The Spark of the Divine [OOC|Closed]

[G-Tech Corporation]

Ahhhh, I see. I missed your post, now it's all good.

You're very close to stone, but you've found something else very interesting.

Ten bucks if someone can tell me what it says.

Agar Grove?

It's actually a Monolith, which has !!FUN!! effects. Throw a Champion or some Followers at it. If you keep exploring in that direction, the ground is growing rockier.

[Ralnis]

Agar Grove?

It's actually a Monolith, which has !!FUN!! effects. Throw a Champion through it If you keep exploring in that direction, the ground is growing rockier.

Can you say Outworld/Sid Meier's Alpha Centuari?

[G-Tech Corporation]

It's actually a Monolith, which has !!FUN!! effects. Throw a Champion through it If you keep exploring in that direction, the ground is growing rockier.

Can you say Outworld/Sid Meier's Alpha Centuari?

Heh, no mind worms or aliens, just arcane artifacts and remnants of creation.

That reminds me, I should elaborate on it's description.

[The Inritus Extraho]

Just did, because of me the map expanded, just wanted to know by how much and see if I hit the jackpot.

Ahhhh, I see. I missed your post, now it's all good.

You're very close to stone, but you've found something else very interesting.

Ten bucks if someone can tell me what it says.

... G-Tech, which update is canonical? Because I think it's unfair to have Me, Corv, and Kona have put in that much effort when it seems to us that you just got to say "nah, doesn't happen"; we worked hard to come up with a plan to do that, and when the plan worked, I wrote the update. In response, you seemed to write another update that just overrides it, including changing which ditch we thought was removed, and clarifying a rule (that worked against us, but no hard feelings there, it just wasn't written well at first). I mean, we (together) spent 1000 faith and three player-turns, just to see you burn a couple hundred faith, one player-turn, and say "Nope, I get to come out of this better than I went in."

Well, your update doesn't include any defenses on my part, so that's an issue.

Let's look at this from a probability standpoint.

Your first attack had a 6+ chance of wounding 5 people and a 9+ chance of killing five.

So, on average, two point five people would be wounded, and point five would die. Additionally, my followers had a 5/12ths chance of taking no damage, because of the random nature of the Malady and my Divine Protection. You got very lucky on wounding all of the ones you hit, but four resisted, also lucky on my part, so one was wounded.


Then, in combat, 26 followers attacked. Given that 60% of them would cross on the 5+, that makes for about 14-15 total attackers. Thirteen actually cross, slightly lower than the average, but still very close.
Then, on average, one in every ten followers will inflict a wound, slightly higher due to Gal'Duls. I took 1 Wound, probably a bit low statistically, since probably about 1.5-1.6 should have actually been done, but sensible.
That wound was saved, which is also very close to likely, since I save at a 40% chance. There was also the 5/12ths chance to save due to Divine Protection, but I didn't have to roll that.

I inflicted no Wounds, also a statistical probability, since six of my followers were fighting [.6 Wounds], so they had better than even odds at inflicting 1 Wound, but they didn't so and such is life.
I made one conversion, the most probable outcome since my six followers should make [.6 Conversions], and Gal'Duls Warrior failed, the most probable outcome. [80%] All in all, my update included all the variables, and was the most average statistically, so I think it makes sense to have it as canonical.

Except, again, there wasn't a ditch to cross, G-Tech.
There wasn't a 5/12 DP save.
And it wasn't exactly.

Jesus, I guess three people teaming up can't kill you. Well, GG then, I guess.

Also, if we're playing by averages, I'm going to throw six guys at you every turn. Hey look, one guaranteed kill! It's statistically the most likely, after all!
Everyone knows the only thing that ever happens is averages, right? Right?

Am I supposed to go through every post and point out how you haven't been going by averages up to this point? But because suddenly, your settlement is on the line because three of the more powerful (sorry others, this is my opinion) factions teamed up to try and kill you - and came off taking two-thirds of you out - averages are the only thing that matters? This is pissing me off. I collaborated with two others to make a move. I typed up the entire post. I'm not sure if you're accusing me of lying about rolls, but rolls are one of the more sacred things to me, being an avid D&D player. I succeeded; my plan worked. And then it was shot down because you decided to roll everything again, give yourself a second shot at survival, when the logical plan should have worked.

