Washington 2017: The U.S. Political RP IC-Volume II (OPEN)

[Main Nation Ministry]

Casa De Johnson, Los Angeles

“Ooooh a mystery!” Donald exclaimed. “Who are we looking for and what did they do?”

Taylor Cox
Casa De Johnson, Los Angeles
May 23, 2017

"I hired a private eye to look into where my wife Velma works, however after my trip, I noticed that he just vanished into thin air. No leads, no nothing."

[Meelducan]

Casa De Johnson, Los Angeles

“I will have someone look into it,” Donald said with a seductive wink.

“Anything else?”

[Main Nation Ministry]

Casa De Johnson, Los Angeles

“I will have someone look into it,” Donald said with a seductive wink.

“Anything else?”

Taylor Cox
Casa De Johnson, Los Angeles
May 23, 2017

"You want to send out the invitations for the bacholar party? I pay for the rest, if you want." Cox said.

[Meelducan]

Casa De Johnson, Los Angeles

“I love sending invitations, of course I will!” Donald do the smile again.

[Main Nation Ministry]

Casa De Johnson, Los Angeles

“I love sending invitations, of course I will!” Donald do the smile again.

Taylor Cox
Casa De Johnson, Los Angeles
May 23, 2017


"Alright, and I will buy Rod a fastpass for the farm! Along with some...other arrangements." Cox said, grinning a bit.

[Federal States of Xathuecia]

Scotty Marlowe @BeamMeUpScotty We must not allow for hyperpartisanship and division cloud our sight that we are one country, one United States of America. We are not separate entities, whether that is the 'heartland' or 'regressive' California. To use such hateful language is a dishonor to this country and the millions of Americans in California who serve this country in a plethora of ways.

Scotty Marlowe @BeamMeUpScotty Remember Senator Amaras to respect the differences in opinion of others and not to simply spout such disrespectful words. The people of Iowa hold an equal diversity of views as well and to miscategorize that is simply wrong. You cannot speak on behalf of all Iowans and to do so is simply arrogant. Let us offer a simple reminder that 64.9% of Iowa's electorate rejected you and your views. Iowa Mr. Peter Amaras-35.1% Sen. Ulysses Johnson-30.7% Cnclmn. Darnell McCarver-24.7% Att. Gn. Alexander Valencia-9.3%

[Meelducan]

Casa De Johnson, Los Angeles

“This better be the best bachelors party ever thrown Taylor, or you’ll be in big trouble!” Donald Johnson do the slight laugh.

[Prolieum]

Peter Amaras
@ConservativeRevolutionary

---

You cannot dishonor anyone more than by killing them before they are given the chance to take their first steps in this world, @BeamMeUpScotty. You come across the country to advocate for the killing of the unborn, to stop beating hearts and you say that you're the one that doesn't hate?

---

#AdvocateForDeath #MessageOfHate #DishonorToTheDead #FightForLife #AbortionStopsABeatingHeart

---

Peter Amaras
@ConservativeRevolutionary

---

I speak on behalf those who cannot speak for themselves. A child in the womb can't do anything but silently scream when the forceps come. The opinion of those innocent children is that they want to live, Scotty. I've never seen you try to respect that.

---

#SpeakForTheSilenced #SilentScream #DeathOfInnocents #Hypocrite #TakeYourAdvice

---

[Puertollano]

Joh Stansky @GiveJohaGo! Amaras is a pro-life hypocrite. He thinks blastocysts are human life, but when it comes to actual humans, he couldn't care if they live or die! He's fine with poor people dying from easily curable illnesses because they can't afford their treatment. If you want to be ""pro-life"", you've at least got to care about living human beings.

[Puertollano]

Joh Stansky @GiveJohaGo! He's another vitriolic right-winger that tries to undermine our safety net and punches down. It's easy to beat up on people on welfare, but it shows real courage when you confront the real criminals and crooks: the ones in Wall Street.

[Tallahassee News Station]

(Image) Joh Stansky @GiveJohaGo! Amaras is a pro-life hypocrite. He thinks blastocysts are human life, but when it comes to actual humans, he couldn't care if they live or die! He's fine with poor people dying from easily curable illnesses because they can't afford their treatment. If you want to be ""pro-life"", you've at least got to care about living human beings. (Image)

Anita Flores
@TruthRevolution

Monsieur golden shower head seems pretty salty about getting himself pummeled to a pulp on live national television

[Puertollano]

(Image) Joh Stansky @GiveJohaGo! Amaras is a pro-life hypocrite. He thinks blastocysts are human life, but when it comes to actual humans, he couldn't care if they live or die! He's fine with poor people dying from easily curable illnesses because they can't afford their treatment. If you want to be ""pro-life"", you've at least got to care about living human beings. (Image)

Anita Flores
@TruthRevolution

Monsieur golden shower head seems pretty salty about getting himself pummeled to a pulp on live national television

Joh Stansky @GiveJohaGo! Golden? When did I say I wanted a golden shower head? I've got a regular shower head now and it works just fine.

