NS Military Realism Consultation Thread Vol. 11.0

[Gallia-]

Now that got me thinking on what Sun Tzu quotes that i could use for missile age warfare ?

Copy the well field system but make it missile field system instead.

8 privately nuclear missile silos for every state-owned Peacekeeper or (even better cos 40 RVs) Titan ICBM silo.

Sun Tzu may have said "Stay strapped or get clapped," but Mengzi said "My idea of a perfect government is a guy in a room and he's only allowed to decide who to nuke."

Big facts.

[Immoren]

It's a deepity.

And to be perfectly honest I imagine the man would be proud of it being used as such, especially by those that do not recognize it. Right along side the last one that basically goes "the army with the better plan wins".
Like seriously. You can't not think that the guy was trolling just a bit.

Assuming he ever existed.

[Gallia-]

Well, someone wrote it 20 years ago on the Internet, but who knows who?

Maybe Dtn can find the actual Myspace account responsible for the quote. o:

[Austrasien]

Ah, that makes sense. On the subject of light infantry currently having an advantage over tanks due to better sensors allowing the targeting of tanks with precision fires and aircraft, why not cut out the middle man and target using drones or something?

They do not have an advantage in all circumstances. Infantry with modern ATGMs has a significant advantage in open terrain where they can standoff and snipe tanks with very little risk to themselves. Close the distance enough that the tanks and their accompanying infantry can see them without special difficulty and most of their advantage disappears. Close the distance enough the ATGMs minimum range becomes significant and they are at a disadvantage.

There has been an inversion of sorts in the last decade roughly speaking. Big mechanized sweeps across open terrain are out. Mechanized streetfighting is in.

If light infantry have such an advantage, what are the next steps for offensive action against them (stealth tanks? Robot swarms? Just attack the gaps?)? How do you invade a country who has dug in infantry with ATGMs and supported by dug in artillery? Would light infantry units end up making up the bulk of the army, like what proportions are we talking about here?

Same way everything is done in reality these days: Strike from the sky. Mechanized-UAV cooperation is in its infancy but will be very important in the future. Long endurance UAVs with Hellfires (or similar munitions) are an extremely potent mix. In the future UAV overwatch will provide ground maneuver forces the "breathing space" they need to actually move without being constantly hammered by long range precision guided munitions from hostile infantry/artillery - these will still be a factor but the defenders freedom of action will be greatly constrained by the ever-present need to avoid eating a Hellfire.

[Triplebaconation]

And to be perfectly honest I imagine the man would be proud of it being used as such, especially by those that do not recognize it. Right along side the last one that basically goes "the army with the better plan wins".
Like seriously. You can't not think that the guy was trolling just a bit.

It seems simplistic because it's not in context. Is the book telling you to make good plans or encourage deep thonk about how to formulate them and risk assessment?

My point isn't that The Art of War is overrated, it's that fetishizing it as a key to unlock the ancient inscrutable secrets of the mystic East is silly and dangerous. (Note how we call it The Art of War instead of Master Sun's Military Methods.)

Put sit in your temple making calculations (risk assessment) together with win without fighting (conflict avoidance) and you get things like "really, it just comes down to two strategies at the moment that the PRC favors: Hit peripheral targets, and use measures short of war. Also, don't go to war unless doing so is extremely low risk."

There are several problems with this.

1) It's unclear how much of this is Sun Tzu and how much is just a Fu Manchu stereotype of the scheming Asian.

2) The world is much more complex than in Sun Tzu's time. People are bad at evaluating simple risks, much worse at complex risk. We can't count on China to evaluate risk correctly just because they've read Sun Tzu.

3) We have generals sitting in temples like the Pentagon making calculations all the time. We know that in open societies these calculations are not only often wrong, they're routinely ignored or manipulated by decision-makers who are making their own calculations for their own goals. We can only glimpse the political machinations of a closed society through a scanner darkly.

4) Winning without fighting is a very popular idea from Sun Tzu. Very profound! But in Chinese and the historical context this quote isn't necessarily endorsing "non-violent conflict resolution" or "measures short of war", it's advising sudden shocking violence. Mao's interpretation of this is probably more important to modern Chinese strategy than that of a USNI writer but he's too boring to read!

The last thing I'll say about Sun Tzu is that of course he was very popular in the 80s with American executives seeking to understand their Japanese competition. It didn't stop them from building the Ford Tempo.

[Hrstrovokia]

If light infantry have such an advantage, what are the next steps for offensive action against them (stealth tanks? Robot swarms? Just attack the gaps?)? How do you invade a country who has dug in infantry with ATGMs and supported by dug in artillery? Would light infantry units end up making up the bulk of the army, like what proportions are we talking about here?

