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Romney-Obama: Handicapping the Race

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Farnhamia
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Postby Farnhamia » Mon Oct 08, 2012 10:55 am

Alien Space Bats wrote:My suspicion is that Ryan will simply shake the "Etch-a-Sketch" right along with Romney. In a way, he's already been doing this: He's been goinf around saying, in essence, "Governor Romney has his own plan, his own ideas, his own proposals, and whatever I may have said I want, in legislation and in my speeches, is completely and totally inoperative."

IOW, it's going to be exactly like the October 3rd debate: Whatever record the Romney-Ryan ticket may have on the issues no longer exists. Romney and Ryan don't want to kill Medicare, they wants to save it; it's the Democrats who are killing Medicare. Romney and Ryan aren't against banking sector regulation, or environmental regulation, or any other kind of regulation - they want to make it better, that's all. Romney and Ryan aren't going to trim the social safety net; they're just going to stop the Democrats from turning it into a hammock. That's how it's going to go, and anything either Romney or Ryan has said that might contradict this narrative will effectively be, to use Gandalf's pithy retort to Saruman, "unsaid". Per Colbert, put the "Etch-a-Sketch" in the paint can, shake it vigorously, and out comes a fluffy bunny.

(Image)

In a way, lying about your agenda and your record is a kind of rope-a-dope; in fact, it's probably a very effective kind of rope-a-dope. It forces the other campaign to come out and call you a liar, which almost every political consultant urges his team not to do.

Were I on Biden's team, I wouldn't worry about gaffes as much as everybody seems to think they have to; Biden is just not anywhere near as gaffe-prone as people think he is. I'd be expecting Ryan to disavow his past record and to recast Romney was the champion of ice cream and sparkle ponies for everyone, and so I'd flat out patronize him. "You have a reputation as a straight shooter, Paul. It's got to pain you to have to have to set it aside on behalf of someone who rewrites reality as often as Mitt Romney does... Look, Paul, I know how much Mitt wants the world to believe that he has policies of his own and that his choosing you for his running mate is not an endorsement of your policies. But back in August, when he was trying to rally the Republican base, he wanted them to believe the exact opposite; he wanted his own Party to believe that he chose you exactly because of your policies. The thing is, he can't have it both ways: He can't tell his own Party that he supports everything you believe in and then turn around and tell the country he doesn't support anything you believe in; those two things can't both be true at once. So he's either lying to the whole of his own Party when he claims to be a 'severe conservative' and endorses all your policies, or he's lying to the rest of us when he says that he doesn't. Which is it?"

If I were Biden, I'd get that line out early and then whipsaw Ryan for the rest of the night. On every issue, I'd talk about Ryan's record or his statements on the issue, only to make Ryan disavow them in favor of Romney's softer hues - and then I'd patronize Ryan as the poor schmuck who's got to take a bullet for his liar of a boss. "Obviously, in picking you, he wanted Republicans to see him as agreeing with you - but now you're here tonight telling the rest of us he believes something different. It's the same story: Mitt Romney's the political equivalent of MasterCard: He's 'everywhere you want him to be'. He's a demagogue who panders for votes by trying to be all things to all people, so we'll all like him and vote for him. His political strategy is like George Bush's educational strategy: 'No vote left behind'."

And then, towards the end of the night, I'd have Biden ignore Ryan and go straight after Romney. Having pointed out how his position has changed on every single issue there is ("There's not a policy position in America in the last 20 years where Mitt Romney hasn't come out on both sides of that issue"), I'd have Biden summarize by declaring Romney fundamentally untrustworthy: "A man who stands on both sides of every issue is a man who doesn't stand for anything at all. A man who talks out of both sides of his mouth is a man who can't be trusted. And a man who's afraid to tell us what he really thinks - or show us his taxes even when he claims to have paid every dime he owes - is a many with no courage, no backbone. A man like that's a loose cannon, because no one can say what he'll do with power. He's the guy who says, 'Trust me' without ever having established himself as trustworthy, and he's the guy who'll be a complete loose cannon once he comes to power. America - the world - can't afford to have a coward, a liar, a hypocrite, a demagogue, or a loose cannon in the White Hose - and we certainly can't afford to have someone there who's all those things wrapped into one."