[Tallahassee News Station]

(Image)
Anita Flores
@TruthRevolution

Monsieur golden shower head seems pretty salty about getting himself pummeled to a pulp on live national television

Joh Stansky @GiveJohaGo! Golden? When did I say I wanted a golden shower head? I've got a regular shower head now and it works just fine.

Anita Flores
@TruthRevolution

(Video attachment)

There's a reason why no normal, average people run for elected office. I'll tell you why, because the system is rigged against us. I can't afford to run a state-wind campaign for Governor! Hell, I can't afford to fix my broken shower head! I rely on small-level donations, from people like you.

Aw, poor Comrade Joh is a big fat liar. Turns out you CAN afford a working shower head when you rake in 130k from taxpayers every year, but you just wanted to swipe a little extra from your peoples pockets

[Tallahassee News Station]

TNS Political MegaReport

Connecticut Special Election Report


When Buck Havich resigned from his Senate seat to step into the Vice Presidency the clock started on the race to find his successor. After a race filled with twists and turns, starting with the lack of an interim appointment to the seat by the Governor going into a dramatic party change by Amb. Sadan Singh from Democratic to Progressive just before the primaries and culminating just two days ago with the Vice President who had stayed out of the race completely beforehand making a public speech of non endorsement the votes have been cast and are coming in to find our victor.

Both primaries were contested early and became uncompetitive late. A neck and neck race between Singh and Old Dan Schmidt on the Democratic side turned into an easy Schmidt victory once Singh had pulled out from the campaign. While Singh's name stayed on the Democratic ballot and could collect votes, Democrats overwhelmingly checked the box for the Mayor of Derby. In the GOP primary a three way race emerged between embattled conservative Jaffson Ruger, longtime Congressman William Brennan and political newcomer Carter Roberts. The race soon cleared into a Brennan vs Roberts contest with Roberts polling higher with the aid of independents but Brennan having stronger support among registered party members but the two way ended with Brennan surprisingly announcing he was dropping out, leaving Roberts with the win.

The three way race between Schmidt, Roberts, and Singh also showed signs of narrowing after illness kept Schmidt out of the race's debate leaving only Singh and Roberts on the stage in a back and forth contest which Singh was considered by most analysts to win a modest victory in. The last stages of the campaign however were most notable not for what the candidates themselves did but the outside support they received. Dan Schmidt was limited to tweeting for his campaign but saw the largest amount of support from his party with various notables including DCCC Chair Jared O'Leary and Minority Leader Antonio De Nieto rallying support for him and the party funding a TV ad in his favor. Singh picked up support from Sen. Reginaldo Alphonsey of California in both rallies and advertisements from the "Solidarity" PAC while Roberts got a visit from the First Lady who reportedly made calls to voters for the Roberts campaign and got aid on the airwaves from PAC groups.

The biggest appearance of the campaign came almost at the end of it with Vice President Buck Havich returning from a diplomatic trip to the UK to give a speech in New Haven where he publicly stated he would not endorse a candidate in the campaign but urged Connecticut voters not to vote for Singh, who he argued would carry on a corrupt legacy of Winston. The Republican but famously moderate Havich gave qualified praise to both Roberts and Schmidt but endorsed neither quickly giving rise to hurried reports and a war of contested narratives over the meaning of the speech itself and what it meant for the election as the state prepared to go to the polls. We go to them now.

The most immediately noticeable election outcome could be seen in the total numbers of votes cast with turnout at a major low with under one million ballots received. Lower turnout in general had been predicted by some political commentators due to the election timing, but the fulfillment of those predictions was on a dramatic scale. Presidential elections often see major turnout and midterms lower numbers, but an off year special election with no other concurrent races showed itself to be another step below. An odd Thursday election may have confused voters and a vote in the early summer had different dynamics than a late fall vote all combining to see the vote total from 2016 nearly halved. The decline was sharpest among young people, with voters under thirty shrinking significantly as a portion of the electorate while older voters declined in turnout at a lower rate.

