United States Political RP (OOC SIGNUP)

[Arlenton]

No, because even if we went to uber-large constituencies under STV, my entire region is a sea of Conservative blue with only 2 seats ever changing hands regularly.

I was aiming more for what we have here. Your vote counts directly towards the division of the seats in Parliament. So, if Labour gets 54% of the total vote, they get 54% of the seats. Would that work better? Because your vote would most definitely count.

I'd consider us freer than any of those countries, economically wise.

Except for Hong Kong, nobody beats Hong Kong.

Economically wise? Perhaps for the top 500 companies, but for the average American, that doesn't hold true, especially because the big companies have s much freedom. Anyway, economic freedom is not the freedom they are talking about. Believe me, socially, all those places are more free than the US, some by a long shot.

Economically free, as in you do what you want with your money. That's the ideal for me, maybe not you. But most those places have strict gun control laws and hate speech criminalization, ulike the US, in France (I think) you can get arrested for speaking your mind.

[Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States]

I was aiming more for what we have here. Your vote counts directly towards the division of the seats in Parliament. So, if Labour gets 54% of the total vote, they get 54% of the seats. Would that work better? Because your vote would most definitely count.


Economically wise? Perhaps for the top 500 companies, but for the average American, that doesn't hold true, especially because the big companies have s much freedom. Anyway, economic freedom is not the freedom they are talking about. Believe me, socially, all those places are more free than the US, some by a long shot.

Economically free, as in you do what you want with your money. That's the ideal for me, maybe not you. But most those places have strict gun control laws and hate speech criminalization, ulike the US, in France (I think) you can get arrested for speaking your mind.

Well, there are a lot of places you can do whatever you want with your money. Somalia rings a bell. But in the US, it is illegal in many places to marry someone of the same gender. It's impossible to change your gender identity in some states. If you're openly atheist or Muslim, you can be shunned from public life for holding certain beliefs. All the while, some people's votes are more important than others and because the US is so free in the money business, lobbyists have taken it upon themselves to buy support from politicians.

In Europe, yes, certain kinds of hate speech are banned. You can still call blacks a lesser race, of course, or say that the law should be different for different people. What's banned is inciting violence, because we've had a great deal of trouble with people inciting violence and calling for the extermination of people. Yeah, we have strict gun control. In fact, guns are banned in many of the mentioned states. That's our culture. That might make us a bit less free, but it has stopped a lot of pain and suffering over the years. See, as long as the US bans gay marriage in any of the states, it is not a truly free place.

[Arlenton]

Economically free, as in you do what you want with your money. That's the ideal for me, maybe not you. But most those places have strict gun control laws and hate speech criminalization, ulike the US, in France (I think) you can get arrested for speaking your mind.

Well, there are a lot of places you can do whatever you want with your money. Somalia rings a bell. But in the US, it is illegal in many places to marry someone of the same gender. It's impossible to change your gender identity in some states. If you're openly atheist or Muslim, you can be shunned from public life for holding certain beliefs. All the while, some people's votes are more important than others and because the US is so free in the money business, lobbyists have taken it upon themselves to buy support from politicians.

In Europe, yes, certain kinds of hate speech are banned. You can still call blacks a lesser race, of course, or say that the law should be different for different people. What's banned is inciting violence, because we've had a great deal of trouble with people inciting violence and calling for the extermination of people. Yeah, we have strict gun control. In fact, guns are banned in many of the mentioned states. That's our culture. That might make us a bit less free, but it has stopped a lot of pain and suffering over the years. See, as long as the US bans gay marriage in any of the states, it is not a truly free place.

So you're saying what I'm saying. Both are pretty free, but you just would prefer the European style than the American style. Which are actually pretty similar. But we shouldn't consider one better than the other. And the definition of #1 is left to each person. I'm just glad I live in the country that I consider #1 (though my state kinda sucks).

And yea when it comes to freedom Somalia has everyone beat lel.

[Acro]

It should be recognized Revan and Carroll have a good chance of winning.

Revan is immensely popular in Florida, securing the 4th largest state in terms of electoral votes / 27 electoral votes, and his leanings are to the right.

Carroll is popular in his home state of Illinois, and his leanings are towards the left, securing another 21 votes.

I plan to have a good advantage in battleground states like Iowa, Washington, and Minnesota. I don't know if I can mess with the Solid South, but I like my chances in Pennsylvania and Virginia. Tallying up my expectations for easy win states, 90 electoral votes. Biggest third party candidate in history. That's not calculating the immense amount of switchers to the Federalist party. Polls show in left or right leaning states, there's more moderates then seen on surveys because there's no other electoral option. The Federalist Party is going to get me a TON of access to those types of voters, which is around 45% of all voters.