[Ralnis]

Can you say Outworld/Sid Meier's Alpha Centuari?

Heh, no mind worms or aliens, just arcane artifacts and remnants of creation.

Well, I need to keep exploring if I am to accomplish my goal.

[G-Tech Corporation]

Ahhhh, I see. I missed your post, now it's all good.

You're very close to stone, but you've found something else very interesting.

Ten bucks if someone can tell me what it says.



Well, your update doesn't include any defenses on my part, so that's an issue.

Let's look at this from a probability standpoint.

Your first attack had a 6+ chance of wounding 5 people and a 9+ chance of killing five.

So, on average, two point five people would be wounded, and point five would die. Additionally, my followers had a 5/12ths chance of taking no damage, because of the random nature of the Malady and my Divine Protection. You got very lucky on wounding all of the ones you hit, but four resisted, also lucky on my part, so one was wounded.


Then, in combat, 26 followers attacked. Given that 60% of them would cross on the 5+, that makes for about 14-15 total attackers. Thirteen actually cross, slightly lower than the average, but still very close.
Then, on average, one in every ten followers will inflict a wound, slightly higher due to Gal'Duls. I took 1 Wound, probably a bit low statistically, since probably about 1.5-1.6 should have actually been done, but sensible.
That wound was saved, which is also very close to likely, since I save at a 40% chance. There was also the 5/12ths chance to save due to Divine Protection, but I didn't have to roll that.

I inflicted no Wounds, also a statistical probability, since six of my followers were fighting [.6 Wounds], so they had better than even odds at inflicting 1 Wound, but they didn't so and such is life.
I made one conversion, the most probable outcome since my six followers should make [.6 Conversions], and Gal'Duls Warrior failed, the most probable outcome. [80%] All in all, my update included all the variables, and was the most average statistically, so I think it makes sense to have it as canonical.

Except, again, there wasn't a ditch to cross, G-Tech.
There wasn't a 5/12 DP save.
And it wasn't exactly.

Jesus, I guess three people teaming up can't kill you. Well, GG then, I guess.

Also, if we're playing by averages, I'm going to throw six guys at you every turn. Hey look, one guaranteed kill! It's statistically the most likely, after all!

Let's say, for a moment, there wasn't a ditch to cross under one of the huts. That means six of my followers don't benefit from that protection. Five of them, however, could be Divinely protected, since I would use that Miracle there obviously, as those people are most exposed. So, the one fellow is doomed, one death, no contest. And then the rest of the battle proceeded as usual. Not a huge difference, but technically not one that should have happened, because technically pillaging without combat isn't a thing, if we need to go that far back. Only because I was in a good mood and that action wouldn't harm my agenda did I allow it.

Furthermore, what was going on in your update? Eight kills with 26 followers is far outside the norm, even accounting for Gal'Duls.

Six followers means 3 pass the ditch, a .3 chance of a wound, a 1/4th chance of a kill. I'm not sure how you're working your numbers?

But I'd rather not argue. You're a valuable addition to this RP, and I'd prefer if this wasn't an issue.

[The Inritus Extraho]

Except, again, there wasn't a ditch to cross, G-Tech.
There wasn't a 5/12 DP save.
And it wasn't exactly.

Jesus, I guess three people teaming up can't kill you. Well, GG then, I guess.

Also, if we're playing by averages, I'm going to throw six guys at you every turn. Hey look, one guaranteed kill! It's statistically the most likely, after all!

Let's say, for a moment, there wasn't a ditch to cross under one of the huts. That means six of my followers don't benefit from that protection. Five of them, however, could be Divinely protected, since I would use that Miracle there obviously, as those people are most exposed. So, the one fellow is doomed, one death, no contest. And then the rest of the battle proceeded as usual. Not a huge difference, but technically not one that should have happened, because technically pillaging without combat isn't a thing, if we need to go that far back. Only because I was in a good mood and that action wouldn't harm my agenda did I allow it.

Furthermore, what was going on in your update? Eight kills with 26 followers is far outside the norm, even accounting for Gal'Duls.

