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Gallia-
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Gallia- » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:39 am

State capitalism is the most superior system anyway. Lacks the inherent failures of free trade (i.e. being exploited by billionaire Americans, Indians, and Chinese who ship all your most advanced technology (and educated people!) back to their homelands, never to return), the inherent failures of total command economies (i.e. unpredictability and volatility leading to goods shortages and resource hoarding) and has the independent MIC that growing global empires crave. Or, well, that anyone craves TBH.

The PRC is only pro-free trade these days so it can steal Western (especially American) semiconductor and composites technology, among other things, to improve its military's techno-failures against the Russians (and USians). The fact that the PRC has the largest national market in the world (and a growing middle class) makes the profit motive a perverse incentive in the long run if you consider a national economy to be a political tool, which means that the USA will continue to experience brain drain to burgeoning techno-industrial (i.e. places that both manufacture and invent) economies like PRC and India; mostly because the students of the future will increasingly be Chinese and Indian, taught at American universities, who return to their homelands which have retained a functional industrial base.

In the future, free trade "knowledge economies" like UK and America will experience further de-industrialization, becoming increasingly irrelevant as they cannot make any use of their inventiveness and ingenuity without relying on an outside party like the PRC, Germany, or India. They will become economic backwaters that exist solely to send their best and brightest to advanced civilizations that will accept them (ideally said civilizations don't, since that would mean that those best and brightest might have a chance of rejuvenating their homelands, but they will probably accept them precisely because it will keep the West down).

Much like how Thailand isn't very important to the world despite manufacturing most computer hard disks, Silicon Valley will increasingly become less important to the world despite inventing new transistors, because the United States itself will be unable to manufacture these transistors. Then Silicon Valley will move to Beijing or Shanghai.

Thus, investors and inventors will seek new opportunities in the PRC (or some other place that still makes things, like Germany), which is all according to the CPC's master plan for achieving global hegemony. OTOH, if you have absolutely no national loyalties whatsoever, then free trade probably seems like a good deal no matter how you slice it; which is probably the only reason that anyone supports free trade in the most advanced economies.

Since pretty much everything in the PRC is planned, it's no coincidence that loads of Chinese students want to return to their homelands (or that loads of Chinese investors are rebuilding the occasional research lab or factory in the USA, which will only exist so far as they further the aims of the CPC to steal technology and subvert the Western alliance, and promptly vanish as soon as the PRC's enemies are sufficiently cowed); beyond the obvious dire economic situation the USA is in it's pretty clear that the PRC has an actual future ahead of it. The USA has a slow stagnation, precisely because it never planned how to go about the transition from industrial to "post-industrial".

So something like MITI is very much preferable to free trade, the latter of which seems to be less of a cure and more palliative care for an already ailing economy, while the former seems to be working fine in the PRC, worked fine for the United States in the 19th century, and worked fine for Japan until it stopped doing state capitalism in the 1980s.

While in theory free trade is a two way street, it doesn't seem to be much benefit for the United States, since the PRC simply doesn't view its economy as anything less than a weapon of war to destroy its enemies.
Last edited by Gallia- on Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:26 am, edited 10 times in total.

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DnalweN acilbupeR
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Postby DnalweN acilbupeR » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:39 pm

Gallia- wrote:State capitalism is the most superior system anyway. Lacks the inherent failures of free trade (i.e. being exploited by billionaire Americans, Indians, and Chinese who ship all your most advanced technology (and educated people!) back to their homelands, never to return), the inherent failures of total command economies (i.e. unpredictability and volatility leading to goods shortages and resource hoarding) and has the independent MIC that growing global empires crave. Or, well, that anyone craves TBH.


What benefit would any individual or group of billionaires have by bringing back technology and educated people back to their homelands? Assuming their first and foremost priority is profit, wouldn't it make sense to take these to wherever it's cheapest/more convenient to do manufacturing or R&D?

Also, what is MIC and MITI?
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Taihei Tengoku
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Postby Taihei Tengoku » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:32 pm

Again, MITI is highly overrated. It tried to stangle some of its most dynamic firms (e.g. Sony) in the cradle and industries it failed to rationalize (automobiles) are among Japan's most competitive. The unseen and unobvious policies in which Japan allowed freer economic action by private actors (such as its banks) is what allowed its industry to thrive. Japan's underappreciated and surprisingly liberal fundamentals were what allowed it to rocket past almost every other economy on Earth rather than the wizardry of enlightened mercantilist bureaucrats, and its Keynesian interventions following the crash is what produced a fiscally hamstrung government with a debt triple its annual gross production.