Even if I lose, this gets me a shit ton of publicity and gives me a hell of a chance for 2020.

Washington will be solid for Buswell so haha

[Arlenton]

Likely state ratings in a hypothetical election between Buswell (D), McCall (R), and Revan (F) and yes, Washington is solidly for Buswell.


Alabama- Center of GOP control in the deep south, safe McCall
Alaska- Generally red, but fond of independents like Revan, likely McCall
Arizona- Usually red, a moderate independent may have some appeal and help the Dem, large Hispanic population could be up for grabs, likely McCall
Arkansa- Deep red, Ozark state, safe McCall
California- Democrats' golden coast, safe Buswell
Colorado- Buswell will have the appeal of urban Dems, McCall the rural areas, Revan could make some ground in some groups, the Hispanic vote could decide the winner, tossup
Connecticut- Moderate blue state, Revan could make some ground, likely Buswell
D.C.- It is statistically impossible for a Democrat to lose here, safe Buswell
Delaware- Mostly blue state, Revan doing well in the northern urban areas could hamper Buswell, likely Buswell
Florida- The ultimate swing state, always a close race, McCall's southern appeal would help in the panhandle and anti-Castro background with Cubans, Buswell will no doubt have the support of many urban southeastern counties, but Revan's popularity would truley make this state a three way race, tossup
Georgia- Republican, its large Democrat loyal black population not enough to overcome the white GOP loyal population, Safe McCall
Hawaii- A Democratic safe haven in the Pacific, Safe Buswell
Idaho- Potato farmers and Republicans, Safe McCall
Illinois- Ruled by the Chicago Democratic political machine, but with the support of local Democrat Carroll, Revan should make some ground. likely Buswell
Indiana- A generally red state, but with Revan's moderate image and Carroll's likely appeal to Midwestern Democrats, the Federalists may make some ground, Likely McCall
Iowa- A smaller swing state, Republican farmers and riverside Democrats, tossup
Kansas- A state known for being Republican throughout history, Safe McCall
Kentucky- A southern Ozark/Appalachian state, a perfect fit for McCall, safe McCall
Louisiana- A deep southern state that keeps most it's Democrats in a coastal city a few feet below sea level, safe McCall
Maine- A blue, New England, paradise, pretty Democratic yet moderate enough for Revan to be heard, likely Buswell
Maryland- Its large urban area stretching out from DC keeps this state reliably Democratic, safe Buswell
Massachusetts- Urban, New England coast, and arguably the most liberal state in America, this state is the definition of blue state, safe Buswell
Michigan- Unionized industrial workers give the Democrats the edge here, but the conservative blue collars are proven to be attracted to social conservatism and moderate candidates almost as much as they are to progressive economic policies, lean Buswell
Minnesota- Not as blue as it was in the 80s, the Democrats still retain a sleight yet clear edge, moderate opposition could change this, tossup
Mississippi- A deep southern state and arguably the most conservative, safe McCall
Missouri- Democrats' support lies in St. Lewis, but the rest of the state is pretty constantly Republican, likely McCall
Montana- Though not as red as its western neighbors, this state is reliably Republican, safe McCall
Nebraska- Corn fields and Republicans, safe McCall
Nevada- The large Hispanic population makes this state winnable to Democrats, but any candidate who takes the edge off the Hispanic Democratic vote denies them the win, tossup
New Hampshire- A small moderate state, though small it's electoral votes are no less important, tossup
New Jersey- A moderate blue state, Revan could get some ground, Likely Buswell
New Mexico- If Buswell manages to keep at least 65% of the Hispanic vote he wins the state, but a split or reduction of this percentage could risk letting the white westerners give McCall a win, tossup
New York- A large blue state, sometimes used to symbolize the Democratic party, safe Buswell
North Carolina- A southern coastal state, mostly Republican but it's large black population gives the Democrats hope, lean McCall
North Dakota- Fields and Republican, safe McCall
Ohio- A microcosm of the eastern US, a true swing state, whoever wins here almost always wins the White House, tossup
Oklahoma- Not a single county has gone for a Democrat in a presidential race since 2000, safe McCall
Oregon- Mostly blue and liberal, if it weren't for Buswell's northwestern appeal this sate could be a good target for any third party or independent to siphon off enough votes for the eastern and rural voters to give the Republican a win, likely Buswell
Pennsylvania- A large swing state, southwestern Appalachian voters have trended this state more and more Republican over the years, but the Democrats in Philadelphia have kept this state in their column recently, tossup
Rhode Island- A small urban state, safe Buswell
South Carolina- A southern, coastal state distrustful of federal regulation, safe McCall
South Dakota- More fields and Republicans, safe McCall
Tennessee- A southern Ozark/Appalachian state, safe McCall
Texas- The GOP's crown jewel it's, large, conservative, prosperous, and McCalls home state, safe McCall
Utah- Democrats can't even break 40% here, safe McCall
Vermont- This state just ended Church tax exemptions, there is no way the Democrat can lose here, safe Buswell
Virginia- The northeastern urban areas combined with a large enough black turnout can give the Democrats a win here, but the rural western and wealthy coastal voters can easily give the Republican a win, tossup
Washington- Blue, liberal, and Buswell's home state, safe Buswell
West Virginia- What's the difference between coal miners and polar bears? Democrats care about polar bears, safe McCall
Wisconsin- A good sized Midwestern swing state, tossup
Wyoming- A sparse population and wild western mindset makes for a big Republicna win, safe McCall


