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by Democratic Peoples republic of Kelvinsi » Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:41 am
Fredrick Williams
@MSGov
Japan proves that is possible to have traditional gender roles, while maintaining an excellent economy! When you look at Japan you see traditional nuclear families and prosperity both in the economy and the household. Yet in America we have broken families, as a result of feminism which caused the destruction of the family.
by Sanabel » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:42 am
by Granluras » Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:32 am
by Dentali » Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:17 pm
by Federal States of Xathuecia » Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:41 pm
by Tumblrena » Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:01 pm
by Granluras » Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:16 pm
  Jared Bartley @jbartPAGOV I thank everyone for the wave of support I have received for my approach to the opioid crisis nationwide. Look forward to some major legislative and executive responses to the drug crisis plaguing Pennsylvania. Keep your faith in me, Pennsylvanians! RETWEETSFAVORITE 31,24387,623  6:42 pm - 8 May 17 |
by Democratic Peoples republic of Kelvinsi » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:14 pm
by Tallahassee News Station » Mon Dec 31, 2018 6:26 pm
This Tuesday voters went to the polls to cast their ballots in primary races for members of all three major parties and a large number of offices, but all eyes were drawn most of all to the race for the Democratic nomination for Governor. The contest between former Mayor of Jersey City and Secretary of the Interior Tony Schlang and former union leader and current Mayor of Trenton Joh Stansky made waves nationally from the starting gun after a widely watched and reported on first primary debate that included Stansky telling the former Secretary not to "hold his panties" and Schlang referring to his opponent as "baldy" with open insults flying back and forth in the Jersey brawl. Since then the campaign never got any nicer, with Stansky buying billboards accusing Schlang of being a rapist and Schlang turning to colorful language to describe his "garbage" opponent but even the most exciting races have to come to an end.
The end didn't come quickly with results trickling in painfully slowly from polling places and no clear winner visible as the two candidates jumped back and forth over each other for the lead as the number of counted ballots increased. One of the closest races in New Jersey history is even more remarkable because many thought that it had basically been decided several weeks ago.
Schlang had a fair amount of national name recognition with a television stint, an attempted Presidential run, a colorful Secretary tenure including an odd foreign policy negotiation in the Pacific and a public national moment calling into Ellen Walton at the Progressive National Convention while Stansky was mostly unknown outside of Trenton. That name recognition gap closed and eventually even reversed in the course of the race as Stansky made national news with serieses of dramatic and radical policy proposals that soon dipped their toes into the controversial. This came to a head in the surprising surge into national publicity for the "Tussle in Trenton" debate between Stansky and similarly controversial opposite Senator Peter Amaras of the Republican Party. In an event that was watched far beyond New Jersey the result was hard to call less than a disaster for Stansky as analysts broadly concurred that the debate quickly turned into Amaras pummeling the Mayor across a variety of topics. A debate loss was an unfortunate hit but what blew up the event were two specific happenings where Stansky ducked out of the Overton window. A feud on Israel where Stansky had already been controversial in the past saw him proclaim on national television that the Israeli Defense Force was the "world's largest military terrorist organization" and that Israel was an "apartheid state" among other claims. The night would only get more troublesome for Stansky when a fight with Amaras over "seizing the means of production" helped to push viral a video from a TNS interview where Stansky promised a plan to seize land from businesses who attempted to relocate out of state and give it to unions.
After the debate many political experts proclaimed Stansky's campaign to be basically dead in the water with the more optimistic believing he could possibly reemerge for a future Senate bid but the Mayor refused to lie down and take his proclaimed political death. Stansky kicked his campaign into high gear outcampaigning Schlang across the state in dramatic rallies and even pulling in outside support via Governor Aleravez of New Mexico while using funds from union sources and small donors to push out advertisements. With Stansky pushing hard to recover a May surprise saw Schlang harm his own campaign. Schlang offered Stansky a hundred thousand dollars to drop out of the race and resign as Mayor in what he would later call a "joke" but the either badly done humor or attempted bribery brought him under investigation for violating New Jersey law, which Stansky immediately went on the attack over as well as going full bore in the final weeks accusing Schlang of rape due to former allegations against him which were eventually dropped.
The race was an anything goes tossup going into the polls, but now that they're coming back we can take a look at what happened and what it might mean.
