AWWA Part III-The Great War(OOC-Now Closed)

[Ruridova]

On the record and for everyone to see, China has no legitimate claim on Jiaozhou, and I have had it decided for a long time that Jiaozhou is staying German.

[The Vaktovian Empire]

So, AFTER the civil war Brazil is about to haven finishes, Rurik I think it would be appropriate to haven tawantisuyu, URCA, Brazil, the three puppets, and the CSA have a World Baseball Classic along with Japan with our national teams. That is if you guys have them. Brazil got baseball ATL abouts 10 years ago.

[Ruridova]

新闻 - XINWEN
胶州每日新闻 - KIAOTSCHOU TÄGLICHEN NACHRICHTEN - JIAOZHOU DAILY NEWS
胶州语言 - 中國語文 - Deutsch - English

GOVERNOR TSANG SIGNS REAFFIRMATION, REFUTES PRO-CHINESE ARGUMENTS
September 7, 2014- Jiaozhou, Germany- Governor of the Jiaozhou Mandate Ruprecht Tsang signed the Reaffirmation of Jiaozhouan Autonomy Within and Unity With the Holy Roman Empire, calling Chinese attempts to claim the Mandate 'ridiculous'. The Reaffirmation was passed 209-to-1 by the People's Assembly yesterday, and represents Jiaozhou's continuing will to remain German, and not be forced under Chinese rule. The signing came amidst massive anti-Chinese protests in all seven districts of the Mandate.

Jiaozhou has been German since the 1830s, when Germany began leasing the land from China. It purchased the land in the 1890s, and granted great autonomy to Jiaozhou in the 1950s. In the nearly two centuries that Jiaozhou has been German, we have grown quite prosperous, prestigious, and free. In addition, Jiaozhou has developed a rich culture of its own, distinct from the cultures of China. Jiaozhou has unique food, its own language, and is dominated religiously by the Jiaozhouan Protestant Church. Indeed, many Jiaozhouans have not considered themselves Chinese since the 1800s. Attempts by China to conquer or occupy Jiaozhou have failed repeatedly, the most recent attempt being foiled by the Mandate Police before it could even get off the ground, with the Chinese agents being captured. And the Jiaozhouan people and government have repeatedly and overwhelmingly opposed any 'reunification' with China.

In spite of this, however, the Chinese authorities in Beijing claim Jiaozhou as Chinese territory. Chinese Prime Minister Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj insisted, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, that Jiaozhou was "an integral part of China," claiming in accurately that Jiaozhou was under "illegal German occupation" and needed to be liberated. His brain-dead buffoonery was echoed by Speaker Jiang Mianhieng, demanding that Jiaozhou return Chinese spies who were captured attempting to gain support for a coup d'état against the elected Jiaozhouan government "to Chinese soil". The Chinese parliament also urged "Mayor Zeng Ruprecht" not to sign the bill passed by "the City Council", saying it would chip away Jiaozhou's "traditional ties to Beijing".

Unfortunately for the imperialists in Beijing, Governor Tsang serves the will of the Jiaozhouan people, not Beijing's cronies, and gladly signed the bill into law. "The simple truth is that Jiaozhou is as Chinese as Czechia is German. While Jiaozhou was Chinese once, that has not been the case for at least a century. Jiaozhouans are now a unique people with their own language and culture, and have no valid reason to support Chinese occupation. Indeed, we have seen massive public opposition to Chinese destruction of Jiaozhouan autonomy for decades. We see it in their elected government; we see it in the 2003 referendum; we see it in the opinion polls; we see it in the anti-Chinese protests going on across Jiaozhou as we speak. The Jiaozhouan people have been brought liberty, prosperity, and security by Germany, at a level far greater than the Chinese Empire could hope for. Joining China would have no benefits for us, and in fact would likely see our distinct culture destroyed by Beijing in the name of 'uniformity'. It would see us lose our identity, autonomy, and good fortune. As a result, the Jiaozhouan people are nearly unanimously opposed to the concept, and I do not expect that to change."

