Romney-Obama: Handicapping the Race

[Wamitoria]

I think he's using the definition of liberal that relates to economic liberalism.

Which to a leftist means spineless wimp, right?

No, it means a capitalist who uses leftist rhetoric.

[Franklin Delano Bluth]

No; it's just that a liberal is a right-winger who simply realizes that he has to throw the rabble a bone every now and then if he wants to preserve the corrupt status quo on which his privileged position depends, while leftists want to replace that status quo altogether.

[New England and The Maritimes]

No; it's just that a liberal is a right-winger who simply realizes that he has to throw the rabble a bone every now and then if he wants to preserve the corrupt status quo on which his privileged position depends, while leftists want to replace that status quo altogether.

Yep. That said, I realize we need an intact society to transition from. Hence, Obama 2012. Hence, Obama's successor 2016.

[Khadgar]

No; it's just that a liberal is a right-winger who simply realizes that he has to throw the rabble a bone every now and then if he wants to preserve the corrupt status quo on which his privileged position depends, while leftists want to replace that status quo altogether.

Thus Obama is too liberal, from the other direction.

[The Steel Magnolia]

I feel as though we've drifted off topic slightly...

[Khadgar]

I feel as though we've drifted off topic slightly...

Well until we get some decent polls regarding Romney's rather bold choice in running mates there's not a lot to be said. Tactically I think it's a mistake, but we'll see how the numbers run.

[Wamitoria]

I feel as though we've drifted off topic slightly...

What else is new.

Mitt Romney appears to have picked Paul Ryan as his running mate over the objections of top political advisors, offering a glimpse at the leadership style of the Republican nominee in the most important decision of his campaign.

Romney's aides have stressed publicly in the 24 hours since Romney electrified conservatives with his choice that the pick was the governor's alone. They have been less forthcoming on the flip side: That much of his staff opposed the choice for the same reason that many pundits considered it unlikely — that Ryan's appealingly wonky public image and a personality Romney finds copasetic will matter far less than two different budget plans whose details the campaign now effectively owns.

"Everybody was against [Ryan] to start with only Romney for," said one top Republican, who is skeptical of the choice and griped that Romney's top advisors have "been giving Mitt everything he wanted in this campaign."

Romney, his advisor Beth Myers told reporters Saturday, met with a team of about a half-dozen key campaign advisors several times on the issue, and spoke to a wide circle of trusted allies; it's not unusual that there would be differences, or that the instinct of many would be to do no harm, and to keep the campaign focused on the economy and on Barack Obama. Romney's decision to roll the dice himself reflects a different side than often seen of the cautious candidate: A desire to surround himself with people he genuinely respects, and a confidence in his own political judgement.

Ryan spent Sunday on the campaign trail with Romney, helping the candidate draw some of the largest and most enthusiastic crowds of the presidential cycle. He also passed some early tests with flying colors, proving an engaging and comfortable figure under the white hot national spotlight. A media that cast doubts on the basic qualifications of the last Republican running mate, the previously obscure Sarah Palin, to step into the office of the presidency has evinced no such doubts about the Wisconsin congressman, a familiar figure in Georgetown and New York.

Some of the doubters, though, also see warning signals. Congressional candidates in difficult districts and Florida Republicans are not eager to debate Ryan's attachment to converting Medicare into a system of vouchers for workers under 55. The fact that Ryan's push to cut capital gains taxes, which Romney opposes, would reduce the presidential nominees own taxes to nothing has also gotten unwelcome attention.

Another Republican in conversation with the campaign — though not a member of the inner circle of Romney advisers — said the early skeptics tended to be the political professionals, including consultants Stuart Stevens and Russ Schriefer, and pollster Neil Newhouse, while Myers, foreign policy advisor Dan Senor, and ultimately Romney himself favored Ryan. (Those involved declined to shed light on the campaign's most confidential conversations; and others, including Myers, disputed that characterization; she said Saturday she kept her opinion to herself.)

The debate inside the campaign, sources and other media reports said, in fact took into account many of the same concerns about Ryan that were aired publicly.

"Many close aides had been lobbying for the low-risk, nonobjectionable Pawlenty, arguing that the two could run as outsiders taking on Washington," Politico noted Sunday.

And Romney's own aides, in conversations with reporters over the last day, have also made clear that the candidate himself, not his advisors, drove the Ryan choice, something they have put in the context of Romney's forceful leadership.