Safe Buswell: 113
California 55
D.C. 3
Hawaii 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 11
New York 29
Road Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 12


Likely Buswell: 55
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
Illinois 20
Main 4
New Jersey 14
Oregon 7


Lean Buswell: 16
Michigan 16


Tossup: 130
Colorado 9
Florida 29
Iowa 6
Minnesota 10
Nevada 6
New Hampshire 4
New Mexico 5
Ohio 18
Pennsylvania 20
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10


Lean McCall: 15
North Carolina 15


Likely McCall: 35
Alaska 3
Arizona 11
Indiana 11
Missouri 10


Safe McCall: 156
Alabama 9
Arkansas 6
Georgia 16
Idaho 4
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 8
Mississippi 6
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 9
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 38
Utah 6
West Virginia 5
Wyoming 3


What do you guys think? I used 2012 data and factored in a strong moderate third party performance to show the Federalists, though I kept their chances realistic like Perot 1992 levels.

[Armeia]

I'm considering having Cade be the dark horse to announce he's running, even though I haven't done much with him(yet, I have plenty of good ideas for bills). He'd be the only Libertarian so he would earn their vote easily.

[Arlenton]

It should be recognized Revan and Carroll have a good chance of winning.

Revan is immensely popular in Florida, securing the 4th largest state in terms of electoral votes / 27 electoral votes, and his leanings are to the right.

Carroll is popular in his home state of Illinois, and his leanings are towards the left, securing another 21 votes.

I plan to have a good advantage in battleground states like Iowa, Washington, and Minnesota. I don't know if I can mess with the Solid South, but I like my chances in Pennsylvania and Virginia. Tallying up my expectations for easy win states, 90 electoral votes. Biggest third party candidate in history. That's not calculating the immense amount of switchers to the Federalist party. Polls show in left or right leaning states, there's more moderates then seen on surveys because there's no other electoral option. The Federalist Party is going to get me a TON of access to those types of voters, which is around 45% of all voters.

Even if I lose, this gets me a shit ton of publicity and gives me a hell of a chance for 2020.

Your using pre-2010 census electoral vote data, Florida is now 29 and Illinois is now 20. And I'm assuming your base is suburban voters. Sure there are more moderates, but the two big parties have all the infrastructure. And depending by state, either rural or urban voters almost overpower the suburban voters, its a game of who turns out more, not really who gets the most moderates.

And Washington wouldn't be in play against Buswell.

[Paketo]

North Carolina is more of a likely then a lean state to republicans. we recently voted in Thom Tillis giving us two republican senators. I of course fill the role of Thom Tillis' election in this rp. With two republican senators, the state is seemingly voting more Republican than democrat.

[Arlenton]

North Carolina is more of a likely then a lean state to republicans. we recently voted in Thom Tillis giving us two republican senators. I of course fill the role of Thom Tillis' election in this rp. With two republican senators, the state is seemingly voting more Republican than democrat.

Yea, but it only went to Romney 50-48, the other likelys were all 54 at least. And Tillis winning was a huge surprise, for me at least, the polls said eh was going to lose. I guess it shows how weak democrats are in that region without that higher than average black vote brought out by Obama.

[Alouite]

Ah, that vote prediction is reasonable, but here is my opinion :

[Arlenton]

Ah, that vote prediction is reasonable, but here is my opinion :

(Image)

Reasonable but it seems a bit 2008ish, except for Louisiana. Why is Louisiana a tossup?

[Arlenton]

Ah, that vote prediction is reasonable, but here is my opinion :

(Image)

And why is Minnesota safe Republican?

Is this a McCain prediction for 2008?

[Alouite]

Ah, that vote prediction is reasonable, but here is my opinion :

(Image)

And why is Minnesota safe Republican?