Tsang also told the press that the Mandate Police and German Army would not return the Chinese agents captured earlier this month. "The fact that China is sending in secret agents undercover to attempt a coup shows how desperate they've become. At least a few people in Beijing have realized that Jiaozhou would never willingly make the moronic move to rejoin China, and are thus determined to force Jiaozhou in by any means necessary, even if it means quashing the people's government." He concluded that "it would be incredibly foolish to let these men, who attempted to do a great tyranny to the Jiaozhouan people, go. They have committed a crime and will face punishment for their actions if found guilty."

Meanwhile, on the streets, anti-Chinese protests continued, with nearly 3 million people filling the streets of Jiaozhou's seven districts. The demonstrators burned effigies and flags, and held signs accusing China of treachery, imperialism, and hypocrisy. Dietrich Ma, one of the protestors, spoke with Xinwen to explain why he was protesting. "The Chinese government shows no regards for our will or the facts," he told us. "They believe that they should be able to march in and occupy us, and destroy our freedom and wealth and culture. But I can't simply sit back, can I? I have to show Beijing that they aren't wanted here, and won't ever be." Another protestor, Sieglinde Qin, echoed the sentiment. "The Chinese refuse to recognize the fact that we aren't Chinese. They go on pretending that we want to be ruled from Beijing instead of from Jiaozhou. We aren't Chinese. We are Jiaozhouan. We will keep our autonomy and its benefits, not accept the chains of slavery to the Chinese Emperor. Under Germany and the Mandate, we have become free and well-off. Under China, we would lose that freedom and that prosperity. They would try to destroy everything that makes us unique. I would rather die than let that happen."

Meanwhile, in Berlin, Germany has announced that it will begin the process of integration into the EAU and that it will become an EAU member. This means that Jiaozhou is now protected from Chinese imperialism by the great nations of the EAU like Russia, the USSR, and the UK, in addition to Germany. The representatives of Portugal, for unknown reasons, attempted to edit membership rules so that Jiaozhou and German Oceania, while German, would not be EAU territory. However, the proposal was overwhelmingly rejected, saying that this would prevent the economic boons associated with all of Germany belonging to the EAU, went against the precedent established by other international organizations, and made literally no sense.

"I am sure that, no matter what happens, Jiaozhou will not submit itself to rape by China," Speaker of the People's Assembly Anneke Shen told the press. "With the help of Germany and the EAU, and with the determination of the Jiaozhouan people, the shackles of Chinese rule will never be thrust upon the Jiaozhouan people. It is we who will determine our fate, and with the help of our allies, we will safeguard our accomplishments and secure our freedom and fortune. That will never change, no matter how hard Beijing tries. Jiaozhou is Jiaozhouan, and German, and will soon be Eurasian. But it is not, and will not be, Chinese."

[Ruridova]

NORD-NEUGUINEER WELLE NEWS-in-BRIEF September 7, 2014
Deutsch - Tok Pisin - English - other