MLRS strike - Russia's "Smerch" 9K58 has a max range of 90km, I think China has A300 supposedly max range of 290km, both are 300mm projectiles with a range of cluster munitions or HE, of course there's questions on how accurate they are. Not every country will be able to invest in UAV capable of strike but MLRS along the lines of Soviet/post-Soviet is achievable.

Even SRBM attacks using something Iskander-M on specific points and then pour armoured/mech inf through that point. Especially thermobaric weapons. There won't be a lot the rest of that light infantry can do once the line is breached and the battle is carried to the interior.

[Purpelia]

It seems simplistic because it's not in context. Is the book telling you to make good plans or encourage deep thonk about how to formulate them and risk assessment?

My point isn't that The Art of War is overrated, it's that fetishizing it as a key to unlock the ancient inscrutable secrets of the mystic East is silly and dangerous. (Note how we call it The Art of War instead of Master Sun's Military Methods.)

You should really consider my theory that the book is a troll written by a guy that knew about warfare and wanted to screw with future generations.

[Almadaria]

It seems simplistic because it's not in context. Is the book telling you to make good plans or encourage deep thonk about how to formulate them and risk assessment?

My point isn't that The Art of War is overrated, it's that fetishizing it as a key to unlock the ancient inscrutable secrets of the mystic East is silly and dangerous. (Note how we call it The Art of War instead of Master Sun's Military Methods.)

You should really consider my theory that the book is a troll written by a guy that knew about warfare and wanted to screw with future generations.

If you are correct, then he is more powerful than originally suspected.

[Manokan Republic]

Sun Tzu's work is full of easily memorable phrases and emphasizes that war is a social conflict, focusing more on strategies and tactics rather than equipment or resources, which is why it has persisted through the ages, and manuals on the different types of halberds don't really have the staying power that time-tested strategies do in modern warfare.

But his mention of the use of incendiary weapons is comparable to artillery, be it rocket artillery or what have you. Missile batteries are best used in concert with existing forces who effectively serve as scouts for the enemy, and then bombard them. Your goal is not to carpet bomb an entire city but find the enemy's hide out specifically and bomb it. This makes better use of your finite resources, as you likely lack the use of infinite missiles. Basically any time your men get shot at, or find an enemy soldier, you call in artillery of all kinds. Missile artillery has a longer range and heavier payload than artillery, making them more useful for protecting a wider area and requires less of them in any given area for the same level of protection with their overlapping fields of fire, or allows for more concentrated fire in a single area. With a range of 300 miles, 20 missile systems can all engage the same target, where as you could maybe engage it with one artillery piece with a range of 20 miles, and so on. This can increase firepower relative to the number of artillery systems in the field, hence why such artillery is so useful.

Infantry are not engaged in combat 24/7, and so when a group of infantry stumbles upon another group of enemies and they start fighting, it may only compromise a small percentage of your forces in the field. Then, you can use a single artillery piece to protect multiple groups of men as your men are only engaged in combat a certain percentage of the time, but as the overlapping field of fire may be quite smol, artillery can only protect so many groups of people in a given time frame as it has to be within close vicinity. Missile batteries or ultra long range artillery can protect men even if they are 200 miles away, so you get better protection for more men, and then on top of this all your artillery pieces in a given area can support your men, so if you needed, your one platoon of infantry under attack could call in 20 missile batteries to help them, vs. just one or two artillery pieces under normal conditions. A longer range is a massive strategic advantage for artillery.

[Gallia-]

watch how ONE BATTALION COMMANDER defeats the ENTIRE MAHDI ARMY by OBLITERATING THE ENTIRETY OF DOWNTOWN BAGHDAD with NUCLEAR ICBMs

sadr city gone wild (gone nuclear) MUST WATCH

[Kassaran]

Clickbait ads get me every time, just because I wanna see how bad it actually is written...

Also, how do ads for your individual militaries bring in more recruits? I remember specifically seeing a lot of that stuff a while ago and not so much anymore. I really enjoyed seeing the difference in approaches they all had, though I guess a lot of people on NS use conscript armies so you don't need a lot of professional advertisements.

[Manokan Republic]

watch how ONE BATTALION COMMANDER defeats the ENTIRE MAHDI ARMY by OBLITERATING THE ENTIRETY OF DOWNTOWN BAGHDAD with NUCLEAR ICBMs

sadr city gone wild (gone nuclear) MUST WATCH

Nuclear weapons are a meme, they've only been used in one conflict like two times and like they're pretty gay anyways since it can lead to global nuclear war and radioactive fall-out etc.