I suspect much of the China derangement is the same. Perhaps there is a greater kernel of truth to it because the CPC is more hostile in a way the CIA-backed LDP wasn't, but the PRC so far has cheated neither comparative advantage or the Solow curve.
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Austrasien
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Postby Austrasien » Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:02 pm

Gallia- wrote:State capitalism is the most superior system anyway. Lacks the inherent failures of free trade (i.e. being exploited by billionaire Americans, Indians, and Chinese who ship all your most advanced technology (and educated people!) back to their homelands, never to return), the inherent failures of total command economies (i.e. unpredictability and volatility leading to goods shortages and resource hoarding) and has the independent MIC that growing global empires crave. Or, well, that anyone craves TBH.

...

While in theory free trade is a two way street, it doesn't seem to be much benefit for the United States, since the PRC simply doesn't view its economy as anything less than a weapon of war to destroy its enemies.


Who owns the "means of production" probably is and has always been a Marxist spook. The USSR was in about the same position relative western Europe in 1973 as it was in 1600 - one has to go all the way back to the 1st millennium AD to find the real point of divergence.

But I think the last point nails it. Globalization is anathema to liberalism. Liberalism insists there is a duality between "state" and "economy" and that the state should ideally act as a neutral mediator vis-a-vis all actors in the economy and establish a level playing field. But as has become increasingly clear when an effective state rejects the dualism they can secure favorable terms for their economic actors than would otherwise be possible on a level playing field - it is possible to legislate comparative advantage into existence more or less. This is what eternally vexes every foreign company trying to gain a foothold in the Chinese market. They see themselves as having a legitimate right (in the grand liberal sense) to engage in economic activity while the Chinese see nothing of the sort and only tolerate them as long as they are useful. For a long time this was not picked up on because of faulty comparisons with the late 19th century when economic policy was highly liberal de jure. But this is the result of another empirically questionable categorical division between state, economy and society. When nationalism was strong everywhere there simply wasn't the same need for state intervention.

But nationalism is very nearly criminal in western societies now (though amusingly this has also coincided with westerners becoming more inward looking than ever - most millennials probably didn't even remember Russia was a real thing and not a fictional Tom Clancy villain until the media began screaming about it 24/7), we know they are winning at it, and we do literally nothing. Less than nothing because the full extent of China's activities and aims are deliberately suppressed by western governments, corporations and media because the Chinese will punish anyone who gets out of line - and nobody dares risk "access" to the Chinese market. We even applaud their comical Pravda like up-is-down agitprop.

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Gallia-
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Gallia- » Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:22 pm

Austrasien wrote:one has to go all the way back to the 1st millennium AD to find the real point of divergence.


fuk mongolians

rip yaroslav ;~;

Austrasien wrote:Freedom is China


my loyalty is to whoever has the most and best tankus rly

atm prc is winning the war for my sperg~~~ *swoon*

dont even care that it's all just body kits for t-72s and bmp-1s

still better than what anyone in the west can do sans grrmoney
Last edited by Gallia- on Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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The Macabees
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Postby The Macabees » Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:58 pm

Gallia- wrote:Much like how Thailand isn't very important to the world despite manufacturing most computer hard disks, Silicon Valley will increasingly become less important to the world despite inventing new transistors, because the United States itself will be unable to manufacture these transistors. Then Silicon Valley will move to Beijing or Shanghai.


Most of the value in an iPhone isn't in the hardware. It's in the software.

The hardware is produced in Indonesia.

The software is produced in Silicon Valley.

Much of the new manufacturing the U.S. does is intangible.

Edit: The computer I use at work might have been $700. Most of that value is software. 95% of the value-added stuff (additional programs and applications) is software, except for hardware upgrades. For a $200 million/yr. company, for an email automation software, they're paying $120,000/yr. They're paying a similar price for Salesforce. They're paying tens of thousands of dollars for project management systems, IT systems, digital communication systems where software is a huge value added, etc. Most of the value in an alarm system is software. Companies spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on digital ads on Google alone, large fractions of that on Facebook. You might spend $25k a month on trying to get organic traffic from Google, all that is software. True, it needs hardware, but those companies are able to scale over the long-run because capital costs are low - the costs just tend to be front-loaded. That's what Silicon Valley produces, the kind of stuff labor with high human capital does, not relatively low-skill manufacturing.
Last edited by The Macabees on Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Gallia-
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Gallia- » Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:12 pm

"Labor with high human capital" will never be more than 1-5% of a given population. IQ distribution disallows anything greater. So you still need some way of employing the other 90-95% of the work force that isn't intelligent enough to be a Silicon Valley programmer. The problem with "knowledge economy" isn't that it is high value or anything of the sort. The problem is that it is highly exclusionary and more or less down to a roll of genetic dice. Such an economy is a return to medieval feudalism and inherently incompatible with democratic values, because the only people who are employable in that economy are high IQs, which necessarily make up a very small minority of the overall population.

The major benefit that those "low skill manufacturing jobs" provide is a reliable source of income taxes, job stability, and dignity to the 95-99% of people who are merely average or slightly above average IQs.
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The Macabees
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Postby The Macabees » Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:21 pm

That's really just an assertion.

