Washington 2017: The U.S. Political RP [CLOSED] OOC Pt. XI

[Democratic Peoples republic of Kelvinsi]

THE PURGE IS- hey that’s a great idea!

Is Brennan’s District more rural, urban, or suburban? Morton’s going to look for more funding for agriculture, fruit growers in particular- urban voters need something of course, so I’ll gave to look into that.

It's suburban/rural mostly. CT-5

Most notable for being the district where Newtown happened

[Sanabel]

It's suburban/rural mostly. CT-5

Most notable for being the district where Newtown happened

Knowing the district and having been a staffer on multiple campaigns since, I can say Newtown has had a far lower impact on races here than one would think.

[Uttland]

Heritage March tmr, so hopefully I should have Hooks speak early morning irl, and given Kramer won’t beaver to speak til Tuesday irl, I’m gunning for either Williams (@at Kelv, you’ve been tged) or Hobbes (@Alozy) to go after, and then whoever hasn’t gone can go at the end of the March

[Democratic Peoples republic of Kelvinsi]

I am going to try a very experimental form of writing with a certain character from now on.

[Uttland]

I am going to try a very experimental form of writing with a certain character from now on.

The cut-up method?

[Sanabel]

Stansky is going to New Hampshire.

Could he be running for President in 2020?

[Vaquas]

Potential 2020 Democratic Primary:

California Congressman Donald Johnson
Florida Governor Esperanza Huerta
Former California Governor Ray Ramirez
Illinois Congresswoman Nicole Smith
Illinois Senator Thomas Brady
Maine Governor Claudia Patton
Maryland Senator Anthony Conti
Massachusetts Senator Jason Samara
Trenton Mayor Joh Stansky
United States Attorney General Alicia Florrick
Virginia Governor Moses Clearwater

[Sanabel]

Potential 2020 Democratic Primary:

California Congressman Donald Johnson
Florida Governor Esperanza Huerta
Former California Governor Ray Ramirez
Illinois Congresswoman Nicole Smith
Illinois Senator Thomas Brady
Maine Governor Claudia Patton
Maryland Senator Anthony Conti
Massachusetts Senator Jason Samara
Trenton Mayor Joh Stansky
United States Attorney General Alicia Florrick
Virginia Governor Moses Clearwater

That's actually a decent bench.

[Sanabel]

Potential 2020 Democratic Primary, cut to active characters:

California Congressman Donald Johnson
Florida Governor Esperanza Huerta
Illinois Congresswoman Nicole Smith
Maine Governor Claudia Patton
Massachusetts Senator Jason Samara
Trenton Mayor Joh Stansky
United States Attorney General Alicia Florrick
Virginia Governor Moses Clearwater

[Vaquas]

Forgot Adkins

[Sanabel]

Forgot Adkins

The next question is, how do you order them in terms of likelihood of winning

[Vaquas]

Forgot Adkins

The next question is, how do you order them in terms of likelihood of winning

To run or to win because those are very different lists

[Sanabel]

The next question is, how do you order them in terms of likelihood of winning

To run or to win because those are very different lists

To win

[Democratic Peoples republic of Kelvinsi]

I am going to try a very experimental form of writing with a certain character from now on.

The cut-up method?

The diary method

[Bruke]

I am going to try a very experimental form of writing with a certain character from now on.

The cut-up method?

What’s the cut up method?

[Bruke]

Potential 2020 Democratic Primary:

California Congressman Donald Johnson
Florida Governor Esperanza Huerta
Former California Governor Ray Ramirez
Illinois Congresswoman Nicole Smith
Illinois Senator Thomas Brady
Maine Governor Claudia Patton
Maryland Senator Anthony Conti
Massachusetts Senator Jason Samara
Trenton Mayor Joh Stansky
United States Attorney General Alicia Florrick
Virginia Governor Moses Clearwater

I’d put my money on Huerta, Patton, Samara, or Clearwater

[Democratic Peoples republic of Kelvinsi]

Potential 2020 Democratic Primary, cut to active characters:

California Congressman Donald Johnson
Florida Governor Esperanza Huerta
Illinois Congresswoman Nicole Smith
Maine Governor Claudia Patton
Massachusetts Senator Jason Samara
Trenton Mayor Joh Stansky
United States Attorney General Alicia Florrick
Virginia Governor Moses Clearwater

Here are some of my ramblings

Florida Governor Esperanza Huerta
-Obvious Frontrunner, as huge name recognition, strong Hispanic support, and massive distance from the DNC debacle. That is not to say that she does not have any downsides. She clearly has made an enemy of the establishment which means that there is a strong possibility that one candidate would be able to get enough of the "Not Huerta" vote to win. 25-30% she takes it. Conditionally good VP depending on the Dem Nominee, though she may not take it.


