Pro Democracy Riots Erupt in Egypt

[Ununited Smurfs]

It doesn't look good. Other countries in the hood will follow the example of Tunis and Egypt.

At first glance: brilliant! More democracy in that region!

But think twice, in most of these countries the extreme Muslims are not in charge. Odds are high that they will jump in the vacuum. And this will increase the frictions with Israel and the entire West.

Muhammad Hosni Sayyid Mubarak is an asshole, but don't play Russian roulette. He will be replaced by a real badass asshole.

[Alexandraeus]

It doesn't look good. Other countries in the hood will follow the example of Tunis and Egypt.

At first glance: brilliant! More democracy in that region!

But think twice, in most of these countries the extreme Muslims are not in charge. Odds are high that they will jump in the vacuum. And this will increase the frictions with Israel and the entire West.

Muhammad Hosni Sayyid Mubarak is an asshole, but don't play Russian roulette. He will be replaced by a real badass asshole.

Not quite. First off, as already mentioned, Jordan's leader is being responsive immediately. Second, there is no political void in Egypt, there are already many opposition parties, not solely the Muslim Brotherhood. Third, if the middle eastern leaders have learned anything these past weeks, it is that they need to listen to at least a few demands from their people, or there is a good chance of social upheaval.

[The Archregimancy]

The best thing to do would be for the military to oversee an ad hoc election, and intervene against any one entity hijacking this movement.

AKA, the 'Turkish Solution'.

If Egypt's path does indeed entail the military guaranteeing stability and secularism behind the scenes for a number of years, until such time as the primary Islamist party has evolved into a moderate pluralist Muslim Democrat conservative party not much different from a Western European Christian Democrat party - meaning that further military intervention eventually becomes unnecessary, then I think I could live with that.

Just so long as they treat their Orthodox Patriarchs (and I freely admit my bias), whether Eastern or Oriental Orthodox, better than the Turks do....

[Mirkana]

Washington Post

Looks like they're much more civil, and King Abdullah is actually paying attention to their demands. In other words, not that exciting.

Sounds more like he's good at calming down his people by promising allot... We'll see if he can deliver or if it's all talk.

He delivered.

[North Suran]

The same protests are happening in Jordan, but no one is reporting them.

Washington Post

Looks like they're much more civil, and King Abdullah is actually paying attention to their demands. In other words, not that exciting.

On an interesting side-note, Queen Rania of Jordan recently visited my school when she was in Edinburgh to attend the Tattoo. One of the senior teachers had taught her at the New English School in Kuwait. The school even made a charitable donation to the Queen Rania Foundation.

[GeneralHaNor]

Revolution is all and good. What comes after the revolution, though, is key.

Russia, 1917 - Bolshevik dictatorship
Cambodia, 1975 - Khmer Rouge regime
Iran, 1979 - Islamic theocracy
Burma/Myanmar, 1988 - military junta (reshuffled)

Forgive me if I'm not too excited about Egypt's prospects. Sure, Mubarak has to go. But who, or what, is going to replace him?

You never know, they might end up like the USA and become a merchant republic in the guise of a universal democracy.

And it is rather Ironic that most/all revolutions (Apart from the french's? ) tend to end in socially conservative governments.
Even the Zionist colonials are more socially progressive than the Americans.

It's a good thing you put a ? on the whole french thing, because that revolution ended in a Constitutional Military Dictatorship, led by Napoleon Bonaparte

[The Rich Port]

It's amazing how much of that "hippie bullshit from the 60's" seems to ring true today...

I think it's funny how Oswald Mosley was fucking right, and everyone still thinks we Fascists are loonies.

Do you seriously expect me to take a man seriously when he's been grouped in with Jack The Ripper as one of the "10 Worst Britons" by... Well, the British?

Anyhooser, he's fucking hard to understand. Summary and relevance, plz.

I rather like his globalisation speech. Fucking creepy how he called that...

Although a part of me tells me he rather enjoys the money government.

[North Suran]

I think it's funny how Oswald Mosley was fucking right, and everyone still thinks we Fascists are loonies.

Do you seriously expect me to take a man seriously when he's been grouped in with Jack The Ripper as one of the "10 Worst Britons" by... Well, the British?