Low turnout elections have historically favored Republicans nationally but while older and whiter voters still turned out in higher numbers Republican turnout relatively declined from previous elections, including Buck Havich's broad victory in the 2012 election, even after accounting for the overall decrease. While the decline was relative to advantageous turnout numbers in the past and lessened while not eliminating a typical advantage of the GOP the shift was contrasted with a relative increase in turnout from registered Democrats. Due to the recency of the party coming into power reliable Progressive turnout figures are not available while independent turnout declined as was generally predicted in an off year election. Theories over the shift range from a lack of enthusiasm over the Republican candidate due to either an overly moderate platform, or the lack of endorsement from the popular Vice President, or the absence of Governor Denisevich who was renowned for his ability to push voters to the polls in elections though the Governor did return to the state to rally support for Roberts. The Democratic rise has potential causes in external or internal forces, with pushes from outside Democrat leaders raised as a possibility, while motivation among more partisan voters against Singh, who had left the party after running for it in the primary, given as an alternative. Polls for favorability of the candidates among voters from all three parties saw a sizeable nexus of Democrats whose opinion of Singh was "highly unfavorable" exceeding Republican leaner numbers while Schmidt was relatively more popular among Progressives. The opposition was not universal in the party however with registered Democrats who crossed party lines to vote for Singh unsurprisingly more favorable to him. Unfavorable ratings of Singh correlated well among Democrats with both favorable views of their party and length of time in the party.

Both Roberts and Singh struggled at times to connect to their respective bases. Fairly liberal positions on gun control and healthcare, including promoting a bump stock ban and maintaining the structure of the ACA or even implementing universal healthcare components, as well as a partial backtrack from socially conservative transgender comments during the debate reportedly dimmed the enthusiasm of some members of the Republican base while Singh took heat from members of his new Progressive party for course reversals in the general election debate, not committing to federal action against the death penalty he had previously been a vicious opponent on and moving from what had previously been described as a firm anti-war view to charging that opponents of military action to destroy ISIS should be cast out of the public discourse. While Schmidt was not immune to some difficulties with a question on his approval of Senator Clark an early issue, his campaign struggled more often with the issues of the candidate's illness and absence from the campaign trail sapping enthusiasm and weakening his position and publicity. Of the three candidates Schmidt had the highest overall approval rating from members of his own party and the smallest number by a large percentage of party members who were unfavorable towards their own party's candidate with Singh having the largest block of party unfavorables and Roberts having a similar group. Both Roberts and Singh however had larger portions of their party that rated their candidate very highly with Singh exceeding Robert in that area. Exit polls where voters were asked to label the reasons for their negative outlooks on their same party candidates had Roberts most often labeled as a negative for "weakness" or "inexperience" also listed as a criticism while Singh faced the label of "untrustworthy" by a large margin.

When it came down to the vote, voters mostly stuck with their party, which was most significant in the Schmidt campaign. While Republican registration has increased in Connecticut since 2010 under the Denisevich administration and saw an uptick in the controversies of 2016 Democratic affiliated voters still were the largest bloc in the state, and with the new Progressives unsurprisingly the smallest they were a bloc of voters that Singh needed to perform well in to boost his numbers near to the others. After the Democratic primaries saw former Singh leaners go heavily for Schmidt the process of winning those Democrats into a different party was a watched one even while Singh tried to win hearts in his new party. Independents who were voting in the Democratic primary who had reported from switching from leaning Singh to voting Schmidt after the defection flowed over to Singh for the general, but while Singh got a slight net pickup among registered Democrats who had switched from him to Schmidt the group as a whole stayed largely by their candidate. A small but real number of Progressive voters crossed lines to vote for Schmidt though outnumbered heavily by Democrats who went to Singh and vote transfer between Republicans and Progressives was almost nonexistent as expected.

The Independent battleground was where the fight was most clearly between Roberts and Singh. Good numbers in taking a majority of registered Democrats was enough to push Schmidt into the area of contention but while he wasn't impotent in the area Schmidt could not match either the Republican or the Progressive in gathering up independents with both of the two in greater need of those voters to boost their smaller party numbers. Both candidates had been especially effective with independent voters in their primaries with Roberts leading only based on independent votes before Brennan dropped out of the race and Singh taking most of his support from independents as well and keeping more support from them after dropping out. Both candidates had groups of relatively high enthusiasm among independent voters with Singh getting high marks from independents who described themselves more ideologically as left leaning while Roberts rated highly among independents who described themselves as "apolitical" or who were voting for the first time. That group for Roberts distinguished itself with notably higher turnout than is typical for the little engaged group while Singh pushed his own supporters into turnout nearer to registered party members. Singh took a narrow overall plurality in voting Independents.

Racially Singh made inroads with Hispanic voters while struggling with whites, while African American voters largely stayed to the Democratic party, with Roberts improving on typically low Republican numbers though not by major swing margins and Singh siphoning off some votes. The typically Democratic leaning Asian block in Connecticut split almost evenly three ways with Roberts taking a slim plurality doing especially well among older Asians. Older white voters were Singh's biggest no go zone with Roberts and Schmidt dominating the bloc. The young white Schmidt ended up losing the vote among young whites to the older minority Singh, who saw his numbers generally decline with age.