Kinetic bombardment is where it's at, no fall-out, very powerful but more concentrated, good at penetrating bunkers/tanks etc. and so on and so forth. They also scale easily, and you can go so far as to wipe out half a city or just blow up a tank, with a really smol one. You put like 10,000 in space with some aiming systems and missiles for guidance and you could drop them on enemy armored forces from space and wipe our their entire armored forces in like a day, and there'd be like no defense to them.

[Manokan Republic]

Clickbait ads get me every time, just because I wanna see how bad it actually is written...

Also, how do ads for your individual militaries bring in more recruits? I remember specifically seeing a lot of that stuff a while ago and not so much anymore. I really enjoyed seeing the difference in approaches they all had, though I guess a lot of people on NS use conscript armies so you don't need a lot of professional advertisements.

Well in my society I try to encourage a pro-military culture, where every able bodied person is forced to serve, so sort of the entire culture is the recruiting platform, but advertisements about benefits can help, or the importance of the cause, and multiple types of advertising work best, with some being generic advertisements like corporate advertisements, and some being more specific.

Advertising to certain audiences, such as on the military or military history channel, or to video game players might get a higher recruitment percentage, as they would like to join. You can more subtle things like military parades or, have the military do a salute or something at a major cultural event, like a football game, to increase their presence in the general social conscience. Everyone is like "support the troops!" at a football game and as a kid you go, hmm, the military is interesting, maybe I should join when I grow up etc. Targeting certain audiences can help, as well as broad audiences. I tend to think "appealing to the youth" advertisements backfire though, so if you try to do a pepsi add like with Kylie Jenner, it can do the opposite. You want to be as overt as possible, so people don't think it's a sekrit brainwashing program or the like.

[Gallia-]

Clickbait ads get me every time, just because I wanna see how bad it actually is written...

Also, how do ads for your individual militaries bring in more recruits?

By sending them a letter telling them to show up at the draft office.

There are a few posters I guess but they're rare outside of the draft/recruitment offices.

[Immoren]

Clickbait ads get me every time, just because I wanna see how bad it actually is written...

Also, how do ads for your individual militaries bring in more recruits? I remember specifically seeing a lot of that stuff a while ago and not so much anymore. I really enjoyed seeing the difference in approaches they all had, though I guess a lot of people on NS use conscript armies so you don't need a lot of professional advertisements.

Well conscripts are conscripted, so for that it's less advertising and more informatising.
But there are some special jobs that conscripts can volunteer an application for if before they've completed AIT for their field. So those are advertised slightly more "professionally".
Also There are still professional centralized advertising for cadet school. Ads for specialist officers and career non-commissioned officer vacancies are done, although probably less. And they're more on responsibility of individual regiments. As are ads for vacancies.
---
Actually is "regiment posts ad for career NCO vacancy in jobseekers' and/or their webpage" something that stops making sense once military gets large enough.

[Shanghai industrial complex]

And to be perfectly honest I imagine the man would be proud of it being used as such, especially by those that do not recognize it. Right along side the last one that basically goes "the army with the better plan wins".
Like seriously. You can't not think that the guy was trolling just a bit.

It seems simplistic because it's not in context. Is the book telling you to make good plans or encourage deep thonk about how to formulate them and risk assessment?

My point isn't that The Art of War is overrated, it's that fetishizing it as a key to unlock the ancient inscrutable secrets of the mystic East is silly and dangerous. (Note how we call it The Art of War instead of Master Sun's Military Methods.)

Put sit in your temple making calculations (risk assessment) together with win without fighting (conflict avoidance) and you get things like "really, it just comes down to two strategies at the moment that the PRC favors: Hit peripheral targets, and use measures short of war. Also, don't go to war unless doing so is extremely low risk."

There are several problems with this.

1) It's unclear how much of this is Sun Tzu and how much is just a Fu Manchu stereotype of the scheming Asian.

2) The world is much more complex than in Sun Tzu's time. People are bad at evaluating simple risks, much worse at complex risk. We can't count on China to evaluate risk correctly just because they've read Sun Tzu.

3) We have generals sitting in temples like the Pentagon making calculations all the time. We know that in open societies these calculations are not only often wrong, they're routinely ignored or manipulated by decision-makers who are making their own calculations for their own goals. We can only glimpse the political machinations of a closed society through a scanner darkly.

4) Winning without fighting is a very popular idea from Sun Tzu. Very profound! But in Chinese and the historical context this quote isn't necessarily endorsing "non-violent conflict resolution" or "measures short of war", it's advising sudden shocking violence. Mao's interpretation of this is probably more important to modern Chinese strategy than that of a USNI writer but he's too boring to read!