In short, Ryan shouldn't be the target; Romney should be the target. Ryan should only be used as contrast and as a springboard to get at Romney and tear him apart, with Biden making certain along the way that the public sees Ryan as some poor bastard who's been roped into defending a man he really doesn't believe in or support. That's how Biden can do the maximum possible amount of political damage to Mitt Romney on Thursday night.

Well said. Biden could take that line of Ted Kennedy's ... "I'm pro-choice. Mitt Romney is multiple choice" ... and work it all night.

As for the President, he should take Jed Bartlet's advice and learn three simple words: "Governor, you're lying." That's all. Romney lied his way through that debate and neither the President nor the "moderator" called him on any of it. Even the NFL replacement refs were face-palming Lehrer's performance.
Last edited by Farnhamia on Mon Oct 08, 2012 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
Make Earth Great Again: Stop Continental Drift!
And Jesus was a sailor when he walked upon the water ...
"Make yourself at home, Frank. Hit somebody." RIP Don Rickles
My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right. ~ Carl Schurz
<Sigh> NSG...where even the atheists are Augustinians. ~ The Archregimancy
Now the foot is on the other hand ~ Kannap
RIP Dyakovo ... Ashmoria (Freedom ... or cake)
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Alien Space Bats
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Re: Romney-Obama: Handicapping the Race

Postby Alien Space Bats » Mon Oct 08, 2012 10:57 am

Electoral-vote.com Map (as of October 8th, 2012)

Image

Obama 332, Romney 206



PLEASE NOTE: NEW POLLS MAY NOT FULLY REFLECT REACTION TO THE SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT.



Just one new polls out today:

  • In Virginia (13 EV's), a new poll by PPP dated October 6th shows Obama up by 3%; averaging this poll with two others taken within a one-week look-back window (by Rasmussen and Marist College) leaves the President up by 2%. Old Dominion shifts back to "Barely Democratic" from "Exactly Tied".
Tanenbaum doesn't list the foregoing poll in his daily post, but it's been included on his map.



EDIT: On this map, Tanenbaum also corrects a mistake he made with yesterday's map, in which Wisconsin's status is based only on the latest poll taken (i.e., PPP's October 6th poll) and not on all three polls taken within the usual one-week look-back window (i.e., the aforementioned PPP poll and two polls from September 30th, one by Zogby and one by Marquette Law School). Averaging all three of these polls together gives President Obama a net lead of 7%, which moves the Badger State back to "Likely Democratic" from "Barely Democratic". That correction is now reflected in the map shown above.
Last edited by Alien Space Bats on Tue Oct 09, 2012 3:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Romney-Obama: Handicapping the Race

Postby Alien Space Bats » Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:09 am

Farnhamia wrote:Even the NFL replacement refs were face-palming Lehrer's performance.

You might be interested in this, from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD):

Moderation of Denver Debate

Oct 5, 2012

The format for the first and fourth presidential debates calls for six 15-minute segments on topics selected and announced in advance by the moderators. After the moderator asks a question, the candidates each have two minutes to answer. After their answers, the moderator's job is to facilitate a conversation on the topic for the balance of the 15 minutes before moving to the next topic. The Commission on Presidential Debates' goal in selecting this format was to have a serious discussion of the major domestic and foreign policy issues with minimal interference by the moderator or timing signals. Jim Lehrer implemented the format exactly as it was designed by the CPD and announced in July.

Translation: The debates are to proceed under Thunderdome rules.

"Team Romney" clearly knows this, and is prepared to sieze control of each debate, shove the moderator aside, and set up the resulting exchange however they want it to be set up (as in "We interrupt you, overrun the time limits so as to stay on the topics we want and push those we don't want off the agenda, and we always get the last word"). So to "Team Obama", consider yourselves warned: You're playing hockey without a referee.
Last edited by Alien Space Bats on Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:12 am, edited 3 times in total.
"These states are just saying 'Yes, I used to beat my girlfriend, but I haven't since the restraining order, so we don't need it anymore.'" — Stephen Colbert, Comedian, on Shelby County v. Holder

"Do you see how policing blacks by the presumption of guilt and policing whites by the presumption of innocence is a self-reinforcing mechanism?" — Touré Neblett, MSNBC Commentator and Social Critic

"You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in."Songwriter Oscar Brown in 1963, foretelling the election of Donald J. Trump

President Donald J. Trump: Working Tirelessly to Make Russia Great Again

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Telesha
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Postby Telesha » Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:20 am

Looking a bit further ahead: how do you think the Obama campaign is going to move against Romney's claims in the foreign policy debates. Romney's already on the attack and trying to set the stage that Obama's policies have only made things worse and made America look weak.