What was a surprise to many right off the bat were the turnout numbers. With two heavily controversial candidates on the ballot most experts predicted that few would make it to the polls, but on a beautiful Spring day voters came to the Democratic polls in droves to make their choice with overall turnout the highest in the Democratic primary in over thirty years since the famed 13-candidate mass race of 1981 where the victor only barely broke 25% of the vote. The assumptions of low turnout because of low enthusiasm for the candidates wasn't completely wrong however. Exit polling flipped that assumption on its head as a significant plurality of voters in the primary said that they went to the polls to vote against the opposing candidate rather than for the candidate that they voted for. Voters who said they were voting "for" their candidate were much more likely to vote for Stansky but Schlang polled better by a smaller margin for voters who said that they were voting "against" the other candidate. High enthusiasm voters went Stansky's way by an even larger margin but the low enthusiasm "reluctant" voters were strong for Schlang.
The numbers in the primary didn't happen in a vacuum, though. Whether Democrats like it or not, the new reality of the Progressive party has made primary success more difficult for more left wing Democratic candidates by an amount that has varied. When Progressive candidates are running on the same primary day the left wing pool that a more liberal Democratic candidate has to draw from is reduced, giving an edge to a more moderate contender. In the first major primary battle since the 2016 election, with the Connecticut election not giving any insight after the more left wing Ambassador Singh left the Democrats to join the Progressives political scientists as well as voters were eager to see what the effect would be.
The indicators would seem like good news for Stansky. The Progressive primary was less active and failed to draw nearly as much attention as the Democratic in state and apparently failed to generate enthusiasm. What publicity it did receive mostly was built around controversy over Huffington Post journalist Samantha Soberman, who would end up being the winner and first transgender nominee for a major party in a Governor's race after taking home a plurality against a collection of various first time candidates. But the election wasn't even close to as big an event as the one for the Democrats as it drew in less than twenty thousand voters, a small fraction of the number who voted in the Republican and Democratic primaries. The system in New Jersey however was not uninvolved in the primaries. With a semi closed system crossing over from one party to another to vote in a primary election a much more difficult task than in other states, as any Progressive or Democrat who wanted to cross party lines had to do so months before the election and before much of the late campaign action.
Going back to refocus on the Democratic race demographics told a back and forth story across the board. In a race where both male candidates repeatedly attacked the other over alleged sexism and where both promised to put together cabinets of equal gender ratios a noticeable gender gap did emerge, but not a very broad one. Men favored Schlang on their ballots and women Stansky, but neither by huge margins and with differences when digging deeper into the categories. The primarily male demographic of registered union members went strongly in Stansky's favor while African-American women voted for Schlang. Stansky's strongest female margin turned out among Hispanic women while he took white women by only a slim margin. White women would end up being one of the most split demographics in the entire election. While Schlang won over most voters who said they were voting against the opposing candidate white women who voted Stansky were the biggest of his demographics to say that their vote was one against Schlang instead of for the Mayor. Simultaneously white women who voted Schlang similarly stated in high but slightly smaller numbers that their vote was against Stansky instead of for Schlang. White women were the demographic that was least enthusiastic about their candidate across the board for both Schlang and Stansky voters.
Some of that enthusiasm may have bled over into the higher than expected turnout in the Republican primary, where embattled and generally unpopular incumbent Melissa Hotchkiss did not face a major challenger. While exit polls showed various trends one of the most potentially significant indicators was in the votes of unaffiliated women. New Jersey primaries block party registered voters from switching shortly before the election unaffiliated voters can select a party to participate in the primary of on the day of the election. White female voters not registered with a party and particularly those who self identified as "moderate", a block that Democrats can typically do well in in New Jersey, chose to vote in the Republican primary and for Hotchkiss in much higher numbers than predicted and polled similarly to women who voted in the Democratic primary in expressing dissatisfaction with both Democratic candidates.
On racial lines the vote was closely contested. Stansky made significant inroads with Hispanic voters taking that demographic and chipped away a substantial portion of the black vote, but saw African Americans end up casting ballots for the more establishment Schlang by large margins. Schlang also took home a win among Asian American voters, a modest but substantial demographic in New Jersey. Jewish voters broke heavily in Schlang's favor. By wealth the divide was somewhat more clear than other contested demographics, with Schlang taking high and middle-high income voters by comfortable margins, with Stansky winning handily among poorer voters though with a larger contest among the bottom income bracket where Schlang put up a stronger and closer contest. Professional workers went heavily in Schlang's direction, and industrial workers overwhelming to Stansky, though a small demographic with the split among other blue collar workers a closer affair, while Stansky took unemployed voters by major margins. Along religious lines Stansky won a decisive majority among religious "nones" as well as atheist voters while Schlang had a more modest edge with other groups winning both Catholics and Protestants but with a smaller margin for the second driven by a loss to Stansky among white Protestants with Jews as mentioned voting for their goy.
