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by Arvenia » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:24 am
by Arvenia » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:16 am
The Free Territory of Makhnovia wrote:Sending pipe bombs in mail is viable.
by Plzen » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:34 am
Tracian Empire wrote:Russian Polish relations would be interesting. Because leaving the old hostility aside, the Whites probably never tried to invade Poland.
Tracian Empire wrote:Russia would certainly still be wary of Germany, and from the war, of Austria and Hungary. The Ottomans might also be a problem...
Tracian Empire wrote:Russia would probably drop all her claims against Poland.. but it will still seek to retake the Baltic states.
The Free Territory of Makhnovia wrote:Sending pipe bombs in mail is viable.
by Tracian Empire » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:50 am
Plzen wrote:Russian application is up?
*smiles*Tracian Empire wrote:Russian Polish relations would be interesting. Because leaving the old hostility aside, the Whites probably never tried to invade Poland.
If effective Russian-Polish co-operation emerge, that's an immediate red flag for anyone that might plausibly oppose Russia on one European matter or another. Poland is one of the biggest reason why Russia can't effectively intervene in European affairs, and without that roadblock...
Russia and Poland inherently have a lot of geopolitical friction, though, and one way or another you need to resolve this if you expect to establish real co-operation.Tracian Empire wrote:Russia would certainly still be wary of Germany, and from the war, of Austria and Hungary. The Ottomans might also be a problem...
Germany has been utterly humiliated, thoroughly disarmed, and is separated from Russia by Poland to boot. Their fascist militarism is quite a few years in the future. Russian officers on the western borders are going to be worried about Poland and Scandinavia, not a non-threat five hundred kilometers away.
Until Germany starts gearing up for war again - and that is a venture that will take years - what Berlin does or does not do has negligible influence on Russian security.Tracian Empire wrote:Russia would probably drop all her claims against Poland.. but it will still seek to retake the Baltic states.
If Russia retakes the Baltic States, Scandinavia will panic. The Russian navy is bigger than the Scandinavian navy - overwhelmingly so. The threat of a Russian army suddenly landing in Stockholm or Helsingfors suddenly becomes a possibility, and Scandinavian-Russian relations are never really warm.
They assume - incorrectly, but perfectly reasonably - that if the Russians wants to ship an army from Tallinn to Helsinki, they can. It is not yet known how utterly devastating a proper air force can be against an enemy navy unable to control the skies above itself.The Free Territory of Makhnovia wrote:Sending pipe bombs in mail is viable.
As a tool of terror, yes. As a tool of destabilisation, I don't really think so. Destabilisation is done by mass movements, and you don't gain many supporters through indiscriminate violence against the general population.
by New Granadeseret » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:16 am
Tracian Empire wrote:Plzen wrote:Russian application is up?
*smiles*
If effective Russian-Polish co-operation emerge, that's an immediate red flag for anyone that might plausibly oppose Russia on one European matter or another. Poland is one of the biggest reason why Russia can't effectively intervene in European affairs, and without that roadblock...
Russia and Poland inherently have a lot of geopolitical friction, though, and one way or another you need to resolve this if you expect to establish real co-operation.
Germany has been utterly humiliated, thoroughly disarmed, and is separated from Russia by Poland to boot. Their fascist militarism is quite a few years in the future. Russian officers on the western borders are going to be worried about Poland and Scandinavia, not a non-threat five hundred kilometers away.
Until Germany starts gearing up for war again - and that is a venture that will take years - what Berlin does or does not do has negligible influence on Russian security.
If Russia retakes the Baltic States, Scandinavia will panic. The Russian navy is bigger than the Scandinavian navy - overwhelmingly so. The threat of a Russian army suddenly landing in Stockholm or Helsingfors suddenly becomes a possibility, and Scandinavian-Russian relations are never really warm.
They assume - incorrectly, but perfectly reasonably - that if the Russians wants to ship an army from Tallinn to Helsinki, they can. It is not yet known how utterly devastating a proper air force can be against an enemy navy unable to control the skies above itself.
As a tool of terror, yes. As a tool of destabilisation, I don't really think so. Destabilisation is done by mass movements, and you don't gain many supporters through indiscriminate violence against the general population.