When the ultimate totals came together these were the results

Mr. Carter Roberts-37.4%
Amb. Sadan Singh-33.1%
May. Carter "Old Dan" Schmidt-26.9%
Mr. Louie Hannar (L)-1.8%
Mr. Drake Umlaut (I)-0.4%
Mr. Ban Jenkins (I)-0.4%

The win was expected to be a plurality, and it turned out just that way with Carter Roberts taking the win with under forty percent of the vote.

As the first Congressional election following the dramatic shakeup of the electoral system that was 2016, political questions waiting for answers were everywhere, both nationally and in Connecticut, and the special election has at least given hints to what the answers may be.

Is the Progressive Party for real?

The last time the United States had a major third party bid for the Presidency before 2016 was the 1992 election that had Peter Ross make a campaign strong enough to challenge both Tom Pallot and Owen B.K. Shrub. Ross faded over the stretch after temporarily dropping out but Walton in 2016 did not pulling through to a record second place finish and unlike Ross seeing congressional wins as well include Senate wins in California and Ohio. Ross's Reform Party wasn't made until after the election and outside of an odd success in a Governors race in independent minded Minnesota by a candidate who later left the party it never made progress. Partisan and unaffiliated watchers were waiting to see in Connecticut if the 2016 challenge to the two party system could be maintained and all indications after the race are a resounding Yes. In a state with a plurality of Democrat voters and a consistent history of going blue in Presidential elections Singh ran more than six points ahead of the Democratic candidate Mayor Dan Schmidt despite the efforts of major Democrat power players to boost the candidacy which struggled after an illness suffered by Schmidt. Schmidt still got a majority of Democrats but Singh dominated him in Independents while taking some members of his party for his own. It was clear almost from the beginning that Singh's campaign was a major party campaign more than it was a third party one and the outcome only confirmed it.

But there is a second side to the question. The elected members of the Progressive Party are made up of two classes of "natives" and "immigrants" to use temporary terms. Natives are politicians who were members of the former Green Party or ran for the first time as Progressives, with examples being Walton herself and Senators Alphonsey and Enchanted. Immigrants are former members of the Democratic Party who hopped over the fence to join the Progressives, including VP nominee Governor Denver, and Senators Kingston and Hadid. In the 2016 election the "natives" had a strong run, with Enchanted and Alphonsey both being elected as well as Governor Jacob Bellinger-Frank in Washington. Singh however is an immigrant and while comparing Senate and Gubernatorial races is already dicey and comparing general election and primary results is even more dicey that factor may be significant. In the recent New Jersey primaries all eyes were on the Democratic race between Tony Schlang and Joh Stansky and the victory of Samantha Soberman in the Progressive primary was almost seen as an afterthought. Singh was immediately a major player in the Connecticut race....but Singh started out a Democrat in the Democratic primary. In the 2016 election Walton qualified for national debates and her name and publicity made the Progressive party noticed, but if it turns out that Progressives can only make large enough waves by starting as Democrats, there could be worries about the party's sustainability as time rolls on.

Is Connecticut's moderate Republican fling fading?

On first glance with a moderate Republican victory on the board the immediate answer would seem to be "no." Roberts's term is only going to be for a year and a half before he has to stand for reelection however and a deeper look casts doubts on whether the recent successes from the party are reaching the end of their lifespan. Buck Havich's victory in 2006 was the first Republican win since 1982 but came in a unique contest that shared some similarities with this special election with the incumbent Senator defeated in the primary, but running as an independent to create a three way race. Havich's win was not seen as a symbol of things to come until 2010 started to turn heads with the GOP striking again with twin victories. A Republican winning the Governor's mansion was not a major surprise in a state friendly to moderate Republicans for that office but a thirty year old political unknown doing it surprised many, and the trend continued. Havich fought off a conservative primary challenge and cruised to victory in 2012 alongside Winston winning the state handily and Denisevich was reelected in 2014 along with major GOP wins in the state legislature and the second Senate seat in a special election. Much was made of Denisevich's 'machine' and its success and it appeared that at least outside of Presidential elections that the GOP had found out how to make moderate candidates win in Connecticut.

This special election didn't follow the trend. While Denisevich himself flew in to reportedly meet with political allies the machine did not bring the turnout that it had in the past and the vote totals were nowhere close to where they had been. After majority victories Roberts could not hit a 40% number that other Republican candidates had exceeded before Denisevich had come into office and the question of the Vice President's non endorsement has more questions raised about what the internal state of affairs of the party is that had floated below the surface after the oddness of longtime rep William Brennan dropping out of the primary while still in a close race, though Brennan did offer at least a partial endorsement of Roberts.

