The White House-2017 Washington RP

[Dentali]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

The President listened closely through the analysis, contemplating the Congressman's breakdown of it. He took note of the moral commentary Samara provided, and had his hands folded to reply after the older man finished.

"There's intent, and then there's ability," he commented. "China having designs to spread their influence in Africa is one thing, but being able to colonize it is another. We saw a nineteenth century of colonialism, but we saw decolonization take over in the twentieth. What makes that sort of model feasible now in the twenty-first?" he asked.

"Its not the same kind of colonization, its an economic and political domination."

"Africa has forged close economic ties with China over the past 20 years. There are two main channels of economic engagement between Africa and China. The main channel, by far, has been through trade, having risen more than 40-fold over the period. Most sub-Saharan African exports to China are fuels, metals, or mineral products. On the other hand, imports from China to sub-Saharan African countries comprise mostly manufactured goods, followed by machinery. By 2015 trade between China and Africa was close to $300 billion. Its expected to top half a trillion dollars by 2018 by contrast US trade with Africa is barely $5 billion. Right now China has more than 3,000 infrastructure projects underway across the continent and has handed out more than $60 billion in commercial loans. All of that has strings attached which increase the stranglehold on African Governments."

"The second main channel of engagement between Africa and China is through Chinese lending. China has become, by far, the largest source of bilateral loans, accounting for about 14 percent of stock of total debt contracted by African countries, excluding South Africa."

"Hungry for economic opportunity, and hungry for cash, one African country after another has willingly turned itself into a Chinese dependency. Dictatorships including those in Ethiopia and Ghana have accepted Chinese help in erecting their own versions of the Great Firewall, in order to gain control of the Internet inside their borders, while adopting the technologies of China’s high-tech police state. Others fell for China’s offer of loans to support those infrastructure projects and soon found themselves in debt traps that they couldn’t escape — and that China is able to use to wield political influence."

[Prolieum]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

Cal steepled his fingers, continuing to listen closely. He elected to pose another question.

"These 'channels of economic engagement' that are being expanded between them, Africa and China, what effects have we seen from them so far? Not politically, but financially, the economic effect."

[Dentali]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

Cal steepled his fingers, continuing to listen closely. He elected to pose another question.

"These 'channels of economic engagement' that are being expanded between them, Africa and China, what effects have we seen from them so far? Not politically, but financially, the economic effect."

"For the common people little to no effect, corruption is rampant and the governments are overwhelmingly dysfunctional. It largely lines the pockets of a select few without benefiting the country in a real or efficient way."

[Prolieum]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"Fuels, metals, mineral products-those are heavily industrial jobs, aren't they? Producing them, that is," he questioned.

[Dentali]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"Fuels, metals, mineral products-those are heavily industrial jobs, aren't they? Producing them, that is," he questioned.

"They are indeed but the African legal and regulatory system, the African business environment, and all levels of Africa’s state-provided education are, compared to the rest of the world, abysmal. You need all that for sophisticated industry and production, but China isnt investing in that or the governments in Africa, they are essentially strip mining the continent for resources and doing all the production back in China or elsewhere."

"Traditional trade theory predicts a decrease in inequality in developing countries during periods of integration in the global economy. The slow economic progress of poor workers in many parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America in the last few decades therefore surprised economists. Two potential explanations were proposed and compared: skillbiased technological change and features of international trade — such as outsourcing and quality upgrading — that could alter the logic underlying expectations of job growth and greater equality in unskilled labor-abundant countries postintegration. Two decades of research led to wide agreement that both explanations play a role, and that they probably interact. But this conclusion was built on studies of trade-induced technological change. To date, there is no direct evidence on how the average and distributional economic effects of the spread of the modern information and communication technologies (ICT) in poor countries help explain the increasing inequality in the labor markets of rich countries."


"But that is where the United States has a chance to come in."

[Prolieum]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"Where does the United States come in," he asked, the tone of the question showing it as an invitation for Samara to offer his thoughts on the matter.

[Dentali]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"Where does the United States come in," he asked, the tone of the question showing it as an invitation for Samara to offer his thoughts on the matter.

"America needs a new proactive policy toward Africa, one that emphasizes democracy, economic prosperity, and, above all, political autonomy in face of China’s neo-colonialist ambitions. While not forgetting the importance of the war on radical Islam in Africa."

