Romney-Obama: Handicapping the Race

[The Emerald Dawn]

To gang-rape the voters, you say? I suspect they'll be outnumbered, and opposed by Johnny Law. Perhaps another strategy is in order.

We're trying to work out a population exchange for our neighbors with New Mexico. NH is the only state Maine borders, so if they go red state, we're isolated, NM is likewise surrounded.

That is some serious climate shock. Serious, serious climate shock.

Also, it wouldn't do to solidify the centre of the map as "Red", because the overall goal is to force the isolated fractious center/south to actually experience something different, and therein force them leftish.

[Alien Space Bats]

Idaho isn't only more-sheep-than-people-land, it's Crazyville!

Remember that the only way to get Idaho to vote blue is to have the Rep. caught raping a prepubescent girl dead kitten while feasting on a dead kitten prepubescent girl's remains, and even then it would be close.

Fixed... maybe.

[Shofercia]

Idaho isn't only more-sheep-than-people-land, it's Crazyville!

well, at least in the sense that its mormon country.

it does have a developing split, though. as boise becomes a real city, it is trending democratic. and the influx of californians is also starting to have an effect. in 2008, a democrat actually managed to win my old congressional district there (we almost pulled it off in 2006, too). of course, the idaho republicans have fixed this for now by redistricting boise so that it and moscow can't team up to outvote the nazis in coeur d'alene and ruin the unified crazy.

Did you just say "team up with Moscow to beat Republicans" did you just say that? HUAC would like a word. They're gone you say, but someone's out there to rekindle the Cold War, and unless you elect the "Wall-Street Bailing Out Pinko Commie Muslim Atheist Anarchist Big Government Type" Obama, the Cold War will be "rightfully" rekindled, and Bain Capital will remarkably end up with no bid contracts after US invades another country, I'm thinking Syria. After all, according to Romney et al, Iraq was a miraculous success!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/washingto ... 62721.html

You're so mean. If you can't be right-wing crazy in Idaho, where the hell can you be right-wing crazy? Look at ASB's map, the Old South is only pink, not deep, American red, even Arizona is looking damned anemic.

Once McCain dies I don't see Arizona staying red.

They're the crazies who voted for McCain in the first place. Maybe massive immigration will help Arizona make the choice that's left circa 2020

Anyways, ASB & others - does Obama have Ohio locked up due to early voting or not? What's going on with that state?

[Arumdaum]

well, at least in the sense that its mormon country.

it does have a developing split, though. as boise becomes a real city, it is trending democratic. and the influx of californians is also starting to have an effect. in 2008, a democrat actually managed to win my old congressional district there (we almost pulled it off in 2006, too). of course, the idaho republicans have fixed this for now by redistricting boise so that it and moscow can't team up to outvote the nazis in coeur d'alene and ruin the unified crazy.

Did you just say "team up with Moscow to beat Republicans" did you just say that? HUAC would like a word. They're gone you say, but someone's out there to rekindle the Cold War, and unless you elect the "Wall-Street Bailing Out Pinko Commie Muslim Atheist Anarchist Big Government Type" Obama, the Cold War will be "rightfully" rekindled, and Bain Capital will remarkably end up with no bid contracts after US invades another country, I'm thinking Syria. After all, according to Romney et al, Iraq was a miraculous success!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow,_Idaho

Moscow tends to be less politically conservative than the rest of the state. In the 2004 Presidential Election, John Kerry out-polled George W. Bush in Moscow 54%-46%. Latah County was 49.5%-48.0% for the Bush/Cheney ticket; the entire state of Idaho went 68%-30% for George W. Bush. In the 2008 Presidential Election, Democrat Barack Obama won Moscow and Latah County 52%-45% while losing statewide 61%-36%. In 2000 Latah county went to Republican George W. Bush 53% to Democrat Al Gore's 36% and Independent Ralph Nader's 6%, The state of Idaho went to Bush 67%, to Gore 27%, with Nader at 2%

[Alien Space Bats]

Anyways, ASB & others - does Obama have Ohio locked up due to early voting or not? What's going on with that state?

