’s-early 2000’s. Later Japan would distance itself away from the US further in further, remaining an ally but being more self-dependent in the matter. Also far MORE anti-Chinese than it’s IRL. Maybe will try to regain Kuril Islands diplomatically or something…

Also can I reserve Japan until the end of the discussion?

To be fair, the only way to evade the early 1990s financial crisis in Japan is to prevent the asset price bubble of the late 1980s, which would mean not signing the 1985 Plaza Accord (among many, many other things). Japan would also need much stricter banking regulations to prevent reckless lending, which further contributed to the crisis of the early 1990s.

And that's without accounting for the 1997-1998 Asian Finacial Crisis, which might affect Japan in this timeline to a much more significant degree.

[Sao Nova Europa]

PRC has been willing to cooperate with a KMT-run Taiwan. I am not saying that there would not be tensions or that there wouldn't be internal opposition by the independence wing in Taiwan. But tensions would not be as high as in RL.

And when was the last time an independent politician won against Republican and Democrat candidate in US history? Unless I misread your history and your President run as Republican, but that is unlikely as the current GOP has veered to the right and such a character would be considered RINO. I am just pointing out that you dismiss as unrealistic scenarios that are likely and have happened in the past actually (see President Ma of Taiwan and his relations with PRC) while having a history that takes great liberties.

My president did run as a Republican. That's a pretty key part of it. What you are failing to notice is that the OP specifically states that Taiwan and China are at loggerheads, which makes any Taiwan or China that doesn't incorporate that at the beginning of the RP problematic.

How did he won the nomination? Such a candidate is unlikely to have won; someone who endorsed much of Obama's agenda and is for abortion clinics somehow wins the nomination against Trump, who is hugely popular among GOP voters?

Since OP wants to keep the Taiwan-China conflict, I will follow his lead (he is the OP after all and he gets to decide), so my point isn't about Taiwan. Will probably join as South Korea. My point is that American history is very unrealistic and needs to either be changed or other players be given the same creative liberties.

[Laka Strolistandiler]

To be fair, the only way to evade the early 1990s financial crisis in Japan is to prevent the asset price bubble of the late 1980s, which would mean not signing the 1985 Plaza Accord (among many, many other things). Japan would also need much stricter banking regulations to prevent reckless lending, which further contributed to the crisis of the early 1990s.

And that's without accounting for the 1997-1998 Asian Finacial Crisis, which might affect Japan in this timeline to a much more significant degree.

As I’ve said before, then the crisis still happens but it doesn’t go as bad as it does IRL

[SouthCarolina]

Nationstates Name: SouthCarolina
Nation Name: France

So, Frankia, welcome. I look forward to seeing your application.

Thank you. I would have been (Maybe) an independent Carolina or at least Carolina separatists

[Chewion]

Nationstates Name: SouthCarolina
Nation Name: France

Reserved

[SouthCarolina]

Nationstates Name: SouthCarolina
Nation Name: France

Reserved

Thank you. I will fully join in like 30 mins

[The Manticoran Empire]

My president did run as a Republican. That's a pretty key part of it. What you are failing to notice is that the OP specifically states that Taiwan and China are at loggerheads, which makes any Taiwan or China that doesn't incorporate that at the beginning of the RP problematic.

How did he won the nomination? Such a candidate is unlikely to have won; someone who endorsed much of Obama's agenda and is for abortion clinics somehow wins the nomination against Trump, who is hugely popular among GOP voters?

Since OP wants to keep the Taiwan-China conflict, I will follow his lead (he is the OP after all and he gets to decide), so my point isn't about Taiwan. Will probably join as South Korea. My point is that American history is very unrealistic and needs to either be changed or other players be given the same creative liberties.

There is a difference between deciding to go with an odd domestic political leader and altering the relationship between two nations. For the most part, people can make the domestic politics however they like. The USSR and Czechoslovakia both exist. North Korea is run by a moderate female who has the goal of reaching a peaceful coexistence with the South. Players do have quite a bit of creative liberties.

[Sao Nova Europa]

How did he won the nomination? Such a candidate is unlikely to have won; someone who endorsed much of Obama's agenda and is for abortion clinics somehow wins the nomination against Trump, who is hugely popular among GOP voters?