Anyhooser, he's fucking hard to understand. Summary and relevance, plz.

Oswald Mosley was the hilariously incompetent face of British fascism. He founded the British Union of Fascism in 1932, on the model of Benito Mussolini's National Fascist Party. Whereas the NSDAP jetted to power in the early 1930s and Mussolini's brownshirts successfully marched on Rome, the BUF mainly just pissed around in military uniforms and held frivolous marches - completely failing to have any impact on the British political system or politics in general. Although he did get a glowing obituary from the Daily Mail upon his death in 1980, which just shows that some things never change.

Naturally, since he's a fascist, albeit a totally ineffectual one, GOW has a boner for him. I assume this is why GOW referenced him, even though he is utterly irrelevant to this thread.

[The Rich Port]

Oswald Mosley was the hilariously incompetent face of British fascism. He founded the British Union of Fascism in 1932, on the model of Benito Mussolini's National Fascist Party. Whereas the NSDAP jetted to power in the early 1930s and Mussolini's brownshirts successfully marched on Rome, the BUF mainly just pissed around in military uniforms and held frivolous marches - completely failing to have any impact on the British political system or politics in general.

Naturally, since he's a fascist, albeit a totally ineffectual one, GOW has a boner for him. I assume this is why GOW referenced him, even though he is utterly irrelevant to this thread.

I thought for a second he meant Mosley's globalization viewpoints, but I have no idea what the 5 minute segment is about. Is he slurring in it? I seriously can't for the life of me understand what he's saying.

I referenced the "hippie bullshit" due to the anti-jingoism movement of the 60's.

[EnragedMaldivians]

Washington Post

Looks like they're much more civil, and King Abdullah is actually paying attention to their demands. In other words, not that exciting.

On an interesting side-note, Queen Rania of Jordan recently visited my school when she was in Edinburgh to attend the Tattoo. One of the senior teachers had taught her at the New English School in Kuwait. The school even made a charitable donation to the Queen Rania Foundation.

You're in school? Sorry, you just give off this impression that you're a retired Military officer or something...

I'm going to agree with Fareed Zakaria; Lord Obama should privately cally Moubarak, thank him for his services and urge him to step aside.

What I don't want to see is another tianammen square - not that the army would obey such a command.

At this point, I'm willing to predict that the Muslim brotherhood will not hijack this movement. The comparison to Iran just doesn't work here.

[Charlotte Ryberg]

It doesn't look good. Other countries in the hood will follow the example of Tunis and Egypt.

At first glance: brilliant! More democracy in that region!

But think twice, in most of these countries the extreme Muslims are not in charge. Odds are high that they will jump in the vacuum. And this will increase the frictions with Israel and the entire West.

Muhammad Hosni Sayyid Mubarak is an asshole, but don't play Russian roulette. He will be replaced by a real badass asshole.

I'm waiting for another Mubarak Statement: if he chooses to stand down in a schedule of transition... but the Muslim Brotherhood is going to win if he does, I'm not saying that they are extremist, though.

[North Suran]

On an interesting side-note, Queen Rania of Jordan recently visited my school when she was in Edinburgh to attend the Tattoo. One of the senior teachers had taught her at the New English School in Kuwait. The school even made a charitable donation to the Queen Rania Foundation.

You're in school?

Technically, I never said I was.

Sorry, you just give off this impression that you're a retired Military officer or something...

Explain? I'm genuinely intrigued.

At this point, I'm willing to predict that the Muslim brotherhood will not hijack this movement. The comparison to Iran just doesn't work here.

The comparison doesn't work only to the extent that the Muslim Brotherhood will accede to power democratically, rather than through the revolution. If the caretaker government introduces liberal, democratic reforms, then the Muslim Brotherhood will benefit. If the caretaker government becomes another dictatorship, then it is status quo ante.

[Angleter]

You're in school? Sorry, you just give off this impression that you're a retired Military officer or something...

Yes! Now I'm no longer the NSGer with the most overestimated age:

I thought you were like 30 or something. *Mind spasm*.

[UnitedStatesOfAmerica-]

Rumours are circulating among the media that Hosni Mubarak is preparing to announce his resignation today.

[EnragedMaldivians]

Explain? I'm genuinely intrigued.

