NS Military Realism Consultation Thread #6

[Roski]

There is absolutely no way the Japanese could have seriously contemplated an invasion of South America, nor any chance the United States would have let them if they could. It would have been practically the same as attacking Pearl Harbor. The US had left Japan largely alone because the American people weren't interested in getting involved in a war in Asia. If the Japanese started a war in South America, they'd be in America's backyard, and that wouldn't apply anymore. Monroe Doctrine and all. They'd be a direct threat to the Panama Canal.



No, the Japanese did not have the strength to take Hawaii.



And the Dutch and the Australians. Either way, the US would have likely supplied the Commonwealth with equipment, as they were already supplying the Chinese.

Could the US have supplied enough to the Commonwealth that it would have been a major problem? And could Japan have gotten a peace deal before Britain really had been able to get enough power to retaliate?

Likely to both of those questions.

[Korouse]

2. We also have a liquid defense, since that's probably the best option with a Mobile army

I think you mean fluid defence.

3. A guide to a well defended area: move around it.

Yeah, that is so basic it isn't even worth mentioning. A better thing to mention is how you break through defended areas if you cannot move around them?

5. One thing about the strategy is that you must always cover your flanks

Once again this isn't even doctrine, this is some Sun Tzu "point out the obvious and disguise it as wisdom" bullshit.

6. Targets can be logistical stuff, like I dunno, hospitals?

I don't understand why people always suggest shooting up hospitals and stupid shit. Even ignoring the fact that it does nothing useful (yep, that soldier with no legs that you finished off by bombing his hospital was totally slowing down your advance and wasn't consuming large manpower and resources relative to his useful output in the war effort). Plus it simply pisses off the population and makes the nation less likely to compromise.

Honestly if someone started bombed one of my hospitals I would take that as a cue that he has no limits on what to engage and target anything freely. Of course the blame would fall on enemy political leaders for allowing the initial strikes that result in us suspending engagement restrictions so every politician we capture would be tried and when found guilty shot for crimes against humanity.

Logistics is shit like transport trucks, or targeting infrastructure like roads, bridges, tunnels, or various supply and storage stations.

No need to be a dick. It's not a doctrine, it's just something I thought up lol.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

My hypothetical is predicated on them not doing that.

Also, that would be quitting while they were ahead.

Not necessarily. They had plenty of land in the Pacific to take, and if lucky enough to avoid America's wrath, could likely begin an invasion of South America.

They didn't have to stop. They just had to be more careful.

Now, had the actual plan at Pearl Harbour Succeeded, which would have been more luck than skill, the Japanese would have likely taken Hawaii before the US Pacific Fleet was powerful enough to respond.

Taken Hawaii with what? Literally the entire IJA down to the last regimental group was preoccupied with invading South East Asia and China. There was nothing which would've been available to make landfall on Oahu, not even a single company. You also fail to recognize that if Nagumo had been hobbled by 10-12 knot transports on his way to Hawaii he would've been running far, far, far, far greater risk in an operation the IJN expected to lose two carriers over, without transports.

[San-Silvacian]

My hypothetical is predicated on them not doing that.

Also, that would be quitting while they were ahead.

Not necessarily. They had plenty of land in the Pacific to take, and if lucky enough to avoid America's wrath, could likely begin an invasion of South America.

They didn't have to stop. They just had to be more careful.

Now, had the actual plan at Pearl Harbour Succeeded, which would have been more luck than skill, the Japanese would have likely taken Hawaii before the US Pacific Fleet was powerful enough to respond.

Then the USMC take Hawaii back in like 2 years.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Not necessarily. They had plenty of land in the Pacific to take, and if lucky enough to avoid America's wrath, could likely begin an invasion of South America.

They didn't have to stop. They just had to be more careful.

Now, had the actual plan at Pearl Harbour Succeeded, which would have been more luck than skill, the Japanese would have likely taken Hawaii before the US Pacific Fleet was powerful enough to respond.

Then the USMC take Hawaii back in like 2 years.

I give them two months with the crippling losses an amphibious assault on Oahu would've resulted in. And then it's pretty much game over because you squandered your strategic reserve of divisions that was supposed to be in Japan and your carrier forces.

[The Greater Luthorian Empire]

I think you mean fluid defence.

Yeah, that is so basic it isn't even worth mentioning. A better thing to mention is how you break through defended areas if you cannot move around them?

Once again this isn't even doctrine, this is some Sun Tzu "point out the obvious and disguise it as wisdom" bullshit.

I don't understand why people always suggest shooting up hospitals and stupid shit. Even ignoring the fact that it does nothing useful (yep, that soldier with no legs that you finished off by bombing his hospital was totally slowing down your advance and wasn't consuming large manpower and resources relative to his useful output in the war effort). Plus it simply pisses off the population and makes the nation less likely to compromise.

Honestly if someone started bombed one of my hospitals I would take that as a cue that he has no limits on what to engage and target anything freely. Of course the blame would fall on enemy political leaders for allowing the initial strikes that result in us suspending engagement restrictions so every politician we capture would be tried and when found guilty shot for crimes against humanity.