"He made his decision to select Congressman Ryan," advisor Myers said. "It was his decision alone."

http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/romney-picked-ryan-over-advisors-early-doubts

I'm not all that surprised that the one good decision that the guys in Boston made would be completely ignored by Romney.

[Farnhamia]

I feel as though we've drifted off topic slightly...

What else is new.

Mitt Romney appears to have picked Paul Ryan as his running mate over the objections of top political advisors, offering a glimpse at the leadership style of the Republican nominee in the most important decision of his campaign.

Romney's aides have stressed publicly in the 24 hours since Romney electrified conservatives with his choice that the pick was the governor's alone. They have been less forthcoming on the flip side: That much of his staff opposed the choice for the same reason that many pundits considered it unlikely — that Ryan's appealingly wonky public image and a personality Romney finds copasetic will matter far less than two different budget plans whose details the campaign now effectively owns.

"Everybody was against [Ryan] to start with only Romney for," said one top Republican, who is skeptical of the choice and griped that Romney's top advisors have "been giving Mitt everything he wanted in this campaign."

Romney, his advisor Beth Myers told reporters Saturday, met with a team of about a half-dozen key campaign advisors several times on the issue, and spoke to a wide circle of trusted allies; it's not unusual that there would be differences, or that the instinct of many would be to do no harm, and to keep the campaign focused on the economy and on Barack Obama. Romney's decision to roll the dice himself reflects a different side than often seen of the cautious candidate: A desire to surround himself with people he genuinely respects, and a confidence in his own political judgement.

Ryan spent Sunday on the campaign trail with Romney, helping the candidate draw some of the largest and most enthusiastic crowds of the presidential cycle. He also passed some early tests with flying colors, proving an engaging and comfortable figure under the white hot national spotlight. A media that cast doubts on the basic qualifications of the last Republican running mate, the previously obscure Sarah Palin, to step into the office of the presidency has evinced no such doubts about the Wisconsin congressman, a familiar figure in Georgetown and New York.

Some of the doubters, though, also see warning signals. Congressional candidates in difficult districts and Florida Republicans are not eager to debate Ryan's attachment to converting Medicare into a system of vouchers for workers under 55. The fact that Ryan's push to cut capital gains taxes, which Romney opposes, would reduce the presidential nominees own taxes to nothing has also gotten unwelcome attention.

Another Republican in conversation with the campaign — though not a member of the inner circle of Romney advisers — said the early skeptics tended to be the political professionals, including consultants Stuart Stevens and Russ Schriefer, and pollster Neil Newhouse, while Myers, foreign policy advisor Dan Senor, and ultimately Romney himself favored Ryan. (Those involved declined to shed light on the campaign's most confidential conversations; and others, including Myers, disputed that characterization; she said Saturday she kept her opinion to herself.)

The debate inside the campaign, sources and other media reports said, in fact took into account many of the same concerns about Ryan that were aired publicly.

"Many close aides had been lobbying for the low-risk, nonobjectionable Pawlenty, arguing that the two could run as outsiders taking on Washington," Politico noted Sunday.

And Romney's own aides, in conversations with reporters over the last day, have also made clear that the candidate himself, not his advisors, drove the Ryan choice, something they have put in the context of Romney's forceful leadership.

"He made his decision to select Congressman Ryan," advisor Myers said. "It was his decision alone."

http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/romney-picked-ryan-over-advisors-early-doubts

I'm not all that surprised that the one good decision that the guys in Boston made would be completely ignored by Romney.

Can't you just hear them now?

"Governor, sir ... no, please, sir, not with the nail gun so close to your feet." BAM BAM "Oh, man! Someone get us a copy of Ryan's budget proposals, maybe there's something in them we can run with."

[Khadgar]

What else is new.


http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/romney-picked-ryan-over-advisors-early-doubts

I'm not all that surprised that the one good decision that the guys in Boston made would be completely ignored by Romney.

Can't you just hear them now?

"Governor, sir ... no, please, sir, not with the nail gun so close to your feet." BAM BAM "Oh, man! Someone get us a copy of Ryan's budget proposals, maybe there's something in them we can run with."

Ryan's recent career seems to be following a Republican party checklist for acceptability. The Tea Party lead purge of the GOP has lead to so many falling because they're not conservative enough that Ryan has gone further right. So he's now almost perfectly right, of everyone. I see no reason why that wouldn't cause the Democrats to open fire with both barrels and turn this into a general referendum not only on Romney's shady association with consistency, but on the Tea Party insanity in general.

[Sane Outcasts]

Can't you just hear them now?