Alien Space Bats wrote:...In short, Ryan shouldn't be the target; Romney should be the target. Ryan should only be used as contrast and as a springboard to get at Romney and tear him apart, with Biden making certain along the way that the public sees Ryan as some poor bastard who's been roped into defending a man he really doesn't believe in or support. That's how Biden can do the maximum possible amount of political damage to Mitt Romney on Thursday night.


Now what are the odds that Biden will actually be able to pull this off?

I agree with you that he's not nearly as gaffe-prone as everyone says. My experiences watching him speak left me wondering where the hell that reputation came from (only to be assured that it's there). But after last week I can't say my confidence level is all that high. I hope that their failure last week lit the proverbial fire under their asses.

Alien Space Bats wrote:Translation: The debates are to proceed under Thunderdome rules.

"Team Romney" clearly knows this, and is prepared to sieze control of each debate, shove the moderator aside, and set up the resulting exchange however they want it to be set up (as in "We interrupt you, overrun the time limits so as to stay on the topics we want and push those we don't want off the agenda, and we always get the last word"). So to "Team Obama", consider yourselves warned: You're playing hockey without a referee.


Does that mean we can check Romney into the wall if he goes over the time-limit?

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Farnhamia
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Postby Farnhamia » Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:28 am

Telesha wrote:Looking a bit further ahead: how do you think the Obama campaign is going to move against Romney's claims in the foreign policy debates. Romney's already on the attack and trying to set the stage that Obama's policies have only made things worse and made America look weak.

Alien Space Bats wrote:...In short, Ryan shouldn't be the target; Romney should be the target. Ryan should only be used as contrast and as a springboard to get at Romney and tear him apart, with Biden making certain along the way that the public sees Ryan as some poor bastard who's been roped into defending a man he really doesn't believe in or support. That's how Biden can do the maximum possible amount of political damage to Mitt Romney on Thursday night.


Now what are the odds that Biden will actually be able to pull this off?

I agree with you that he's not nearly as gaffe-prone as everyone says. My experiences watching him speak left me wondering where the hell that reputation came from (only to be assured that it's there). But after last week I can't say my confidence level is all that high. I hope that their failure last week lit the proverbial fire under their asses.

Alien Space Bats wrote:Translation: The debates are to proceed under Thunderdome rules.

"Team Romney" clearly knows this, and is prepared to sieze control of each debate, shove the moderator aside, and set up the resulting exchange however they want it to be set up (as in "We interrupt you, overrun the time limits so as to stay on the topics we want and push those we don't want off the agenda, and we always get the last word"). So to "Team Obama", consider yourselves warned: You're playing hockey without a referee.


Does that mean we can check Romney into the wall if he goes over the time-limit?

You'd have though that Obama, a lifelong basketball player, would know how to deliver some physicality.
Make Earth Great Again: Stop Continental Drift!
And Jesus was a sailor when he walked upon the water ...
"Make yourself at home, Frank. Hit somebody." RIP Don Rickles
My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right. ~ Carl Schurz
<Sigh> NSG...where even the atheists are Augustinians. ~ The Archregimancy
Now the foot is on the other hand ~ Kannap
RIP Dyakovo ... Ashmoria (Freedom ... or cake)
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Alien Space Bats
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Re: Romney-Obama: Handicapping the Race

Postby Alien Space Bats » Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:42 am

Telesha wrote:Does that mean we can check Romney into the wall if he goes over the time-limit?

I haven't had a chance to watch the debate again on CNN, where male and female reactions were gauged separately by a pair of graphs at the bottom of the screen, but in the main debate thread I observed that men and women responded to Romney's aggression differently: In essence, men responded to it positively, while women viewed it negatively.

