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Will President Obama have a serious Primary Challenge?

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

Will President Obama have a serious primary challenge in the 2012 elections?

Yes.
18
16%
Probable.
14
12%
Maybe or Maybe Not
24
21%
Unlikely.
25
22%
No.
34
30%
 
Total votes : 115

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You-Gi-Owe
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Will President Obama have a serious Primary Challenge?

Postby You-Gi-Owe » Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:40 pm

Question:

Will President Obama experience a serious primary challenge from within his own Democratic Party?

Some time ago, the President made remarks about rather being "a good, one-term President" rather than a mediocre two term President. With the dip below 50% popularity among the "independent voters" by recent polling, he might become a one-term President.

To me, the current situation reminds me of 1976, with Ronald Reagan making a challenge to President Ford, in which the President won the Republican Party nomination.
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The Bleeding Roses
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Postby The Bleeding Roses » Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:42 pm

No.

Primary battle leaves a bad taste in the mouth in the divided party and digs up dirt on both candidates making a weaker gen election run.
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Kaputer
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Postby Kaputer » Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:45 pm

I think Hilary will make a grab for power after Obama makes a foriegn policy blunder and she can say I told him not to do it and that is why I am running.
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Tiesabre
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Postby Tiesabre » Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:46 pm

No Democrat who doesn't want to be out casted from his party would run against Obama.
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Wilgrove
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Postby Wilgrove » Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:47 pm

No, it's unheard of for someone within the President's own party to challenge him in the primary. I mean has that even been done in US Politic History?

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You-Gi-Owe
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Postby You-Gi-Owe » Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:51 pm

Wilgrove wrote:No, it's unheard of for someone within the President's own party to challenge him in the primary. I mean has that even been done in US Politic History?

Yes, it has been done. I cited Reagan vs. Ford in 1976.

Also, as Kaputer, I wonder about Hillary. Perhaps she might be labeled as a "loyal competitor"? "Savior of the Democratic Party"?

We'll see what happens after Nov. 2010, I suppose.
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Maurepas
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Postby Maurepas » Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:55 pm

I seriously doubt it, even if the whole party disagreed with him, they'd still want to win the election, meaning you aren't going to change leadership and admit defeat on his stances.

Though I'm betting on either Hillary or Mary Landrieu to make a run for it in '16.
Last edited by Maurepas on Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Ngelmish
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Postby Ngelmish » Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:56 pm

You-Gi-Owe wrote:Question:

Will President Obama experience a serious primary challenge from within his own Democratic Party?

Some time ago, the President made remarks about rather being "a good, one-term President" rather than a mediocre two term President. With the dip below 50% popularity among the "independent voters" by recent polling, he might become a one-term President.

To me, the current situation reminds me of 1976, with Ronald Reagan making a challenge to President Ford, in which the President won the Republican Party nomination.


It's highly unlikely unless the economy takes a severe turn for the worse. If so, it's just possible that someone will step up, but Obama has been pretty crafty at cutting out the base of support from potential challengers.

And the polls are less significant at the moment than you might suppose. Ignoring the fact that approval ratings always go down in the second year, there's also the fact that the last president to be around this popularity initially was Reagan, and we all know that he was bizarrely deified later.

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Dass Neue Reich
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Postby Dass Neue Reich » Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:59 pm

Wilgrove wrote:No, it's unheard of for someone within the President's own party to challenge him in the primary. I mean has that even been done in US Politic History?


Haha sarcasm haha... You must remember this one law set in stone by Liberals however. Anyone who opposes President Obama for any reason, whether it be they feel they can do a better job with economics, better our immigration problems or just do better in general is a racist. This goes for everyone, conservatives often take the brunt of the liberal name calling, but Im sure any white liberal running against Obama will get the same thing. The only way of running against Obama and winning is being a Young liberal African American Female. A black president can do no wrong according to Liberals. I believe the equation goes Black + Liberal Socialist = Always right. So even if you don't hate Obama for his skin color, but rather for his Liberal agenda you are instantly marked as a racist. I recall one Liberal on CNN saying anyone who didn't vote for Obama was a white supremest and part of an Aryan Militia. I doubt my African American neighbor who had McCain posters in his yard during election time was part of an Aryan Militia.
Last edited by Dass Neue Reich on Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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First of Two
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Postby First of Two » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:03 pm

You-Gi-Owe wrote:Also, as Kaputer, I wonder about Hillary. Perhaps she might be labeled as a "loyal competitor"? "Savior of the Democratic Party"?


Man, that would be the funniest day ever. Especially since it was the Hillary camp that started that whole "Obama is a secret Muslim" thing, even though the crazies on the Republican side grabbed and ran with it later.

They also started the "birther" thing. A lesser-known splinter group called PUMA (Party Unity My Ass) was the first to question Obama's eligibility for the candidacy because of speculation concerning where he was really born.

:rofl:

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Kaputer
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Postby Kaputer » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:05 pm

Actually a perennial candidate/reporter started those rumors he in recent years came to Illinois and ran against my boss Mark Kirk in the Senate Primary and started rumors that he was gay.
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Bramborska
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Postby Bramborska » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:06 pm

Why would anyone put their Presidential hopes on not only beating, in your own party, an incumbent and another contender? It's hard enough winning in a 1 v. 1, why make yourself go through two 1 v. 1's? Especially if you're a Democrat, there's just too many reasons to bet 2012 is the year when Democrats can afford to have two Presidential candidates.
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The Black Forrest
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Postby The Black Forrest » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:07 pm

Maurepas wrote:I seriously doubt it, even if the whole party disagreed with him, they'd still want to win the election, meaning you aren't going to change leadership and admit defeat on his stances.

