Connori Pilgrims wrote:None of the Eurofighter partners seem to want something like Tempest even if Brexit wasn't a factor; Italy is with the F-35 program and as you mentioned would be hard to get them to join this program as opposed to just buying more F-35s. The Germans puportedly have already signed on with Dassault for whatever their program will be. Spain is a probable, but yeah more than likely they'll just join with the Franco-German project instead.
Most of the EU will probably go with whatever the French and Germans cook up, indeed. They can promise workshare more easily and may well be pressing for EU-wide adoption as a means of strengthening the common EU defense infrastructure.
The comment mill on the article thinks Japan and Sweden as potential partners. Japan could be a possibility if only because they still want a fighter to presumably replace the F-15Js, for reasons of industrial sustainment (like what Britain apparently wants with this program), and there's some small precedent with the cooperation they're doing on the Meteor/AAM-4 techsharing (assuming that pushed through), although whether Japan is willing to merge the prospective F-3/Shinshin program with Tempest is another thing.
At least as things stand in the present, I think it's unlikely that Japan would agree to the terms the UK would be looking for. Mostly because Japan is unwilling to give up the sort of workshare that Britain would want to justify their own investment. The Japanese have a head start at this point anyway and don't seem to be very interested in squandering their lead. Not with China pushing ahead with its own fifth generation programs. Maybe they'll agree to some technology sharing and joint development of certain components, but I imagine the Japanese already have a fairly well-formed concept of what they want F-3 to be, and would rather not put up with British indecision throughout the process.
Of course, Japan's attitudes toward its defense industry have been changing rather significantly over the last decade, so who knows? But the ability to export F-3 on its own terms likely remains very attractive to the Japanese government and industry.
Sweden is even more unlikely, though that's because I'm unsure how serious they are about keeping Saab alive.
The Swedes don't really have anything to offer except some funding. Certainly nothing the UK doesn't already have in terms of industrial base.
Commonwealth project perhaps? Australia may want something like this to replace the Super Hornets and restore the long-range capability that the F-111 gave them (if Tempest is gonna be a long-range bird that is), and Canada might want this in lieu of going back to the F-35.
Is there room in the budget?
Even for cheaper programs, within the last few decades, Australia seems to be more interested in buying modified off the shelf solutions like Boxer and Shortfin Barracuda over bespoke systems like ye olde
Collins-class. The Canadians are in the same boat (no pun intended). The British might be able to rope them into a replacement program, but IIRC the Canadians are looking for aircraft in the more immediate timeframe, rather than after 2035.
But then again, it is also quite likely that this program will just die in favor of more F-35s if future British governments become weak-kneed/money-conscious again (especially if those Liberals or Greens win, heaven forbid)...
I think cancellation is the most likely outcome, but it is not a foregone conclusion. I'm sure the ministry has a clear-headed view of what a fight this will be, but whether they can sustain the willpower for a long enough time period is another question. And it will probably come at the expense of other projects, just like how F-35 gobbled up a lot of the procurement budgets for the US services.
Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:30 pm