The last thing I'll say about Sun Tzu is that of course he was very popular in the 80s with American executives seeking to understand their Japanese competition. It didn't stop them from building the Ford Tempo.

Sun Tzu's art of war is equivalent to a demo of Chinese military thought.At that time, there were at least five influential books on war and many articles scattered in other books.Perhaps the reason why Sun Tzu's art of war is most influential is that it is the shortest and concise.

There are some influential ideas in these books .Sun Tzu is just part of one of the schools.

military school
1.Emphasis on winning hearts and minds 2.It advocated political attack and disintegration of the enemy,conduct psychological and political warfare 3.War is to win with wisdom and gain the greatest victory at the least cost
Mohist School
1.Oppose all unjust wars and support other countries in conducting defensive wars 2.Big countries do not invade small countries, there is no war between countries and peaceful coexistence
Taoist school
1.Wait for the other party to attack first, then seize the opportunity to counterattack and subdue the other party2.Limited use of force to achieve clear military objectives and prevent the abuse of force
Legalism school
1.make the country rich and will make its military force efficient2.Use law, not morality, to restrain the army.Use training and increase revenueto of soilder to improve military capability 3.Use the army to protect the state power

[Shanghai industrial complex]

It seems simplistic because it's not in context. Is the book telling you to make good plans or encourage deep thonk about how to formulate them and risk assessment?

My point isn't that The Art of War is overrated, it's that fetishizing it as a key to unlock the ancient inscrutable secrets of the mystic East is silly and dangerous. (Note how we call it The Art of War instead of Master Sun's Military Methods.)

You should really consider my theory that the book is a troll written by a guy that knew about warfare and wanted to screw with future generations.

So he may not come from 2500 years ago, but 2500 years later,accidentally went to ancient times?

[Shanghai industrial complex]

If light infantry have such an advantage, what are the next steps for offensive action against them (stealth tanks? Robot swarms? Just attack the gaps?)? How do you invade a country who has dug in infantry with ATGMs and supported by dug in artillery? Would light infantry units end up making up the bulk of the army, like what proportions are we talking about here?

MLRS strike - Russia's "Smerch" 9K58 has a max range of 90km, I think China has A300 supposedly max range of 290km, both are 300mm projectiles with a range of cluster munitions or HE, of course there's questions on how accurate they are. Not every country will be able to invest in UAV capable of strike but MLRS along the lines of Soviet/post-Soviet is achievable.

Even SRBM attacks using something Iskander-M on specific points and then pour armoured/mech inf through that point. Especially thermobaric weapons. There won't be a lot the rest of that light infantry can do once the line is breached and the battle is carried to the interior.

Seriously, I don't think the A300 is a rocket launcher, it's a cheap short-range missile.It must have been reduced fuel or increased configuration to make the range shorter.It has inertial guidance system and satellite guidance system.

[Austrasien]

Naive literal application of the maxims in the Art of War by amateurs was being riffed on in the Romance of Three Kingdoms. Which was written in the 14th century.

[Purpelia]

Naive literal application of the maxims in the Art of War by amateurs was being riffed on in the Romance of Three Kingdoms. Which was written in the 14th century.

Which makes me think that the guy just got sick of being asked for an abridged version of his wisdom so he wrote this all the while having a big grin on his face. For those in the know it's a nice reminder booklet. For everyone else its a web of deepeties to get stuck in.

[Velkanika]

Naive literal application of the maxims in the Art of War by amateurs was being riffed on in the Romance of Three Kingdoms. Which was written in the 14th century.

Which makes me think that the guy just got sick of being asked for an abridged version of his wisdom so he wrote this all the while having a big grin on his face. For those in the know it's a nice reminder booklet. For everyone else its a web of deepeties to get stuck in.

This. One of my dorm mates in my undergrad treated the Art of War as some kind of mystical guide to life. She also drank water out of a container that used to contain bleach before she diluted it into utter insignificance out of the belief that it purified her or some shit so there's that.

[Purpelia]

Which makes me think that the guy just got sick of being asked for an abridged version of his wisdom so he wrote this all the while having a big grin on his face. For those in the know it's a nice reminder booklet. For everyone else its a web of deepeties to get stuck in.

This. One of my dorm mates in my undergrad treated the Art of War as some kind of mystical guide to life. She also drank water out of a container that used to contain bleach before she diluted it into utter insignificance out of the belief that it purified her or some shit so there's that.

