Is America in a permanent decline?

[The House of Brent]

At one time the tallest building, the longest bridge, and the largest dam were all American. The U.S. used to have all the world's largest and most successful businesses (AT&T, IBM, etc.) America once had the highest percentage of college graduates, the highest paid workers in the world, The strongest military, great allies, and a huge budget surplus. The U.S. also had many intangible strengths like a sense of community, optimism, and other things. At one time, if it was the biggest and the best then it was American.

The current state of America is very different. It has the largest debt in the world. General Motors is still the largest auto maker in the world, but it recently needed billions of dollars in government aid just to stay in business while Toyota, the 2nd largest auto maker, is still growing and will probably soon pass GM. The manufacturing sector, the source of American power for a century, is shipping jobs to lower wage countries and the failing education system is not training students for the new, high tech jobs of the future. Only 50% of all Americans bother to vote, less in mid-term elections. The U.S. is losing it's leadership in future industries like genetics research and alternative energy. The country is radically divided between Democrats and Republicans and even the idea of bipartisan compromise is given lip service but never actually done. Although it still has, by far, the strongest military on Earth, the situations in which that military power could be usefully utilized are diminishing. America's debt continues to grow as the does the divide between the rich and power. Even the seemingly eternal American optimism seems to be dead or dying in the face of a terrible economic situation and American decline. In almost any area that can make a nation great it seems that the U.S. is declining or failing.

The question is this - is this the permanent end of U.S. greatness? (I define greatness in objective, comparable terms versus other nations - not as an opinion or values/moral judgment.)

The argument for the end of American greatness would probably include many of the facts listed in the second paragraph. On the other hand, it could be argued that, due to the nature of American democracy, all problems have to be so huge that the vast majority of Americans can agree to the nature of the problem. At that point, history shows, that Americans have been very good at uniting and solving the problem. (The British Empire, Hitler, Imperial Japan, Stalin, and Saddam could verify this if they weren't all thrown in the trash bin of history.)

Is this the end of American power/greatness or can the U.S. pull itself out of its seeming decline? What do you think?

[Chrobalta]

Relatively speaking, probably. The fact of the matter is that other nations are going to improve themselves at a far faster rate than America can. So relatively speaking they are becoming more powerful and less susceptible to American influence. America cant grow its GDP at 10% a year like a country with a minuscule GDP.

[New Genoa]

It's too hard to tell right now. The Roman Empire theoretically began to decline once it reached its greatest territorial extent under Trajan, but did not collapse (the western half at least) for 3 more centuries and even then the eastern half last for another thousand years. Then again, countries have gone through declines and resurgences before so..

Although, what I'm more worried about is our ravenous consumption...bio resources are finite and it seems like our consumerism is greatly out-pacing development in renewable resource technologies.

[The House of Brent]

I agree that other countries will grow faster. It's MUCH easier for China and India's smaller economies to maintain a 10% growth rate than it is for the huge American economy to even attain a 5% growth rate. It's also true that after World War 2 the U.S. had the only advanced, industrialized economy that wasn't devastated by the war. It's very easy to be the best when they've destroyed the rest.

For the near future the U.S. will still be the first among equals, but what about the long term? Given it's divisions, it's declining education system, etc., etc, is the sun about to set on the American empire?

[ZellDincht]

Nations rise and fall in power. The U.S. is being passed up by other countries who run different types of governments that allow them to dangle people on the ends of strings. We may see China slow down in the future as their citizens learn more of the U.S.. What I mean by this is the Honda strike. Workers in China work for low wages, and whenever the businesses need them. Recently there was a strike at Honda which is illegal in China. (Also labor unions are illegal.) I expect Taiwan will become the new China because of incidences where the Chinese people will begin to stand up for their wages and worker fariness. ( I do not believe capitalism will fall as Ahmadenijad predicts.) But the U.S. will have to work together to remain a world powerhouse like it has been for the past few decades.

[Illithar]

It's very possible, but unlikely, in my opinion. More likely is that several other countries are going to become more powerful and influential (China and India) and other nations will regain lost power and influence (like Russia) but I don't see any one nation replacing the US as global superpower.

[Utvara]

I can't wait to see America's equivalent of the Crisis of the Third Century.

[New Genoa]

I agree that other countries will grow faster. It's MUCH easier for China and India's smaller economies to maintain a 10% growth rate than it is for the huge American economy to even attain a 5% growth rate. It's also true that after World War 2 the U.S. had the only advanced, industrialized economy that wasn't devastated by the war. It's very easy to be the best when they've destroyed the rest.