It all depends on recent Polish history, I suppose. The Poles did end up fighting against the Soviets in real life, so, if the same happened in here, the Poles would have been forced to cooperate with the White forces. And the Russian Civil War would have concluded with the Whites and the Poles allied, officially or just by necessity. That, combined with the internal frictions in Russia, and with already existing rivalries/threats in the forms of Scandinavia, the Ottomans, and on the other side of the world, Japan, could serve as the stepping stone of a cooperation of sorts. But that depends on multiple factors. For the time being at least, Russia's main interests lie in Bessarabia, the Baltics, and Finland, and not necessarily in Poland.
And that isn't about Russian security, it's about Russian revenge. You have to keep in mind that Germany forced Russia to sign one of the most humiliating treaties in its entire history. Germany might not be a threat, but Russia does feel as if it has been cheated - by Germany and by the Western Allies alike - because after the fall of Germany, the Russians would have expected some sort of compensations, anything for the war they have fought. And the Entente did nothing.
Yes, but the Russian Navy is also extremely inexperienced and technologically backwards. Only a couple of actually modern vessels exist. The war has been disastrous for the Fleet, and Russia must also divide its naval attention on many different seas. As an example, I suppose that the Pacific Squadron has been slowly enlarged - Russia might still be wary of Japanese expansionism.
The beliefs of Scandinavia are understandable, of course - but Russia wants to reaffirm its position as a great power. And in order to do that, the Baltics have to be retaken and Bessarabia needs to be liberated. Scandinavia needs to be pushed back and humiliated. A Polish neutrality that would overlook that would be amazing from the point of view of Russia.
by Tracian Empire » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:21 am
New Granadeseret wrote:Tracian Empire wrote:It all depends on recent Polish history, I suppose. The Poles did end up fighting against the Soviets in real life, so, if the same happened in here, the Poles would have been forced to cooperate with the White forces. And the Russian Civil War would have concluded with the Whites and the Poles allied, officially or just by necessity. That, combined with the internal frictions in Russia, and with already existing rivalries/threats in the forms of Scandinavia, the Ottomans, and on the other side of the world, Japan, could serve as the stepping stone of a cooperation of sorts. But that depends on multiple factors. For the time being at least, Russia's main interests lie in Bessarabia, the Baltics, and Finland, and not necessarily in Poland.
And that isn't about Russian security, it's about Russian revenge. You have to keep in mind that Germany forced Russia to sign one of the most humiliating treaties in its entire history. Germany might not be a threat, but Russia does feel as if it has been cheated - by Germany and by the Western Allies alike - because after the fall of Germany, the Russians would have expected some sort of compensations, anything for the war they have fought. And the Entente did nothing.
Yes, but the Russian Navy is also extremely inexperienced and technologically backwards. Only a couple of actually modern vessels exist. The war has been disastrous for the Fleet, and Russia must also divide its naval attention on many different seas. As an example, I suppose that the Pacific Squadron has been slowly enlarged - Russia might still be wary of Japanese expansionism.
The beliefs of Scandinavia are understandable, of course - but Russia wants to reaffirm its position as a great power. And in order to do that, the Baltics have to be retaken and Bessarabia needs to be liberated. Scandinavia needs to be pushed back and humiliated. A Polish neutrality that would overlook that would be amazing from the point of view of Russia.
I'm working on my history right now, but I just want to establish a few facts so we're all on the same page.
1. Obviously, the OE didn't join the Central Powers in this timeline: this was a natural result of no Italo-Turkish war and no Balkan Wars, as without those humiliating defeats the liberal government of the Young Turks wouldn't have fallen in a coup. This means the Straits were open to Russian trade during and after the war: likely a key factor in insuring the Western White-Cossack forces in the south got the arms and supplies they needed.
2. Following that logic, no Ottomans in the CP means no war between the Russians and Ottomans, and thus no gains at B-L. Granted, there's still going to be a metric ton of Armenians who... um... died of the Spanish Flu, yes, but I imagine the Russkies were looking the other way for quite some time.
3. Our involvement in the Russian Civil War, such as it was (minimal) would be pro-White or at least Anti-Red: the Capitalist-Democratic Young Turks certainly weren't fond of Bolshevism, and the Islamist-Autocratic Abdul Hamid supporters were hardly fans of the Atheists.