Is this a McCain prediction for 2008?

Good Point on that Minnesota thing. I thought Louisiana would be going to the federalists due to a general mixture of democratic and republican opinions, this makes your point on that true also, for people to vote Federalist they wouldn't be either strongly dem. or repub. but moderate, so it would be more likely for them to go slightly Democratic.

[Arlenton]

According to the Cook Political Report, these are each states PVI's (Partisan Voting Index)


More Democratic
D.C. D+41
Vermont D+13
Massachusetts D+12
Hawaii D+12
Road Island D+11
New York D+10
Maryland D+9
Illinois D+8
California D+7
Connecticut D+7
Delaware D+7
Main D+5
Washington D+5
New Jersey D+4
Oregon D+4
Michigan D+4
Minnesota D+2
New Mexico D+2
Pennsylvania D+2
Wisconsin D+2
New Hampshire D+2
Iowa D+1
Nevada D+1
Colorado EVEN
Ohio R+1
Florida R+2
Virginia R+2
Missouri R+3
North Carolina R+4
Indiana R+6
Arizona R+6
Georgia R+7
Montana R+7
South Carolina R+8
West Virginia R+8
South Dakota R+9
Tennessee R+9
Arkansas R+9
North Dakota R+10
Louisiana R+10
Mississippi R+10
Texas R+10
Kentucky R+10
Kansas R+11
Alaska R+13
Nebraska R+13
Alabama R+13
Idaho R+17
Oklahoma R+17
Wyoming R+20
Utah R+20
More Republican

[Arlenton]

And why is Minnesota safe Republican?

Is this a McCain prediction for 2008?

Good Point on that Minnesota thing. I thought Louisiana would be going to the federalists due to a general mixture of democratic and republican opinions, this makes your point on that true also, for people to vote Federalist they wouldn't be either strongly dem. or repub. but moderate, so it would be more likely for them to go slightly Democratic.

Louisiana is a deep southern state, they aren't moderate, they vote conservative. And those voting Democrat are for the most part minorities. If it weren't for large black populations the deep southern states would be voting 70%, 80%, maybe 90% Republican.

[Kelinfort]

This is my analysis of the 2016 Election. Taking a look at partisanship and previous election results, along with the independent vote, these are my ratings:

Safe R's:
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Tennessee
Kentucky
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Arkansas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
West Virginia
South Carolina

Likely R's:
Georgia
Alaska
Montana
Missouri
Indiana

Lean R's:
North Carolina
Arizona

Tossup:
New Hampshire
Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Colorado
Nevada
Iowa

Lean Dem:
Wisconsin
New Mexico

Likely Dem:
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Minnesota
Maine 2nd CD

Safe Dem:
California
Oregon
Washington
New York
Illinois
Delaware
Maryland
DC
Massachusetts
Maine At-Large
Connecticut
Vermont
Hawaii
Rhode Island
New Jersey

[Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States]

Well, looks like the House of Representatives is going to pick the president for this election. That's a shame.

[Brutii Rebels]

I like buswells chances, hes got decent support and with a conservative/moderate VP he might pick up a few tossup states

[Anarchist States Of America]

Now I'm tempted to run for president lol

[Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States]

The way it looks right now, the Republicans are going to get both the presidency and the vice presidency. Unless, of course, someone questions the constitutionality of the current tie-braking system. Then, we might get our first court case!

[Arlenton]

Well, looks like the House of Representatives is going to pick the president for this election. That's a shame.

It depends on whether or not Revan can take Florida. But given that he's a strong third party candidate the odds of him taking any state is slim, though Florida is his best shot, though still the odds are against him there.

[Arlenton]

And when will the House vote on my Bill? I hate waiting to announce...

[Acro]

Well, looks like the House of Representatives is going to pick the president for this election. That's a shame.

It depends on whether or not Revan can take Florida. But given that he's a strong third party candidate the odds of him taking any state is slim, though Florida is his best shot, though still the odds are against him there.

If he takes florida that almost certainly ensures a Republican VP

[Arlenton]

It depends on whether or not Revan can take Florida. But given that he's a strong third party candidate the odds of him taking any state is slim, though Florida is his best shot, though still the odds are against him there.

If he takes florida that almost certainly ensures a Republican VP

That's true, but maybe the Presidency too Republicans take the house.

EDIT: In the event of a 269-269 tie in the electoral vote, or if no candidate gets 270, the Senate picks the VP and the House picks the President, for anyone who didn't know.

[Great Franconia and Verana]

Everybody talking about winning the Presidency, and Miranda Clark wasn't even mentioned once. Shame on you