Romney-Obama: Handicapping the Race

[Zaras]

NC is more likely to stay narrowly Republican - I think it was mentioned way too many pages ago that for this election, the Research Triangle area isn't large enough in population to out-vote the rest of the state.

But how would you explain President Obama winning the state in 2008, then? Population change in other areas of the state?

Oh crap I forgot that.

[Quebec and Atlantic Canada]

NC is more likely to stay narrowly Republican - I think it was mentioned way too many pages ago that for this election, the Research Triangle area isn't large enough in population to out-vote the rest of the state.

But how would you explain President Obama winning the state in 2008, then? Population change in other areas of the state?

A combination of Obama's massive popular appeal and the nationwide feeling of "FUCK YOU FUCK YOU FUCK YOU FUCK YOU!!!!!" towards the Republicans at that time. The same principle can be applied to Indiana.

[Alien Space Bats]

Electoral-vote.com Map (as of October 13th, 2012)



Obama 290, Romney 239 (9 Undecided)

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PLEASE NOTE: NEW POLLS DO NOT YET REFLECT REACTION TO THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE.

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Eight new polls are out today:

• In Florida (29 EV's), two new polls (one by ARG and one by Rasmussen, both dated October 11th) show Romney up by an average of 3%; combining these two polls with three others taken within a one-week look-back window (by Mason Dixon, Marist College, and the University of North Florida) gives the former Massachusetts Governor a net lead of 2%. The Sunshine State remains "Barely Republican".
  
  
• In North Carolina (15 EV's), a new poll by High Point University dated October 10th shows Obama leading by 1%; averaging this poll with Rasmussen's poll from October 9th gives Governor Romney a net lead of 1%. The Tarheel State remains "Barely Republican".
  
  
• In Virginia (13 EV's), a new poll by Rasmussen dated October 11th shows Romney up by 2%; averaging this poll with three others taken within a one-week look-back window (by PPP, Marist College, Quinnipiac University, and Pulse Opinion Research) leaves President Obama with a net lead of 1%. Old Dominion remains "Barely Democratic".
  
  
• In New Hampshire (4 EV's), a new poll by ARG dated October 11th shows Romney leading by 4%; averaging this poll with Rasmussen's poll from October 9th gives the former Massachusetts Governor a net lead of 2%. The Granite State switches over to "Barely Republican" from "Barely Democratic".
  
  
• In Colorado (9 EV's), a new poll by SurveryUSA dated October 10th shows Romney leading by 1%; averaging this poll with four others taken within a one-week look-back window (by Quinnipiac University, ARG, Marist College, and Selzer) puts the two candidates in a dead heat. The Centennial State remains "Exactly Tied".
  
  
• In Michigan (16 EV's), a new Rasmussen poll dated October 11th shows Obama leading by 7%; averaging this poll with the EPIC-MRA poll from October 6th gives the President a net lead of 5%. The Great Lake State mives from "Barely Democratic" to "Likely Democratic".
  
  
• In California (55 EV's), a new poll by Pepperdine University dated October 10th shows Obama up by 21%; averaging this poll with SurveyUSA's poll from October 9th gives the President a net lead of 19%. The Golden State remains "Strongly Democratic".

Surprisingly, no polls have yet been published since the Vice Presidential debate, so the statement I made yesterday...

Sear this map in your brain, because it's the last map whose polls will be entirely unaffected by last night's Vice Presidential debate, just as October 3rd's map represented the last snapshot of the Nation's opinion before that evening's first Presidential debate. I'll lay the October 11th and October 3rd maps side by side in a future post to talk about the total effect of Mitt Romney's victory in that first debate (against the backdrop of the September jobs report, of course), but for now I simply want you to think in terms of what each debate did to the state of the race.

... More properly applies to today's map.

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FOX News has made a big deal over Suffolk University's decision to stop polling in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, using their statement as "proof" that Mitt Romney will win all three States. Frankly, I'm surprised at their decision, as are a great many pollsters; in the Huffington Post's article on the announcement, representatives from other polling organizations are quoted questioning the judgement that these States are, in fact, foregone conclusions.