It also wouldn't be unusual for the cultural context he came from. Basically old Chinese masters liked writing down stuff in a way that looked like a manual but in was reality only worth as such to someone who already knows the art.
This can best be seen these days in Chinese martial arts. I once watched a video of a guy breaking down contemporary wushu forms* for their roots and he basically explained how each form is actually a set of distinct kata like assemblies all glued into one so that if you know what they are supposed to represent (and can cut out the thousands of years of twirling added on by people who didn't) the form makes for a good training tool. Otherwise it might as well be interpretative dance. And he was going like: this is a block, and this is the counter strike after that block, and this shows the form was originally for a spear. And once you look at them that way it suddenly all makes sense. And it is my understanding that the written manuals are pretty much the same.

* For those that don't know Chinese martial arts basically have forms which are long complicated combinations of moves that you are supposed to learn. And these basically serve like physical activity versions of manuals.

[Triplebaconation]

Sun Tzu's art of war is equivalent to a demo of Chinese military thought.At that time, there were at least five influential books on war and many articles scattered in other books.Perhaps the reason why Sun Tzu's art of war is most influential is that it is the shortest and concise.

There are some influential ideas in these books .Sun Tzu is just part of one of the schools. spoiler]military school
1.Emphasis on winning hearts and minds 2.It advocated political attack and disintegration of the enemy,conduct psychological and political warfare 3.War is to win with wisdom and gain the greatest victory at the least cost
Mohist School
1.Oppose all unjust wars and support other countries in conducting defensive wars 2.Big countries do not invade small countries, there is no war between countries and peaceful coexistence
Taoist school
1.Wait for the other party to attack first, then seize the opportunity to counterattack and subdue the other party2.Limited use of force to achieve clear military objectives and prevent the abuse of force
Legalism school
1.make the country rich and will make its military force efficient2.Use law, not morality, to restrain the army.Use training and increase revenueto of soilder to improve military capability 3.Use the army to protect the state power[/spoiler]

Yes, this is what I've been saying, and why reading an English translation of The Art of War doesn't give you much special insight into Chinese doctrine and especially grand strategy.

Mao for example was immersed in the entire Chinese classical corpus and also capable of original thought. That's why his military ideas are in broad agreement with Sun Tzu in some ways and entirely the opposite in others.

Deng Xiaoping, on the other hand, wasn't much of a classicist.

I suspect both Mao and Deng are far more important in current Chinese thought than James Clavell.

It also wouldn't be unusual for the cultural context he came from. Basically old Chinese masters liked writing down stuff in a way that looked like a manual but in was reality only worth as such to someone who already knows the art.

The art is largely how Chinese characters interact and the theory of wuxing, which a Chinese writer could assume his readers understood. A Chinese reader 2500 years ago had a mental map of concepts much different than a modern Westerner.

Another thing to consider is Orientalism. When someone buys a book of "ancient Chinese wisdom" they most likely want it to sound like a fortune cookie. A skilled translator might be able to fill in the cultural gaps and produce something more matter-of-fact, but it wouldn't be very popular.

[Shanghai industrial complex]

It also wouldn't be unusual for the cultural context he came from. Basically old Chinese masters liked writing down stuff in a way that looked like a manual but in was reality only worth as such to someone who already knows the art.

The reason why it writes like this may be because it is written on bamboo slips.After the invention of paper, ancient Chinese articles became significantly longer.

This. One of my dorm mates in my undergrad treated the Art of War as some kind of mystical guide to life. She also drank water out of a container that used to contain bleach before she diluted it into utter insignificance out of the belief that it purified her or some shit so there's that.

He may need to learn to write common sense for his health first.

Yes, this is what I've been saying, and why reading an English translation of The Art of War doesn't give you much special insight into Chinese doctrine and especially grand strategy.

Mao for example was immersed in the entire Chinese classical corpus and also capable of original thought. That's why his military ideas are in broad agreement with Sun Tzu in some ways and entirely the opposite in others.

Deng Xiaoping, on the other hand, wasn't much of a classicist.

I suspect both Mao and Deng are far more important in current Chinese thought than James Clavell.

You are right.Mao also was a learned classical writer, poet and philosopher.His views on these articles are very sharp and profound.Deng was probably more influenced by the military thoughts of Europe and the Soviet Union. He went to school in France and the Soviet Union.We sometimes find that Mao's views on some things still applicable now.

[Triplebaconation]

It also wouldn't be unusual for the cultural context he came from. Basically old Chinese masters liked writing down stuff in a way that looked like a manual but in was reality only worth as such to someone who already knows the art.

The reason why it writes like this may be because it is written on bamboo slips.After the invention of paper, ancient Chinese articles became significantly longer.

Even on bamboo they could go on a while. The Shiji is over 500,000 characters and probably weighed more than the author when it was finished.

Chinese histories written on paper like the Zizhi tongjian are absolutely enormous.