The Jersey map showed some noticeable dividing lines even while battles within each candidate's winning counties were tightly fought. Both candidates performed very strongly in their home cities, Schlang as the former mayor of Jersey City and Stansky as the current mayor of Trenton with vote margins in each exceeding usual "home field advantage" polling, with Stansky's margins in Trenton slightly superior. Stansky's voters mostly encircled Schlang's as he took a somewhat surprising win in Atlantic City and modestly outperformed Schlang in the more rural southern region of the state, while taking Camden County but not the city itself. Schlang was strongest closest to New York around Jersey City and Newark, but also polled better in the northwestern rural regions of the state than the southern, pushing an angle of a north/south split into the east/west divide in voting.
In a complex race packed to the brim with criss crossing voter motivations and demographics, even what would have been expected to be a clean vote split on self referenced ideological lines still had its own quirk to add. Voters who self identified as "conservative" or "moderate" went overwhelmingly in Schlang's direction while self identified "liberals" went strongly to Stansky's side. Voters who self identified as "very liberal" bucked the fairly even trend of vote margin by level of ideology by favoring Stansky still but by smaller margins than "liberal" voters. The split was slightly more pronounced among women who self identified as "very liberal" who still favored Stansky but by a much slimmer amount than "very liberal" men, who voted for him in bigger numbers than "liberal" men.
But no matter how far the results get broken down in the end only the final gross matters.
With an abnormally small number of options available on the ballot in a rare one on one rare, nearly three thousand Democratic voters decided to make their own choice and write in their own choice for Governor keeping either candidate from reaching a majority. Exit polls for those voters indicated that if forced to vote for one of the candidates they would have chosen Schlang by a small margin but a small sample size makes the data unreliable.
Questions over who the decisive bloc was and what it means for the future of either the candidates themselves or the race are certain to be asked in post ops by both campaigns and their strategists as well as independent observers and strategists of other parties. With a surprising late endorsement from Josephine Stafford possibly shifting the chains Stansky took a bite out of African American numbers but saw them still go heavily for the more establishment Schlang over the more revolutionary Stansky in a way that mirrored Robert Danders's struggles to pick up African American votes in the primaries and even general election. While the gap in the African American vote was easily enough to swing the election many other demographics or shifts could be seen as decisive depending on the onlooker or the point they are trying to prove. White female voters went for Stansky but not in the margins he hoped to put up letting some question if Stansky's own missteps beginning with his "panties" comment in the first debate hindered an edge. Alternatively the question could be asked whether Stansky's aggressive and relentless attacks late in the game on the withdrawn rape allegations against Schlang soured some male voters towards him. Schlang's advantage with Catholics on the other hand could be raised as suggesting that Stansky could have benefited from making sexual morality a bigger point earlier in the campaign and Stansky's win with Hispanic women could be a counter against arguing that Schlang's attacks on Stansky's alleged sexism had a major effect. Another demographic bloc with the Asian vote which went mostly ignored in a race that saw plenty of shout outs to various minorities could be looked at as a missed opportunity. In a race with such close margins there are dozens of possible ways to second guess or applaud a strategy but the view now turns to the future.
Tony Schlang has some cause for optimism and some cause for pessimism with the state Democratic party having the same. The pending investigation against him is an obvious worry but politically he has some reason to take heart. A moderate making it out of the primary to face off against an unpopular incumbent is usually a good recipe for a win historically and there is some hope for Democrats in the low numbers of the Progressive primary. Progressive strength in the heavily white irreligious and sparsely populated New England might not transfer down with any success for the more urban minority and semi religious Middle Atlantic without Walton on the ballot and the smaller the Progressive vote the less split that Schlang has to deal with and the higher number of voters Hotchkiss has to cobble together.
Of course there is cause for pessimism too. The more brutal a primary gets the harder it can be to bring back the other side's supporters into the fold and there's no way of knowing if Stansky won't push his supporters to stay home out of spite or even consider an independent run. Hotchkiss was free to bank her donations over an easy primary while Schlang had to spend big on the airwaves to push back against his opponent leaving him in a worse place starting off. Perhaps the biggest question is how permanent the shift in unaffiliated female voters is going to be going into the general. If Stansky's attacks stick and white women who went for Hotchkiss in the primaries stay with the Republican then Schlang has a serious uphill battle against a female candidate though he might take heart in those voters drifting back towards him once Stansky's attacks start to fade into more distant memory.