Anyways, the great thing about a lot of the high-valued software that's made is that it helps introduce relatively low-skill workers into the industry. With no degree, you can make $30,000/yr. as a coder and not actually knowing much coding, except for a bit of html and maybe some css. The job will teach you, because those skills are in such high demand that a lot of companies have to train from scratch nowadays.

It's expensive to train people to code. They have high-value software that basically builds the website for you, which allows small companies to hire relatively low-skill labor and pay them at bottom-of-high-skilled-labor-pay-rates.

From that job, if you work hard, build your skills, and learn -- you learn php --, you can jump to $45,000-60,000/yr.

All thanks to page making software.

Google ads are becoming more and more automated. It doesn't make the pay-per-click specialist irrelevant. It helps low-skill people to join that labor market. These guys are in such high demand that you'll be lucky to get one for less than $50k/yr. Smaller companies are willing to train into the position, and they feed into higher paying opportunities.

The digital labor market is growing and will continue to become easier to break into.
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Postby The Macabees » Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:23 pm

There will always be such thing as low-skill labor in the U.S. It's just that the nature of what is defined to be low-skill will change.
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Gallia-
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Gallia- » Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:41 pm

The Macabees wrote:There will always be such thing as low-skill labor in the U.S. It's just that the nature of what is defined to be low-skill will change.


Low skill labour is determined by IQ, not by what society thinks low skill labour is. The majority of people cannot actually be programmers, or even participate in the knowledge economy, because the "knowledge economy" is a niche industry. It is very expensive, sure, but it is niche because it can only employ a small group of people. It is comparable to aeronautics in the 1930s, or rocketry in the 1950s. The best and brightest go into it, but there's nothing left to soak up the rest of the nation, unlike the 1930s and 1950s, which had factories to employ the low skill/average IQ workers.

What will happen to the United States is two things, assuming that it continues its present course (it almost certainly will not, but it will also likely not stray far from it):

1) Bifurcation of society into two groups. Roughly, haves and haves-not. The haves will be high IQs (=>130) who work at major programming firms and produce "knowledge", whatever that means. The haves-not will be everyone else, who are burdening society with greater levels of debt in trying to make up the inherent deficit of their own genes and relatively low IQ. They simply cannot compete with the high IQs, because no matter what they learn, the high IQ will learn it faster and better. It is impossible to find a job in an economy that values "knowledge workers" over actual workers, because the jobs have been offshored to places like Thailand, Indonesia, and China, so the average American is more or less reduced to becoming a street sweeper with broom, if he's lucky. If he's unlucky and was born with a 95-99 IQ, or less, he will just be tossed aside in all job interviews because he is too dumb to compete with the higher IQs.

2) Decreasing tax revenue means that the various state services of the USA will become increasingly underfunded. The USA will probably become less relevant as a military and economic power in this stage of decline, since it takes in fewer taxes it eventually cannot afford to pay pensions, welfare, or even its own debt interest. Swamped with retirees who are dying in the streets, an ever decreasing birth rate due to increasing economic development, and an ever shrinking taxation pool; the USA will probably shrink into a handful of relevant quasi-city states or something, mostly because these places are populated by the high IQs who produce knowledge. Everyone else just sort of hangs in limbo until they die of diabetes or a heart attack or something, as the USA increasingly resembles Detroit writ large.

The haves will be an ever shrinking population group, while the haves-not will be also ever shrinking, but they are proportionately much larger. The USA may actually experience genotypic IQ drop from increased immigration in the future, which would lower its competitiveness to the Chinese even further, who have among the highest IQs of all ethnicities. Eventually the haves will recognize that the USA has no future, while the PRC may actually be improving, and they will start migrating to the PRC. It has a functional state, functional tax revenues, and economic dynamicism. The USA has none of these things, because it cannot even employ average people in the most basic of jobs. Or perhaps the USA simply falls apart and is eaten by the Chinese.

The Macabees wrote:Anyways, the great thing about a lot of the high-valued software that's made is that it helps introduce relatively low-skill workers into the industry. With no degree, you can make $30,000/yr. as a coder and not actually knowing much coding, except for a bit of html and maybe some css. The job will teach you, because those skills are in such high demand that a lot of companies have to train from scratch nowadays.

It's expensive to train people to code. They have high-value software that basically builds the website for you, which allows small companies to hire relatively low-skill labor and pay them at bottom-of-high-skilled-labor-pay-rates.

From that job, if you work hard, build your skills, and learn -- you learn php --, you can jump to $45,000-60,000/yr.


You assume that most people have the IQ to do this. This is not the case. Maybe 30% of the US population has the combination of IQ and thus, potential to learn the skills, to do this at all, let alone do it successfully and competitively. The average IQ of an IT worker in the USA is about 110. The average IQ of a HS graduate, OTOH, is about 104. And that average IQ will drop in the future, like it has in the Netherlands and in Norway.