Roberts will not have long in office before he needs to defend his new seat in the 2018 midterms and the party would be right to have some concerns. A midterm election means higher turnout and the likelihood of regression to the mean for Reed administration approval ratings could be a negative for the voting share of any Republican candidate. A race with a popular President to succeed a very popular incumbent in an off year election should have been an easy run for a Republican candidate, but the end result was far too close for comfort for most. Whether an odd blip of the voters or something more serious is something the party will need to figure out before they have to defend the seat again.

Can the Democrats bounce back?

Unless there is a schadenfreude that comes from the defeat of a Progressive the Democrats do not look like they have much to be grateful for after seeing the Connecticut returns. Their candidate seemed promising, a young attractive Mayor with no connections to Winston or major blemishes on his record who could be a fresh face for the party in the state. The end outcome of that, just barely over a quarter of the vote, is not what was expected or hoped for. Whether Schmidt's illness is a valid explanation or a convenient excuse may turn into yet another fight for a more and more embattled state party.

The rise of the GOP in Connecticut paired right up against a decline in fortunes of the Democratic party. Aggressive actions against unions by Denisevich and controversial civil service changes wounded Democratic party operations in the state that were already struggling to deal with a series of defeats in gubernatorial elections and now a flopped candidate running well behind a third party former member of their own party is another sign of the difficulty the party faces where even the big guns of Minority Leader De Nieto and DCCC Chair Jared O'Leary could not push Schmidt over the finish line or even close to it.

The glass half full look would be to point at relatively higher turnout from registered Democrats and Schmidt still winning over that group as positive and encouraging signs. The glass half empty look would point out that their candidate could not match the others with independents outside of the party and that they still lost in party votes to a non party member even after the shrinking of the number of registered Democrats from those who departed to register with the Progressive Party. The party has not won a statewide election since 2010 and has not won the Governor's office for a stunning thirty years. While the actions of Denisevich make him a convenient scapegoat the party might have more deep set problems than those that were caused by a thirty year old Governor elect. If the Republican machine is faltering then the hope would be that now is the Democrats time to surge back up and take back the Governors mansion and Senate seat in 2018, but with a malfunctioning machine and questions over whether that is even the route that the party should take and a Progressive Party to deal with on top of it all the party has its work cut out for it.

Are pluralities the new normal?

It might be a bigger question than it sounds. Part of asking if pluralities are the new normal is asking whether the new three party system can set itself up and stay set up, and how that kind of system would even work if it did.

2016 had plenty for people who have a thing for plurality wins. They came in all shapes sizes and types. In Alaska, the Republican candidate narrowly won after beating out the Democrat with the Progressive in third, in Washington, the Democratic candidate narrowly won after beating out the Progressive with the Republican in third, in Iowa the Progressive candidate narrowly won after beating out the Republican with the Democrat in third, and in New York a four way split ended up with a Republican win against a Democrat, a Progressive, and the incumbent Independent who caucused with Democrats. (It was a big year for narrow elections too). Add in one more combination in Connecticut of R,P,D after R,D,P D,P,R and P,R,D and you've got a whole collection of wins under fifty.

Some states have the advantage of being able to sit back and say that it is someone else's problem. The jungle primary system used in some states means that the winner always gets a majority, because the final round can only be between two candidates (unless someone breaks fifty in the first round). Washington is actually one of the states that usually has this system with the 2016 election being an already criticized experiment with a standard election, but others still run it. California's top two system let Progressive Reginaldo Alphonsey take the win in the nation's most populous state in a race that a Democratic candidate splitting the left wing vote could have sunk him in, while in Louisiana there were no Democrats or Progressives to be seen as Republican Phillip Prejean had a race of right against right against former KKK member Jason Larson. You'll never see a plurality win in those states, but the question could be who it benefits when you only need to get second to get to a runoff. In a state like Louisiana it doesn't seem likely that any system in the immediate future would change Republican wins but California and Washington are different cases. On one hand, second could be as good as first for the left wing winner in a left leaning national environment with GOP wins in California and Washington only barely coming in the heavily GOP 2010 election with both seats lost in 2016. On the other hand, where the Progressives fall in a runoff race could still be in question. California in 2016 was a heavily anomalous race and difficult to draw conclusions from, but the question mostly comes down to who the left out party votes for. In a Republican vs Democrat contest the question would seem to be easiest to answer as it seems doubtful that Progressive voters would swing over to the right side of the spectrum just to combat a Democrat with the party split so young, but how would the other two setups fare? In a Republican vs Progressive matchup would moderate Democrats side with the GOP instead of moving further left than their own candidate to a party that could either be seen as an ally or a rival? And in a Democrat vs Progressive matchup would Republicans join up their votes with their traditional opponents or try to undermine them? In Washington and California especially as liberal states with strong Progressives bases the question is an intriguing political one but if more states start to move in the top two direction more discussion is sure to be had.