JIAOZHOU REAFFIRMS SEPARATION FROM CHINA AS BEIJING ATTEMPTS TO SEIZE THE MANDATE
Ruprecht Tsang, Governor of the Jiaozhou Mandate, signed a symbolic reaffirmation of Jiaozhouan autonomy within Germany today despite warnings from the Chinese government, telling the press that allowing China to take Jiaozhou would result in the total destruction of Jiaozhou's wealth, freedom, and culture. The Reaffirmation was passed by the People's Assembly of the Mandate 209-to-1, and has massive popular support in the German overseas territory. China- which views Jiaozhou as occupied territory, in spite of Jiaozhouan support for German rule- urged Ruprecht Tsang(incorrectly called "mayor of Jiaozhou") to not sign the bill, saying that it would destroy Jiaozhou's "traditional ties to China". Jiaozhou also refused to return several captured Chinese agents attempting to engineer a coup in the territory.
RIGHT-WING SURGING IN GERMANY FOLLOWING SURRENDER, POLLS FIND
The right-wing Alternativ für Deutschland party has surged in the polls following the German surrender to the Eurasian Union, according to several groups in the country. At the same time, popularity of the powerful Christian Democrats and Social Democrats have dropped, with many Germans in the right and center viewing them as weak. While a narrow majority of Germans supported the actions taken to end the Crisis of 2014, a slight minority believe that further action should be taken. Chancellor Angela Merkel has called AfD's policies and opinions "reckless and outdated," saying that Germany's future lies in burying the hatchet and joining the EAU, a sentiment echoed by the Social Democrats.
CAUCASIA TO TRY 'TRAITOR TO THE PEOPLE' FOR HIGH TREASON, SEDITION
The Caucasian Free State announced that political dissident Giorgi Eristavi is to be tried for high treason and sedition after he was captured in 2011 smuggling foreign news reports and goods into the country through its border with Rum. Eristavi successfully broke out of a prison camp and nearly made it to Iran before being recaptured by the Free State in 2013. Foreign humanitarian groups have called for Eristavi's release, and many are worried that Caucasia's justice system- which mainly exists to serve show trials- will give Eristavi and unfair trial. However, the Caucasian government has rejected these campaigns, saying that Eristavi's "criminal actions" cannot go unpunished and that he would be given too lenient a sentence, if any, outside of Caucasia for its actions. Caucasia has been ruled by the tyrannical Svanidze dynasty since the 1830s, with Nikoloz Svanidze being the great-great-great-great-great-grandson of the country's founder and first ruler, Mikheil Svanidze. The Caucasian government is internationally infamous for its genocide of non-Georgians in the country, its brutal repression of dissidents, its various human rights violations, and its aggressive foreign policy.
VOLTA SAYS IT WILL BEGIN 'OFFENSIVE WAR' AGAINST RELIGIOUS MILITIAS
Voltan Chancellor Wilhelm Kigbafori Soro has said that his government will begin an 'offensive war' against Muslim, Vudun, and Christian militias that have seized the capital, the Niger River, and Lake Volta, urging citizens to take arms against "petty factionalists and religious terrorists who seek to destroy the country." The Voltan government has been humiliated after losing Niamey, Timbuktu, Gao, Bamako, Segou, Accra, Friedrichsburg, Ougadougou, Lome, and Neuhafen, only retaining control of the Ivory Coast. The Volta, a former German colony composed of various ethnic and religious groups placed together by Europeans with little knowledge of the people or the land, is one of numerous African countries torn apart by ethnic and religious conflicts. This civil war, however, is looking to be one of Africa's most severe, with the country running the risk of totally losing central authority and becoming a failed state.

[Ruridova]

Map update

Changes from previous update

Map-itself-related
- duplicate Mouth-of-the-Don-River removed from Sea of Azov
RP-related
- Avignon returned to French control, per Agrioli-Lachapelle Agreement
- Niger-Volta border fixed to run along Niger River, as has been the case ICly and OoCly since part 2

[Unicario]

On the record and for everyone to see, China has no legitimate claim on Jiaozhou, and I have had it decided for a long time that Jiaozhou is staying German.

I'd say they *have* a legitimate claim, you know, Qingdao being a lease Germany bought from China, but whether or not they have the geopolitical capacity to enforce their will is a different matter.

[Ruridova]

On the record and for everyone to see, China has no legitimate claim on Jiaozhou, and I have had it decided for a long time that Jiaozhou is staying German.

I'd say they *have* a legitimate claim, you know, Qingdao being a lease Germany bought from China, but whether or not they have the geopolitical capacity to enforce their will is a different matter.

The logic behind the Chinese claim(it was ours once) is the same as the logic behind the German claim of Czechia(it was ours once). And just as the Czechoslovaks didn't want to be part of Germany, the Jiaozhouans don't want to be part of China, meaning that popular sovereignty is basically destroying any claims China tries to make.

[Unicario]

I'd say they *have* a legitimate claim, you know, Qingdao being a lease Germany bought from China, but whether or not they have the geopolitical capacity to enforce their will is a different matter.

The logic behind the Chinese claim(it was ours once) is the same as the logic behind the German claim of Czechia(it was ours once). And just as the Czechoslovaks didn't want to be part of Germany, the Jiaozhouans don't want to be part of China, meaning that popular sovereignty is basically destroying any claims China tries to make.