The Flynn Effect will not save the average American. It's already ended in Europe and is rapidly ending in America. IQ will probably stop rising and start falling in America sometime in the latter half of the next decade.

The Macabees wrote:All thanks to page making software.

Google ads are becoming more and more automated. It doesn't make the pay-per-click specialist irrelevant. It helps low-skill people to join that labor market. These guys are in such high demand that you'll be lucky to get one for less than $50k/yr. Smaller companies are willing to train into the position, and they feed into higher paying opportunities.

The digital labor market is growing and will continue to become easier to break into.


The "digital labor market" is globalized, so it is not American. Why would you hire Americans when you can hire competent people like Chinese? Especially when the average American high school graduate IQ drops to 100, or lower, and the average Chinese IQ stays about constant? You wouldn't. Not for boring work like Screamweaver, when the Chinese are willing to do the same job and do it better, on account of the IQ thing. You'd just have a couple Americans (again, with above average IQs, which will increasingly resemble modern day average Americans) proofread their spelling or fill in words. Hardly the makings of a "low skill industry" that can soak up the masses of people a bit too slow to learn through books but perfectly fine with their hands.

Which is really the problem...

If you really want to stave off the most dire of futures, you'd be looking at some way of restoring handiwork to the American economy writ large. Factories are one way to go about it, but you could also see an increase in American welding and construction firms, major infrastructure improvements/investments, and other jobs which require less cognitive work and more physical work. You could even get Millennials to do it, with their scrawny arms, with things like FORTIS.

Call centers are another one (IMO the model of a digital age factory, since call centers require very low cognitive loading and mostly run on scripts until you punt someone to a manager or next level support team), but I'm not sure those will be a serious thing since it really is that much cheaper to just hire Indians, but they are apparently making somewhat a slight comeback in the UK.

Otherwise you risk developing a terminal dependent underclass of disenfranchised (literally, although the cynical part of me thinks this is a hugely positive development) and impoverished former factory workers whose lives exploded when the unions collapsed and the companies sent their jobs overseas. Oh wait, America already has that! Which, combined with a shrinking taxpayer base (the vast majority being the result of the demographic transition and increasing lifespans) that reduces the amount of funding available for social, educational, and infrastructural improvements that improve socioeconomic well-being for all classes of society; things look pretty grim for the average USian to ever pull himself out of the hole that has been conveniently dug for him.
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Postby The Macabees » Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:37 pm

As someone who works in the industry, nothing you say about it is remotely correct.

Also, btw, the nature of low- and high-skill labor has been changing throughout human history. Low-skill labor today is not the same thing as low-skill laber 200 years ago, and even less like low-skill labor 2,000 years ago.

The high-skill labor that made Aristotle famous is what disgruntled, unemployed, armchair, low-skill college grads argue about on the internet now.
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Gallia-
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Gallia- » Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:41 pm

The Macabees wrote:As someone who works in the industry, nothing you say about it is remotely correct.


You're telling me you have an IQ of <115? Sure, I believe you. :roll:

Anyway, I wasn't talking about "the industry" (whatever that is), I was talking about the future of America. i.e. the post 2030 era or so.

The Macabees wrote:Also, btw, the nature of low- and high-skill labor has been changing throughout human history.


The requirements for being a highly paid computer programmer are not going to tank from IQ 110 down to IQ 95 overnight, nor will they retain the same level of reimbursement if they did. They will drop commensurately in value. You are correct that what is high skill today will be low skill tomorrow. Which is why Screamweaver and php coding are dead end jobs, just like IT network management. Once everyone knows how to do this, your ability to sell yourself and remain useful drops unless you are actually competent (less likely) or in an entrenched position within an organization (more likely), thus you run into the IQ wall again.

The Macabees wrote:The high-skill labor that made Aristotle famous is what disgruntled, unemployed, armchair, low-skill college grads argue about on the internet now.


The high skill labor that made Aristotle famous is still high skill labor. Or do you think that the Greek philosophers were regurgitating two thousand year old treatises? Of course not. Aristotle was the computer scientist of his day. Or the past's steam engineer, aerodynamicist, or rocket scientist. Or the future's biochemist, geneticist, nanotechnologist, or whatever the next big thing will be when computers plateau. The fact that he also came at the end of the last great revolution of Western civilization probably has more than a passing similarity to computer scientists today, too.

And so the high skill labor that made Joe Six-Pack a multi-media megastar selling php templates to InvisionFree users is what IQ 95s will be doing for minimum wage in 2030? Somehow I doubt that. More than likely the average folks will be relegated to a few remaining positions as secretaries, call center workers, nursing aides, and other jobs which require human interaction but not a high cognitive load, because all the button-pressing jobs have been replaced by foreigners (more likely) or robots (less likely), and all the high IQ jobs are closed off to them because the genetic lottery didn't roll in their favour. The rest are unemployed and living off of ever shrinking benefits checks or scrapping metal to sell to buy bread. Perhaps said metal scrap can be sold on Etsy.com as "modern art sculptures" or something.