For the majority of states though the first past the post system remains and at present it does seem like pluralities are here to stay. How sustainable they are is going to relate to the national three party environment as noted. If the Republicans see split votes as an opportunity to advance more conservative candidates after instances such as the chaotic win in New York then they may give up some moderate voters to the Democrats and see more of a right vs center vs left contest emerge. If looked at regionally instead of ideologically the Democrat and Progressive parties could potentially start to self select into the areas where they are strongest, with the Democrats hypothetically giving up the Progressive stronghold of Washington and the Progressives theoretically not contesting more machine heavy states such as New York or Rhode Island. Of course, that leaves a lot in the middle. Where would a rust belt state go? Theoretically a Democrat would have the better odds, but the Enchanted victory in Ohio and a number of Democratic gubernatorial defections in the region raise questions on that idea. Could the shift see Republicans concentrating themselves back in their own states while conservative Democrats such as Brankers start a new reverse Dixiecrat trend from the center or center right in states such as Washington?

The long term answer can't be gotten without answering the unanswerable of how the parties will select. In the short term though, keep an eye on New York and New Jersey, and maybe don't be too surprised if a fortysomething percent wins it.

How long will Winston's legacy loom?

At least a little while longer it seems. Drawing comparisons to Winston was a favorite on every side in the race. Singh took the biggest brunt of it with his indictment for campaign finance violations supporting the Winston campaign and subsequent appointment as Ambassador to India a favorite line of attack (Singh was cleared of all charges in a scrutinized decision) but the shots went both ways with a Singh supporting advertisement from the Solidarity PAC taking aim at Roberts's healthcare plan by comparing it to Winston's. Comparing an opponent to the most unpopular President in American history and the only one to be removed from office is not surprisingly seen as an easy attack to make though its effectiveness can be disputed. Among voters who said that a candidates relation to Winston or Winston's legacy was "very important" Singh was hammered, but those voters were a minority of the public and one that the traditional expectation would have as a shrinking one, with the old adage of time healing all wounds. Shrub's unpopularity gave Democrats big wins in 2006 and 2008, but by 2010 the Republicans were surging back. Shrub's lack of public support can't be perfectly compared to Winston's, who was actually convicted before his suicide, and may last longer as a result, but at least for the immediate future whether or not it works as well as they hope it will it doesn't seem likely that Winston's name is going to be used much more than as a label for attacks.

Some questions answered and more questions raised, as more special elections draw closer with their own angles to question, stay with TNS for all of it.


Other Election Results

Los Angeles Mayoral

The Los Angeles Mayoral race was brought into the public eye mostly by a bizarre TV debate between comedy host and former Governor Scotty Marlowe and incumbent Mayor Taylor Cox on the Truth Revolution network but the final runoff vote has only one of the two candidates. Cox, who has been notable for oddities ranging from a pool incident to a statue of himself outside of city hall withdrew from the race leaving it between Marlowe and Progressive candidate Baker Springtime. Springtime won a plurality in the first round, but under L.A. Mayoral rules a runoff is held if neither candidate reaches fifty percent. The better known Marlowe was favored in the race after returning from a political hiatus, but the final vote didn't show as heavy a favoring. While enough of a gap to allow some breathing room the final tally of 51.7% for Marlowe and 48.3% for Springtime was a surprisingly strong showing for the relatively unknown Progressive. The LA Mayoral race is officially nonpartisan but Springtime had identified himself as a Progressive while Marlowe has continued as a Democrat through his political career though some sources believe he has "flirted" with the Progressive party. The win brings Marlowe back into California politics that he had historically been a major figure in, though the scope of his positions has been on a downward slope, going from the Governorship to Attorney General and now to Mayor of Los Angeles. While Marlowe has been quiet on the subject some reports of rumors over a possible 2020 Presidential bid have been floated though without any corroboration from Marlowe or his campaign team, but have only now grown louder after Marlowe made a surprise visit to Iowa. A change in the Los Angeles charter will make this term an extended one that runs through the beginning of 2023.


Oklahoma Special Senate

Connecticut won most of the news but a delayed Senate special election in Oklahoma had its vote come in this week as well, but a race that no one expected to be close wasn't as the tiniest underdog chances did not come close to panning out. Longtime Senator and Representative Gene Eric who had stepped down from the position to assume the Presidency after the suicide of Albert Winston easily won reelection in the state with over seventy percent of the vote, a whopping margin that was not far out of line of other Senate elections in the deeply red state. Eric's Democratic challenger failed to gather up any money from national Democratic sources and barely made it over twenty percent of the vote while a grassroots Progressive effort made a decent showing just breaking six and a half percent. Eric returning to the Senate where he is expected to take his former position of President Pro Tempore once again gives the Republicans an extra vote in the chamber from the previously vacant seat and may prove valuable in potential tight future filibuster votes especially with the New Mexico seat functionally vacant in the absence of Senator Villanueva de Pena.