In essence, men saw Romney was displaying more "leadership" and "drive", while women thought him "rude" for breaking the rules of the debate and bowling over the moderator.

If the CPD's intentions are indeed to produce debates between aggressively engaged debaters - a "Thunderdome" debate - then "Team Obama' may actually want to consider "losing" the debates if they can do it with class and style. Engaging Romney and Ryan on equal terms - essentially, displaying and measuring erect genitalia - may turn female voters off so completely as to lower turnout among them; if that happens, the results for Democrats up and down the ticket could be disastrous. Right now I'd be looking at the focus group data very closely and trying to pick up on exactly what sorts of gestures and actions are liable to appeal to women, and then fine-tuning future performances to maximize that positive reaction.

The last debate is different: Strength is considered a plus when it comes to foreign policy. But I'd look to emasculate Romney on that score by implying that hyper-male behavior is likely to be produce disastrous results in the world of foreign affairs, where weaker adversaries get even through asymmetrical vengeance rather than baring their throats to the alpha dog.
Last edited by Alien Space Bats on Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:44 am, edited 3 times in total.
"These states are just saying 'Yes, I used to beat my girlfriend, but I haven't since the restraining order, so we don't need it anymore.'" — Stephen Colbert, Comedian, on Shelby County v. Holder

"Do you see how policing blacks by the presumption of guilt and policing whites by the presumption of innocence is a self-reinforcing mechanism?" — Touré Neblett, MSNBC Commentator and Social Critic

"You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in."Songwriter Oscar Brown in 1963, foretelling the election of Donald J. Trump

President Donald J. Trump: Working Tirelessly to Make Russia Great Again

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Telesha
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Postby Telesha » Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:46 am

Alien Space Bats wrote:
Telesha wrote:Does that mean we can check Romney into the wall if he goes over the time-limit?

I haven't had a chance to watch the debate again on CNN, where male and female reactions were gauged separately by a pair of graphs at the bottom of the screen, but in the main debate thread I observed that men and women responded to Romney's aggression differently: In essence, men responded to it positively, while women viewed it negatively.


I caught some of it. What I saw trended pretty much like you're saying. Obama maintained ground or lost it with men, but with women there was usually an uptick over Romney.

The last debate is different: Strength is considered a plus when it comes to foreign policy. But I'd look to emasculate Romney on that score by implying that hyper-male behavior is likely to be produce disastrous results in the world of foreign affairs, where weaker adversaries get even through asymmetrical vengeance rather than baring their throats to the alpha dog.


Hence the Obama's attacks on Romney as reckless. Hmm...here's hoping that the Obama campaign can make up their lost ground at that debate.
Last edited by Telesha on Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Wikkiwallana » Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:47 am

Alien Space Bats wrote:
Farnhamia wrote:Even the NFL replacement refs were face-palming Lehrer's performance.

You might be interested in this, from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD):

Moderation of Denver Debate

Oct 5, 2012

The format for the first and fourth presidential debates calls for six 15-minute segments on topics selected and announced in advance by the moderators. After the moderator asks a question, the candidates each have two minutes to answer. After their answers, the moderator's job is to facilitate a conversation on the topic for the balance of the 15 minutes before moving to the next topic. The Commission on Presidential Debates' goal in selecting this format was to have a serious discussion of the major domestic and foreign policy issues with minimal interference by the moderator or timing signals. Jim Lehrer implemented the format exactly as it was designed by the CPD and announced in July.

Translation: The debates are to proceed under Thunderdome rules.

"Team Romney" clearly knows this, and is prepared to sieze control of each debate, shove the moderator aside, and set up the resulting exchange however they want it to be set up (as in "We interrupt you, overrun the time limits so as to stay on the topics we want and push those we don't want off the agenda, and we always get the last word"). So to "Team Obama", consider yourselves warned: You're playing hockey without a referee.