Six followers means 3 pass the ditch, a .3 chance of a wound, a 1/4th chance of a kill. I'm not sure how you're working your numbers?

But I'd rather not argue. You're a valuable addition to this RP, and I'd prefer if this wasn't an issue.

So your other six guys would sit there and laugh at the guy who died? Very well.

I have no idea. I used this roller which I use on everything else because it's fair. Statistics isn't average, we just spent two months beating that through the skulls of my class. Also, I edited my previous response.

I'm a valuable addition? Sure doesn't seem like it. Seems like the only addition should be more of Maerios, because he who is holy shalt live, and three people can't bring him down. Not to mention that conversion while you're invulnerable is more broken than faith-cycling with Malady (because it's easier to win than combat and it gives you extra people and, oh wait, you're immune to combat). This is fucking ridiculous. Kick me if you want, or I'll just wait for Maerios to annex the entire world in a few turns. Because by the averages he can win in two turns per settlement. No save, do not pass go.

[G-Tech Corporation]

Let's say, for a moment, there wasn't a ditch to cross under one of the huts. That means six of my followers don't benefit from that protection. Five of them, however, could be Divinely protected, since I would use that Miracle there obviously, as those people are most exposed. So, the one fellow is doomed, one death, no contest. And then the rest of the battle proceeded as usual. Not a huge difference, but technically not one that should have happened, because technically pillaging without combat isn't a thing, if we need to go that far back. Only because I was in a good mood and that action wouldn't harm my agenda did I allow it.

Furthermore, what was going on in your update? Eight kills with 26 followers is far outside the norm, even accounting for Gal'Duls.

Six followers means 3 pass the ditch, a .3 chance of a wound, a 1/4th chance of a kill. I'm not sure how you're working your numbers?

But I'd rather not argue. You're a valuable addition to this RP, and I'd prefer if this wasn't an issue.

So your other six guys would sit there and laugh at the guy who died? Very well.

I have no idea. I used this roller which I use on everything else because it's fair. Statistics isn't average, we just spent two months beating that through the skulls of my class. Also, I edited my previous response.

I'm a valuable addition? Sure doesn't seem like it. Seems like the only addition should be more of Maerios, because he who is holy shalt live, and three people can't bring him down. Not to mention that conversion while you're invulnerable is more broken than faith-cycling with Malady (because it's easier to win than combat and it gives you extra people and, oh wait, you're immune to combat). This is fucking ridiculous. Kick me if you want, or I'll just wait for Maerios to annex the entire world in a few turns. Because by the averages he can win in two turns per settlement. No save, do not pass go.

Given they can't intervene? They'd just have to deal with it.

Statistics isn't average; it's results are though. If I flip one thousand coins one thousand times, you can be sure that I'll get fairly close to half of my results as heads and half as tails; in the same manner, if ten thousands Followers try to convert ten thousand enemies, I can bet that a thousand enemies will be converted, more or less.

I use random.org, personally. I'm not sure how you draw that conclusion. If I sent all my followers against a ditched village, seven would make it in, with a potential conversion of about one. At that rate, it would take at least fifty turns to convert everyone, under optimal circumstances.

[G-Tech Corporation]

Also, if you really wanted to hinder me, smithing my buildings into ruins would have been more effective.

Though I admit being irritated that I was forced to squander Faith. I had a plan for that.

[The Inritus Extraho]

So your other six guys would sit there and laugh at the guy who died? Very well.

I have no idea. I used this roller which I use on everything else because it's fair. Statistics isn't average, we just spent two months beating that through the skulls of my class. Also, I edited my previous response.

I'm a valuable addition? Sure doesn't seem like it. Seems like the only addition should be more of Maerios, because he who is holy shalt live, and three people can't bring him down. Not to mention that conversion while you're invulnerable is more broken than faith-cycling with Malady (because it's easier to win than combat and it gives you extra people and, oh wait, you're immune to combat). This is fucking ridiculous. Kick me if you want, or I'll just wait for Maerios to annex the entire world in a few turns. Because by the averages he can win in two turns per settlement. No save, do not pass go.

Given they can't intervene? They'd just have to deal with it.