"One component of the new American strategy would be to look for ways to increase investment by U.S. companies in a broad range of industries, from energy and minerals to telecommunications and health care. Another component, just as important, of the the new U.S. strategy is to cut and eliminate U.S. aid that only strengthens corruption and economic dependence. Between 1995 and 2006, for example, U.S. government aid to Africa was roughly equal to the amount of assistance provided by all other donors combined — with little or no benefit for the intended recipients, or for the U.S. The new policy will aim to ensure, instead that ALL aid to the region — whether for security, humanitarian, or development needs — advances US interests.”

"Investment should also be specifically be encouraged for programs that provide greater and cheaper access to information and communication. Digitization and retail payments systems, Digitization and financial inclusion of women,
Digitization and sustainable business models like M-Akiba which just launched, Water Vending Machines, programs like the One Acre fund which invest in small hold farmers, energy programs like M-KOPA Solar, medical innovations like the M-TIBA program...

"Finally, the new U.S. policy will stress engagement through bilateral ties with individual African states instead of reliance on multilateral bodies such as the World Bank and the U.N. The U.N.’s human-rights record in its African peacekeeping missions, for example, has been horrendous and has only played into China’s pose as Africa’s last best hope."

[Dentali]

Office of the Chief of Staff

Simon sat one hand rubbing his temple and the other holding a phone to his ear “Yes... well he’s come a long way... the President was an athlete and here I am his chief of staff, so obviously it doesn’t bug me... Schmidt is running a weekend at Bernie’s campaign only other candidate that could win is Singh... you’re right we don’t want that... the President appreciates it thank you”

Simon hung up the phone and let out a long sigh, for the past week he had been calling everyone that ever supported his campaign, worked with him, or donated a buck telling them all to support the Roberts campaign. Governor and Senator were very different in terms of elections, voters were more likely to cross party lines for a gubernatorial election and carter had been a tougher sell. Regardless the extreme progressive views of Singh and the well positioned moderate views of Roberts as well as his general inoffensive nature had helped make the pitch.

[Prolieum]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"That's an interesting mix," Cal commented.

"The suggestions for these new programs-investment for small hold farmers, energy, medical, communication, digitization-those sound like programs that would give you more economic dependence, don't they? If we're the ones digitizing them, it's hard to really say that we know that would hold up on its own once we're out."

"Then for stepping back from the UN and multinationals to work directly with the individual national governments-those are the governments that you were saying were pocketing funds for themselves, weren't they? That sounds like a possible corruption problem."

[Dentali]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"That's an interesting mix," Cal commented.

"The suggestions for these new programs-investment for small hold farmers, energy, medical, communication, digitization-those sound like programs that would give you more economic dependence, don't they? If we're the ones digitizing them, it's hard to really say that we know that would hold up on its own once we're out."

"Then for stepping back from the UN and multinationals to work directly with the individual national governments-those are the governments that you were saying were pocketing funds for themselves, weren't they? That sounds like a possible corruption problem."

"The idea is we jump-start private investment in these programs which will in turn stimulate independent economic growth of individuals in these nations. Every program I've mentioned has had a successful predecessor recommended by the heritage foundation and/or the bookings institute. We aren't just giving money to governments, writing a check.... this is a 'teaching a man to fish' approach. As for corruption the governments have proven the inability to responsibly handle these funds for decades now, these programs focus on individuals who can start businesses this empowers them and enables them to advocate change against corruption and in favor of real democracy."

[Prolieum]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"I have to admit that I'm a little surprised to hear you cite Heritage like that," Reed noted. He reached for his water to take a drink, then realized it was back at the desk.

"I forgot to offer you a drink, didn't I? Care for any water?" he inquired, stepping over to the desk, but staying turned towards the conversation, rather than looking to move it.

"The whole approach is more market-oriented than I would have expected from a proposal," he added, completing the earlier thought.

[Dentali]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"I have to admit that I'm a little surprised to hear you cite Heritage like that," Reed noted. He reached for his water to take a drink, then realized it was back at the desk.

"I forgot to offer you a drink, didn't I? Care for any water?" he inquired, stepping over to the desk, but staying turned towards the conversation, rather than looking to move it.

"The whole approach is more market-oriented than I would have expected from a proposal," he added, completing the earlier thought.

"No thank you on the water.... JFK said 'Let us not seek the Republican answer, or the Democratic answer but the right answer'..."

Samara finally relaxed a bit "I don't just like to read things I know i'm going to agree with, Republicans or conservatives aren't my enemy they just differ in opinion in policy and we should always seek to understand those we disagree with. Occasionally I find an idea I can work with reading Heritage or Cato or find a way to improve my own solutions, and if you want to work on an effort giving kids in low income communities a chance to go to better private schools i'm all for it."