"Governor, sir ... no, please, sir, not with the nail gun so close to your feet." BAM BAM "Oh, man! Someone get us a copy of Ryan's budget proposals, maybe there's something in them we can run with."

Ryan's recent career seems to be following a Republican party checklist for acceptability. The Tea Party lead purge of the GOP has lead to so many falling because they're not conservative enough that Ryan has gone further right. So he's now almost perfectly right, of everyone. I see no reason why that wouldn't cause the Democrats to open fire with both barrels and turn this into a general referendum not only on Romney's shady association with consistency, but on the Tea Party insanity in general.

Not just the Tea Party, but the last few years of Republican leadership in the House. Ryan was a major architect of a lot of legislation and participant in the various antics that have dropped public opinion of Congressional Republicans to under 20%.

I'm wondering if Romney was aware of just what he took ownership of when he chose Ryan.

[Farnhamia]

Ryan's recent career seems to be following a Republican party checklist for acceptability. The Tea Party lead purge of the GOP has lead to so many falling because they're not conservative enough that Ryan has gone further right. So he's now almost perfectly right, of everyone. I see no reason why that wouldn't cause the Democrats to open fire with both barrels and turn this into a general referendum not only on Romney's shady association with consistency, but on the Tea Party insanity in general.

Not just the Tea Party, but the last few years of Republican leadership in the House. Ryan was a major architect of a lot of legislation and participant in the various antics that have dropped public opinion of Congressional Republicans to under 20%.

I'm wondering if Romney was aware of just what he took ownership of when he chose Ryan.

He did endorse the Ryan Budget during the debates. Still, you do have to wonder whether he realizes that he does actually own those budgets now. And when I say own, I mean own in the sense that a college coed gets "Ride 'Em, Cowboy!" tattooed on the small of her back in large letters and lurid colors while on a bender during Spring Break.

[Sane Outcasts]

Not just the Tea Party, but the last few years of Republican leadership in the House. Ryan was a major architect of a lot of legislation and participant in the various antics that have dropped public opinion of Congressional Republicans to under 20%.

I'm wondering if Romney was aware of just what he took ownership of when he chose Ryan.

He did endorse the Ryan Budget during the debates. Still, you do have to wonder whether he realizes that he does actually own those budgets now. And when I say own, I mean own in the sense that a college coed gets "Ride 'Em, Cowboy!" tattooed on the small of her back in large letters and lurid colors while on a bender during Spring Break.

Every pundit I've seen calls it the Romney-Ryan Budget now.

Imagine that tramp stamp on Mitt and try to sleep tonight.

[Telesha]

Every pundit I've seen calls it the Romney-Ryan Budget now.

Imagine that tramp stamp on Mitt and try to sleep tonight.

I think I'd rather go back to writing that Mitt Romney jingle that had been trying to form in my head last night...

--

It's almost like Romney is running his campaign like he'd run a brand. Numbers falling? Lack of enthusiasm? Time for a re-branding! Romney 2.0! First the "simplification" and now Ryan...

I keep getting this image in my head of Chi McBride's character from House way back when: the guy that just doesn't quite get that running a hospital isn't like selling a product.

[Wikkiwallana]

Romney's top advisors have "been giving Mitt everything he wanted in this campaign."

That would explain quite a bit.

[Wamitoria]

Every pundit I've seen calls it the Romney-Ryan Budget now.

Imagine that tramp stamp on Mitt and try to sleep tonight.

I think I'd rather go back to writing that Mitt Romney jingle that had been trying to form in my head last night...

Too late.

[Silent Majority]

I think I'd rather go back to writing that Mitt Romney jingle that had been trying to form in my head last night...

Too late.

Now I'm curious as to how masturbation came up in an interview with Romney...

[TomKirk]

Too late.

Now I'm curious as to how masturbation came up in an interview with Romney...

What he was actually saying was "mass debating" but only if you hear it in context would you even guess that.

[Silent Majority]

Now I'm curious as to how masturbation came up in an interview with Romney...

What he was actually saying was "mass debating" but only if you hear it in context would you even guess that.

Ah.


Freud was right I guess.

[Alien Space Bats]

ASB, you mentioned a few months ago that if Romney lost it would likely be blamed on him not being a"true conservative" and the party would run increasingly farther right candidates, but now that Romney has picked a running mate who is about as far-right as you can go, do you think the GOP could learn from a Romney/Ryan defeat, and become more moderate?

No.