If you read the fine print on the original statement, you'll see what led David Paleologos, Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, to make the comment in question to FOX's Bill O'Reilly: According to Paleologos, Obama's numbers haven't broken 47% in any of these three States, and as a consequence he doesn't believe that the President can reach 50% in the final tally:

“Before the debate, the Suffolk poll had Obama winning, 46-43, in the head-to-head number [in Florida] -- a poor place to be for a couple of reasons. Number one, his ballot test. His head-to-head number was under 47 before the debate, and it’s very difficult when you’re the known quantity, the incumbent, to claw your way up to 50, so that was a very, very poor place for him to be. And so we’re looking at this polling data, not only in Florida but in Virginia and in North Carolina, and it’s overwhelming.”

This is Dick Morris' logic as well, and you'll hear quite a lot of it on FOX: The "wisdom" at play here is the idea that the undecided vote in an incumbency election always breaks toward the challenger; thus, any poll (State or National) that shows Obama with less that 50% or so at this point means the President isn't going to win that particular (surveyed) race.

The problem here is that such logic assumes that undecided voters only have two choices they can make: They can either vote for Barack Obama or for Mitt Romney. In truth, though, these are not their only choices: Voters can cast their votes for a third party candidate, or not vote for anyone at all.

Traditionally, 1% of American voters cast their ballots for minor party candidates; in 2008, that number rose to almost 1.5%. This year I would not be surprised to see something closer to 2%, if only because this year's crop of minor party candidates represent a better fit with the ideals espoused by the parties that have placed them on the ballot; IOW, if you're the kind of person who might be tempted to vote Libertarian, Green, or Constitution, Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, and Virgil Goode are probably pretty damned fine candidates from your particular perspective. Then, too, Dick Morris' logic ignores a fundamental difference between this year's race and any other recent contest: Romney's Favorability Rating has not been very good; indeed, until the first Presidential debate and barring his brief post-convention bump, the former Massachusetts Governor's favorable/unfavorable balance has been negative all year.

For the moment, it's positive; but we can't assume that it will remain so. Romney remains a gaffe-prone candidate with a way of saying things that alienate would-be voters; if their perception of him is negative on November 6th, it is by no means a given that those who have not made up minds by then will walk into the voting booth and choose to replace a President they know (and generally like) but might not have faith in with a man they basically dislike and distrust.

We'll come back to this idea before next Tuesday's debate, because it's a critical one. But for the moment I'd like to point out the other problems with Dick Morris' logic: First, it ignores the effect turnout has on this election. Republicans (or pro-Republican independents like Morris) continue to operate under the assumption that there is a significant "enthusiasm gap" between the two Parties, and that it favors Republicans; in their eyes, Democrats don't really care if their man wins this election or not. I think that's dead wrong, and as we approach Election Day I suspect that we'll see further proof of that in the polling. If that's true, then low enthusiasm by undecideds vs. high partisan enthusiasm could make it possible for the President to reach 50% in the final tally even without having more that 46-47% support in the polls; in essence, an "enthusiasm gap" between partisans and undecideds might cause much of the undecided vote to get "crowded out" in the final vote totals.

One last comment on Suffolk's decision: I wonder to what extent Paleologos is simply making lemonade out of lemons:

“With just 5 statewide polls left in 3 1/2 weeks, the choice of which states to poll is always shifting... As of last night, there were at least five other states that we felt we must poll, many of which have higher head-to-head numbers (49 percent) for Barack Obama and which are more critical to deciding the national election.”

IOW, David Paleologos has reached the end of his polling budget and pretty much needs to decide where to take his last shots; saying that he doesn't think the race is going to come down to Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia is a convenient way of justifying his decision not to spend any more money there, and take his last five polls somewhere else (like Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Colorado).

[Zaras]

[*]In New Hampshire (4 EV's), a new poll by ARG dated October 11th shows Romney leading by 4%; averaging this poll with Rasmussen's poll from October 9th gives the former Massachusetts Governor a net lead of 2%. The Granite State switches over to "Barely Republican" from "Barely Democratic".