"I'm a progressive not a socialist, I have critiques for free market capitalism, I believe we can improve it and when it comes time to do so in Africa i'll be in that fight. But right now Africa needs more free market solutions."

[Prolieum]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"I see why you resigned from the Progressive caucus," Reed commented, returning to the couch with water in hand, "even if you 'can't abide' some of my positions."

"I wonder if you would try to understand those," he mused out-loud.

"But let's get back to the policy. You've given your concepts, what about implementation?"

[Dentali]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"I see why you resigned from the Progressive caucus," Reed commented, returning to the couch with water in hand, "even if you 'can't abide' some of my positions."

"I wonder if you would try to understand those," he mused out-loud.

"But let's get back to the policy. You've given your concepts, what about implementation?"

"Implementation is firmly in your department. I'll help however I can just say the word, but i didn't want to step on the toes of your state department or make some sort of suggestion for implementation that goes against your own plans. I don't have enough information on your end."

[Prolieum]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"I meant it structurally," Reed clarified. "Is this something you would see implemented through new Ambassadors, Congressional legislation, executive action...?"

[Dentali]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"I meant it structurally," Reed clarified. "Is this something you would see implemented through new Ambassadors, Congressional legislation, executive action...?"

“It’s going to have a multi prong approach, I’m not a favor of executive action but you would make some sort of concrete statement regarding Africa, direct state department resources towards it and then call on Congress to support your initiative.”

[Prolieum]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"And do you think your party would react favorably to such a call?" The tone of the President's inquiry carried a note of skepticism.

[Dentali]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"And do you think your party would react favorably to such a call?" The tone of the President's inquiry carried a note of skepticism.

"If well framed yes, approach the left from a humanitarian perspective, use initiatives that focus on empowering women and make the funding conditional with human rights abuses. To your party, talk about how this is an investment in the future and bi-lateral trade and opening up markets, as well as providing a bulwark against Chinese expansion. The best part it this is an issue that has not been politicized, the average American doesnt have an opinion on it outside fear of China's growth. We have a chance to define this issue, this policy."

[Prolieum]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

Cal looked slightly amused at part of the wording. "Hopefully not conditional on human rights abuses...but I get your drift. Still, and I don't mean this negatively, this seems more like a series of tweaks than a bold overhaul of foreign policy. That doesn't make it a bad policy, but it seems like something that's better directed through issuing some new directives for State and picking out some new Ambassadors than petitioning Congress and rallying the nation."

[Dentali]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

Cal looked slightly amused at part of the wording. "Hopefully not conditional on human rights abuses...but I get your drift. Still, and I don't mean this negatively, this seems more like a series of tweaks than a bold overhaul of foreign policy. That doesn't make it a bad policy, but it seems like something that's better directed through issuing some new directives for State and picking out some new Ambassadors than petitioning Congress and rallying the nation."

"Thats why im speaking with you. But new trade deals, and the money necessary for these investments... that takes congress."

[Prolieum]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"You're suggesting an increase, then?" Cal asked. "I'd taken what you said to be more of a reallocation than an uptick."

[Dentali]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"You're suggesting an increase, then?" Cal asked. "I'd taken what you said to be more of a reallocation than an uptick."

"In trade it would certainly be an increase, it would require the equivalent of NAFTA but for Africa. If we can get an increase from Congress in terms of investment in Africa excellent, I just dont know how much is politically feasible."

[Prolieum]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"That's a much bigger task than just tweaking aid. Outside of political feasibility, that's a pretty tall diplomatic hurdle," Cal commented.

[Dentali]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"That's a much bigger task than just tweaking aid. Outside of political feasibility, that's a pretty tall diplomatic hurdle," Cal commented.

"That's why i'm speaking to you Mr. President, nothing worth doing is easy."

[Prolieum]

May 19, 2017

Oval Office

"But not everything that isn't easy is worth doing," the President reversed, a slim smile softening the comment.

"That's not necessarily out of a lack of merit to the idea, but just pesky scarcity. I think an undertaking on the scale of an Africa-wide NAFTA is relegated to the drawer of pipe dreams that would be there to try with unlimited resources and unlimited time rather than the planning board-at least if I only have one term to work with." The last few words had a touch of humor to them.

"The other suggestions on possible changes to the way we allocate funds, how we handle relations-those are worth some looking into, they look feasible enough to execute. In a vague concept form, it can be tricky to pin down into a plan of action, but they're at least worthy of not being dismissed."