Statistics isn't average; it's results are though. If I flip one thousand coins one thousand times, you can be sure that I'll get fairly close to half of my results as heads and half as tails; in the same manner, if ten thousands Followers try to convert ten thousand enemies, I can bet that a thousand enemies will be converted, more or less.

I use random.org, personally. I'm not sure how you draw that conclusion. If I sent all my followers against a ditched village, seven would make it in, with a potential conversion of about one. At that rate, it would take at least fifty turns to convert everyone, under optimal circumstances.

Yeah, and one post doesn't have anywhere near enough to draw a sample size, your n is too small. One thousand, yes. Twenty-five? No. We use 30 in stats class, and that's usually too small. And you've got exponential growth. And you've got people who aren't in ditches. Or you convert them at the site of a battle. On and on.

Goddamnit. That was fucking ridiculous. Spent three days planning that, and one action blam nevermind. I'm taking a break from this for a long time, if I can hold true to my word.

AND TOO GODDAMN BAD ABOUT YOUR 300 FAITH
WE SPENT 1000 AND THREE DAYS TO MAKE THAT WORK, and got ONE hit. ONE.
HAVE FUN WITH YOUR GODDAMN OP CONVERSION MECHANICS AND JUST SAY NO BUTTONS.

[The Inritus Extraho]

You also broke your own priority rules.
Oh, and skipped part of Jack's post.
Should have read closer and not just skipped over it assuming it was a full-attack.

[Shaggai]

I have an idea. How about someone (or possibly both of you) creates a new update, with everything clarified, so that we nobody has to argue? Because I don't want to post until I know what happened.

[G-Tech Corporation]

Given they can't intervene? They'd just have to deal with it.

Statistics isn't average; it's results are though. If I flip one thousand coins one thousand times, you can be sure that I'll get fairly close to half of my results as heads and half as tails; in the same manner, if ten thousands Followers try to convert ten thousand enemies, I can bet that a thousand enemies will be converted, more or less.

I use random.org, personally. I'm not sure how you draw that conclusion. If I sent all my followers against a ditched village, seven would make it in, with a potential conversion of about one. At that rate, it would take at least fifty turns to convert everyone, under optimal circumstances.

Yeah, and one post doesn't have anywhere near enough to draw a sample size, your n is too small. One thousand, yes. Twenty-five? No. We use 30 in stats class, and that's usually too small. And you've got exponential growth. And you've got people who aren't in ditches. Or you convert them at the site of a battle. On and on.

Goddamnit. That was fucking ridiculous. Spent three days planning that, and one action blam nevermind. I'm taking a break from this for a long time, if I can hold true to my word.

AND TOO GODDAMN BAD ABOUT YOUR 300 FAITH
WE SPENT 1000 AND THREE DAYS TO MAKE THAT WORK, and got ONE hit. ONE.
HAVE FUN WITH YOUR GODDAMN OP CONVERSION MECHANICS AND JUST SAY NO BUTTONS.

True about the sample size. All the same, if I pull twenty five random points from a set of ten thousand, the chances are quite good that the overall results will be duplicated. Can I extrapolate a trend for ten thousand instances from twenty five results? Nope, that would be silly. Can I guess at the likely value of thirty points based on ten thousand instances? You betcha. And you're right, there are variable factors, but that was a generalization.

That is your choice. Feel free to continue to post at your own discretion.

Hmm. Can't find that one on my keyboard

You also broke your own priority rules.
Oh, and skipped part of Jack's post.
Should have read closer and not just skipped over it assuming it was a full-attack.

Priority rules?

Hmm. You're right. I'll fix that when I get home.

[The Inritus Extraho]

Yeah, and one post doesn't have anywhere near enough to draw a sample size, your n is too small. One thousand, yes. Twenty-five? No. We use 30 in stats class, and that's usually too small. And you've got exponential growth. And you've got people who aren't in ditches. Or you convert them at the site of a battle. On and on.

Goddamnit. That was fucking ridiculous. Spent three days planning that, and one action blam nevermind. I'm taking a break from this for a long time, if I can hold true to my word.

AND TOO GODDAMN BAD ABOUT YOUR 300 FAITH
WE SPENT 1000 AND THREE DAYS TO MAKE THAT WORK, and got ONE hit. ONE.
HAVE FUN WITH YOUR GODDAMN OP CONVERSION MECHANICS AND JUST SAY NO BUTTONS.