Massachusetts Senator Jason Samara
-Good name recognition, has not angered the establishment to the point where they would muster an "Anybody but Samara" campaign. Strong black credentials, definitely appeals more to the liberal wing of the party. However, he has. Excellent VP candidate.

Maine Governor Claudia Patton
-She has all of the conservative and a good chunk of moderate Democrat support behind her. The key is whether or not she can appear to be liberal enough for the liberal chunk of the party to stomach. Praise by Amaras is not going to help her. Poor VP candidate.

Illinois Congresswoman Nicole Smith
-Probably going to be De Nieto's preferred candidate in the race. The strong backing of the House Democrats would lead to a good start in the race. However, she is emotionally challenged and may breakdown during the campaign. Excellent VP candidate.

United States Attorney General Alicia Florrick
-Strong name recognition, however, is strongly connected to the Reed admin, which looks like it is about to careen off a cliff. Poor VP candidate.

Virginia Governor Moses Clearwater
-Strong black support where is known, little name recognition. Generally moderate and inoffensive. Good VP pick.

California Congressman Donald Johnson
-If he wins, he wins by being the puppet of De Nieto. He has his loyal cousins with decent political clout and are willing to die for him. He is for the most part palatable enough for the establishment to stomach, with him being in agreement with everything except guns. However, his eccentric speeches and debating style is a massive albatross. Use if nobody else wants the VP slot.

Trenton Mayor Joh Stansky
-No. He is going to capture almost none of the Jewish vote, has limited minority support, and though he has relatively strong support among the unions that will definetely not be enough. Especially since the entire establishment will go into "Anybody but Stansky" mode if he gains traction. Furthermore, he also reminds everyone of Danders, which is not a good association 4 years down. Very poor VP pick.

[Martune]

Considering coming back, I just need more things to do on here. Is there any possible run down of what the hell has happened?

[Puertollano]

Stansky is going to New Hampshire.

Could he be running for President in 2020?

Possibly. It depends if I'm still around for then (which is 3 years).

[Alozia]

Potential 2020 Democratic Primary:

California Congressman Donald Johnson
Florida Governor Esperanza Huerta
Former California Governor Ray Ramirez
Illinois Congresswoman Nicole Smith
Illinois Senator Thomas Brady
Maine Governor Claudia Patton
Maryland Senator Anthony Conti
Massachusetts Senator Jason Samara
Trenton Mayor Joh Stansky
United States Attorney General Alicia Florrick
Virginia Governor Moses Clearwater

[Uttland]

The cut-up method?

What’s the cut up method?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cut-up_technique

William S. Burroughs' specialty. Basically, you write one coherent text and then you cut it up and rearrange it into something else.

[Sanabel]

Potential 2020 Democratic Primary, cut to active characters:

California Congressman Donald Johnson
Florida Governor Esperanza Huerta
Illinois Congresswoman Nicole Smith
Maine Governor Claudia Patton
Massachusetts Senator Jason Samara
Trenton Mayor Joh Stansky
United States Attorney General Alicia Florrick
Virginia Governor Moses Clearwater

Here are some of my ramblings

Florida Governor Esperanza Huerta
-Obvious Frontrunner, as huge name recognition, strong Hispanic support, and massive distance from the DNC debacle. That is not to say that she does not have any downsides. She clearly has made an enemy of the establishment which means that there is a strong possibility that one candidate would be able to get enough of the "Not Huerta" vote to win. 25-30% she takes it. Conditionally good VP depending on the Dem Nominee, though she may not take it.


Massachusetts Senator Jason Samara
-Good name recognition, has not angered the establishment to the point where they would muster an "Anybody but Samara" campaign. Strong black credentials, definitely appeals more to the liberal wing of the party. However, he has. Excellent VP candidate.

Maine Governor Claudia Patton
-She has all of the conservative and a good chunk of moderate Democrat support behind her. The key is whether or not she can appear to be liberal enough for the liberal chunk of the party to stomach. Praise by Amaras is not going to help her. Poor VP candidate.