4. In conclusion, while relations would still be cool between us I don't imagine they'd be outright hostile.
by Plzen » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:24 am
Tracian Empire wrote:Yes, but the Russian Navy is also extremely inexperienced and technologically backwards. Only a couple of actually modern vessels exist. The war has been disastrous for the Fleet, and Russia must also divide its naval attention on many different seas. As an example, I suppose that the Pacific Squadron has been slowly enlarged - Russia might still be wary of Japanese expansionism.
Tracian Empire wrote:The beliefs of Scandinavia are understandable, of course - but Russia wants to reaffirm its position as a great power.
Tracian Empire wrote:And in order to do that, the Baltics have to be retaken and Bessarabia needs to be liberated. Scandinavia needs to be pushed back and humiliated. A Polish neutrality that would overlook that would be amazing from the point of view of Russia.
by Arvenia » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:31 am
Plzen wrote:Russian application is up?
*smiles*Tracian Empire wrote:Russian Polish relations would be interesting. Because leaving the old hostility aside, the Whites probably never tried to invade Poland.
If effective Russian-Polish co-operation emerge, that's an immediate red flag for anyone that might plausibly oppose Russia on one European matter or another. Poland is one of the biggest reason why Russia can't effectively intervene in European affairs, and without that roadblock...
Russia and Poland inherently have a lot of geopolitical friction, though, and one way or another you need to resolve this if you expect to establish real co-operation.Tracian Empire wrote:Russia would certainly still be wary of Germany, and from the war, of Austria and Hungary. The Ottomans might also be a problem...
Germany has been utterly humiliated, thoroughly disarmed, and is separated from Russia by Poland to boot. Their fascist militarism is quite a few years in the future. Russian officers on the western borders are going to be worried about Poland and Scandinavia, not a non-threat five hundred kilometers away.
Until Germany starts gearing up for war again - and that is a venture that will take years - what Berlin does or does not do has negligible influence on Russian security.Tracian Empire wrote:Russia would probably drop all her claims against Poland.. but it will still seek to retake the Baltic states.
If Russia retakes the Baltic States, Scandinavia will panic. The Russian navy is bigger than the Scandinavian navy - overwhelmingly so. The threat of a Russian army suddenly landing in Stockholm or Helsingfors suddenly becomes a possibility, and Scandinavian-Russian relations are never really warm.
They assume - incorrectly, but perfectly reasonably - that if the Russians wants to ship an army from Tallinn to Helsinki, they can. It is not yet known how utterly devastating a proper air force can be against an enemy navy unable to control the skies above itself.The Free Territory of Makhnovia wrote:Sending pipe bombs in mail is viable.
As a tool of terror, yes. As a tool of destabilisation, I don't really think so. Destabilisation is done by mass movements, and you don't gain many supporters through indiscriminate violence against the general population.
by Tracian Empire » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:37 am
Plzen wrote:Tracian Empire wrote:Yes, but the Russian Navy is also extremely inexperienced and technologically backwards. Only a couple of actually modern vessels exist. The war has been disastrous for the Fleet, and Russia must also divide its naval attention on many different seas. As an example, I suppose that the Pacific Squadron has been slowly enlarged - Russia might still be wary of Japanese expansionism.
The Scandinavian Navy is also extremely inexperienced and somewhat technologically backwards. It's also much smaller than the Russian Navy.
Once war actually breaks out and the power of an Air Force at sea is demonstrated, then things would look a lot different, but right now the prevalent opinion in both Scandinavia and Russia is going to be that Scandinavia will have a hard enough time challenging complete Russian naval supremacy in the Baltic even as it is - ditto after it owns key ports like Riga.Tracian Empire wrote:The beliefs of Scandinavia are understandable, of course - but Russia wants to reaffirm its position as a great power.
This is basically the entire premise behind the future storyline that we've discussed, isn't it?Tracian Empire wrote:And in order to do that, the Baltics have to be retaken and Bessarabia needs to be liberated. Scandinavia needs to be pushed back and humiliated. A Polish neutrality that would overlook that would be amazing from the point of view of Russia.
At that point things start to depend on how many miiltant, belligerent, and hostile states Russia can afford to have on its frontiers. But considering how we have the Karelian crisis planned so far, I think it's perfectly reasonable for Russia to want Scandinavia humiliated after that.