Combine that with a slowly plateauing lifespan, an increasingly strained infrastructure (physical, medical, educational, etc.), a near constant retirement age, a growing retiree population, and a shrinking taxpayer base, etc. etc.

The IQ problem is really the tip of the iceberg anyway, but it's obvious to most people that anyone who can earn $50,000/year coding is well above average. Not just in wage, but in IQ and general problem solving ability. If programmers ever successfully unionize or make a guild, expect that route to success to close up quickly too. The actual problem facing Western civilization is how to address the decreasing tax revenues and declining educations as a result of reduced funding for schooling, grants, and infrastructure. The root of the problem is demographic; the dependency ratio is climbing because there's more back-end "growth" of a bunch of useless codgers lying around than there is front-end taxpayers. None of these will be terribly obvious for a few more decades, except in slowly rapidly collapsing countries like Poland, Czechia, or Romania; which are a portent of the future of the industrialized world.

Declining birth rates means that the absolute number of employed people will continue to shrink, as well as the absolute number of highly intelligent people, both of which will slow technological progress further than it already is. No funding for basic research (no governments can afford it), no funding for applied research (no one is able to buy anything), and people are increasingly unable to solve difficult problems quickly. We are probably very close to the next constant technology level of Humanity. Much like the horse and wagon was adequate from when Christ walked the Earth to the US Civil War, the Boeing will be adequate from when computers were still using magnetic memory to however many years it takes us to pick ourselves up again, if we ever do.

Granted, this depends on whether or not you view education and social environment as a large determinator of success in society, rather than taking Jungian-era raw IQ as being the determining factor. But it's bleak either way. If IQ is the majority factor like Jensen supposes, then the USA's declining standard of immigration means that its IQ will drop in the majority of the population while a few elites (Indians and Chinese) will be left to tend for the morons. If society is the majority factor like the party line supposes, then the USA's shrinking taxpayer base and increasing cost of pensions means that something has to give: either you cut pensions and the welfare state to focus on the declining youth population, or you cut education and national defense to focus on the increasing retiree population. America is a democracy, retirees vote, and their numbers are increasing relative to young people; you can do the math.

If neither are terribly dominant/both are necessary for success, like is probably the case, then the USA is double boned because it won't have money to pay for education. Even if it did, its native students are not likely to be very good scholars anyway (relative to Chinese students) because their IQs are lower so their ability to absorb information and solve problems will be that much diminished (meaning more time for a given problem, or an outright inability to understand and solve a problem), so it will still be outsourcing its development to Chinese firms. Firms which have more intelligent workers, who have been trained in the USA's universities, and in Chinese owned R&D labs operating in the USA, and returned home to start their own universities/startups/tech companies to compete with America's. Then the Chinese leave, because they have sucked America dry of all its brains, wealth and dignity, so there's nothing left but a shriveled husk of a former civilization.

Classic kleptocracy move. If China is Rome, we are Carthage. And Rome eventually collapsed because it ran out of places to plunder. Rather than developing a sustainable, wealth generating economy, it destroyed the wealth generators it encountered and took their riches for itself. Nazi Germany did the same to the people it conquered. And so will the PRC.

But this is all pretty obvious stuff. It just requires you to look through the proper lens. Image

A dirge for mankind. Image

Probably a couple centuries too early to be closing the curtain on Mankind, though that is definitely the direction we're headed. Alternate direction is a neo-Dark Age where localism rules and cosmopolitanism is so high that people lose all sense of national identity, forming loosely connected city states and fiefdoms in the aftermath of an actual cyber apocalypse. cf. post-Rome Europe, but on a global scale, with all the ridiculous social upheaval that entails. The latter is a bit optimistic, though.
Last edited by Gallia- on Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:27 am, edited 22 times in total.

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Averland-Jorland
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Postby Averland-Jorland » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:23 am

Taihei Tengoku wrote:
Averland-Jorland wrote:http://iiwiki.com/wiki/Economy_of_Averland-Jorland

Discuss.

The trade and currency and history sections are currently closed as I am in no region yet.

Economic dynamism and state ownership are mutually exclusive since the 1930s, and even then you had to do it over a pile of corpses. Mao tried in the 50s and got a pile of corpses but no industry. So-called "success stories" of central planning still allowed for the profit motive and their success was as much in spite of dirigisme as it was because of it (see: Japan and MITI). However, I may be a bit biased so here is a series of articles on Soviet economic history if you'd like to read
The remainder of the posts on the thread are too off-topic to my article, so I'm only going to reply to this one.