Though the Chinese claim is made by merit that Germany leased territory and never returned it. The reason why Japan is silent on the Jiaozhou matter is because it has no desire to hash up Japanese Hong Kong's whole status, which has been effectually made a permanent lease (China has yet to bring it up before the AU)

[Ruridova]

The logic behind the Chinese claim(it was ours once) is the same as the logic behind the German claim of Czechia(it was ours once). And just as the Czechoslovaks didn't want to be part of Germany, the Jiaozhouans don't want to be part of China, meaning that popular sovereignty is basically destroying any claims China tries to make.

Though the Chinese claim is made by merit that Germany leased territory and never returned it. The reason why Japan is silent on the Jiaozhou matter is because it has no desire to hash up Japanese Hong Kong's whole status, which has been effectually made a permanent lease (China has yet to bring it up before the AU)

Germany leased the land from 1835 to 1892. In 1892, it purchased the land from China and thus ended the lease.

[The Vaktovian Empire]

Map update

Changes from previous update

Map-itself-related
- duplicate Mouth-of-the-Don-River removed from Sea of Azov
RP-related
- Avignon returned to French control, per Agrioli-Lachapelle Agreement
- Niger-Volta border fixed to run along Niger River, as has been the case ICly and OoCly since part 2

I don't know if boji meant a path to Avignon or not. If not, lachapelles gonna come asking for more.

[Unicario]

Though the Chinese claim is made by merit that Germany leased territory and never returned it. The reason why Japan is silent on the Jiaozhou matter is because it has no desire to hash up Japanese Hong Kong's whole status, which has been effectually made a permanent lease (China has yet to bring it up before the AU)

Germany leased the land from 1835 to 1892. In 1892, it purchased the land from China and thus ended the lease.

Well in that case, it's German by legal merit.

[Unicario]

Map update

Changes from previous update

Map-itself-related
- duplicate Mouth-of-the-Don-River removed from Sea of Azov
RP-related
- Avignon returned to French control, per Agrioli-Lachapelle Agreement
- Niger-Volta border fixed to run along Niger River, as has been the case ICly and OoCly since part 2

I don't know if bonk meant a path to Avignon or not. If not, lachapelles gonna come asking for more.

Hahahahaha

[Ruridova]

Germany leased the land from 1835 to 1892. In 1892, it purchased the land from China and thus ended the lease.

Well in that case, it's German by legal merit.

And by popular sovereignty.
-China convinced Germany to hold a referendum in 2003. 97% of Jiaozhouans voted to stay with Germany. Only 3% supported joining China. The referendum was internationally monitored, and no fraud was present.
-The elected government of Jiaozhou has repeatedly expressed opposition to China and support for Germany. A symbolic reaffirmation of Jiaozhouan support for Germany was passed by the People's Assembly 209-1 and signed by the Governor yesterday.
-On the occasions where China begins making moves towards Jiaozhou, Jiaozhouan citizens are notorious for starting anti-Chinese protests. At present, over 3 million of Jiaozhou's 12.5 million are protesting against China ATL.

[The Vaktovian Empire]

So, AFTER the civil war Brazil is about to haven finishes, Rurik I think it would be appropriate to haven tawantisuyu, URCA, Brazil, the three puppets, and the CSA have a World Baseball Classic along with Japan with our national teams. That is if you guys have them. Brazil got baseball ATL abouts 10 years ago.

[Ruridova]

So, AFTER the civil war Brazil is about to haven finishes, Rurik I think it would be appropriate to haven tawantisuyu, URCA, Brazil, the three puppets, and the CSA have a World Baseball Classic along with Japan with our national teams. That is if you guys have them. Brazil got baseball ATL abouts 10 years ago.

Ok?

[The Vaktovian Empire]

Ok?

What? Too many spelling errors? I used mobile at the time.

[Unicario]

Well in that case, it's German by legal merit.