The right will simply proclaim that the voters rejected Romney in spite of Ryan's presence on the ticket because he wasn't an Authentic Conservative™, just as they rejected McCain in spite of Palin's presence on the ticket. Unless Authentic Conservatives™ are nominated to both slots on the ticket, disaster will ensue (or so they'll say).

---

This leads me to wonder: If Mitt Romney wins, then Paul Ryan becomes the clear choice for 2020 (regardless of whether Romney wins or loses in 2016). That means that the soonest anybody else can possibly run is 2024.

In 2024, Jim DeMint will be 73; Jeb Bush will be 71; Mike Huckabee will be 69; Michelle Bachman will be 68; Rick Santorum will be 66; Susana Martinez will be 65; Tim Pawlenty will be 64; John Thune will be 63; Chris Christie will be 62; Sarah Palin will be 60. In essence, almost an entire generation of Republican wannabees will have been wiped out by age. Theoretically, Palin, Christie, and Thune might still be able to run, but after that it would be up to the next generation of candidates to carry the standard forward.

The only reason I mention this is because a lot of these people are expected to act as Romney surrogates in this campaign (except for Palin, who will focus on campaigning on behalf of her House and Senate favorites). For people like Bobby Jindal (who will be 53 in 2024), Nikki Haley (who will be 52), and Marco Rubio (who will be 53), going all-out for Romney makes huge career sense; but for the rest (except DeMint, who wants to be Senate Majority Leader someday), a Romney victory pretty much puts a lid on any further career ambitions they might have.

So you have to wonder, especially given how widely disliked Mitt Romney is among top Republicans: Hatred of Barack Obama aside, can these people really be expected to give this fight their all?

[Valourium]

I can't see Romneys chances improving as he continues to make an ass of himself here, there, and everywhere (his "raincoats" comment comes to mind), and the fact is that kids my age, by and large, love the president. He gets on twitter and The Daily Show, he speaks our language and, most importantly, he is capable of evoking emotion, something Robomney is horrible at which continues to bite him in the ass.

What are you talking about? Romney is great at evoking emotion!... Hatred... Anger... Annoyed... and that feeling you get when you have to compulsively facepalm.

[Ardchoille]

Guys, a lot of recent posts belong in the mega-thread. I'm interested enough in the topic to try to help keep it clear for analysis, but I can't be always on your backs. Please listen to each other when someone points out that you're veering off-track.

In the absence of polls, does anyone have any solid stats on, say, advertising buys/type of ads being used/state variations? What sort of ads are being aimed at what specific markets -- any single group/state getting predominantly attack or predominantly policy? Any notable oddities in the women-centred (if any) or Spanish-language ones?

(Not asking anyone to answer these questions, just suggesting some possible areas.)

[Alien Space Bats]

In the absence of polls, does anyone have any solid stats on, say, advertising buys/type of ads being used/state variations? What sort of ads are being aimed at what specific markets -- any single group/state getting predominantly attack or predominantly policy? Any notable oddities in the women-centred (if any) or Spanish-language ones?

I've been trying to chart this on the strategic level, but I agree with Ardchoille: I'd love to hear which ads are running on a State-by-State basis as well.

For my part, I watch very little TV - yet I've seen a blitz of Romney ads on Xfinity (which is the web portal for delayed on-demand rebroadcast of programming from cable providers). I don't know if such programming is tailored to the local market: With a Comcast account, I'm sure that Xfinity can target each particular ad exactly - but I just don't know if they're doing that.

I do know that the Obama campaign is airing large buys on Spanish-language stations, while Romney isn't even coming close in those markets.

[United Dependencies]

But, ASB, could Ryan being insanely conservative (and I mean Bachmann-conservative) be the push that Obama needs to actually win NC back, and make a big enough difference to win? Of course, we will see the VP-announcement bump first, but how big is the chance that the Obama campaign can use this to their advantage to win the seniors vote?

North Carolina will probably be decided by the State's job numbers more than anything else, which are a bit on the iffy side compared to where they were a few years back (States like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and MIchigan with worse job numbers are actually improved from where they were in '09 - which makes it easier for the President to make his case).

No, the real importance of the Ryan pick for Democrats lies in the fact that it now ties the Presidential race to the Congressional one. Whether or not Democrats win North Carolina is irrelevant; whether or not they win the House of Representatives makes all the difference in the world.

No dice, we just got gerrymandered to hell by the republicans.

Seriously, of all the years they had to win, it had to be the year of the census?!

[Vaklor]

tl;dr

[Frisbeeteria]

tl;dr

If you have nothing to add, try not adding anything.