For the near future the U.S. will still be the first among equals, but what about the long term? Given it's divisions, it's declining education system, etc., etc, is the sun about to set on the American empire?

This assumes China's growth will be boundless and not implode on itself, which I think could be a distinct possibility.

I can't wait to see America's equivalent of the Crisis of the Third Century.

You want to see massive bloodshed, political instability, and increased poverty?

[The House of Brent]

It's too hard to tell right now. The Roman Empire theoretically began to decline once it reached its greatest territorial extent under Trajan, but did not collapse (the western half at least) for 3 more centuries and even then the eastern half last for another thousand years.

Very true, however, nations live and die faster in the modern world, due to technological advances. It took the British Empire 300 years to reach its zenith, it took the U.S. 100+ years to become the most powerful country in the world (although it wasn't recognized as such in 1900). Rome took centuries to collapse, there were only 50 years between the sun never setting on the British Empire and the dissolution of the British Empire. Japan was devastated in 1945, by 1985 it looked like they were going to buy the U.S. A mere ten years later Japan was economically stagnant despite a rigorous educational system and highly advanced technological capabilities. China, of course, was nothing in 1970, now it seems that Americans should learn Chinese so we are ready when they foreclose on us. And it's entirely possible that China's meteoric rise will end just as suddenly and dramatically.

My point is that if this really is the end of the U.S. then it may be much quicker than the Roman Empire would lead us to believe. The real question though is...is it the end? Obviously, opinions, backed by facts, are what matter here since no one can predict the future.

[The House of Brent]

It's too hard to tell right now. The Roman Empire theoretically began to decline once it reached its greatest territorial extent under Trajan, but did not collapse (the western half at least) for 3 more centuries and even then the eastern half last for another thousand years.

Very true, however, nations live and die faster in the modern world, due to technological advances. It took the British Empire 300 years to reach its zenith, it took the U.S. 100+ years to become the most powerful country in the world (although it wasn't recognized as such in 1900). Rome took centuries to collapse, there were only 50 years between the sun never setting on the British Empire and the dissolution of the British Empire. Japan was devastated in 1945, by 1985 it looked like they were going to buy the U.S. A mere ten years later Japan was economically stagnant despite a rigorous educational system and highly advanced technological capabilities. China, of course, was nothing in 1970, now it seems that Americans should learn Chinese so we are ready when they foreclose on us. And it's entirely possible that China's meteoric rise will end just as suddenly and dramatically.

My point is that if this really is the end of the U.S. then it may be much quicker than the Roman Empire would lead us to believe. The real question though is...is it the end? Obviously, opinions, backed by facts, are what matter here since no one can predict the future.

[Nobel Hobos]

Relatively speaking, probably. The fact of the matter is that other nations are going to improve themselves at a far faster rate than America can. So relatively speaking they are becoming more powerful and less susceptible to American influence. America cant grow its GDP at 10% a year like a country with a minuscule GDP.

That's a really good answer. I'd like to hang some observation about relative versus absolute wealth off it ... but how to keep it short? Never mind...

[Illithar]

It's too hard to tell right now. The Roman Empire theoretically began to decline once it reached its greatest territorial extent under Trajan, but did not collapse (the western half at least) for 3 more centuries and even then the eastern half last for another thousand years.

Very true, however, nations live and die faster in the modern world, due to technological advances. It took the British Empire 300 years to reach its zenith, it took the U.S. 100+ years to become the most powerful country in the world (although it wasn't recognized as such in 1900). Rome took centuries to collapse, there were only 50 years between the sun never setting on the British Empire and the dissolution of the British Empire. Japan was devastated in 1945, by 1985 it looked like they were going to buy the U.S. A mere ten years later Japan was economically stagnant despite a rigorous educational system and highly advanced technological capabilities. China, of course, was nothing in 1970, now it seems that Americans should learn Chinese so we are ready when they foreclose on us. And it's entirely possible that China's meteoric rise will end just as suddenly and dramatically.

My point is that if this really is the end of the U.S. then it may be much quicker than the Roman Empire would lead us to believe. The real question though is...is it the end? Obviously, opinions, backed by facts, are what matter here since no one can predict the future.

The British Empire only fell as fast as it did due to WWII leaving it devastated and broke. Had Hitler stopped a bullet in 1916, we probably would still have a British Empire on which the sun never set.