And by popular sovereignty.
-China convinced Germany to hold a referendum in 2003. 97% of Jiaozhouans voted to stay with Germany. Only 3% supported joining China. The referendum was internationally monitored, and no fraud was present.
-The elected government of Jiaozhou has repeatedly expressed opposition to China and support for Germany. A symbolic reaffirmation of Jiaozhouan support for Germany was passed by the People's Assembly 209-1 and signed by the Governor yesterday.
-On the occasions where China begins making moves towards Jiaozhou, Jiaozhouan citizens are notorious for starting anti-Chinese protests. At present, over 3 million of Jiaozhou's 12.5 million are protesting against China ATL.

In that case, Japan would probably affirm Germany's right to the land and just simply request that Jiaozhou and German Oceania become a member of the Asian Union as a "self-governing entity of a foreign power", as so to affirm that Jiaozhou gets to have a say in Asian affairs (economic especially)

What currency would the Jiaozhou territory use? German Mark or the Asian yen?

[Ruridova]

And by popular sovereignty.
-China convinced Germany to hold a referendum in 2003. 97% of Jiaozhouans voted to stay with Germany. Only 3% supported joining China. The referendum was internationally monitored, and no fraud was present.
-The elected government of Jiaozhou has repeatedly expressed opposition to China and support for Germany. A symbolic reaffirmation of Jiaozhouan support for Germany was passed by the People's Assembly 209-1 and signed by the Governor yesterday.
-On the occasions where China begins making moves towards Jiaozhou, Jiaozhouan citizens are notorious for starting anti-Chinese protests. At present, over 3 million of Jiaozhou's 12.5 million are protesting against China ATL.

In that case, Japan would probably affirm Germany's right to the land and just simply request that Jiaozhou and German Oceania become a member of the Asian Union as a "self-governing entity of a foreign power", as so to affirm that Jiaozhou gets to have a say in Asian affairs (economic especially)

What currency would the Jiaozhou territory use? German Mark or the Asian yen?

Jiaozhou gets the Jiaozhouan mark with the German mark and Asian yen as legal currency, akin to the Hong Kong dollar or the Macanese pataca.

As for the Asian Union, Germany accepted EAU membership earlier today, meaning that Jiaozhou and German Oceanian would be EAU as well... the AU admitting them as 'German East Asia', as you propose through TG, might work, but would be slightly confusing because the Self-Governing Overseas Territory of Jiaozhou and the Overseas Territory of German Oceania aren't led by one authority outside of the government in Berlin.

[Unicario]

In that case, Japan would probably affirm Germany's right to the land and just simply request that Jiaozhou and German Oceania become a member of the Asian Union as a "self-governing entity of a foreign power", as so to affirm that Jiaozhou gets to have a say in Asian affairs (economic especially)

What currency would the Jiaozhou territory use? German Mark or the Asian yen?

Jiaozhou gets the Jiaozhouan mark with the German mark and Asian yen as legal currency, akin to the Hong Kong dollar or the Macanese pataca.

As for the Asian Union, Germany accepted EAU membership earlier today, meaning that Jiaozhou and German Oceanian would be EAU as well... the AU admitting them as 'German East Asia', as you propose through TG, might work, but would be slightly confusing because the Self-Governing Overseas Territory of Jiaozhou and the Overseas Territory of German Oceania aren't led by one authority outside of the government in Berlin.

Well in that case, Oceania and Jiaozhou would be admitted as seperate "self-governing" entities. Japan wants all of Asia to be involved in the AU, from East to West -- it wants to make a point that Asia is a strong place, and Japan is willing to find ways for European territory to get into the AU -- as evidenced by the fact that Amsterdam is an AU member.

[Luziyca]

Ok?

What? Too many spelling errors? I used mobile at the time.

As for Madagascar, I have an idea.

Perhaps in 1867, China could buy Madagascar off of France (or after France loses West Africa) under the condition the Chinese respect French culture and not try to Sincize them.

[Luziyca]

And by popular sovereignty.
-China convinced Germany to hold a referendum in 2003. 97% of Jiaozhouans voted to stay with Germany. Only 3% supported joining China. The referendum was internationally monitored, and no fraud was present.
-The elected government of Jiaozhou has repeatedly expressed opposition to China and support for Germany. A symbolic reaffirmation of Jiaozhouan support for Germany was passed by the People's Assembly 209-1 and signed by the Governor yesterday.
-On the occasions where China begins making moves towards Jiaozhou, Jiaozhouan citizens are notorious for starting anti-Chinese protests. At present, over 3 million of Jiaozhou's 12.5 million are protesting against China ATL.