The harder question to answer is about the future of Joh Stansky. On the hand of a detractor the Mayor failed to defeat an opponent who had being publicly lambasted over alleged sexual assault and was under investigation for violating bribery law during the election. On the hand of a promoter the Mayor came within fractions of winning a majority of New Jersey Democrats over to a platform farther left than almost any political strategist would think possibly feasible and all while spurning corporate donations. Stansky has name recognition on a national level that's much more than the Mayor of a city of his size would usually be able to get and even with a large amount of that recognition not being especially positive he has an animated core of supporters and that base is spreading. Stansky's "Medicare for All" invention was criticized by Schlang and some other Democrats for being based on faulty math, or "Voodoo economics 2.0" in the words of Jamie Johnson and was attacked just as aggressively by right wing opponents, but its no longer only his. Moses Clearwater a former Congressman and candidate for Governor in Virginia has adopted the concept and has campaigned openly on it showing a surprising shift of Stansky and his plans towards broader acceptability that also seemed to be reflected by surprise endorsements from Senator Richter and ex Senator Stafford, the former Minority Leader. With controversies around him a major race behind him and still riding on a new surge of recognition and influence where Stansky goes to next is anyone's guess.
But right now the answer for where Joh is going to go is home with the ending numbers tipping the vote scale towards Tony Schlang, the new Democratic nominee to race to run New Jersey.
Outside of the Democratic gubernatorial primary the most significant news came from the Republican primaries, where an unprecedented number of primary challengers fought their way past incumbents. In three races in the state Senate and two in the General Assembly Republican challengers defeated sitting opponents with two of the examples seeing the incumbent retire when faced with a competitive primary. Notable in the challenges were the ideologies of the victors. While New Jersey has had a long history of putting out moderate Republicans some anti-establishment and more conservative strains have been bubbling up this year. Candidates running on platforms more on the right than the center right wing were successful in all five races and did fairly well in races with a previously retiring incumbents in which two of three winners were viewed as the more conservative candidate. While none of the races were identical the majority had the biggest issue seen as RLSA reform with challengers not satisfied with the state's progress in working with the new law. Most of the media focus on the issue has been around liberal opposition to the plan Governor Hotchkiss has championed as a moderate compromise which passed the Democratic majority Senate with sufficient bipartisan support but despite some Democratic votes and the Governor's cheerleading failed to make it through the General Assembly. These races showed that the issues with the bill aren't coming from only one side of the spectrum. New general election contenders see opportunities to reduce entitlement spending and lower tax burdens with the RLSA change in responsibility and in one new candidate for State Senate's words "I don't think a deal with that many Democrats on it is a deal worth making for Jersey." State legislatures elsewhere in the nation have seen shifts in power after the landslide 2016 elections flipped chambers to or reinforced Republican majorities that had been growing through the Winston administration but New Jersey with an off year election was unaffected. The right wing push could be banking on another red wave coming through but puts Hotchkiss in an even more tenuous position with the chance of some members of her party shying away from her proposal while she attempts to entice Democrats to join it with a government shutdown deadline looming only weeks away. Party officials have fretted over candidates who are too conservative may have poor electability, harming chances of Republicans taking a majority in the fall though one party official said that he thought that taking advantage of the Democratic/Progressive split to elect more conservative candidates was perfectly timed.
All eyes are going to be watching the Governor's race but with new firebrands pushing for change on the right and some Progressive candidates gearing up to make runs of their own on the left the state legislature is worth a watch as well.
by Puertollano » Mon Dec 31, 2018 7:25 pm
by Puertollano » Mon Dec 31, 2018 7:37 pm
by Vaquas » Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:08 pm
by Vaquas » Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:25 pm
by Sanabel » Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:26 pm
Tony Schlang
@TheSchlangster
"Big win for New Jersey tonight, started this race as the underdog and nobody believed in me- guess who's laughing now!!
Tony Schlang
@TheSchlangster
"Newsflash for Comrade Joh, stopping Hotchkiss Takeovers and revamping infrastructure was on the agenda before your revolution. Other stuff will be considered, maybe public option instead?"
Tony Schlang
@TheSchlangster
"Love how Big Ego Joh would rather throw election to Republicans and the status quo than Bring New Jersey Back."