True about the sample size. All the same, if I pull twenty five random points from a set of ten thousand, the chances are quite good that the overall results will be duplicated. Can I extrapolate a trend for ten thousand instances from twenty five results? Nope, that would be silly. Can I guess at the likely value of thirty points based on ten thousand instances? You betcha. And you're right, there are variable factors, but that was a generalization.

That is your choice. Feel free to continue to post at your own discretion.

Hmm. Can't find that one on my keyboard

You also broke your own priority rules.
Oh, and skipped part of Jack's post.
Should have read closer and not just skipped over it assuming it was a full-attack.

Priority rules?

Hmm. You're right. I'll fix that when I get home.

Yeah, because your agrarians wouldn't be saved.

Oh, I think it's called "Divine Protection", or maybe it's the "Overwrite old update"?

And no, you can't make that assumption of 25 based off of 10,000. That's too small of a sample size, you won't get the right distribution. Like I said, n=30 or possibly larger.

[G-Tech Corporation]

I have an idea. How about someone (or possibly both of you) creates a new update, with everything clarified, so that we nobody has to argue? Because I don't want to post until I know what happened.

I have been updating the Week post as we discuss this, to aptly reflect our conclusions. Your part is accurate, unless I miss my guess.

[G-Tech Corporation]

True about the sample size. All the same, if I pull twenty five random points from a set of ten thousand, the chances are quite good that the overall results will be duplicated. Can I extrapolate a trend for ten thousand instances from twenty five results? Nope, that would be silly. Can I guess at the likely value of thirty points based on ten thousand instances? You betcha. And you're right, there are variable factors, but that was a generalization.

That is your choice. Feel free to continue to post at your own discretion.

Hmm. Can't find that one on my keyboard



Priority rules?

Hmm. You're right. I'll fix that when I get home.

Yeah, because your agrarians wouldn't be saved.

Oh, I think it's called "Divine Protection", or maybe it's the "Overwrite old update"?

And no, you can't make that assumption of 25 based off of 10,000. That's too small of a sample size, you won't get the right distribution. Like I said, n=30 or possibly larger.

Unless I missed something, combat and conversions are resolved after player actions.

That was inadvertent. I'll be fixing that as time becomes available.

It wasn't a perfect distribution, as I noted. It still isn't anywhere near a standard deviation outside the expected result.

[Ralnis]

Come on, can't we all just get along?

[G-Tech Corporation]

Come on, can't we all just get along?

Clearly I shouldn't have made conversions and combat a thing

Hence making defenses OP was a good idea. I have great hopes for a shared world explored by the Champions and shaped by the Divines.

[Alleniana]

:/

maybe people will forget to attack me if they are fighting their own wars

[G-Tech Corporation]

:/

maybe people will forget to attack me if they are fighting their own wars

It's worked so far. Recently, at any rate.

You know everyone. You should invite more champions.

[Alleniana]

:/

maybe people will forget to attack me if they are fighting their own wars

It's worked so far. Recently, at any rate.

You know everyone. You should invite more champions.

Do I?
I'll advertise the link on Historical RP Group. Off topic, but eh, it's always offtopic.

[Ralnis]

:/

maybe people will forget to attack me if they are fighting their own wars

That is the plan, all the aggressive gods fight for supremacy and I usually wonder off and find some new regions.

[G-Tech Corporation]

It's worked so far. Recently, at any rate.

You know everyone. You should invite more champions.

Do I?
I'll advertise the link on Historical RP Group. Off topic, but eh, it's always offtopic.

Close enough. Post speed is a great indicator of connections

That thread has a topic?

What.

[Alleniana]

Do I?
I'll advertise the link on Historical RP Group. Off topic, but eh, it's always offtopic.

Close enough. Post speed is a great indicator of connections

That thread has a topic?

What.

Yes
>.>
You've posted on it before

[G-Tech Corporation]

Close enough. Post speed is a great indicator of connections

That thread has a topic?

What.

Yes
>.>
You've posted on it before

I jest, I jest. A nod for Champions would be great.