Illinois Congresswoman Nicole Smith
-Probably going to be De Nieto's preferred candidate in the race. The strong backing of the House Democrats would lead to a good start in the race. However, she is emotionally challenged and may breakdown during the campaign. Excellent VP candidate.

United States Attorney General Alicia Florrick
-Strong name recognition, however, is strongly connected to the Reed admin, which looks like it is about to careen off a cliff. Poor VP candidate.

Virginia Governor Moses Clearwater
-Strong black support where is known, little name recognition. Generally moderate and inoffensive. Good VP pick.

California Congressman Donald Johnson
-If he wins, he wins by being the puppet of De Nieto. He has his loyal cousins with decent political clout and are willing to die for him. He is for the most part palatable enough for the establishment to stomach, with him being in agreement with everything except guns. However, his eccentric speeches and debating style is a massive albatross. Use if nobody else wants the VP slot.

Trenton Mayor Joh Stansky
-No. He is going to capture almost none of the Jewish vote, has limited minority support, and though he has relatively strong support among the unions that will definetely not be enough. Especially since the entire establishment will go into "Anybody but Stansky" mode if he gains traction. Furthermore, he also reminds everyone of Danders, which is not a good association 4 years down. Very poor VP pick.

Clearwater probably has better name rec than that, as a famous author and film producer.

[Sanabel]

Now let's rank the 2020 Republican candidates under the assumption Reed does not run for re-election and Havich is not overwhelmingly strong.

[Tallahassee News Station]

Considering coming back, I just need more things to do on here. Is there any possible run down of what the hell has happened?

There's a linky in the op to a summary on the wiki.

[Tallahassee News Station]

Best case scenario for a highly competitive GOP primary would be Reed not running because of a big time popularity collapse. Hurts Havich and makes some other candidates possible

Sinclair and Yang are the big ones to benefit from that. They don't really have a good path to the nomination in any of the other Reed doesn't run scenarios but both were established anti Prez which would be a bonus here. I think Sinclair's got the better odds here with a more natural base and a demo profile+background that works better in a GOP primary.

Yang is going to have some trouble finding a base with being hardline conservative on abortion but pretty moderate on other social issues and mixed/lib econ. Being a part of the Winton takedown is nice, but being connected w/Rossi from that and the public defense after could hurt, especially if she's considered a Reed failure. What happens w/Rossi as a political chip is actually gonna be interesting, I bet she comes up in a pretty big way 2020. Probably wants to angle for the establishment, tricky but possible.

Amaras is the conventionally strongest with a war chest premade a wing of the party already mostly locked in and a big time home field advantage in Iowa. He's in a pretty good spot to still run as an outsider if Reed crashes+burns and coming down to him vs an establishment guy is pretty likely

Kramer obviously jumped in first and has his minibase. I think that Dillon won't have been a total killer come 2020, he's got a chance to mostly reintegrate (Noble on the other hand I think is mostly screwed basically no matter how low Reed's approval gets) but he's gonna be very old with some documented medical issues and flip flopping in his past, and I think Sinclair could end up eating him

Even with a lousy Reed Prez and we assume he got caught in the fall Havich is still a pretty strong candidate from position+experience+geography without any major challengers in the NE (Fowler could try, Brennan? But not a lot of traction). Has auto name rec and establishment friendly, he's got good odds of making it to the end.

Mondale definitely seems ambitious. Pretty decent candidate on paper, female gov with solid record from a Midwest swing state with foreign and domestic experience and only semiconnecred with Reed. UN controversy probably won't hit her too hard but she could end up being a paper tiger.

T Stevenson could mess up Havich in a fight that would be real bloody and fun in NE. Both are pretty heavily tied to Reed and at the same base, Stev could probably dodge a little more backlash but Havich is stronger, would be a great fight to watch, winner has the inside track on the establishment to maybe fight Am and Sincl

Kiser will be Kiser

Stephens is an interesting one. Semi tied to Reed, should have a fan club, but I think he'll just go the way of other heavily libertarian focused pubs, get some enthusiasm that doesn't translate into enough actual support

Plenty of other candidates who could take a shot, Locklear, K Stev, Roberts, Hookstraten, Winslow, Harrington. Could go crazy.