This actually going to last though?

[New England and The Maritimes]

Barack Obama seems to be on track to win Ohio before the 6th. What are the early voting statistics in other states? Can he pull this trick off anywhere else? Is he trying?

[Not Safe For Work]

Barack Obama seems to be on track to win Ohio before the 6th. What are the early voting statistics in other states? Can he pull this trick off anywhere else? Is he trying?

Don't know. I do know that Hannity has been practically in tears about how unjust, voter-fraudy and probably unconstitutional early voting is.

[Cannot think of a name]

Polls right now give me a sad.

[Neo Art]

Polls right now give me a sad.

shut up. Just, just, shut up. There's still 2 debates left! (actually Obama upticked ever so slightly from yesterday)

[New England and The Maritimes]

Polls right now give me a sad.

shut up. Just, just, shut up. There's still 2 debates left! (actually Obama upticked ever so slightly from yesterday)

Romney has peaked right now in popular support. This is his lifetime high, and he's still pretty unlikely to win even if the election were held this exact second.

[Cannot think of a name]

shut up. Just, just, shut up. There's still 2 debates left! (actually Obama upticked ever so slightly from yesterday)

Romney has peaked right now in popular support. This is his lifetime high, and he's still pretty unlikely to win even if the election were held this exact second.

pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease.

[Zaras]

Romney has peaked right now in popular support. This is his lifetime high, and he's still pretty unlikely to win even if the election were held this exact second.

pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease.

If Romney gets more in the popular vote than Obama, we're fucked.

[Salandriagado]

pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease.

If Romney gets more in the popular vote than Obama, we're fucked.

Nah. Due to the distribution of his vote, he can be as high as 5% up in the popular vote and lose.

[Zaras]

If Romney gets more in the popular vote than Obama, we're fucked.

Nah. Due to the distribution of his vote, he can be as high as 5% up in the popular vote and lose.

But lawmakers are fucking idiots: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_P ... te_Compact

[Salandriagado]

Nah. Due to the distribution of his vote, he can be as high as 5% up in the popular vote and lose.

But lawmakers are fucking idiots: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_P ... te_Compact

As of April 2012, the compact has been joined by eight states and the District of Columbia (see map); their 132 combined electoral votes amount to 24.5% of the Electoral College and 49% of the 270 votes needed for the compact to go into effect.

Thankfully, not enough of them to have an effect on this election.

[Zaras]

But lawmakers are fucking idiots: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_P ... te_Compact

As of April 2012, the compact has been joined by eight states and the District of Columbia (see map); their 132 combined electoral votes amount to 24.5% of the Electoral College and 49% of the 270 votes needed for the compact to go into effect.

Thankfully, not enough of them to have an effect on this election.

That, in addition to the states Romney already wins...

[New Chalcedon]

But lawmakers are fucking idiots: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_P ... te_Compact

As of April 2012, the compact has been joined by eight states and the District of Columbia (see map); their 132 combined electoral votes amount to 24.5% of the Electoral College and 49% of the 270 votes needed for the compact to go into effect.

Thankfully, not enough of them to have an effect on this election.

I notice that every single State that has signed on is a blue State....something about shades of 2000, I guess.

[Neo Art]

Thankfully, not enough of them to have an effect on this election.

That, in addition to the states Romney already wins...

No. Those interstate compacts only trigger when enough states join into the pact that their total equals 270 electoral votes or more. Only when a majority's worth of electoral college votes join to the agreement will it become binding.

States that have entered into it aren't stupid, they're not going to give away their electoral vote powers until enough other states are part of the agreement to ensure that the popular vote winner wins electoral college by default. Until that happens, those pacts are not in effect.

[Zaras]

That, in addition to the states Romney already wins...

No. Those interstate compacts only trigger when enough states join into the pact that their total equals 270 electoral votes or more. Only when a majority's worth of electoral college votes join to the agreement will it become binding.

States that have entered into it aren't stupid, they're not going to give away their electoral vote powers until enough other states are part of the agreement to ensure that the popular vote winner wins electoral college by default. Until that happens, those pacts are not in effect.

