Bezombia wrote:I'm not so sure with the whole "AR gone in 10 years" thing.
How many times have they tried to replace it? How many times have they actually replaced it? And this is, keep in mind, originally planned to be a stopgap rifle until a new one could replace it.
No, I think it will be around for longer than that. Why? Because it takes a lot to replace a rifle.
The M1903/M1906 was replaced by the M1 because semi-automatic fire was a huge jump over bolt action. The M14 was replaced by the M1 because fully automatic fire was a huge jump over semi-automatic - however that failed, and the M16 replaced it bringing small calibers and controllable fully automatic fire.
In Britain, the same basic trend happened. Bolt action Lee Enfield, fully automatic heavy FAL, fully automatic light SA80.
Even in Russia the trend continues. The Mosin to the AK (full auto heavy) to the AK-74 (full auto light).
So for a new rifle to come about for
any of the major nations, something
big would have to happen - something as big as changing to fully automatic fire, or adopting intermediate cartridges. Russia almost got there with the AN-94 (extremely accurate burst fire) but the AN is very complicated and still really isn't seeing use. The Germans took a different route and likewise got very close with the G11 (extremely accurate burst fire
and very lightweight caseless ammunition) but in addition to the complexity a whole mess of political issues, such as reunification, fucked up that idea and killed the program, leading to the G36.
And that kind of innovation isn't being seen in current military trials. Look at the Individual Carbine Competition - one of the requirements was that it fired 7.62x51 or 5.56x45, so no cartridge innovation. Also most of the entrants were basic rifles that were better than the AR but weren't really anything new. Whilst the entrants were certainly "new" rifles (such as the HK416, ACR, SCAR, etc.) the concepts behind them aren't new at all, with older rifles such as the AR-18 being very similar to IC Competition rifles.
To sum everything up, in short imo we'd need an american equivalent to the G11 in order to see the AR replaced - and even the G11 wouldn't be good enough, because the G11 was part of the ACR program and lost.