In that case, Japan would probably affirm Germany's right to the land and just simply request that Jiaozhou and German Oceania become a member of the Asian Union as a "self-governing entity of a foreign power", as so to affirm that Jiaozhou gets to have a say in Asian affairs (economic especially)

What currency would the Jiaozhou territory use? German Mark or the Asian yen?

I think China would insist Jiaozhou is a member of the Asian Union since formation because it is a part of China. Thus, China would likely try to veto Jiaozhou's entry under the grounds that it is already part of the Asian Union.

[Unicario]

In that case, Japan would probably affirm Germany's right to the land and just simply request that Jiaozhou and German Oceania become a member of the Asian Union as a "self-governing entity of a foreign power", as so to affirm that Jiaozhou gets to have a say in Asian affairs (economic especially)

What currency would the Jiaozhou territory use? German Mark or the Asian yen?

I think China would insist Jiaozhou is a member of the Asian Union since formation because it is a part of China. Thus, China would likely try to veto Jiaozhou's entry under the grounds that it is already part of the Asian Union.

Japan would argue the contrary on these grounds:
1. Popular referendum has rejected union with China overwhelmingly
2. China has legally sold off their rights to the land in an 1892 treaty of sale with the German Empire -- Japan would state that since it was not done under duress, it holds legal ground unless otherwise declared illegal by a German and Chinese court.
3. Jiaozhou is under Chinese duress and pressure, violating the AU's whole "human rights" business.

[Luziyca]

I think China would insist Jiaozhou is a member of the Asian Union since formation because it is a part of China. Thus, China would likely try to veto Jiaozhou's entry under the grounds that it is already part of the Asian Union.

Japan would argue the contrary on these grounds:
1. Popular referendum has rejected union with China overwhelmingly
2. China has legally sold off their rights to the land in an 1892 treaty of sale with the German Empire -- Japan would state that since it was not done under duress, it holds legal ground unless otherwise declared illegal by a German and Chinese court.
3. Jiaozhou is under Chinese duress and pressure, violating the AU's whole "human rights" business.

China will reply...

1. The culture has been historically Chinese, they speak a dialect of Chinese, and the land was part of various Chinese dynasties
2. The sale was declared illegal in a Supreme Court ruling in 1975 since it was done "in a time where colonialism was acceptable."
3. Jiaozhou is under German durress and pressure, with the 2003 referendum having some evidence of voter fraud (according to rightist Chinese sources) by German soldiers forcing Jiaozhouans to vote yes or risk being humiliated

And most importantly...
4. It is already a member of the Asian Union, since it is a part of an AU member nation (China)

[Ruridova]

Japan would argue the contrary on these grounds:
1. Popular referendum has rejected union with China overwhelmingly
2. China has legally sold off their rights to the land in an 1892 treaty of sale with the German Empire -- Japan would state that since it was not done under duress, it holds legal ground unless otherwise declared illegal by a German and Chinese court.
3. Jiaozhou is under Chinese duress and pressure, violating the AU's whole "human rights" business.

China will reply...

1. The culture has been historically Chinese, they speak a dialect of Chinese, and the land was part of various Chinese dynasties
2. The sale was declared illegal in a Supreme Court ruling in 1975 since it was done "in a time where colonialism was acceptable."
3. Jiaozhou is under German durress and pressure, with the 2003 referendum having some evidence of voter fraud (according to rightist Chinese sources) by German soldiers forcing Jiaozhouans to vote yes or risk being humiliated

And most importantly...
4. It is already a member of the Asian Union, since it is a part of an AU member nation (China)