Being forced on the negotiating table because you can't decisively defeat, militarily, a country 1/10 your population is bound to be unhelpful to national prestige. Especially if the terms agreed on said negotiating table effectively amount to status quo ante bellum. After that, Russia would definitely be gearing up for a second war.
by Plzen » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:04 am
Tracian Empire wrote:Well, if the Scandinavian Navy is perceived to be inferior to the Russian Fleet - that would be perfect, as it would enforce the arrogance of the Russian High Command. The defeat of the Russian Fleet at sea due to the Scandinavian Air Force would be one of the pieces that will force the Russians to rethink their military strategy, and to start reforming their military.
Tracian Empire wrote:Although of course, I'd highly prefer the defeat of the Russian Fleet to be less devastating than the Battle of Tsushima xD
Tracian Empire wrote:Well, Russia will be careful. There is absolutely no reason for it to try to be hostile to Poland or the Ottomans, it seems - which means that it would focus on the north. And yeah, the war will be quite humiliating, which will be good. It will unite the Russians in revanchism and a desire for revenge.
Tracian Empire wrote:And the failure of the Russians to defeat Scandinavia in the war will probably be the spark that will make them invade the Baltic States.
by Jiyon » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:06 pm
by Kistan » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:19 pm
Humor: "It's the Vrell Fuel and Oils Corporation, not Kistani Oils. Kistani Oils makes lotions and petrolium jellies." | Disclaimer: Kistan is for fun, and you should not expect the IRL me to do the things Kistan may do. |
by Tracian Empire » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:17 pm
Plzen wrote:Tracian Empire wrote:Well, if the Scandinavian Navy is perceived to be inferior to the Russian Fleet - that would be perfect, as it would enforce the arrogance of the Russian High Command. The defeat of the Russian Fleet at sea due to the Scandinavian Air Force would be one of the pieces that will force the Russians to rethink their military strategy, and to start reforming their military.
I think that will be the big consequence of our little Karelian crisis, really. The Scandinavian High Command will learn how to use all of their fancy new (and hence unfamiliar) toys effectively, while the Russian High Command will realise that they really need those fancy toys that the Scandinavians have.Tracian Empire wrote:Although of course, I'd highly prefer the defeat of the Russian Fleet to be less devastating than the Battle of Tsushima xD
Physically, the Scandinavian Air Force can probably sink the entire Russian Baltic Fleet in the first week of the war. But can and will are different words. Scandinavia lacks the doctrines and determination to make that happen. The Scandinavian Air Force won't sink the Russian Navy in this war because by the time it realises that sinking the Russian Navy is a thing that they can do, they'll already have a signed nonaggression treaty in their hands.Tracian Empire wrote:Well, Russia will be careful. There is absolutely no reason for it to try to be hostile to Poland or the Ottomans, it seems - which means that it would focus on the north. And yeah, the war will be quite humiliating, which will be good. It will unite the Russians in revanchism and a desire for revenge.
I would like to add that the Scandinavian strategy will likely add to the controversy. Scandinavia may not have the doctrines of intensive naval bombing, but it does have well-developed doctrines of strategic bombing. The crisis will likely last only a few days - a couple weeks at most - but that's enough time to demonstrate to Petrograd the horrors of strategic bombing.
On one hand, after the crisis a considerable number of Petrograd residents might be screaming bloody revenge against the Scandinavians, but then again an equally large number might severely contest the assertion that abstract revenge is worth getting bombed again.Tracian Empire wrote:And the failure of the Russians to defeat Scandinavia in the war will probably be the spark that will make them invade the Baltic States.
In short, the prospects for a long and lasting peace between Scandinavia and Russia really does not look good at the moment.
by Jiyon » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:55 am
by Jiyon » Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:01 am
by Jiyon » Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:35 am
Ulls wrote:The Consortium will have a large influence in say in an independent Bengali as the Martin Brothers would want to set up major business and help the Bengali people.
by Arvenia » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:50 pm
by Jiyon » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:47 am
Caltharus wrote:Would it be possible to reserve Italy?
by Tracian Empire » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:20 am
by The Free Territory of Makhnovia » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:42 am
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