Shit, missed that part. Damn I suck at reading.

[Alien Space Bats]

Electoral-vote.com Map (as of October 14th, 2012)



Obama 290, Romney 239 (9 Undecided)

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PLEASE NOTE: NEW POLLS MAY NOT YET FULLY REFLECT REACTION TO THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE.

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Two new polls are out today; for the first time, one of these polls (finally) involves sampling after last Thursday's Vice Presidential debate:

• In Ohio (18 EV's), a new poll by PPP dated October 13th shows Obama leading by 5%; averaging this poll with six others taken within a one-week look-back window (by Rasmussen, Marist College, Zogby, ARG, SurveyUSA, and ORC International) leaves the President with a net lead of 2%. The Buckeye State remains "Barely Democratic".
  
  
• In Arizona (11 EV's), a new poll Rocky Mountain Poll dated October 10th shows Obama leading by 2%; realistically, this poll is probably an outlier. Averaging it with PPP's poll from October 3rd gives Governor Romney a net lead of 4%. The Grand Canyon State shifts from "Likely Republican" to "Barely Republican".

We're probably going to have to wait until Monday or Tuesday to see the bulk of whatever effect the Vice Presidential debate had on the race; most of the polls taken after the debate will likely run across the weekend, necessitating their publication on either the eve of or morning before next Tuesday's debate.

[Zaras]

In Arizona (11 EV's), a new poll Rocky Mountain Poll dated October 10th shows Obama leading by 2%; realistically, this poll is probably an outlier. Averaging it with PPP's poll from October 3rd gives Governor Romney a net lead of 4%. The Grand Canyon State shifts from "Likely Republican" to "Barely Republican".

Arizona's probably gonna stay red. It's only gone blue in 1948 and 1996.

[New Chalcedon]

In Arizona (11 EV's), a new poll Rocky Mountain Poll dated October 10th shows Obama leading by 2%; realistically, this poll is probably an outlier. Averaging it with PPP's poll from October 3rd gives Governor Romney a net lead of 4%. The Grand Canyon State shifts from "Likely Republican" to "Barely Republican".

Arizona's probably gonna stay red. It's only gone blue in 1948 and 1996.

Probably, yes, but the Latino vote is a wildcard. Given how the AZ GOP has gone out of its way to antagonise the Latino community (and it is something of a "Community" in Arizona, as I recall), a high Latino turnout - driven by animus toward the GOP - is possible, and may even be high enough to deliver the State to Democrats, especially if the white vote is divided.

[Alien Space Bats]

Electoral-vote.com Map (as of October 15th, 2012)



Obama 290, Romney 239 (9 Undecided)

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PLEASE NOTE: NEW POLLS MAY NOT YET FULLY REFLECT REACTION TO THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE.

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Three new polls are out today; none of these polls involves sampling after last Thursday's Vice Presidential debate:

• In New Mexico (5 EV's), a new poll by Research and Polling dated October 11th shows Obama leading by 10%; averaging this poll with the Rasmussen poll taken back on October 8th gives the President a net lead of 11%. The Land of Enchantment remains "Strongly Democratic".
  
  
• In Idaho (4 EV's), a new Mason Dixon poll shows Romney leading by 36%. The Gem State remains "Strongly Republican".
  
  
• In Georgia (16 EV's), a new poll by the Atlanta Journal dated October 11th shows Romney leading by 8%. The Peach State shifts from "Strongly Republican" to "Likely Republican".

As I said yesterday, we'll probably see a flurry of new polls published today and tomorrow; these polls will give us a better idea of the impact last Thursday's Vice Presidential debate had on the race.

[Shofercia]

Electoral-vote.com Map (as of October 15th, 2012)

(Image)

Obama 290, Romney 239 (9 Undecided)

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PLEASE NOTE: NEW POLLS MAY NOT YET FULLY REFLECT REACTION TO THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE.

Can't say I'm surprised:

I have a feeling that the race will come down to Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Nevada, and quite possibly Colorado are staying Democrat throughout the race. Minnesotta, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, (without Rahm’s Chicago Values,) are also staying Democrat. Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont and Maine are also going to go Democrat, with perhaps New Hampshire being the exception, but that is highly unlikely.

Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, (no longer bleeding,) Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, the Carolinas, and Georgia, (not the one Jessica B thinks about,) are staying Republican.

That’s 266 electoral votes for Obama, and 212 votes for Romney, with Virginia’s (13), Ohio’s (18) and Florida’s (29) Electoral Votes in dispute. One is enough for Obama to win, but Romney needs all three. Anyone recalling the Hayes-Tilden race? Another problem is that all three of the swing states have Republican Governors.

Florida is a very troublesome state, where some Democrats cannot fill out ballots, and some Republicans cannot count them, see the 2000 election for proof. Florida Democrats – when you vote, make sure that you are actually voting for the candidate that you’re voting for, not Pat Buchanan. Yeah, the ballots sucked, but that should’ve been caught at the voting booths. Florida Republicans: 1 + 1 = 2, not whatever Jeb Bush, or whomever is in charge, says it was, ok?

To be honest, Florida’s just nuts! First, Florida was one of the three states in the disputed Hayes-Tilden race, which effectively ended reconstruction and enabled Jim Crow Laws to thrive in the South. Since Romney’s crazier than Obama, I’m predicted Florida for Romney, with the electoral count being: Obama – 266; Romney – 241.

This leaves Virginia and Ohio. The Republicans have a state of the art, well oiled campaign machine in Ohio – can the Democrats stand up to it? Ohio was the state that placed Bush in power in 2004, despite the Iraq War. Diebold also promosed Ohio for Republicans. So, I’m calling Ohio for Romney: Obama – 266, Romney – 259, Virginia – 13.

Thus, whomever wins Virginia, wins the election. Unlike in Ohio, the Republicans do not a well-oiled machine in Virginia, and that’s where Democrats should focus at least half of their funds. Start up community centers, help out youth programs, do whatever it takes, cause as long as Obama takes Virginia, the Democrats retain the presidency. Otherwise, Americans might end up with a Republican version of Boris Yetlsin. Hey, that’s just my two cents and I can be wrong.

But hey:

In Florida (29 EV's), a new poll by Quinnipiac University dated August 21st shows Obama leading by 3%. Averaging this with the two other recent polls from the Sunshine State results in a dead heat between the two candidates. Florida swings back from "Barely Republican" to "Exactly Tied".

In Ohio (18 EV's), two new polls (one by the University of Cincinatti dated August 21st and one by Quinnipiac University on the same date show Obama up by 3% and 6% respectively. Averaging these two polls with the other two from the same time period gives us a net edge of 2% for the President. The Buckeye State remains "Barely Democratic".

As long as Obama wins, it’s all good, but this race is gonna be close!

Also, you guys can see why I hate the damn Electoral College!

That was me on August 25th. October 15th - and we're seeing the same battle states. I'm a bit surprised as to how poorly Obama's doing in Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire, and I'm a bit pleased about how well he's doing in Ohio. Virginia, he's doing ok, especially considering that I predicted him winning that state

About Florida - is anyone really shocked that it might go for Romney? It's Florida! It automatically does the least logical thing when it's time to vote

Although, it looks like Iowa's defying my expectations, but hey, I don't mind that, since it ain't going for Romney. I'm a bit surprised that New England isn't gangbanging New Hampshire, I mean it's red in a sea of blue, maybe the neighboring states can send in pro-Obama agitators.

[Zaras]

In Idaho (4 EV's), a new Mason Dixon poll shows Romney leading by 36%. The Gem State remains "Strongly Republican".

Idaho isn't only more-sheep-than-people-land, it's Crazyville!

[Quebec and Atlantic Canada]

In Idaho (4 EV's), a new Mason Dixon poll shows Romney leading by 36%. The Gem State remains "Strongly Republican".

Idaho isn't only more-sheep-than-people-land, it's Crazyville!

Remember that the only way to get Idaho to vote blue is to have the Rep. caught raping a prepubescent girl while feasting on a dead kitten's remains, and even then it would be close.