State Legislative News

Minnesota

RLSA bills all across the country continue to be debated in state legislatures and Governors mansions with different levels of cooperation and animosity. In Minnesota the process has had mixed in the insistence of Governor Jim Justice that an RLSA bill include his signature "Gophercare" reform. The "Gophercare" reform would use RLSA funds to provide children health coverage via schools with the expansion of medical coverage available there, which Justice claims would be cheaper, easier for parents, and better for children but which opponents have criticized as a costly government expansion. Both chambers in Minnesota have strong Republican majorities but Governor Justice sits in a unique spot as a member of the Minnesota Independence Party, a fourth party that has usually leaned towards fiscally conservative socially liberal policy though Justice has had a more fiscally liberal record. Justice rallied to the public directly to drum up support for the proposal instead of meeting with legislative leaders. The Gophercare amendment came up for vote twice but was narrowly defeated, with primarily Republicans opposing and a multi party mix of supporters. A lengthy contested session running up to the legislative deadline eventually sent an RLSA bill and budget to the Governor's desk without Gophercare and including general reforms which the Republican leader called "fiscally responsible" but was criticized by a Democratic figure as "harsh austerity" including a major lowering of the qualifying ceiling for Medicaid elimination of certain benefits and a reworked structure for claiming other benefits including a higher retirement age. It is unknown if Governor Justice will sign the bill.

Washington State

In Washington State a state government split between a newly elected Progressive Governor and a legislature that flipped over to Republican control has been in special session over an "emergency" RLSA bill that would temporarily increase payroll taxes to keep benefits at past levels. The temporary increase has been supported by Governor Jacob Bellinger-Frank but was defeated in a floor vote by Republican opposition with Democrats and Progressives in the legislature voting as a bloc in favor. A Republican Senate leader said that the party "Rejects another increase in taxes on the middle class" while a Senate Progressive said "This is yet another cutting of the social safety net by irresponsible Republicans." Without the tax increase entitlement benefits will be reduced to be brought into line with state tax revenues which could drop benefits by as much as one quarter.

New Jersey

The state of New Jersey looks like it will be entering a government shutdown after the failure of a final last minute budget and RLSA bill promoted by the Governor Melissa Hotchkiss. Hotchkiss's original RLSA bill passed the Senate narrowly but was defeated in the General Assembly leading to blaming comments on both sides and attempts to create another bill that could make it through both chambers and past the Governor's desk. The revised bill softened the initial legislation leading to criticism from some Republican legislative candidates who had primaried sitting members. One new Republican candidate stated "The first bill was already too much compromise, and now we're giving up even more? This bill barely has anything left to it". Increases to some side and excise taxes in New Jersey including cigarette and gas taxes were included in the new bill along with a scaling down of some cost cutting portions of the original. The bill successfully passed the State Senate by a larger margin than the previous incarnation with the Republican vote holding together joined by a larger number of Democrats and seemed poised to pass the General Assembly before a series of last minute reversals left it a single vote short. With no other immediate proposals on the floor the bill failing looks likely to cause the New Jersey government to shut down from the lack of a budget closing state parks and furloughing an estimated 30,000 state workers.


Michigan

Following the resignation of longtime Democratic Senator and former Minority Leader Josephine Stafford, the decision for her replacement under Michigan law was left up to a member of another party, the Governor William Hughes a former Democrat who switched to the Green later Progressive Party in 2016. Sen Stafford issued a preemptive criticism urging the Governor to "take heed to (her) recommendations" and said she would be "disappointed" if he "decided to put party over policies and people". Stafford's statements were hit back against by a surprising source without a stake in the fight with Florida Independent Zipporah Hazelelponi criticizing her for "leaving before (she) finished the job" and saying that the "Governor should pick whoever he wants, and I don't see why you should get a say." Whether or not the tweets had any effect the Governor's selection was not a Democrat as Stafford was but a member of the Progressive Party, who becomes the sixth member of that party in the chamber and the second from the Midwest, weakening an already historically small Democratic minority in that chamber and further boosting the Progressives's record of having the most Senate seats of any third party since the start of the Republican vs Democrat two party system.

[Democratic Peoples republic of Kelvinsi]

William B. Brennan
@CTBrennan
I would like to congratulate my dear friend Carter Roberts for his win in the Senate. I look forward to serving with him in Congress.