I've already hinted that he may well have won: If Marist College is right, Romney will need to win by a 6% margin on Election Day just to overcome the votes already cast, and things are getting worse for him with every passing day.

Of course, the Roberts Court could hand down a ruling eliminating early voting and ordering all votes cast thus far to be thrown out, so there are still other ways for Romney to win Ohio...

---

EDIT: Reuters/Ipsos has Obama's National advantage in early voting at 59-31 (with an eye-popping 10% MOE, mind you). According to the poll in question, 7% of the public has already cast their ballots.

[New Chalcedon]

Anyways, ASB & others - does Obama have Ohio locked up due to early voting or not? What's going on with that state?

I've already hinted that he may well have one: If Marist College is right, Romney will need to win by a 6% margin on Election Day just to overcome the votes already cast, and things are getting worse for him with every passing day.

Of course, the Roberts Court could hand down a ruling eliminating early voting and ordering all votes cast thus far to be thrown out, so there are still other ways for Romney to win Ohio...

---

EDIT: Reuters/Ipsos has Obama's National advantage in early voting at 59-31 (with an eye-popping 10% MOE, mind you). According to the poll in question, 7% of the public has already cast their ballots.

I heard from somewhere - it escapes me where - that military voters are over-represented in early voting. Isn't Romney supposed to be winning 70-30 or so in that department? After all, the military are the most reliable demographic for Republicans.

[Serrland]

Anyways, ASB & others - does Obama have Ohio locked up due to early voting or not? What's going on with that state?

I've already hinted that he may well have one: If Marist College is right, Romney will need to win by a 6% margin on Election Day just to overcome the votes already cast, and things are getting worse for him with every passing day.

Of course, the Roberts Court could hand down a ruling eliminating early voting and ordering all votes cast thus far to be thrown out, so there are still other ways for Romney to win Ohio...

---

EDIT: Reuters/Ipsos has Obama's National advantage in early voting at 59-31 (with an eye-popping 10% MOE, mind you). According to the poll in question, 7% of the public has already cast their ballots.

How do you think the increasing prominence of early voting will impact news networks' (FOX, CNN, MSNBC, etc.) abilities to call a state for one candidate or another early on that Tuesday night? If they have to wait for the actual vote count from all the absentee and early ballots we might be in for a longer night...

[New Chalcedon]

I've already hinted that he may well have one: If Marist College is right, Romney will need to win by a 6% margin on Election Day just to overcome the votes already cast, and things are getting worse for him with every passing day.

Of course, the Roberts Court could hand down a ruling eliminating early voting and ordering all votes cast thus far to be thrown out, so there are still other ways for Romney to win Ohio...

---

EDIT: Reuters/Ipsos has Obama's National advantage in early voting at 59-31 (with an eye-popping 10% MOE, mind you). According to the poll in question, 7% of the public has already cast their ballots.

How do you think the increasing prominence of early voting will impact news networks' (FOX, CNN, MSNBC, etc.) abilities to call a state for one candidate or another early on that Tuesday night? If they have to wait for the actual vote count from all the absentee and early ballots we might be in for a longer night...

Wait....early votes aren't counted when they're received? Wow. You'd think that it'd be one way to reduce pressure on election officials on the night, to have nice neat tallies of the votes received before Election Day.

[The Emerald Dawn]

How do you think the increasing prominence of early voting will impact news networks' (FOX, CNN, MSNBC, etc.) abilities to call a state for one candidate or another early on that Tuesday night? If they have to wait for the actual vote count from all the absentee and early ballots we might be in for a longer night...

Wait....early votes aren't counted when they're received? Wow. You'd think that it'd be one way to reduce pressure on election officials on the night, to have nice neat tallies of the votes received before Election Day.

It is illegal to open/modify the container/or count ballots before polls open on Election Day. (In Oregon, we do mail-in-balloting, so I know this.)

[Inky Noodles]

Remember that the only way to get Idaho to vote blue is to have the Rep. caught raping a prepubescent girl dead kitten while feasting on a dead kitten prepubescent girl's remains, and even then it would be close.