Can full-contact debating be far behind?
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Postby Farnhamia » Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:49 am

Wikkiwallana wrote:
Alien Space Bats wrote:You might be interested in this, from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD):

Moderation of Denver Debate

Oct 5, 2012

The format for the first and fourth presidential debates calls for six 15-minute segments on topics selected and announced in advance by the moderators. After the moderator asks a question, the candidates each have two minutes to answer. After their answers, the moderator's job is to facilitate a conversation on the topic for the balance of the 15 minutes before moving to the next topic. The Commission on Presidential Debates' goal in selecting this format was to have a serious discussion of the major domestic and foreign policy issues with minimal interference by the moderator or timing signals. Jim Lehrer implemented the format exactly as it was designed by the CPD and announced in July.

Translation: The debates are to proceed under Thunderdome rules.

"Team Romney" clearly knows this, and is prepared to sieze control of each debate, shove the moderator aside, and set up the resulting exchange however they want it to be set up (as in "We interrupt you, overrun the time limits so as to stay on the topics we want and push those we don't want off the agenda, and we always get the last word"). So to "Team Obama", consider yourselves warned: You're playing hockey without a referee.

Can full-contact debating be far behind?

One wonders. Maybe if the moderator was up on the stage, too, between the two of them, and had a long-handled fly-swatter ...
Make Earth Great Again: Stop Continental Drift!
And Jesus was a sailor when he walked upon the water ...
"Make yourself at home, Frank. Hit somebody." RIP Don Rickles
My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right. ~ Carl Schurz
<Sigh> NSG...where even the atheists are Augustinians. ~ The Archregimancy
Now the foot is on the other hand ~ Kannap
RIP Dyakovo ... Ashmoria (Freedom ... or cake)
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Postby Alien Space Bats » Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:50 am

Wikkiwallana wrote:Can full-contact debating be far behind?

I think the Clinton '16 campaign should simply state up front in March or April that the League of Women Voters will run the debates under the old rules, or there will be no debates at all.

<pause>

Please don't kill that poor puppy, CTOAN.
"These states are just saying 'Yes, I used to beat my girlfriend, but I haven't since the restraining order, so we don't need it anymore.'" — Stephen Colbert, Comedian, on Shelby County v. Holder

"Do you see how policing blacks by the presumption of guilt and policing whites by the presumption of innocence is a self-reinforcing mechanism?" — Touré Neblett, MSNBC Commentator and Social Critic

"You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in."Songwriter Oscar Brown in 1963, foretelling the election of Donald J. Trump

President Donald J. Trump: Working Tirelessly to Make Russia Great Again

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Postby Wikkiwallana » Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:52 am

Farnhamia wrote:
Wikkiwallana wrote:Can full-contact debating be far behind?

One wonders. Maybe if the moderator was up on the stage, too, between the two of them, and had a long-handled fly-swatter ...

Aww, but I wanted to see someone defend their capital gains rate plan while trying to escape a choke-hold.
Proud Scalawag and Statist!

Please don't confuse my country for my politics; my country is being run as a parody, my posts aren't.
Dumb Ideologies wrote:Halt!
Just because these people are stupid, wrong and highly dangerous does not mean you have the right to make them feel sad.
Xenohumanity wrote:
Nulono wrote:Snip
I'm a pro-lifer who runs a nation of dragon-men...
And even I think that's stupid.
Avenio wrote:Just so you know, the use of the term 'sheep' 'sheeple' or any other herd animal-based terminology in conjunction with an exhortation to 'think outside the box' or stop going along with groupthink generally indicates that the speaker is actually more closed-minded on the subject than the people that he/she is addressing. At least, in my experience at least.

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Postby Farnhamia » Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:18 pm

Wikkiwallana wrote:
Farnhamia wrote:One wonders. Maybe if the moderator was up on the stage, too, between the two of them, and had a long-handled fly-swatter ...

Aww, but I wanted to see someone defend their capital gains rate plan while trying to escape a choke-hold.

Upper righthand panel
Make Earth Great Again: Stop Continental Drift!
And Jesus was a sailor when he walked upon the water ...
"Make yourself at home, Frank. Hit somebody." RIP Don Rickles
My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right. ~ Carl Schurz
<Sigh> NSG...where even the atheists are Augustinians. ~ The Archregimancy
Now the foot is on the other hand ~ Kannap
RIP Dyakovo ... Ashmoria (Freedom ... or cake)
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Postby Telesha » Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:22 pm

Farnhamia wrote:
Wikkiwallana wrote:Aww, but I wanted to see someone defend their capital gains rate plan while trying to escape a choke-hold.