Logistics is shit like transport trucks, or targeting infrastructure like roads, bridges, tunnels, or various supply and storage stations.

No need to be a dick. It's not a doctrine, it's just something I thought up lol.

The only real issue was the hospital thing (plus I hate Sun Tzu's "point out the obvious and pass it off a profound wisdom" crap), NS seems to have a fetish for blowing up hospitals when in reality it is about as useful as blowing up an enemy school for children with cancer, they aren't going to contribute to the war effort, they consume relatively massive amounts of manpower and resources, and killing them just pisses people off.

[San-Silvacian]

Then the USMC take Hawaii back in like 2 years.

I give them two months with the crippling losses an amphibious assault on Oahu would've resulted in. And then it's pretty much game over because you squandered your strategic reserve of divisions and carrier forces.

Really the US garrison in Hawaii would have lal'd over any Japanese ground troops.

[Korouse]

No need to be a dick. It's not a doctrine, it's just something I thought up lol.

The only real issue was the hospital thing (plus I hate Sun Tzu's "point out the obvious and pass it off a profound wisdom" crap), NS seems to have a fetish for blowing up hospitals when in reality it is about as useful as blowing up an enemy school for children with cancer, they aren't going to contribute to the war effort, they consume relatively massive amounts of manpower and resources, and killing them just pisses people off.

Couldn't think of anything Logistical to blow up.

[The Akasha Colony]

Could the US have supplied enough to the Commonwealth that it would have been a major problem? And could Japan have gotten a peace deal before Britain really had been able to get enough power to retaliate?

Unlikely. The Japanese had made major inroads into the Commonwealth territories, but were never able to threaten Britain itself, for rather obvious reasons, and even without American assistance they got stonewalled in Southeast Asia overland, which prevented them from taking India. Their only option against Australia was to try to invade it, but this would have committed them to another huge overland campaign at a time when they were already stretched thin fighting campaigns in China, Burma, and Indonesia. They were unlikely to end up in the decisively advantageous position to allow them to actually dictate terms to the British, while the British could (and did) put the front on the backburner while dealing with Germany. It's another matter if we wonder what would happen if the US was never involved even on the European front.

The Japanese launched attacks in California. K.

And had they taken out the Carriers, like intended, the US Fleet would have been powerless for a while.

Japan wasn't a pushover. THey were very strong. It just so happened the Americans pulled a stroke of Luck at Midway, and got their asses handed to them.

Yes. A handful of submarine bombardments and some fire balloons. Truly terrifying, it is a wonder the United States ever triumphed against such odds.

Strangely enough, the Hawaiian Islands were not utterly helpless in the absence of the Pacific Fleet's carriers. Not only did they have a huge contingent of local aircraft, but also a very large garrison of ground troops at a time when the Japanese had already committed their troops to expanding their presence elsewhere in the Pacific. Attacking Hawaii could not be done without foregoing offensives in other areas, which would leave much larger threats (the Australians and the British) unattended. On top of this, it would have required diverting a very large body of invading troops to the very edge of the Japanese supply lines to attack a very well fortified target. Even then, it is doubtful the Japanese could have decisively prevailed; by the time of Midway, the Hawaiian Islands were covered in nearly as many pillboxes and miles of barbed wire as Britain, and garrisoned by at least two infantry divisions excluding Marines.

[Questers]

Midway was not about luck jesus christ. There goes Akasha posting some useful and correct information about one of the mosti mportant naval battles of all time, just for educational purposes, and then someone says it was about "luck."

Im getting really sick of all the bullshit being spermed all over the milthreads, tbh.

[The Tiger Kingdom]

The Japanese launched attacks in California. K.

Pointless, meaningless attacks that served no purpose whatsoever and were a total waste of time and valuable resources.

And had they taken out the Carriers, like intended, the US Fleet would have been powerless for a while.

For a little while. Not for long.
You could even argue that a more successful Pearl harbor would have resulted in the US strategy shifting to "Japan first" rather than "Germany first", with corresponding shifts in force distribution and industrial production priorities which could maybe even have made up the difference.

Japan wasn't a pushover. THey were very strong. It just so happened the Americans pulled a stroke of Luck at Midway, and got their asses handed to them.

The Americans didn't get their asses handed to them at Midway. That was the Japanese. This is a typo, I take it?
And no, it was not about luck, any more than any battle ever has been distinguished by luck. McCluskey found the Arashi after it depth-charged the Nautilus (thanks to the sub's report), and made the calculated assumption that the destroyer would return to the fleet after it lost the sub's track. It did. Hence the strike.

[Radictistan]

Shattered Sword lovingly details why the Americans won. It's a great book I would recommend to anyone interested in WW2.