Though I'm betting on either Hillary or Mary Landrieu to make a run for it in '12.


Indeed.

I can see them running if people continue to loose jobs, houses and unemployment benefits.

It will be interesting to see if they turn to the Repubs or third party. I would be it would be more of a "fuck it; my vote doesn't mean anything so I won't bother" rather then an endorsement of the Repubs......
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South Lorenya
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Postby South Lorenya » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:09 pm

Keep in mind that even George The Incompetent didn't have the slightest risk of losing in the primaries; Obama would have to move from "doing okay" to "doing downright horribly" to have *any* chance of a primary challenge.
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Maurepas
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Postby Maurepas » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:12 pm

The Black Forrest wrote:
Maurepas wrote:I seriously doubt it, even if the whole party disagreed with him, they'd still want to win the election, meaning you aren't going to change leadership and admit defeat on his stances.

Though I'm betting on either Hillary or Mary Landrieu to make a run for it in '12.


Indeed.

I can see them running if people continue to loose jobs, houses and unemployment benefits.

It will be interesting to see if they turn to the Repubs or third party. I would be it would be more of a "fuck it; my vote doesn't mean anything so I won't bother" rather then an endorsement of the Repubs......

Whoops, typo on my part, I meant '16, :oops: :lol2:

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Dass Neue Reich
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Postby Dass Neue Reich » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:12 pm

South Lorenya wrote:Keep in mind that even George The Incompetent didn't have the slightest risk of losing in the primaries; Obama would have to move from "doing okay" to "doing downright horribly" to have *any* chance of a primary challenge.


I would say "doing ok" is a long stretch. But I understand what you're saying.
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Postby Lunatic Goofballs » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:14 pm

It's very rare for a standing President to face a substantial Primary challenge for re-election.
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Postby Soheran » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:20 pm

No. There is no real basis for one. The discontent among Internet liberals is matched neither in polling nor in Congress.

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Postby Risottia » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:23 pm

Dass Neue Reich wrote:The only way of running against Obama and winning is being a Young liberal African American Female.


O'Bama is actually the proof that Irishmen win over anyone else.
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Postby American MapleStory » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:24 pm

There will always be that one person who will think he can do a better job. (From the same pt.)
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Postby SaintB » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:29 pm

Dass Neue Reich wrote: A black president can do no wrong according to Liberals. I believe the equation goes Black + Liberal Socialist = Always right.

You still don't understand.

Firstly; as far as Democrats are concerned Republicans do NOTHING right. As far as Republicans are concerned Democrats do NOTHING right.

And the President IS NOT and I repeat IS NOT a socialist and people need to drop the fucking bullshit if they want to be taken seriously.
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Postby Grave_n_idle » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:29 pm

You-Gi-Owe wrote:Question:

Will President Obama experience a serious primary challenge from within his own Democratic Party?

Some time ago, the President made remarks about rather being "a good, one-term President" rather than a mediocre two term President. With the dip below 50% popularity among the "independent voters" by recent polling, he might become a one-term President.

To me, the current situation reminds me of 1976, with Ronald Reagan making a challenge to President Ford, in which the President won the Republican Party nomination.


It's unlikely that Obama will have serious internal competition, especially if we are still nominally in a state of 'war'.
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North Breifne
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Postby North Breifne » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:29 pm

Kaputer wrote:I think Hilary will make a grab for power after Obama makes a foriegn policy blunder and she can say I told him not to do it and that is why I am running.


Yes, I think that after all of these blunders made by the administration and the little sucess that has ocurred, Hillary will be able to say "I told you so."
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Kaputer
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Postby Kaputer » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:31 pm

North Breifne wrote:
Kaputer wrote:I think Hilary will make a grab for power after Obama makes a foriegn policy blunder and she can say I told him not to do it and that is why I am running.


Yes, I think that after all of these blunders made by the administration and the little sucess that has ocurred, Hillary will be able to say "I told you so."

And she will be able to say I opposed him here, here, and here and he still didn't listen to me that is why I am running against him.
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Dass Alte Reich
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Postby Dass Alte Reich » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:39 pm

Risottia wrote:
Dass Neue Reich wrote:The only way of running against Obama and winning is being a Young liberal African American Female.


O'Bama is actually the proof that Irishmen win over anyone else.


I thought he was Kenyan and Hawaiian American or something. But either way, the only way to out doing an African American Liberal is by being an African American Liberal Female. That's any candidates only hope. It is an undeniable fact that liberals brand everyone against Obama as a racist. The idea of someone hating Obama for his liberal policies is beyond them. Sure their is racism in some southern states and such but I would say the majority of Americans against Obama are just conservatives that don't agree with his policies. I don't want to crush any dreams here, but If you're a white Conservative or even a liberal, don't bother running. No matter how many donations you have made to minority groups...you're already a racist for believing you can do better then Obama.
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