Upper righthand panel


In a surprise move, the CPD has announced that further debates will be held in a Hell In A Cell format with special guest moderator Triple H...

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Re: Romney-Obama: Handicapping the Race

Postby Alien Space Bats » Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:53 am

Electoral-vote.com Map (as of October 9th, 2012)

Image

Obama 332, Romney 206



PLEASE NOTE: NEW POLLS MAY NOT FULLY REFLECT REACTION TO THE SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT.



Four new polls are out today:

  • In Colorado (9 EV's), a new poll by Rasmussen dated October 7th shows Obama up by 1%; averaging this poll with the Selzer poll taken on October 5th leaves the President with a net lead of 3%. The Centennial State remains "Barely Democratic".

  • In Iowa (6 EV's), a new poll by Rasmussen dated October 7th shows Obama leading by 2%. The Hawkeye State remains "Barely Democratic".

  • In Michigan (16 EV's), a new poll by EPIC-MRA dated October 6th shows Obama up by 3%. The Great Lake State slides from "Likely Democratic" to "Barely Democratic".

  • In North Dakota (3 EV's), a new poll by Mason Dixon dated October 5th shows Romney up by 14%. The Peace Garden State remains "Strongly Republican".
Thus far, post debate polling continues to show a tightening in the race, yet not enough of a tightening to alter the balance within the Electoral College.

This is not the best possible news for Mitt Romney. The tightening of the race is, of course, welcome to the folks in Boston; but if the final result is to still leave the President with a marginal lead in the so-called "swing" States, then the shift is simply not good enough: It means that Romney either needs a second debate victory - which is going to be a whole lot more difficult to manage than the first - an October surprise (which is becoming less and less likely with each passing week; see below), or a major boost from last minute campaign spending.

On the last front, "Team Obama" continues to raise huge amounts of money from Democrats across the country. Republican SuperPAC money is still the 800-lb gorilla in this race, yet the volume of money being raised by the President's re-election campaign directly is significant. First, on a dollar-for-dollar basis, money raised and spent directly by a Presidential campaign can be used to buy air time at rates that are available at a discount by law, so in terms of what that money can buy in actual ads, it provides more "bang for the buck". Second - as I have already discussed - campaigns have the right to bump ads by outside groups with ads of their own; by raising lots of money, the President's campaign has guaranteed itself a measure of "air cover" against the GOP's expected "ad blitz" following the last debate on October 22nd.



All year I have been speculating that Israel will launch a last-minute attack on Iran before the General Election, probably in mid-October. Right now the odds of that happening are looking rather slim: According to Haraatz, recent unrest in Iran over the devaluation of the rial has led Israel to reconsider the possibility that sanctions may yet pursuade Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions; apparently some within the Israeli government, surprised at the turn of events in Iran, are now beginning to walk back from their earlier assessment that sanctions don't have enough of a bite to make the Iranian government change course.

On the other hand, the situation in Lebanon and Syria has worsened. Back in late June and early July, Turkey and Syria appeared to be verging on hostilities; behind-the-scenes intervention by the U.S. and Russia subsequently cooled things off. In the last week, however, matters have begun to deteriorate again; since October 3rd, the two countries have been sporadically lobbing mortar and artillery shells back and forth over the ir shared border. For the U.S., the big danger here is of a wider conflict: After all, Syria is a Russian ally while Turkey is a NATO member. Thus far, combined pressure by Washington and Moscow has kept a lid on matters, but it isn't clear how long such a situation can continue.

The thing is, w/re to the General Election, time is quickly running out for any of these events to play a role in the November 7th vote. Unless something happens in the next four weeks - and as of today that is all the time be have left in this year's political campaign season - it isn't going to have any impact on the Presidential election whatsoever.
Last edited by Alien Space Bats on Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
"These states are just saying 'Yes, I used to beat my girlfriend, but I haven't since the restraining order, so we don't need it anymore.'" — Stephen Colbert, Comedian, on Shelby County v. Holder

"Do you see how policing blacks by the presumption of guilt and policing whites by the presumption of innocence is a self-reinforcing mechanism?" — Touré Neblett, MSNBC Commentator and Social Critic

"You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in."Songwriter Oscar Brown in 1963, foretelling the election of Donald J. Trump

President Donald J. Trump: Working Tirelessly to Make Russia Great Again

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Not Safe For Work
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Postby Not Safe For Work » Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:19 am

Don't know if it's been mentioned:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/onpolitic ... e/1621309/

Pew poll apparently shows Romney with a (geographically apparently non-specific) 4% lead over Obama since the debate.