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William B. Brennan
@CTBrennan
The CT GOP is a proud and independent entity that represents the interests of all Nutmeggers. Unlike so many other state parties, the Republican Party of Connecticut is more than willing to put Nutmeggers over party partisanship.

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[Federal States of Xathuecia]

iamMarliO @iamMarliO VERY VERY happy wit Connecticut's election results! Glad to see tru conservatives winnin' instead of radicals n if I can make dis win happen in New York, I'll be mo' den proud to be servin' alongside such an honorable man like Carter Roberts! #TruConservatives #HappyWitDeResults #GO-CART!

[Vaquas]

Sadan Chaudhari Singh
@SinghForConnecticut

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I congratulate my opponent on his victory, and hope he will serve Connecticut well over the next year and a half. This movement does not stop tonight, and it will not stop when we defeat Carter Roberts in 2018. Our fight for women, for LGBT people, for veterans, for people of color, for the disabled, for immigrants, and for a society that works for the many instead of the few will not stop until we can proudly say that we have achieved total equality under the law and made America the example it was always meant to be. Don't give up, because while another blow to progress has been dealt tonight, its going to take a lot more than that to take us down.

[Federal States of Xathuecia]

Julie Mondale @NotThatMondale I would like to extend my congratulations to newly elected Senator Carter Roberts and returning Senator Gene Eric. Both men of outstanding character and who will serve their states with respect, honor, and morals. I am very pleased to see their victories across this great nation.

[Tallahassee News Station]

Jared O'Leary
@OYeah

Make no mistake that the Republican win in Connecticut tonight comes completely from the selfishness greed and egotism of Sadan Singh. He was the Republican party's best friend in all of this and thanks to him Amaras, Kramer, and Winslow have another vote to continue their regressive agenda

Jared O'Leary
@OYeah

If Singh had done the honorable thing and accepted his loss in the primary then we would be seeing a Democrat who would fight against the worst parts of the right winning today, but because he childishly took his toys and went to be Walton's lackey a Republican so conservative the VP wouldn't endorse him won with only 37%

Jared O'Leary
@OYeah

Everything the Republican Senate majority does over these next two years is on Singh's head. I hope you're proud of yourself

[Federal States of Xathuecia]

Scotty Marlowe @BeamMeUpScotty I am proud to have achieved this victory and I am beyond excited to take the helm of Los Angeles. To be elected Mayor is an honor and I intend to serve with the same values and stances that I ran on. I will not forget those who helped me throughout this campaign nor the many, many people of this great city who voted for a new vision for L.A.

Scotty Marlowe @BeamMeUpScotty I extend a hand to Mr. Springtime and while we ran as opponents, we share many parts of the vision I have laid out for this city. I know that our city can once again come together to prepare itself for the changes that are set to come, from the notion of progressive justice to renewed ideas of environmentalism, from generating new opportunities to starting the first steps towards better healthcare.

Scotty Marlowe @BeamMeUpScotty Expect a full announcement later tonight and preparations later this week for the transition of power. I hope to work diligently with Mayor Cox to ensure a smooth transition and one that keeps the focus on Los Angeles and her people. This election is a message from all those across this city that action needed and soon City Hall will resoundingly answer.

[Federal States of Xathuecia]

Josephine Stafford @StaffordStrong Governor Hughes has proved once again he simply believes more in his party's politicking and partisanship. The Progressive he appointed to the Senate is troubling, for he has rejected the very people who elected him to the chair he resides on now. But I know that come 2018, we will sweep the hyperpartisan and egotistical Progressives from the Senatorial and Gubernatorial seats.

[Federal States of Xathuecia]

Eleanor McCroskey @ANewFlame Congrats /Mayor/ Scotty Marlowe! Glad to see a great man return to politics, at a time when sensible and respectable politicians are sorely lacking. Also very happy to see him run on progressive and liberal values, with a platform geared towards making a difference for all of those in his city.

[Puertollano]

Joh Stansky @GiveJohaGo! Congratulations Mayor Scotty Marlowe. A real progressive voice for Los Angeles, California, and America!

[Tallahassee News Station]

(Image) Eleanor McCroskey @ANewFlame Congrats /Mayor/ Scotty Marlowe! Glad to see a great man return to politics, at a time when sensible and respectable politicians are sorely lacking. Also very happy to see him run on progressive and liberal values, with a platform geared towards making a difference for all of those in his city. (Image)

Anita Flores
@TruthRevolution

Get him to cut property taxes so you two can get a room

[Puertollano]

Joh Stansky @GiveJohaGo! A government shutdown in New Jersey will be terrible. Our politicians need to get their act together otherwise they'll be thrown out at the next election.