There's no need (or point) to have a detailed debate between the merits of central planning and a market economy. A person who writes a non-heterodox "Economy of" article will always have to defend their system but in practice, these arguments can never be won or lost. I think I incorporated widely-held views about the negatives of central planning - shortages, weak work incentives, weak consumer choice - with also fairly evidential perspectives like rapid industrial growth and overemployment. Averland-Jorland is also not the USSR and lacks some of the problems of the Soviet Union (although it also lacks some of the advantages too.)
a
I have read the nintil articles before and they are okay. But critiques of central planning are ten a penny - this one doesn't seem very special to me.
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DnalweN acilbupeR
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Postby DnalweN acilbupeR » Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:04 am

Thought I'd post this here too since it's relevant. Sorry for any wrong translations it was pretty much just Google translate and then my common sense when that failed lol

An overview of French paramilitary forces, from what I could gather from the French Wikipedia and other sources, if it interests anyone:

The French Gendarmerie Mobile is geographically divided in 7 "Gendarmerie Regions/Areas" based on where the "Gendarmerie Groups" which they're comprised of are garrisoned/based. Each of these "Gendarmerie Groups" is roughly equal in size to a battalion or regiment. There are a total of 18 groups, of which 1 is "armored" (or rather "light mechanized"): the GBGM (Groupement blindé de gendarmerie mobile), which operates VBRG 4x4 wheeled APCs and which used to operate tank destroyers/mobile guns. In total there are 109 escadrons (companies) ; of these, 7 are part of the GBGM. Each group has 4-10 escadrons ; each region has 1 to 4 groups or 8 to 22 escadrons.

The standard Gendarmerie Mobile (non-GBGM) escadron is formed by around 110 soldiers, grouped in 4 "march"/line platoons (of which one is designated the "Peloton d'intervention" or "Intervention Platoon"), each comprising 2 vans (Irisbus/Iveco VMO: Véhicule de maintien de l'ordre/VTGGM: Véhicule de transport de groupe de Gendarmerie mobile), and a "out-of-range" (command/support) platoon riding in a Renault B110 PC (poste de commandament). The Intervention Platoon is specially selected, trained, and equipped, being able to perform the same duties of the other platoons along with them, but also being capable of performing other 'specialized missions'. When deployed overseas they may use the vans or Renault B110 4x4.

Until the early 2000's some "mixed squadrons" existed in the provinces, employing one VBRG-equipped platoon. These vehicles have been returned to the GBGM. VBRGs also exist in Corsica and other French overseas territories in platoons of typically 3-5 vehicles. They've also been deployed in external operations such as Kosovo and the Ivory Coast.

At the group level the Gendarmerie Mobile also have access to the following assets:

  • Renault B110 4x4 trucks
  • Renault P4 jeeps/LUVs
  • Renault Premium logistics trucks

The following are typically available at the regional level:

  • Renault TRM 2000 all-terrain military trucks
  • Renault TRM 2000 DRAP (Dispositif de Retenue Autonome du Public) - roughly "self-propelled/mobile barrier vehicle"

Specialized vehicles include the Renault Master OEIL (Observation et Exploitation de l'Imagerie Légale) - basically a surveillance/observation vehicle for public order operations, bulldozers, vehicle transporters/carriers. The GIGN (and possibly AGIGN and/or PSPG?) also get special and armored vehicles.

Regarding special or elite forces of the Gendarmerie Nationale, these are mainly formed by: PI (Pelotons d'intervention) of the Gendarmerie Mobile or Republican Guard, AGIGN (Antenne du GIGN - regional GIGN), GIGN (Groupe d'intervention de la Gendarmerie nationale), as well as PSPG (protection of civilian nuclear sites, "can be engaged as tactical units in a secondary role.")

The Operational Reserve of the Gendarmerie Nationale numbers around 25.000. Formerly they were organized in Departmental Gendarmerie Reserve Platoons and Mobile Gendarmerie Reserve Squadrons ; they were reassigned to Territorial Reserve Companies, resulting from the merger of the Departmental Gendarmerie Reserves and the Mobile Gendarmerie Reserves. 367 including 19 overseas Territorial Reserve Companies were thus created in 2015. Each has a nominal strength of 75 men and is attached to a Departmental Gendarmerie Company. In the past there were 44 reserve squadrons of the mobile gendarmerie.

The Gendarmerie Nationale operates a total of 55 Eurocopter helicopters for "surveillance, intervention and rescue" duties, of the types: AS350 Écureuil - 26, EC135 - 15, EC145: 14. The GIGN also have access to the joint army-air force special operations flight GIH ("Groupe interarmées d'hélicoptères"), which operates SA330 Puma helicopters ; this is also available to the RAID police special unit.