I'm not attaching too much value to it, personally - if for no other reason than popular vote numbers don't win elections - but it seemed worth mentioning.
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Sane Outcasts
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Postby Sane Outcasts » Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:27 am

Not Safe For Work wrote:Don't know if it's been mentioned:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/onpolitic ... e/1621309/

Pew poll apparently shows Romney with a (geographically apparently non-specific) 4% lead over Obama since the debate.

I'm not attaching too much value to it, personally - if for no other reason than popular vote numbers don't win elections - but it seemed worth mentioning.

CNN dug a little deeper and found that Pew changed their sampling in that poll:

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.


Considering that Gallup ran a poll in the same time period and came up with essentially a tie, as did most of the other post-debate polls released, I'm not giving the Pew poll much weight.

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Alien Space Bats
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Re: Romney-Obama: Handicapping the Race

Postby Alien Space Bats » Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:29 am

Not Safe For Work wrote:Don't know if it's been mentioned:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/onpolitic ... e/1621309/

Pew poll apparently shows Romney with a (geographically apparently non-specific) 4% lead over Obama since the debate.

I'm not attaching too much value to it, personally - if for no other reason than popular vote numbers don't win elections - but it seemed worth mentioning.

Remember something we've been saying all along in this thread: The current imbalance in the popular vote (with the bulk of Romney's support coming from the 22 "McCain" States, where he enjoys massive super-majorities) means that Romney could win the popular vote, possibly by as much as 4-5%, and still lose the Presidential election due to the mechanics of the Electoral College.

I have long defended the Electoral College, and I consider the foregoing result to be a prime example of its fundamental virtue: It should not be possible to win control of the highest office in the land by winning the overwhelming support of a narrow segment of the population. It's better to have a President who enjoys broad support across much of the country than one whose appeal is fundamentally exclusive - and exclusionary - in nature.
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The Amyclae
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Postby The Amyclae » Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:35 pm

Sane Outcasts wrote:
Not Safe For Work wrote:Don't know if it's been mentioned:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/onpolitic ... e/1621309/

Pew poll apparently shows Romney with a (geographically apparently non-specific) 4% lead over Obama since the debate.

I'm not attaching too much value to it, personally - if for no other reason than popular vote numbers don't win elections - but it seemed worth mentioning.

CNN dug a little deeper and found that Pew changed their sampling in that poll:

Responding to the Pew poll, an Obama campaign official pointed to a shift in the party identification percentages used in Pew's mid-September poll compared to the poll released Monday.

The earlier survey was composed of 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 30% independents, while Monday's poll was comprised of 31% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 30% independents.


Considering that Gallup ran a poll in the same time period and came up with essentially a tie, as did most of the other post-debate polls released, I'm not giving the Pew poll much weight.


I think that's not particularly uncommon. Many people, in my experience, has founded their party identification on who they are going to vote regardless if they're technically registered for the other party. If there is a surge for a particular candidate then any poll trying to capture the mood of the country is going to have to show a surge in that candidate's party ID. Otherwise, polling will be forced to focus on the hyper-partisans who see their party identification as something significant... If that makes any sense?

For example, let's say there's 10 people and they're split 6-4 for Obama at the beginning and 7-4 Democrat. Chances are if they split 5-5 after the debate, that person in the middle who switched is going to reidentify as a Republican. A polling firm has to make the decision whether to throw that person's preference out, and pick another less-wishy-washy Democrat, or just go with the new ID breakdown.
Last edited by The Amyclae on Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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The Emerald Dawn
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Postby The Emerald Dawn » Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:43 pm

Alien Space Bats wrote:
Not Safe For Work wrote:Don't know if it's been mentioned:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/onpolitic ... e/1621309/

Pew poll apparently shows Romney with a (geographically apparently non-specific) 4% lead over Obama since the debate.