Since OP wants to keep the Taiwan-China conflict, I will follow his lead (he is the OP after all and he gets to decide), so my point isn't about Taiwan. Will probably join as South Korea. My point is that American history is very unrealistic and needs to either be changed or other players be given the same creative liberties.

There is a difference between deciding to go with an odd domestic political leader and altering the relationship between two nations. For the most part, people can make the domestic politics however they like. The USSR and Czechoslovakia both exist. North Korea is run by a moderate female who has the goal of reaching a peaceful coexistence with the South. Players do have quite a bit of creative liberties.

And yet KMT cannot win the 2020 Presidential elections despite at one point being ahead in the polls in RL...

Whatever. Will be joining as South Korea likely, so point is moot.

[The Manticoran Empire]

There is a difference between deciding to go with an odd domestic political leader and altering the relationship between two nations. For the most part, people can make the domestic politics however they like. The USSR and Czechoslovakia both exist. North Korea is run by a moderate female who has the goal of reaching a peaceful coexistence with the South. Players do have quite a bit of creative liberties.

And yet KMT cannot win the 2020 Presidential elections despite at one point being ahead in the polls in RL...

Whatever. Will be joining as South Korea likely, so point is moot.

At no point did I ever say the KMT could not win the elections. I simply said that there was no possibility of a calmer relationship with the PRC.

[Deblar]

Nationstates Name: Republic of Deblar
Nation Name: Republic of Cuba
Capital: Havana
Territory: IRL Cuba
Population: 11,320,000
Official Language: Spanish
Recognized Languages: English, French, etc.

Head of State: Raul Castro; President of the Republic of Cuba and General Secretariat of the Cuban Communist Party
HoS Picture:

Head of Government: ^
HoG Picture (If different from HoS):
Legislature Name: National Assembly of People’s Power
Party in Power (If bicameral note who controls each): Cuban Communist Party

GDP (nominal): 105.487 billion USD
Major Trade Partners: Venezuela, China, Spain, USSR, etc.
Major Exports: Refined Fuels, Tobacco, Sugar, Nickel, Pharmaceuticals
Major Imports: Machinery, Foodstuffs, Refined Fuel, Vehicles
Oil Production: 49,737.33 barrels per day
Oil Consumption: 153,000 barrels per day
Proven Oil Reserves: 124 million barrels
Defense Budget (USD): 0.13 billion USD
Alliances: United Nations, good relations with China and other communist countries

Military Branches (Just list names of official Armed Forces Branches):
Cuban Revolutionary Army
Cuban Revolutionary Navy
Cuban Revolutionary Marines
Cuban Revolutionary Air Force
Cuban Revolutionary Coast Guard

Active Duty: 50,000
Reserve Duty: 40,000
Total Manpower: 5,971,000

Tanks: 1,230
AFVs: 1,570
SPA: 100
Towed Artillery: 150
Rocket Projectors: 20

Fighters: 38
Dedicated Attack: 0
Transports: 2
Trainers: 26
Special Mission: 0
Helicopters: 14
Attack Helicopters: 4

Aircraft Carriers: 0
Destroyers: 0
Frigates: 2
Corvettes: 4
Submarines: 0
Patrol: 25
Mine Warfare: 4

Other Military Information:
Extra naval assets purchased from USSR

History Changes (Subject to review and approval by OP and Co-OP):

In 2008, when the Great Recession gripped Cuba, Fidel Castro had fallen ill, and after recovery, decided to retire from his post and hand over the Presidency and the General Secratariacy to his brother, Raul Castro, who holds the position to this day. Upon taking over for his brother, Raul began to modernize the island to “keep up with the rest of the world”, as he put it, establishing internet and cell service networks, making a net-zero emissions promise to be fulfilled by 2025, and shipping in new and modern vehicles primarily from Europe and China.

As Cuba went through the decade, there was a period, albeit rather short, of a cool down of relations with the United States during the presidency of Barack Obama. This short period would come to a quick end with the ascension of Donald Trump to the presidency, and economic sanctions on Cuba would contribute to the sluggish economy of recent years, which Raul has said the government aims to fix. However, Raul’s age is no secret, and many have concerns on how much long he can rule, and who will replace him in the event of his death or resignation. Meanwhile, the Cuban citizens grow ever more restless and impatient with the communist regime. Cuba stands at a crossroads, and only Heaven knows what will become of Cuba…


Do not remove - Alpha42

[The Manticoran Empire]

Nationstates Name: Republic of Deblar
Nation Name: Republic of Cuba
Capital: Havana
Territory: IRL Cuba
Population: 11,320,000
Official Language: Spanish
Recognized Languages: English, French, etc.

