Stephen Bute -21 February 2019
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WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO CONFRONT OUR OWN POPULIST PAST
Queenson's, Vimont's, and FitzClearance's recent trip to Etruria is alarming.
Ashcombe, Estmere - It is almost as if ghosts of politics past have appeared mysteriously in Etruria. Many in Estmere have expressed their shock that a number of Estmere First's former top brass have gone to visit Etruria. The arrival of these long unseen spectres in Solaris comes at the invitation of the ruling Tribune Movement. The three ghosts are: former Flurian Governor Maximilien FitzClarence, former Justice Secretary Alexander Queenson, and former mayor of Warminster Renée Vimont. They are attending a larger event to restore the sovereignty of nations, something Etrurian Foreign Minister Gianfranco Galizia believes has been taken from international institutions and the global elite.
This came as no surprise to me. What many in Estmere, or perhaps I should more accurately say Ashcombe and its suburban counties, viewed with shock and awe is in fact hardly shocking. Estmere First is well and alive still. The party is the fourth largest in the Lesser House and in the rural regions of the country remains vibrant, operating at all levels of devolved governance. Many voters, disillusioned with the return of the Federal Appeal alliance and political elites centered around Ashcombe, long for the party's return.
Outside of the Metropolitan Counties, the reputation of the defeated and in many ways disgraced party is much kinder. Throughout Wealdland, the distaste for the populist movement is much stronger than it is in its twin republic. This is reflected in both the number of Wealdish seats and the vote-share Estmere First received in the 2016 election. While the party's appeal to the working class once resonated with many in Estmere's industrial heartland, support has steadily dropped since the Avery Government was ousted in the 2012 election. In the 2016 election the party eked out 11% of all votes cast and won just four of the constituencies. This is down substantially from the 2008 election when the party received 29% of all votes cast and captured twenty three seats. While the party was never at its strongest in Wealdland, it was once robust and influential.
In Flurland, the case was - and still is - very different. In the 2006 devolved elections, the face of Estmere First, Maximilien FitzClarence, was elected to serve as governor. This was the first major office won by EF. The party also swept into the Flurian General Assembly. While it short of a majority, it managed to become the largest party. The party's success was fueled by the discontent many in Flurland, specifically its rural counties, felt for then Prime Minister Albert Read, Ashcombe, and the Euclean Community. The 2005 Recession and Estmere's slow response to the crisis angered many in Flurland, who faced rising prices and a stagnant economy. The success of EF in the the Flurian elections in 2006 was replicated two years later in the 2008 general election. The party was catapulted by the decision of Sandford & Poole's decision to downgrade Estmere's credit rating from AAA to AA. The Avery brothers led the party at a national level, but FitzClarence remained incredibly influential as Governor of Flurland. He played a significant role in the party's special form of nationalism.
FitzClarence cared little for Wealdland, and was very public about his perception of Flurland's twin republic. He has spoken very negatively of the Swathish, calling them "dirty" and "lazy" on multiple occasions. "They drink from the breast of the state as if it is the breast of their mother. You have long grown now, my Swathish friends. Suck from the state no more. Earn your own living, for that is the Estmerish way". His distaste for the Swathish extended to the Weranians at large, once stating that they were "socialist, monarchist swine with a specialty in historical revisionism".
"It is Gaullica, not Werania, who has influenced our culture the most. The dominate tongue in this land is directly descended from the Flurian tongue, which is in and of itself descended from Gaullican. Every chapter of our nation's history is dominated by the Flurians, proud individuals who drove the Weranians north after conquering Hennehouwe. Proud individuals who later drove the Gaullicans south during the Great War. These are Flurian, no these are Estmerish, accomplishments - not Weranian ones" he remarked at a 2011 celebration marking the birth of Richard Harcourt.
Further speaking on the Great War, FitzClarence once infamously declared that High Warden Michel Dumaresq, a functionalist collaborator who staged a mutiny during the government's messy withdrawal from Ashcombe, was a "hero for refusing to surrender his country to the Weranians".
I include these quotes from FitzClarence to remind many of the university educated, middle class readers of this paper of what he was said. The FitzClarence of today is still that FitzClarence. Just because he is barred from public office does not mean he is gone. It does not mean he is no longer influential. It does not mean he is no longer a threat.