This is the "configuration of a Mobile Gendarmerie company in public order operations":

Configuration des escadrons de gendarmerie mobile en opération de maintien de l’ordre

ESCADRON DE GENDARMERIE MOBILE EN CONFIGURATION ALPHA

Image

GC : Groupe de commandement

CDU : Commandant d’unité

CDP : Commandant de peloton

SOA : Sous-officier adjoint

CAF : Chef appuis feu

SOE : Sous-officier d’échelon

CIOP : Cellule image ordre public


ESCADRON DE GENDARMERIE MOBILE EN CONFIGURATION BRAVO

Image

GC : Groupe de commandement

CDU : Commandant d’unité

CDP : Commandant de peloton

SOA : Sous-officier adjoint

CAF : Chef appuis feu

SOE : Sous-officier d’échelon


From what I can gather, the CDU is the company commander, the CDP is the platoon commander, the SOE is the company NCO, the SOA is the platoon NCO, the CAF roughly translates to something like "fire chief" so I suppose some sort of NCO/specialist (somehow relating to fire support?), and the CIOP are basically like a 2-man surveillance/camera crew maybe somewhat like UK's FIT.

Regarding the Police nationale special units, they are brought together under the FIPN (Force d’intervention de la Police nationale - Intervention force of the national Police), consisting of:

  • RAID (recherche, assistance, intervention, dissuasion) - central unit in Bievres and 10 regional offices in the provinces
  • BRI-BAC (Brigade de recherche et d'intervention - Brigade anticommando) - part of the Prefecture of Paris Police, not an organic part of the National Police but rather reporting directly to the Ministry of the Interior.
  • GIPN (Groupe d'intervention de la Police nationale) - 3 units located in overseas territories.

The CRS form the Police nationale reserves, outlined as such:

  • 1 Central Directorate under a Director-general of the National Police in Paris
  • 7 Zonal Directorates (one for each metropolitan military defense zone)
  • 60 general service companies - public order and riot control
  • 9 motorway companies - "highway patrol in urban areas"
  • 6 motorcycle companies - I suspect for convoy escort duties
  • 2 mountain rescue companies
  • 1 VIP escort company (CRS no.1 - also includes the National Police Band)

Some CRS officers from the "general service" companies are cross-trained and serve as lifeguards during the summer. "A company typically spends more than 200 days per year away from its base town."
Last edited by DnalweN acilbupeR on Sat Aug 26, 2017 10:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Welskerland
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Postby Welskerland » Fri Aug 25, 2017 4:17 pm

How might a diarchy arise?
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Postby Kazarogkai » Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:07 pm

Welskerland wrote:How might a diarchy arise?


Wasn't that the case with Sparta with it's two kings. One functioned as junior while the other was senior in practice but still. Plus Rome with it's two consuls and arguably the semi presidential system in it's self encodes this with the president focused exclusively on foreign policy while the prime minister focuses on domestic policy.

This question reminds me of something I wanted to ask. Imagine you have a country like the united states, constitution and all. Just like in the usa it has two houses of congress, the senate and the representatives. My question is rather than having a presidential system could some type of semi presidential system work under such a system? My reasoning is they were worried the president would be too strong and trusted congress a bit more as such the decided to divide the executive into two officers: The Consul and the President. The president is head of state and commander in chief and handles foreign policy, they are appointed by the Senate and represent the states. The Consul on the otherhand is head of government and handles domestic policy and is appointed by the representatives and ultimately represent the will of the people. Could something like that actually work in a country and what would be the results if that was the path the USA itself took from the time they made the constitution onward? I imagine no imperial presidency would involve, and maybe there is a slight boost to third parties compared to the normal system.
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Welskerland
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Postby Welskerland » Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:42 pm

Kazarogkai wrote:
Welskerland wrote:How might a diarchy arise?


Wasn't that the case with Sparta with it's two kings. One functioned as junior while the other was senior in practice but still. Plus Rome with it's two consuls and arguably the semi presidential system in it's self encodes this with the president focused exclusively on foreign policy while the prime minister focuses on domestic policy.

This question reminds me of something I wanted to ask. Imagine you have a country like the united states, constitution and all. Just like in the usa it has two houses of congress, the senate and the representatives. My question is rather than having a presidential system could some type of semi presidential system work under such a system? My reasoning is they were worried the president would be too strong and trusted congress a bit more as such the decided to divide the executive into two officers: The Consul and the President. The president is head of state and commander in chief and handles foreign policy, they are appointed by the Senate and represent the states. The Consul on the otherhand is head of government and handles domestic policy and is appointed by the representatives and ultimately represent the will of the people. Could something like that actually work in a country and what would be the results if that was the path the USA itself took from the time they made the constitution onward? I imagine no imperial presidency would involve, and maybe there is a slight boost to third parties compared to the normal system.