Fixed... maybe.

[Serrland]

How do you think the increasing prominence of early voting will impact news networks' (FOX, CNN, MSNBC, etc.) abilities to call a state for one candidate or another early on that Tuesday night? If they have to wait for the actual vote count from all the absentee and early ballots we might be in for a longer night...

Wait....early votes aren't counted when they're received? Wow. You'd think that it'd be one way to reduce pressure on election officials on the night, to have nice neat tallies of the votes received before Election Day.

I was under the impression that much of the predicting comes through detailed exit polls and many predictions are made without all (or in some cases even most) of the ballots being counted yet. Having so many early ballots could make getting detailed and accurate exit polls a lot harder, meaning we wait longer to hear the actual call. Granted, they're not always 100% accurate when they give a state to a candidate before all the ballots are tallied, but they're damn good at it.

[New Chalcedon]

Fixed... maybe.

They're speaking of the fact that Idahoans would vote for a hatrack, so long as it had (R) engraved into its top.

[The Emerald Dawn]

(Image)

They're speaking of the fact that Idahoans would vote for a hatrack, so long as it had (R) engraved into its top.

[Free Soviets]

Did you just say "team up with Moscow to beat Republicans" did you just say that? HUAC would like a word. They're gone you say, but someone's out there to rekindle the Cold War, and unless you elect the "Wall-Street Bailing Out Pinko Commie Muslim Atheist Anarchist Big Government Type" Obama, the Cold War will be "rightfully" rekindled, and Bain Capital will remarkably end up with no bid contracts after US invades another country, I'm thinking Syria. After all, according to Romney et al, Iraq was a miraculous success!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow,_Idaho

Moscow tends to be less politically conservative than the rest of the state. In the 2004 Presidential Election, John Kerry out-polled George W. Bush in Moscow 54%-46%. Latah County was 49.5%-48.0% for the Bush/Cheney ticket; the entire state of Idaho went 68%-30% for George W. Bush. In the 2008 Presidential Election, Democrat Barack Obama won Moscow and Latah County 52%-45% while losing statewide 61%-36%. In 2000 Latah county went to Republican George W. Bush 53% to Democrat Al Gore's 36% and Independent Ralph Nader's 6%, The state of Idaho went to Bush 67%, to Gore 27%, with Nader at 2%

the moment i realized their 'friendship square' downtown was paved in red bricks, i've wanted to open a bar across the way called lenin's tomb.

but yeah, moscow, ID. home of the university of idaho, and hence a good portion of the PhD holders of the state outside of boise, and a large share of hippies. obama is going to take the county this year too, i assume. whitman county across the border in WA too, probably.

[New Chalcedon]

They're speaking of the fact that Idahoans would vote for a hatrack, so long as it had (R) engraved into its top.

Enter the hatrack himself....

[Inky Noodles]

They're speaking of the fact that Idahoans would vote for a hatrack, so long as it had (R) engraved into its top.

Doesn't that apply to many voter's around the nation today?

[Shofercia]

Did you just say "team up with Moscow to beat Republicans" did you just say that? HUAC would like a word. They're gone you say, but someone's out there to rekindle the Cold War, and unless you elect the "Wall-Street Bailing Out Pinko Commie Muslim Atheist Anarchist Big Government Type" Obama, the Cold War will be "rightfully" rekindled, and Bain Capital will remarkably end up with no bid contracts after US invades another country, I'm thinking Syria. After all, according to Romney et al, Iraq was a miraculous success!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow,_Idaho

Moscow tends to be less politically conservative than the rest of the state. In the 2004 Presidential Election, John Kerry out-polled George W. Bush in Moscow 54%-46%. Latah County was 49.5%-48.0% for the Bush/Cheney ticket; the entire state of Idaho went 68%-30% for George W. Bush. In the 2008 Presidential Election, Democrat Barack Obama won Moscow and Latah County 52%-45% while losing statewide 61%-36%. In 2000 Latah county went to Republican George W. Bush 53% to Democrat Al Gore's 36% and Independent Ralph Nader's 6%, The state of Idaho went to Bush 67%, to Gore 27%, with Nader at 2%