[The House of Brent]

The Roman Empire theoretically began to decline once it reached its greatest territorial extent under Trajan, but did not collapse (the western half at least) for 3 more centuries....

This brings up another interesting question. For argument's sake, let's assume that this IS the end of American power. In that case, what would have been America's zenith? When would you say that the U.S. reached it's highest peak?

Personally, I would argue for, roughly, 1965. Although there was the Cold War, history has shown that the USSR wasn't nearly as omnipotent a threat as it was imagined to be. We had Camelot, the confidence to "bear any burden, pay any price, to ensure the success of liberty", a huge budget surplus, the dollar was still backed by gold and had "real" worth. A large degree of social cohesion (no Watergate and failure in Vietnam yet). Large, strong, profitable businesses, international fear and respect (depending on whose side you were on), and a great deal of optimism. Etc., etc.

[North Suran]

The question is this - is this the permanent end of U.S. greatness? (I define greatness in objective, comparable terms versus other nations - not as an opinion or values/moral judgment.)

Do bear in mind that America's apex came during the 1950s/60s, when all the other Great Powers had just emerged from a heavily destructive world war that left the USA comparatively unscathed and were busy losing all their former colonies as fast as possible. American power could go nowhere but down after that point.

[Numerika]

Nothing lasts forever, but America has already left its mark like other powerful nations have before.

[The House of Brent]

Do bear in mind that America's apex came during the 1950s/60s, when all the other Great Powers had just emerged from a heavily destructive world war that left the USA comparatively unscathed and were busy losing all their former colonies as fast as possible. American power could go nowhere but down after that point.

With such a commanding lead I would assume that we COULD have kept it far longer than we did. And it's possible that we COULD have built on that lead and increased it. Why did we have nowhere to go but down? Did we just totally waste that lead?

[The House of Brent]

Nothing lasts forever, but America has already left its mark like other powerful nations have before.

I totally agree. The U.S. gave the world the light bulb, radio, TV, motion pictures, rock and roll, jazz, computer networking, and, most importantly, Baywatch.

[Numerika]

Nothing lasts forever, but America has already left its mark like other powerful nations have before.

I totally agree. The U.S. gave the world the light bulb, radio, TV, motion pictures, rock and roll, jazz, computer networking, and, most importantly, Baywatch.

No, better than that a successful experiment in the idea of a liberty driven constitution.

[Wamitoria]

Is America in permanent decline?

No. We've just overextended ourselves. With adequate economic and military reforms, we'll still be a superpower. We'll probably have to share that position with Russia, the EU (as an organization), and Brazil, though.

[New Manvir]

I believe Toyota already surpassed G.M.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive ... nufacturer

[Holy Paradise]

I can't wait to see America's equivalent of the Crisis of the Third Century.

Why would you want to see that?

[Rolling squid]

The British Empire only fell as fast as it did due to WWII leaving it devastated and broke. Had Hitler stopped a bullet in 1916, we probably would still have a British Empire on which the sun never set.

Debatable, but still relevant. America's equivalent of WWII is likely to be the recent recession. The average consumer borrowed himself so far in debt during the housing bubble that he now has very little money to work with, and large debts to pay off. This, in turn, suppresses consumer spending, suppressing consumer spending, suppressing employment, suppressing the amount of money available to the average consumer in a vicious cycle of economic malaise.

[Chrobalta]

I believe Toyota already surpassed G.M.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive ... nufacturer

Quite a while back.

[The House of Brent]

No. We've just overextended ourselves. With adequate economic and military reforms, we'll still be a superpower.

Theoretically, any great power could objectively see its flaws and reform itself. In reality however, that must be rather difficult because all the great powers throughout history have still collapsed at some point. Assuming that the U.S. could actually accomplish a realistic self-assessment, what specific "adequate economic and military reforms" do we need? I agree that over-extension is a mistake we've made, however it would not have caused our political divisions, our under-performing school system, etc.

[Holy Paradise]

The British Empire only fell as fast as it did due to WWII leaving it devastated and broke. Had Hitler stopped a bullet in 1916, we probably would still have a British Empire on which the sun never set.

Debatable, but still relevant. America's equivalent of WWII is likely to be the recent recession. The average consumer borrowed himself so far in debt during the housing bubble that he now has very little money to work with, and large debts to pay off. This, in turn, suppresses consumer spending, suppressing consumer spending, suppressing employment, suppressing the amount of money available to the average consumer in a vicious cycle of economic malaise.

If we were able to make it through the Great Depression, this recession is nothing.