Obama 323, Romney 206 (9 Undecided)
We have a whole slew of polls (10) today:
- In Colorado (9 EV's), three new polls have been released, and they're all over the map. Quinnipiac University's August 6th poll shows Romney leading by 5%; PPP's August 5th poll shows Obama leading by 5%; and Rasmussen's August 6th poll shows the candidates dead even. The average of the three puts the race too close too call; the State moves from "Barely Democratic" to "Exactly Tied".
- In Wisconsin (11 EV's), two new polls (one by Marquette Law School, dated August 5th, and one by Quinnipiac University, dated August 6th), show Obama up by an average of 6%. Interestingly, the two polls also both came in with almost the exact same results, confirming one another. The State slides from "Barely Democratic" to "Likely Democratic".
- In Virginia (13 EV's), two new polls (one from Rasmussen, dated August 7th, and one from Quinnipiac, dated August 6th), show Obama leading Romney by an average of 3%. The President's lead in Virginia, while narrow, still appears steady. The State remains "Barely Democratic".
- In North Carolina (15 EV's), a new poll by PPP, dated August 5th, shows Obama leading by 3%; this contradicts the August 1st Rasmussen poll which had Romney leading by 5% (and thus beginning to lock the State up for the GOP). For now, the Tarheel State remains in play; with a net average 1% lead by Romney between the two polls, North Carolina reverts from "Likely Republican" to "Barely Republican".
- In South Dakota (3 EV's), a July 23rd poll by Nielsen Brothers shows Romney leading by 6%; this represents a slight narrowing of the race from the last Nielsen Brothers poll back in February, in which Romney led by 9%. The State remains "Likely Republican".
- In Georgia (16 EV's), a July 23rd poll by Insider Advantage shows Romney leading by 9%; this also represents a slight narrowing of the race from the previous poll (also by Insider Advantage), taken back in late May. The State shifts from "Strongly Republican" to "Likely Republican".
Obama 326, Romney 212
Essentially, two States have switched sides: Colorado (9 EV's) leaving President Obama's camp to become a toss-up, and Iowa (6 EV's) flipping from Governor Romney's camp to the President's. Beyond that, several States have shifted in the intensity of their support for their preferred candidate, but few of the changes have been dramatic (the largest have been Indiana's 10-point shift towards Romney, followed by 9-point shifts towards the former Massachusetts Governor in New Mexico and Minnesota; in contrast, Obama has enjoyed a 6-point shift in his direction in Iowa, as well as several smaller shifts of 2-4% in his direction within several of the "battleground" States.
What's interesting is to compare where we stand today, just 88 days away from the election, to where we stood back in late April, when this thread began:
Obama 290, Romney 215 (33 Undecided)
The map shown above was from 104 days ago (roughly 15 weeks); the astonishing thing is how little this map has changed in all that time. Arizona (11 EV's) has slid firmly into the Republican camp, as has Missouri (10 EV's), and - as mentioned above - Iowa (6 EV's) has flipped to the Democratic side; the Democrats have also tightened their grip on Michigan (16 EV's) and Pennsylvania (20 EV's). Virginia (13 EV's) and Florida (29 EV's) have shifted towards the Democrats as well, though not enough to make them secure; North Carolina (15 EV's) has shifted towards the GOP, but not enough to take it out of play, either. New Hampshire (4 EV's), OTOH, has drifted Republican and is now in play.
To be sure, most people don't think of the race as really beginning until Labor Day (although I've explained why that sort of thinking os severely outmoded - and seen the rapid pace of attacks by each side on the other these last few weeks prove my position in spades); thus it may seem a little hyperbolic to think of the current pre-Convention "hiatus" as the race's "half-time" (or "All-Star") break. Yet in past races, we've seen a lot of movement between the late spring, when the intra-Party races finally end up getting settled, and the dog days of summer, when the two Parties prepare for their conventions and the fur truly begings to fly. In my first post, I compared late spring results with the final ones. Now I should perhaps compare maps from this date four and eight years ago with their corresponding final results.
Let's start with 2004. The first map is that from August 6th, 88 days before the election; the second is from November 5th, when all of the votes from the November 2nd election had been counted, and the results were official:
The August 6th map was off from the final result by quite a bit, as the slide Kerry underwent as he got "Swift Boated" was still not complete, as well as the fact that the Democrats had just finished their Convention two weeks earlier and therefore their candidate was still enjoying his post-Convention "bounce". Yet look closely at the two maps: While Bush gained or held his ground almost everywhere across the map (Ohio being the sole exception), no State flipped unless the two candidates were less than 5% apart in the August 6th analysis. George W. Bush may well have swung four States (New Mexico, Missouri, Iowa, and West Virginia) worth a total of 28 EV's into his camp, but all were at least in close contention back in the "dog days" of August.
Now let's look at 2008. The first map is from August 8th, (once more) 88 days before the election; the second is from November 20th, when all of the votes from the November 4th election had been counted, and the results were official (it took a long time to confirm that McCain had, in fact, won Missouri by a whisker):
The striking thing here is the shift in color intensity, with both "Red" and "Blue" States "darkening" as they swung towards their preferred Parties; yet more interesting is a near-continuation of the trend we saw in 2004: With one exception, no State flipped unless the two candidates were less than 5% apart in the earlier (in this case, August 8th) analysis.
In his final tally, Obama managed to flip Ohio (20 EV's) and North Carolina (15 EV's) from McCain's camp to his; he also grabbed Virginia (13 EV's), which had been a toss-up in early August; he even grabbed the single EV for Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (which is why Nebraska is now a winner-take-all State agains). The big score, however, was Florida (27 EV's). where Obama swung the State a whopping 9% (he trailed by 6% in Tanebaum's August 8th calculation, but won by 3% in the final tally).
The moral of this story? Well, while it's dangerous to rely on past history - especially when past history is just the last two elections - it seems unlikely that either candidate can really count on swinging any State where his opponent leads by 5% or more (which is essentially the maximum margin of error in the typical Presidential poll). With a lot of effort, a lot of money, and a huge amount of momentum, however, anything is possible.
That brings us back to the importance of outside events: Just as the Crash of '08 profoundly affected the outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election, a major national event of similar importance could still swing this race either way. But barring such an event (or some huge groundswell of support), Governor Romney is in serious trouble. If he is limited to only those States where Obama's lead is less that 5%, then the most he can hope for at this point is to tip Virginia (13 EV's), Florida (29 EV's), New Hampshire (4 EV's), and Colorado (9 EV's) his way - all of which would still leave him losing the race by a 277-261 count.
Tanenbaum's Tipping Point Table displays this very, very clearly. Look at where the tipping point lies to put Mitt Romney over the top: He has to reach into Obama territory and snag at least two of the three States (Iowa [6 EV's], Nevada [6 EV's], and New Mexico [5 EV's]) where Obama now leads by 5% in the State polls. That kind of swing is only going to happen if there's an even broader national surge on Romney's part - and he's only got 12½ weeks to put such a surge together.