That's something I've wondered myself. The POTUS seems like a very burdensome job for one individual, and I think it makes since to have separate heads of state and government, but if the two must be merged, then there should be a more than one person serving it, since many people are qualified to be one or the other, but not both. I've read somewhere that the U.S. never had an official head of state, and the President is just the head of government, but ended up becoming de facto head of state by default. Idk the accuracy of that, though.

I don't know if separating the head of state and head of government in a presidential system would make much of a difference other than, like you said, we probably wouldn't have an imperial presidency, with the POTUS serving as a ceremonial figurehead. Since there is a separation of powers, the Consul would not be accountable to Congress, unlike a prime minister in a parliamentary system, and we may just be separating the president from the executive, while the Consul essentially "replaces" the President, so to speak, so he'd probably just as difficult to remove as the POTUS aside from impeachment and a term limit.

Speaking of term limits, there would be some debate on whether or not the Consul would have or need term limits. Since the President would be less active and intrusive in domestic affairs, maybe term limits may not be as stringent. Yes, many parliamentary systems have a president as head of state who often has a term limit, but I don't see that as a requirement. Malaysia is a monarchy where the king is elected and serves a term of five years, if you can have a monarch with a term limit, I don't see why a parliamentary democracy cannot have a president without a term limit as long as he is just a ceremonial figurehead. The lines between a republic and the monarchy are blurred in our modern world, with constitutional monarchies (whose heads of state are not elected and have serve for life) are very democratic and some countries have an elected president but the country maybe a dictatorship. So, I don't see why a president as the ceremonial head of state, as long as he is democratically elected, must have a term limit or otherwise the country would be undemocratic, if a monarch can be the head of democratic country.
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Averland-Jorland
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Postby Averland-Jorland » Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:57 am

Malaysias elective monarchy is just an arcane way of ceremony-sharing. By elected they mean the Sultans choose amongst themselves.

Switzerland is run by a Federal Council. I think its seven members. That might also interest you.

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Postby Austrasien » Sat Aug 26, 2017 3:07 am

Welskerland wrote:How might a diarchy arise?


Be Rome? Be Sparta?

The one-man executive is mostly a holdover from feudalism. Europeans were fixated with the idea there needed to be someone who "embodied" the state at the turn of the 19th century because they still had not completely shaken off the feudal norm that states were in some sense the personal property of their ruler. And because modern Republican governance was codified in this period it became the new norm everywhere. Collective heads of state were not particularly uncommon in classical antiquity, which preceded Germanic feudalism and so did not carry all the baggage.
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Postby Welskerland » Sat Aug 26, 2017 6:26 am

Austrasien wrote:
Welskerland wrote:How might a diarchy arise?


Be Rome? Be Sparta?

The one-man executive is mostly a holdover from feudalism. Europeans were fixated with the idea there needed to be someone who "embodied" the state at the turn of the 19th century because they still had not completely shaken off the feudal norm that states were in some sense the personal property of their ruler. And because modern Republican governance was codified in this period it became the new norm everywhere. Collective heads of state were not particularly uncommon in classical antiquity, which preceded Germanic feudalism and so did not carry all the baggage.


Does a country really need a head of state? I mean, you could assign head of state duties to someone like the Minister of Foreign Affairs or something. I like the idea of a collective head of state, but idk their track record when it comes to governance.
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Austrasien
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Postby Austrasien » Sat Aug 26, 2017 8:51 am

The Swiss Federal Council seems to work fine.
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Postby Iltica » Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:54 pm

Field-of-study-irrelevent history class won't shut up about how great meritocracy is and got me thinking. Is there any historically plausible way it could have existed into present day? And if it did, what would the test criteria be in a secular society? Most of the real world examples have them being scholars of religious texts it seems.
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Postby -AlEmAnNiA- » Sat Aug 26, 2017 1:05 pm

Did meritocracy suddenly die out? Are states with any sort of bureaucracies not meritocratic by default

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Postby NeuPolska » Sat Aug 26, 2017 1:10 pm

Iltica wrote:Field-of-study-irrelevent history class won't shut up about how great meritocracy is and got me thinking. Is there any historically plausible way it could have existed into present day? And if it did, what would the test criteria be in a secular society? Most of the real world examples have them being scholars of religious texts it seems.

You could have leaders chosen by their peers in their field. Defense ministers chosen by generals, leaders chosen based on awards received and public approval as well as taking any service they'd done into account, and leave voting restricted to members of society with high IQs, etc. Plenty of room still left for corruption I suppose but oh well.

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Postby Taihei Tengoku » Sat Aug 26, 2017 1:28 pm

Meritocracy is more about building a good apparatus of state rather than ensuring a philosopher king. Most Chinese emperors are forgettable because what mattered was the bureaucracy that kept the lights on and arranged the trigrams in an auspcious manner to please the ancestor spirits every day.

The problem is that politics is inherently political and even civil servants are self-interested actors seeking their own ends in the face of constraints and tradeoffs.
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