Knowledge of military history, pragmatic over idealist, advocation of neo-liberal interventionist views etc etc.

Basically, you just don't strike me as very young. I would not be surprised if you said you had grandchildren.

The comparison doesn't work only to the extent that the Muslim Brotherhood will accede to power democratically, rather than through the revolution. If the caretaker government introduces liberal, democratic reforms, then the Muslim Brotherhood will benefit. If the caretaker government becomes another dictatorship, then it is status quo ante.

Well there's also that the Islamic revolution had a charismatic figure in Khomeni to rally behind; the shah had all but eliminated liberal opposition leaving only the most extreme elements willing to go great lengths to contest his rule. And clerical rule is acceptable only in the Shiite branch of Islam.

25% popular support at most will hardly result in them sweeping the elections; and they're not going to be able to intimidate anyone without the support of the army, which is quite secular. Even if they did, Egypts reliance on foreign aid and tourism revenue will necessitate that they moderate themselves.

Though they will probably play an important role as a king maker faction in whatever government that does emerge.

[North Suran]

Explain? I'm genuinely intrigued.

Knowledge of military history, pragmatic over idealist, advocation of neo-liberal interventionist views etc etc.

Basically, you just don't strike me as very young. I would not be surprised if you said you had grandchildren.

My ability to project an ambiguous age is one of my great characteristics.

Though they will probably play an important role as a king maker faction in whatever government that does emerge.

Which would eliminate the worst-case scenario of a theocratic Islamic Republic, although we would still end up with Egypt gradually sliding further towards religious fundamentalism. If the Muslim Brotherhood can be reined in, then I'm all for toppling Mubarak. Israel won't be happy, and any Brotherhood-influenced government would obviously take a far harder line on the country, but it's the best we can hope for.

[UnitedStatesOfAmerica-]

The USA has officially told Mubarak that he must step down.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld ... 1825.story

Mubarak has responded that he will not seek reelection.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41363935/ns ... tn_africa/

[Kylarnatia]

The USA has officially told Mubarak that he must step down.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld ... 1825.story

Mubarak has responded that he will not seek reelection.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41363935/ns ... tn_africa/

This just gets more tense, and it gets even worse as the foreign community get involved, especially the UK and USA (we're not the best at it; to be fair) and this is just going to create more tention. I think this should be left to the Islamic States, as their way of life is diffrent to ours - in respect.

In the end I can't judge; I just worry for the Egyptian People as a whole.

[Old Tyrannia]

I am surprised I haven't posted here already. I have been following the events quite closely on BBC news and, having recently returned from holiday in Egypt, I can confirm that there is a great deal of hatred for the President there. One of my tour guides made a remark along the lines of, "we're having an election soon. I think everyone should vote for our President, because voting is important and he's the only candidate." It was quite funny at the time- not so much now. I think there is a genuine risk of Egypt being taken over by Islamists, but I'm not sure how long they'd last, considering that Egypt relies heavily on Western support, tourism is a major industry, and the Egyptian people are very proud of their pre-Islamic past, all things that contrast with the Islamist agenda.

Personally, I think Pharaonism is the way forward; of course, Egypt won't entirely abandon it's pan-Arabist ideals, since doing so would mean potentially sacrificing their status as a leader of the Arab world. Really, the three main political groups in Egypt since the monarchy was ousted (Islamic extremism, Egyptian nationalism, and pan-Arabism) have a great deal of overlap. Still, I worry about what will happen if and when Mubarak goes, because besides their hatred for him, the protesters have no common agenda, so we might be looking at civil war (in the worst case scenario, of course). The only thing that's certain is that Mubarak won't go as easily as Ben Ali did.

[Arkinesia]

For example in Iraq, while proclaimed to be "Islamic", there exists a large degree of religious freedom

Other than the part where a Christian pastor from Iraq visited my school and told us the government wants to hunt them down.

[EnragedMaldivians]

Knowledge of military history, pragmatic over idealist, advocation of neo-liberal interventionist views etc etc.

Basically, you just don't strike me as very young. I would not be surprised if you said you had grandchildren.

My ability to project an ambiguous age is one of my great characteristics.

Though they will probably play an important role as a king maker faction in whatever government that does emerge.