It was through controversial statements such as those listed above that FitzClarence shaped the new nationalism put forth by Estmere First. No longer was the country happily multi-cultural, celebrating the three distinct ethno-linguistic groups that dominate it. Instead, there was one identity - and that identity was rooted in his own Flurian identity. He was tapping into something felt by many throughout Flurland. As I spoke to many voters in the rural counties before the 2008 election, I discovered that many felt isolated and left-behind in their own way.
"Ashcombe cares for little but itself" one elderly woman, who claimed to never have missed an election, told me. "It promotes a life that does not exist here". She later told me that she was once a loyal member of the National Union Party, but felt abandoned by Read who "cared more for pacifying the global elites than he did taking care of his own people".
This was when I recognized that Federal Appeal was doomed going into that election. Many political commentators and academics failed to see it. This is not because they did not want to, but they could not want to. The Estmere many of them thought existed, the one that did exist in Ashcombe and the Metropolitan Counties, was limited. Beyond the Pale, many were tired of politics as usual. They felt betrayed by the Euclean Community, the organization their country worked so hard to create. The 2010 referendum on leaving the Euclozone was the culmination of this sentiment and while it failed, the EC remains unpopular in the Flurian heartland.
Following the 2016 election I again felt compelled to visit the rural counties of Flurland. I found that the situation was largely unchanged. Many in Flurland continue to feel left behind and some remain resentful. Voter turnout in Flurland has dropped in all elections since 2012 when Estmere First was defeated at a federal level. The Progressives, who led a fierce campaign under Agatha Sharpe managed to oust William Avery. It was then that Sharpe decided to ensure Estmere First could never rise again. Much to the dismay of her junior partner in the coalition, the NUP, the government investigated all of the scandals of the EF era. William Avery was indicated and eventually convicted of sexually assaulting a number of students during his tenure as a headmaster, a truly shocking revelation for much of the nation but one that many of his supporters refused to accept. His younger brother, Philip Avery, was also indicated and likewise convicted for his role in a scheme to seek political retribution against President Walter Eaton and Ashcombe Mayor Mary Stone. A number of senior EF government and party officials were indicated for various crimes, ranging from corruption to drink driving. Each and every indictment was polarizing, especially in Flurland, but they were also crippling for the party. A base in rural Flurland was unsustainable, and the indictments saw support for EF evaporate in the Metropolitan Counties.
Perhaps the final nail in Estmere First's perceived coffin was the decision of the Justice Secretariat to charge FitzClarence with hate speech against the Swathish. This was particularly polarizing. Despite his controversy, he remained popular in Flurland. He swept the 2010 governor's race and easily won re-election, in the same year Estmere First failed to win both the presidential election and the Euclozone referendum. Yet, FitzClarence was ultimately forced out of office after he was found guilty of hate speech. He was replaced by the Speaker of the Flurian General Assembly, Mark Bern - a member of the NUP. Speaking to voters today throughout Flurland, this is what caused member of them to exit the system. "I will never vote again" one voter told me in a small village in Iwade. Another from an even smaller hamlet in Lythe said he would only consider voting "if FitzClarence were on the ballot".
The campaign spearheaded by Sharpe was successful, but at what cost? Yes, Estmere First has been effectively dismantled. It is at its weakest point yet. Support for it has dropped substantially at all levels of government. However, the actions of Sharpe's Justice Secretariat have driven a considerable number of voters out of our nation's democratic system. That exit is unhealthy for our democracy and ultimately it is unsustainable. The current government must consider adopting policies that would appeal to or otherwise bring many of these voters back into the system.
Yet, despite Sharpe's successful efforts, these ghosts have still reappeared. The three hope to reinvigorate the nationalist movement in Estmere. They have been silent on their plans for the future, but the fact that they are once again planning is concerning. Even though FitzClarence himself is barred from public office, his political tact must not be underestimated. He remains very popular in the Flurian heartland, something many in Ashcombe seem to forget. I would advise Prime Minister Richardson, who spends little time outside of Ashcombe, the visit the rural counties of Flurland. The republic is home to the majority of his party's base and should not be ignored. If he continues to do so, and continues to ignore the sentiments of the Flurian voter, the 2020 election could take him, and most of us, by surprise.
Written by Stephen Bute, he has been a assistant professor of political science at the University of Saint Filbert since 1995 and is the author of numerous books and analyses of Estmerish and Euclean politics, focusing on nationalism and right-wing politics. His most recent book
Heartland: A Journey Through the Center of Estmerish Populism focuses on his experience touring the rural counties in Flurland, the epicenter of support for Estmere First.
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