1a. Jiaozhouan culture has since grown unique(with the development of the Jiaozhouan language, unique local cuisine, and the spread of a unique form of Protestantism through Jiaozhou); Italy might as well try to claim that France is rightfully Italian because they both had historically Latin cultures.
1b. Jiaozhouan, while considered a dialect by the Chinese language ministry, would be recognized by a foreign language by the Jiaozhouan language ministry. In addition, most professional linguists OTL and ATL list Chinese as a collection of languages with some level of mutual intelligibility, meaning that Jiaozhouan would only be a Sinitic language, not Chinese, in the eyes of linguistic experts. Again, the Italy-France comparison works.
1c. Czechia was ruled by Germany via the HRE and various German dynasties for centuries. That did not prevent China from recognizing Czechoslovakia. This means that China is being hypocritical and the argument should be dismissed on those grounds.
2. The problem is that the past is the past and can't be changed. The CSC's ruling in 1975 can't change what happened in 1892. In addition, most of China's outer provinces were colonized in a time where colonialism was acceptable, and have been partially colonized by Chinese. In short, China should- according to its own argument- release Tibet, Uyghurstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Manchuria, etc., etc. in order to get Jiaozhou. If France OTL was to demand that the US return Louisiana using that logic, the US and the world would just laugh at France. The argument is ridiculous and China's take is patently hypocritical, meaning that the argument it presents should be taken seriously by no one.
3a. Jiaozhou is in essence independent in everything but defense and foreign affairs, and this is obvious to anyone who's actually looking, meaning that claims of German 'duress' in Jiaozhou would be easily dismissed.
3b. The 2003 referendum was judged free and fair by the UN, EAU, AsU, AfrU, OAS, and Comintern, as well as groups like Amnesty International, and any other international organizations willing to participate. The Chinese equivalent of Fox News isn't going to be taken as seriously as the rulings of a dozen major international organizations and human rights groups.
3c. Jiaozhou is, however, under intense Chinese duress, seeing that China is imposing 'economic quarantines' using Czechoslovakia as an excuse, and is attempting to lead coups in which the elected government would be overthrown and replaced by Chinese undercover agents creating an unelected pro-Beijing clique. This means that China is violating AsU human rights laws and international rules about popular sovereignty- meaning that the government might be in need of a visit to the International Court of Justice over in the Hague.

4. Jiaozhou has not been a part of China since 1835 and/or 1892, depending on if you start with the Lease or the Purchase, for the following reasons:
4a. Germany owns the territory by legal merit, since it purchased it in 1892.
4b. Germany owns it by right of popular sovereignty. The overwhelming majority of international monitoring groups have found referendums on the issue(such as China's rejection by 97% of the population in 2003) to be held fairly without interference, and these groups have also concluded that Jiaouzhou's government(which is famed for passing condemnations of China and reaffirmations of unity with Germany) has been freely and fairly elected by the Jiaozhouan populace.
5. What Chinese people think Jiaozhou is doesn't matter. When Spain wanted Gibraltar 'returned', they didn't ask the Spanish what they want; they asked the Gibraltarians what they want. When Argentina throws a hissyfit over the Falklands/Malvinas, they don't use the Argentinian opinion to decide; they use the opinions of Falklanders. When, on September 18th OTL and ATL, Scotland holds its independence referendum, they're not going to determine which side wins based on what England wants; they're going to determine which side wins based on what Scotland wants. If the Chinese people want to continually delude themselves, and believe in a fantasy world that makes them feel better about Chinese imperialism, that's great for them. But they should not be allowed to control Jiaozhou's fate; Jiaozhou should control Jiaozhou's fate. And Jiaozhou has pretty clearly and repeatedly said "fuck off, asshole" to China.

6. The question for most Jiaozhouans is whether or not joining the AsU would make sense.
6a. Jiaozhou is already to be part of the EAU, which would likely to be able to provide roughly equivalent defensive and economic capability.
6b. Being an AsU member would force them to play nice with China, and the AsU might be used by China to try and force its will. And if Japan can stop China with Jiaozhou as an AsU member, then Japan should still be able to if it is not a member.
6c. Germany would view having part of the country under the EAU and AsU as rather complex, and if the EAU and AsU had differing laws on something or clashed, Jiaozhou would be trapped.

[Unicario]

Good points, Ruri.