Which would eliminate the worst-case scenario of a theocratic Islamic Republic, although we would still end up with Egypt gradually sliding further towards religious fundamentalism. If the Muslim Brotherhood can be reined in, then I'm all for toppling Mubarak. Israel won't be happy, and any Brotherhood-influenced government would obviously take a far harder line on the country, but it's the best we can hope for.

There is only one way that Moubarak has any hope to hold on to power, and that is to turn Tahit square into Tiannamen 2. Two scenarios -

A) Army refuses - in which case, he is toppled anyway.

B) Army obeys - congratulations West; you have won yourself a new generation of terrorists. They will never forgive you.

Moubarak no longer fits into the stability over principle matrix. The best the US can hope to do is to express a concern with to the Egyptian army in case the MB gets overly ambitious.

Where's Ataturk when you need him?

[Kylarnatia]

I am surprised I haven't posted here already. I have been following the events quite closely on BBC news and, having recently returned from holiday in Egypt, I can confirm that there is a great deal of hatred for the President there. One of my tour guides made a remark along the lines of, "we're having an election soon. I think everyone should vote for our President, because voting is important and he's the only candidate." It was quite funny at the time- not so much now. I think there is a genuine risk of Egypt being taken over by Islamists, but I'm not sure how long they'd last, considering that Egypt relies heavily on Western support, tourism is a major industry, and the Egyptian people are very proud of their pre-Islamic past, all things that contrast with the Islamist agenda.

Personally, I think Pharaonism is the way forward; of course, Egypt won't entirely abandon it's pan-Arabist ideals, since doing so would mean potentially sacrificing their status as a leader of the Arab world. Really, the three main political groups in Egypt since the monarchy was ousted (Islamic extremism, Egyptian nationalism, and pan-Arabism) have a great deal of overlap. Still, I worry about what will happen if and when Mubarak goes, because besides their hatred for him, the protesters have no common agenda, so we might be looking at civil war (in the worst case scenario, of course). The only thing that's certain is that Mubarak won't go as easily as Ben Ali did.

True. Thats why the West does have a small right to get involved; though I feel that getting too involved at the moment would just crash it down. I don't trust British Diplomats these days, but as said in my previous post - I shouldn't judge. We all just want to help in the end.

[North Suran]

There is only one way that Moubarak has any hope to hold on to power, and that is to turn Tahit square into Tiannamen 2. Two scenarios -

A) Army refuses - in which case, he is toppled anyway.

B) Army obeys - congratulations West; you have won yourself a new generation of terrorists. They will never forgive you.

Moubarak no longer fits into the stability over principle matrix. The best the US can hope to do is to express a concern with to the Egyptian army in case the MB gets overly ambitious.

I cannot imagine the second scenario coming to pass. Any massacre would only temporarily reduce dissent, at the cost of galvanising the population against the regime. In such a case, Egypt would be consumed by civil war.

If the protests do fail, it will be more likely as a result of the military stepping in to depose Mubarak, only to reconsolidate the dictatorship after popular furore has died down. Egyptian democracy is not a safe bet, even if ElBaradei comes to power and forms a provisional government.

Where's Ataturk when you need him?

Anıtkabir.

Excavate his corpse, jam a stick up his back and place a pair of sunglasses over his eyes and he'll be ready to lead modern Egypt.

[Charlotte Ryberg]

In my opinion, what we need is a fair and balanced democracy typical of Europe and India, which tolerant of all religions, creed and sexual orientation, and full of culture. Constitutional Monarchy with a ceremonial head (anyone who may be except Mubarak) is optional.

[North Suran]

In my opinion, what we need is a fair and balanced democracy typical of Europe and India, which tolerant of all religions, creed and sexual orientation, and full of culture.

An impossibility, I'm afraid. If Egypt becomes a true democracy, than the Muslim Brotherhood will be able to exert its influence, setting Egypt down the path of Islamic-flavoured nationalism. If the Brotherhood is prevented from exerting its influence, then Egypt wouldn't be a democracy.

Also, Indian democracy isn't all it is cracked up to be, but that's for another thread.

Constitutional Monarchy with a ceremonial head (anyone who may be except Mubarak) is optional.

The main problem would be where you acquired the monarch from. The Muhammad Ali dynasty?