[Questers]

im not going to be baited into flaming someone, so later im going to set up the poll and that will be my last post on any ns milrealism thread. these threads have gone down significantly in quality since i started using them because there's just no quality control. that's why there's so much stupid nonsense. I don't feel like these threads are fit for purpose any longer and I just get trolled by the amount of crap spammed on them on a regular basis. Anyone who wants to find me can do so on #nsmilitary.

[San-Silvacian]

The Russians won Kursk via luck.

[The Tiger Kingdom]

The Russians won Kursk via luck.

You actually could present a fairly convincing argument that the Germans won in France in 1940 due to luck. They sure as hell weren't planning for the BEF to freak the fuck out like they did and run for the Channel.

[Korouse]

im not going to be baited into flaming someone, so later im going to set up the poll and that will be my last post on any ns milrealism thread. these threads have gone down significantly in quality since i started using them because there's just no quality control. that's why there's so much stupid nonsense. I don't feel like these threads are fit for purpose any longer and I just get trolled by the amount of crap spammed on them on a regular basis. Anyone who wants to find me can do so on #nsmilitary.

what's #nsmilitary?

is it on twitter?

[Yukonastan]

im not going to be baited into flaming someone, so later im going to set up the poll and that will be my last post on any ns milrealism thread. these threads have gone down significantly in quality since i started using them because there's just no quality control. that's why there's so much stupid nonsense. I don't feel like these threads are fit for purpose any longer and I just get trolled by the amount of crap spammed on them on a regular basis. Anyone who wants to find me can do so on #nsmilitary.

what's #nsmilitary?

is it on twitter?

#NSMilitary on irc.esper.net.

IRC.

[San-Silvacian]

The Russians won Kursk via luck.

You actually could present a fairly convincing argument that the Germans won in France in 1940 due to luck. They sure as hell weren't planning for the BEF to freak the fuck out like they did and run for the Channel.

No they won because of a number of reasons.

One of the main reasons was a lack of public support in France b/c dat most losses of the Allied Powers in WW1

[United Marxist Nations]

So what could Japan have done to end the war in an advantageous position? I mean, if it could manage to survive the war, it would have basically been natural allies with the US during the Cold War.

[Allanea]

> t would have basically been natural allies with the US during the Cold War.
It was.

The only way Japan could have hypothetically won the war was if US morale had given out early somehow, allowing Japan to sign a treaty on favorable terms.

But once America was determined to fight a long war, Japan was doomed.

[San-Silvacian]

So what could Japan have done to end the war in an advantageous position? I mean, if it could manage to survive the war, it would have basically been natural allies with the US during the Cold War.

no it wouldn't have been around if it hadn't have fought the US lal.

The Russians would have invaded and made it the Glorious Soviet Union of Nippon~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

So what could Japan have done to end the war in an advantageous position? I mean, if it could manage to survive the war, it would have basically been natural allies with the US during the Cold War.

The way out was not to start the war. This was IJN's conclusion after a few studies pre-war. Obviously the IJA GHQ was way too prideful to back down from the head on collision.

[The Akasha Colony]

So what could Japan have done to end the war in an advantageous position? I mean, if it could manage to survive the war, it would have basically been natural allies with the US during the Cold War.

From what point, and with what objectives? TBH, the Japanese almost certainly did better in the long run after losing the war than they would have been if they had "won."

[Gallia-]

So what could Japan have done to end the war in an advantageous position? I mean, if it could manage to survive the war, it would have basically been natural allies with the US during the Cold War.

no it wouldn't have been around if it hadn't have fought the US lal.

The Russians would have invaded and made it the Glorious Soviet Union of Nippon~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Actually they would have littered the beaches of Hokkaido if their Kuril Islands campaign says anything about future Soviet amphibious landings.

[The Tiger Kingdom]

You actually could present a fairly convincing argument that the Germans won in France in 1940 due to luck. They sure as hell weren't planning for the BEF to freak the fuck out like they did and run for the Channel.

No they won because of a number of reasons.

One of the main reasons was a lack of public support in France b/c dat most losses of the Allied Powers in WW1

The actual fighting didn't last nearly long enough for public opinion to come into play.
Lack of POLITICAL support, though, absolutely was a factor, with people like Petain, Laval, and Reynaud running around shrieking about how the war was over after five days of fighting.
The two can be easily confused for the other.

So what could Japan have done to end the war in an advantageous position? I mean, if it could manage to survive the war, it would have basically been natural allies with the US during the Cold War.

I know I'm an anti-AH nut, but there really was no way for Japan to end a US-Japan war to its advantage. The literal only way Japan could have ever won was if the USA - the land of cowboys, constitutionally-protected gun ownership, and "Live Free Or Die", which had never lost a war - would let itself be intimidated into surrender by an impressive first strike, never having even had the chance to fight on its own terms.
That was a ridiculous and impossible assumption that Yamamoto knew would never come to pass. As soon as it started, the end was already written. it was just a matter of time.
And no, Imperial Japan would never have been a natural US ally against Russia, given that the entire public rationale of its campaign was fanatically anti-colonialist. They would have hated the USSR and US equally, both being non-Asian powers.
Postwar, of course, that changed.