I know that lol. I know there's a St Petersburg in Florida as well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg,_Florida

I even listed the St. Pete's Times Forum as one of my venues on NS Sports. Oh NSG, the place where, no matter how sarcastic I get, there will always be someone to correct me

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow,_Idaho

the moment i realized their 'friendship square' downtown was paved in red bricks, i've wanted to open a bar across the way called lenin's tomb.

but yeah, moscow, ID. home of the university of idaho, and hence a good portion of the PhD holders of the state outside of boise, and a large share of hippies. obama is going to take the county this year too, i assume. whitman county across the border in WA too, probably.

Your club drink should be The Mausoleum

Anyways, ASB & others - does Obama have Ohio locked up due to early voting or not? What's going on with that state?

I've already hinted that he may well have one: If Marist College is right, Romney will need to win by a 6% margin on Election Day just to overcome the votes already cast, and things are getting worse for him with every passing day.

Of course, the Roberts Court could hand down a ruling eliminating early voting and ordering all votes cast thus far to be thrown out, so there are still [i]other ways for Romney to win Ohio...[/i]

---

EDIT: Reuters/Ipsos has Obama's National advantage in early voting at 59-31 (with an eye-popping 10% MOE, mind you). According to the poll in question, 7% of the public has already cast their ballots.

I know you did, I was wondering if there was an update. And I must admit, the italicized part worries me quite a bit, I mean how would that even work? Is this America, or Ireland voting for a Lisbon Treaty, or Ukraine electing a president? (In both cases, Ireland + Ukraine, in part because those in power didn't like how the vote went, a revote was held.) I thought something like this was Unconstitutional in the US, so I'm wondering how that's possible, can ASB, or someone else, clarify?

[Neo Art]

While Florida may have slipped beyond Obama's grasp (save for some significant reversals in the polls) it appears that Virginia and Colorado are ever so slightly clinging blue.

[Zaras]

(In both cases, Ireland + Ukraine, in part because those in power didn't like how the vote went, a revote was held.)

It's not the EU's fault Irish voters can't make up their damn minds.

[New England and The Maritimes]

While Florida may have slipped beyond Obama's grasp (save for some significant reversals in the polls) it appears that Virginia and Colorado are ever so slightly clinging blue.

The 10% of voters who are going Romney-Nelson are fucking with my head...

[Silent Majority]

While Florida may have slipped beyond Obama's grasp (save for some significant reversals in the polls) it appears that Virginia and Colorado are ever so slightly clinging blue.

I still have a hard time believing a ticket with Paul Ryan on it can win in Florida.

[Alien Space Bats]

I wouldn't count Florida out for Obama just yet...

[New England and The Maritimes]

I wouldn't count Florida out for Obama just yet...

I think the Romney-Nelson ticket is just a bit too suspicious, honestly.

[Not Safe For Work]

While Florida may have slipped beyond Obama's grasp (save for some significant reversals in the polls) it appears that Virginia and Colorado are ever so slightly clinging blue.

I still have a hard time believing a ticket with Paul Ryan on it can win in Florida.

There's actually a good reason to feel that way, too. The telephone poll has actually subtly changed in the last few years, due to the increasing prevalence of cell phones, and especially the prevalence of cellphones-as-only-phones.

The problem with cellphone data is that it is prone to geographic inaccuracy, and that it can be demographically misrepresentative. e.g. you cell number might not be in your actual district, kids can have cell phones, older people disproportionately do NOT have cell phones.

It's possible that the last condition mentioned is actually likely to make a difference in Florida - which tends to have the highest percentage senior population, and one of the highest median ages in the US. In other words - given the increasing prevalence of cell phones and the lower incidence of cellphones in the older population - pre-election polls may actually be skewing their samples.

[ALMF]

I don't see how how people are getting 60s and 70s as persentiges:
[url]http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=IVU
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