I'm not attaching too much value to it, personally - if for no other reason than popular vote numbers don't win elections - but it seemed worth mentioning.

Remember something we've been saying all along in this thread: The current imbalance in the popular vote (with the bulk of Romney's support coming from the 22 "McCain" States, where he enjoys massive super-majorities) means that Romney could win the popular vote, possibly by as much as 4-5%, and still lose the Presidential election due to the mechanics of the Electoral College.

I have long defended the Electoral College, and I consider the foregoing result to be a prime example of its fundamental virtue: It should not be possible to win control of the highest office in the land by winning the overwhelming support of a narrow segment of the population. It's better to have a President who enjoys broad support across much of the country than one whose appeal is fundamentally exclusive - and exclusionary - in nature.

This is where I show that I suffer from the dumb.

lolgoogle

Doesn't the Electoral defeat of Gore show that Bush won only because of the overwhelming support of a narrow segment of the population?

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Farnhamia
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Postby Farnhamia » Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:47 pm

The Emerald Dawn wrote:
Alien Space Bats wrote:Remember something we've been saying all along in this thread: The current imbalance in the popular vote (with the bulk of Romney's support coming from the 22 "McCain" States, where he enjoys massive super-majorities) means that Romney could win the popular vote, possibly by as much as 4-5%, and still lose the Presidential election due to the mechanics of the Electoral College.

I have long defended the Electoral College, and I consider the foregoing result to be a prime example of its fundamental virtue: It should not be possible to win control of the highest office in the land by winning the overwhelming support of a narrow segment of the population. It's better to have a President who enjoys broad support across much of the country than one whose appeal is fundamentally exclusive - and exclusionary - in nature.

This is where I show that I suffer from the dumb.

lolgoogle

Doesn't the Electoral defeat of Gore show that Bush won only because of the overwhelming support of a narrow segment of the population?

The conservative justices on the Supreme Court are a pretty narrow segment, it's true.
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Greed and Death
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Postby Greed and Death » Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:51 pm

Atleast Obama won the Xbox live polling.
http://www.geekwire.com/2012/obama-trou ... xbox-live/

Too bad most are too young to vote, and too stoned to remember to vote.
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The Emerald Dawn
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Postby The Emerald Dawn » Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:52 pm

greed and death wrote:Atleast Obama won the Xbox live polling.
http://www.geekwire.com/2012/obama-trou ... xbox-live/

Too bad most are too young to vote, and too stoned to remember to vote.

A demographic that, by and large, is committed to removing government control over media content is voting Democrat? Say it ain't so!

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Khadgar
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Postby Khadgar » Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:54 pm

The Emerald Dawn wrote:
greed and death wrote:Atleast Obama won the Xbox live polling.
http://www.geekwire.com/2012/obama-trou ... xbox-live/

Too bad most are too young to vote, and too stoned to remember to vote.

A demographic that, by and large, is committed to removing government control over media content is voting Democrat? Say it ain't so!



Don't forget the Hot Coffee fiasco where Hillary Clinton sided with Jack Thompson.

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Zaras
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Postby Zaras » Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:55 pm

greed and death wrote:Atleast Obama won the Xbox live polling.
http://www.geekwire.com/2012/obama-trou ... xbox-live/

Too bad most are too young to vote, and too stoned to remember to vote.


A wretched hive of scum, villainy, racism and misogyny supports Obama?

Que. :blink:
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Greed and Death
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Postby Greed and Death » Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:59 pm

Khadgar wrote:
The Emerald Dawn wrote:A demographic that, by and large, is committed to removing government control over media content is voting Democrat? Say it ain't so!



Don't forget the Hot Coffee fiasco where Hillary Clinton sided with Jack Thompson.

Actually Hillary went past Mr. Thompson, Mr Thompson wanted to ban the sale of video games to minors that the Miller Obscenity test found obscene. Hillary wanted to ban the sale of games to minors rated M, by a private video game eating group.

Hillary's rule was more broad and would have resulted in more effectively banned games.
"Trying to solve the healthcare problem by mandating people buy insurance is like trying to solve the homeless problem by mandating people buy a house."(paraphrase from debate with Hilary Clinton)
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