Tony Schlang
@TheSchlangster
"Willing to let bygones be bygones and maybe even support old baldy for future political office, I've grown to like him recently. But he's gotta be an ally to team Schlang instead of team Hotchkiss!"
by Vaquas » Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:45 pm
Congressman Frank Johnson
@ThePhillyJohnson
When Frank Johnson (Me) is Governor of Pennsylvania, Tony Schlang is Governor of New Jersey, and Good Old Dan Schmidt is Governor of Connecticut, all 3 states will be greater than ever before, period!
by Vaquas » Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:47 pm
Congressman Frank Johnson
@ThePhillyJohnson
Also Moses Clearwater is a good strong black man with no criminal record and a lot of good books that I like to read! He has my full endorsement!
by Dentali » Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:58 pm
by Sanabel » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:16 pm
by Vaquas » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:26 pm
Sanabel wrote:Schlang's House, Jersey City, New Jersey
(Image)
Tony Schlang was pretty pumped up about his victory. He had choked back half a bottle of vodka and three packs of cigarettes as the results came in, sitting in the living room of his family home in Jersey City. The whole house was filled with people for an epic campaign house party, with drinks and music.
Schlang barely said a word over the course of the entire evening, including after his victory. The party continued after the race was called, but the inner circle of the campaign immediately moved into the dining room, which became an impromptu war room.
A passive and apathetic Schlang was roused by the ringtone of his cell phone, which was his favorite song Young Guns, George Michael's critique on marriage, which he found fitted with his own life experience. Before he could pick up the cell phone, Don Schlang smacked his hand. He couldn't have his inebriated son make a fool of himself. So he did something he had done many times before, and smacked his son twice, then fully doused his face with the cocktail in his right hand. Tony Schlang sputtered, eyes wide, shocked by the freezing ice cold liquid that hit him. He shook himself from his state and answered the phone.
"Uh, this is the Schlangst- er Tony Schlang 'ere."
by Sanabel » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:30 pm
by Puertollano » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:37 pm
Vaquas wrote:Newark, New Jersey
Samantha Soberman couldn't have been happier with the results that flashed across the screen that night. Schlang was a disaster of a candidate, Hotchkiss was weak, and Joh was now a free agent. The thought that had been stewing in the history maker's mind over the last couple of days was one that she decided would have to come into fruition. A tiny victory party was underway, marked by pizza that had come out of the candidate's own pocket and illicit subtances that had come from someone else's entirely.
"Congrats Samantha!" said an excited volunteer as the Progressive nominee strode past, seeking a free corner of the campaign HQ alongside her campaign manager, who was scribbling something down in a pink notebook.
"It was you guys who did it!" she replied, returning a smile and a pat on the back as she zeroed in on a relatively private spot.
She knew things were busy, but she also knew that she'd be put through when the people on the other end knew who she was.
Snatching a now detached slip of paper from her campaign manager's hand, and running her eyes over a larger one that was held in front of her, Samantha Soberman rang Joh Stansky's campaign.
by Vaquas » Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:19 pm
Sanabel wrote:Schlang's House, Jersey City, New Jersey
"I gotta tell ya Claudia, I'm a little pissed I didn't beat 'em by more. I hope we can beat Hotchkiss..." Schlang's usual swagger was faded.
"I don't drink on the job, C-Dog."
by Vaquas » Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:35 pm
Puertollano wrote:Vaquas wrote:Newark, New Jersey
Samantha Soberman couldn't have been happier with the results that flashed across the screen that night. Schlang was a disaster of a candidate, Hotchkiss was weak, and Joh was now a free agent. The thought that had been stewing in the history maker's mind over the last couple of days was one that she decided would have to come into fruition. A tiny victory party was underway, marked by pizza that had come out of the candidate's own pocket and illicit subtances that had come from someone else's entirely.
"Congrats Samantha!" said an excited volunteer as the Progressive nominee strode past, seeking a free corner of the campaign HQ alongside her campaign manager, who was scribbling something down in a pink notebook.
"It was you guys who did it!" she replied, returning a smile and a pat on the back as she zeroed in on a relatively private spot.
She knew things were busy, but she also knew that she'd be put through when the people on the other end knew who she was.
Snatching a now detached slip of paper from her campaign manager's hand, and running her eyes over a larger one that was held in front of her, Samantha Soberman rang Joh Stansky's campaign.
At the time Soberman called, Joh was parading down Trenton, waving his arm out the window of the driving car at fans on the sidewalk. Any calls as of late were important for Joh, so he pulled over and took the call.
“Yep, hello?”
by Sanabel » Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:51 pm
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