What will the referendum mean for Nantai?
October protests in Namor's consulate in Kenyen
KENYEN, NANTAI - With news of the proposed Nantainese referendum spreading far and wide, social media has gone wild, with many people, especially from Monic countries such as Mingwok and Qianrong expressing their support via Twitter. The referendum is virtually guaranteed to pass through our legislative assembly, and we can expect that by mid-April, the campaigning will truly begin for the referendum as we, the Nantainese will have full control of our own destiny.
The options
The referendum will have three options: status quo, unification with Namor, and independence.
Status quo is really obvious: it means that we remain part of Luziyca, as a constituent republic. It is likely that this option will win, considering our pro-Luziycan sentiments, and our diverging cultures since the First Namo-Luziycan War (and especially since the 1950s with the rise of Liberationism in Namor).
Unification is also obvious: it means we join Namor. This option may have the support of Namorese people, but Nantainese will almost certainly be opposed to the prospect of becoming a prefecture subordinate to the district of West Namor, especially considering how Namorese politicians ignore the opinions of Nantainese.
The last choice is interesting: independence. Basically, Nantai would become a sovereign nation, separate from both Namor and Luziyca, if the Nantainese decide to become an independent nation.
The reasons
Yi Cheng has stated to the Legislative Assembly of Nantai that "for a long time, both Luziycans and Namorese have sought to negotiate the final status of Nantai. The October Consensus seems good in theory, but the Nantainese were not involved in any of this. Nowhere did they even consider what we wanted to say: while we have agreed with the status quo, it is now clear that we must send a message to the rest of the world that our opinions matter. The choice is up to the Nantainese on whether it should join Namor, or not at all."
This eloquent statement made when introducing the bill that proposed the referendum on the future status of Nantai brings many good points. How? Well...
Politicians in Namo have often been quite hesitant to listen to the opinions of Nantainese: the closest thing was when Huan An made his historic visit to Nantai during the Namorese election campaign, and supported a referendum by Nantainese to decide the future status of Nantai. Not all the Namorese, but rather, just those residing in Nantai.
At the same time, top-level negotiations between Fu Wen and Breuvi Shjoraski have made Nantai a "Namorese territory under Luziycan administration." Nowhere did they consult any Nantainese about this, but we went along with it. However, with Shohai Antelope taking office, and concerns that detente may be eroded, many Nantainese have decided that now is the time to make their position clear to the world that they matter.
It is entirely possible that this referendum would be done just to spite Shohai Antelope and the Liberationist government, and if it were, it would work spectacularly well, considering how they oppose a referendum within Nantai (unless they make the voice of the nearly 3 million Nantainese irrelevant by pouring in the votes of the 937 million Namorese).
The impact on relations
Considering how the concept of popular sovereignty has received a cold shoulder in Namor when it comes to the Nantainese question, a referendum may risk straining relations between Luziyca and Namor to the breaking point. While Luziycans support the right of Nantainese to determine their own future, many Namorese feel that Nantai should be return to Luziyca, no matter what we think. It is almost as if our opinions are irrelevant in the eyes of Namo.
And considering the fact that many Nantainese would almost certainly vote for the status quo, it is very likely Namorese may view the referendum as rigged and fraudulent, even if we have all the best electoral observers from all the democracies in the world monitoring the referendum.
There is also something that we have not considered: if Nantainese vote to become a sovereign country, while Nantai might be a buffer state between the two countries, it would be too influenced by both sides. And if Nantai did become sovereign, even if it could support itself, it is clear that Nantai may not handle the extra burden posed by having to operate a government, especially if it has to play off Namo and Bethlehem.
What would be the best option?
The editors of the Kenyen Gazette would advise people to vote for the status quo should the referendum take place, considering we have done quite well as a constituent republic. If we continue as is, we could easily becoming an entrepôt between Namor and Luziyca, and thrive. Should Nantai become part of Namor, there will be a bit of a culture shock. And finally, an independent Nantai would be vulnerable to outside forces.