Head of State: Raul Castro; President of the Republic of Cuba and General Secretariat of the Cuban Communist Party
HoS Picture:
(Image)
Head of Government: ^
HoG Picture (If different from HoS):
Legislature Name: National Assembly of People’s Power
Party in Power (If bicameral note who controls each): Cuban Communist Party

GDP (nominal): 105.487 billion USD
Major Trade Partners: Venezuela, China, Spain, USSR, etc.
Major Exports: Refined Fuels, Tobacco, Sugar, Nickel, Pharmaceuticals
Major Imports: Machinery, Foodstuffs, Refined Fuel, Vehicles
Oil Production: 49,737.33 barrels per day
Oil Consumption: 153,000 barrels per day
Proven Oil Reserves: 124 million barrels
Defense Budget (USD): 0.13 billion USD
Alliances: none, good relations with China and other communist countries

Military Branches (Just list names of official Armed Forces Branches):
Cuban Revolutionary Army
Cuban Revolutionary Navy
Cuban Revolutionary Marines
Cuban Revolutionary Air Force
Cuban Revolutionary Coast Guard

Active Duty: 50,000
Reserve Duty: 40,000
Total Manpower: 5,971,000

Tanks: 1,230
AFVs: 1,570
SPA: 100
Towed Artillery: 150
Rocket Projectors: 20

Fighters: 38
Dedicated Attack: 0
Transports: 2
Trainers: 26
Special Mission: 0
Helicopters: 14
Attack Helicopters: 4

Aircraft Carriers: 0
Destroyers: 0
Frigates: 2
Corvettes: 4
Submarines: 0
Patrol: 25
Mine Warfare: 4

Other Military Information:
Extra naval assets purchased from USSR

History Changes (Subject to review and approval by OP and Co-OP):

In 2008, when the Great Recession gripped Cuba, Fidel Castro had fallen ill, and after recovery, decided to retire from his post and hand over the Presidency and the General Secratariacy to his brother, Raul Castro, who holds the position to this day. Upon taking over for his brother, Raul began to modernize the island to “keep up with the rest of the world”, as he put it, establishing internet and cell service networks, making a net-zero emissions promise to be fulfilled by 2025, and shipping in new and modern vehicles primarily from Europe and China.

As Cuba went through the decade, there was a period, albeit rather short, of a cool down of relations with the United States during the presidency of Barack Obama. This short period would come to a quick end with the ascension of Donald Trump to the presidency, and economic sanctions on Cuba would contribute to the sluggish economy of recent years, which Raul has said the government aims to fix. However, Raul’s age is no secret, and many have concerns on how much long he can rule, and who will replace him in the event of his death or resignation. Meanwhile, the Cuban citizens grow ever more restless and impatient with the communist regime. Cuba stands at a crossroads, and only Heaven knows what will become of Cuba…


Do not remove - Alpha42

Very nice. Leaves the door open for several different possibilities. I like.

[Sao Nova Europa]

And yet KMT cannot win the 2020 Presidential elections despite at one point being ahead in the polls in RL...

Whatever. Will be joining as South Korea likely, so point is moot.

At no point did I ever say the KMT could not win the elections. I simply said that there was no possibility of a calmer relationship with the PRC.

1) KMT cannot win the elections if Xi Jinping does not moderate a bit his tone for a few months during campaign for 2020 elections (since that will give boost to DPP like in RL).

2) If KMT is elected, yes, there would still be tensions but they would not be at the same level as in RL. PRC would not treat a KMT-led Taiwan exactly the same as DPP-led Taiwan. For a start, KMT does not challenge the status quo and is more warm towards economic relations with Beijing, so that would lower somewhat the tensions. The point I am making is not that PRC and RoC would suddenly become best buddies and work together smoothly. The point I am making is that while there would be tensions, outright threats of war or military movements very near Taiwan would be unlikely.