American Politics: Turnabout Trump

[Gran Patria de las Antillas]

well the island does, the only difference is that they don't hold as much power because they are seen as gringo parties.

I can say gringo right?

Are gringos Americans that live in the states but not the territories?

its slang for foreigners but is largely used by Latin America when talking about americans and sometimes canadians

I used it in the connotation of foreigners since Puerto Ricans largely see themselves as Americans as well

[Jolthig]

Unpopular opinion: We can at least reduce chances of a global conflict and cold war for the time being.

Going full speed ahead into fossil fuels with make sure we never have a cold war again.

We really need to find a realistic alternative to fossil fuels lol

[Ifreann]

Going full speed ahead into fossil fuels with make sure we never have a cold war again.

We really need to find a realistic alternative to fossil fuels lol

We already have several.

[Zurkerx]

I don't expect the result to change, I'm just commenting on the collapse of Democratic superwins in states like IL, NY, and NJ. She's only up by 5 in NJ.

I'm not saying you expect the result to change. I'm telling you that the Democratic margins have a lot of scope to improve without the results changing. This depends on how many votes are left to count and where those are going to come from. Let's consider some strong Democratic margin states from 2020:

Stronghold	2016 Margin	2020 Margin	Mean Margin	Counted	Margin	Projected Margin	Mean - Proj	2020 - Proj	Margin - Proj
California	30.11	29.16	29.64	0.60	10.27	17.70	11.94	11.46	-7.43
Colorado	4.91	13.50	9.21	0.82	9.35	11.40	-2.20	2.10	-2.05
District of Columbia	86.77	86.75	86.76	0.94	79.04	83.82	2.94	2.93	-4.78
Illinois	17.07	16.99	17.03	0.92	7.75	14.25	2.78	2.74	-6.50
New Jersey	14.10	15.93	15.02	0.91	4.52	7.38	7.64	8.55	-2.86
New York	22.49	23.13	22.81	0.94	10.85	10.18	12.63	12.95	0.67
Oregon	10.98	16.08	13.53	0.79	9.80	13.01	0.52	3.07	-3.21
Vermont	26.41	35.42	30.92	0.99	31.42	31.38	-0.47	4.04	0.04

Yes there's been a collapse in the margins in some strongholds but it's probably not going to be as pronounced as it currently looks. Of course, that's all relative. That projections for California and New York are just as big a deal as the unprojected figures but Illinois hasn't fallen off any where near as dramatically.

The projections are based on the proportion of additional votes that have broken for Trump/Harris since I made my first table about 22.5 hours ago. Obviously there's a lot of room for these to be very far off.

Looking at the numbers thus far, there is definitely lower turnout in places like NJ and all them. For NJ (my State), Trump thus far has only gotten about 10,000 more votes than he did in 2020. Harris is about 50,000 votes short from Clinton's numbers in 2016 and a whooping 500K short of 2020. Hell, she's 30,000 votes short from Obama's 2012 numbers. I suspect her numbers will improve, but she's looking at a historical low for Democrats:

New York is worse for Harris by what I am seeing, but it does tell me a few things: she did bleed some support, but Democrat turnout was definitely on the lower end, which definitely cost them in some key races too. Had turnout been higher, I think this is a closer election.

Still, it's a shock to Democrats, and one they will surely look at and assess in order to improve the next time. I seriously doubt places like NJ and NY will become Swing States, but Democrats have a lot of work to do to win back key voters and generate greater enthusiasm for their candidates.

[Finium]

The U.S. Democratic Party and American liberals in general should really reflect on why their political tenets are so toxic to ~half the country they've lost twice against Donald Trump, of all people, and what they can do to change that. Ideally, the conclusion will be more conscientious and less self-victimizing than just writing off ~half the country as literal fascists beyond any appeal.

What other conclusion is it possible to draw?

Between 2012 and now, several dozen million new, young voters entered the electorate, and the right-wing online radicalisation got to them first. That's it, end of story. That's just the political landscape that the Democrats need to work in, now. The United States is a democracy, in a democracy the composition of the government reflects the beliefs of the electorate, and what the electorate clearly wants is an [expletive]-grabbing, election-denying fascist. While you can fuddle around the edges of that through clever politicking, there's only so much clever politicking can do.

This is a really, really good point that I don't think should be lost. There are plenty of problems with our political system, but I think most people will agree that it's mostly democratic. The people get what they want whenever they come to a consensus. We have a clear consensus, this is what the people want. On a personal level, this is not what I want, I don't think it's wise or good. But democracy doesn't measure wisdom or goodness, it measure people.

The democratic party doesn't need to do anything to fix itself or move to the right or whatever other solution people have to turn the map blue. We have a democratic system, it's people who have to decide what they want. So if you want something like nationalized healthcare, the people you need to convince are 60% of your neighbors. You can have collectivized healthcare right now in your own town FYI; just convince the people where you live to make it happen. If 80% of the population woke up tomorrow and decided they wanted a parliamentary system instead of our current one, we would get it within a few years. It's really that simple.

Politics is not a game that can be won through clever strategies, it's the aggregate of what people want and believe. It's not fair or balanced--some people have way more influence than you and I do--but at the end of the day people get what they want.

[Celritannia]

[The Black Forrest]

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I liked it. Thanks!

[Imperializt Russia]

It seems like democrats are losing house as well. Senate they already lost.

What a recovery. Not only trump getting 312 electoral votes, senate and house, he got the higher popular vote, puncturing potential protest of “not my president” nonsense.

Still very surprised why none here are questioning the figures of 2020.

Probably there might be good explanation but I am unaware of it.

You do realise that "not my president" doesn't actually mean anything right? Any American who didn't vote for him can say that.

Hell, any Trump voter who feels betrayed by something he does later can say that.

[The Black Forrest]

It seems like democrats are losing house as well. Senate they already lost.

What a recovery. Not only trump getting 312 electoral votes, senate and house, he got the higher popular vote, puncturing potential protest of “not my president” nonsense.

Still very surprised why none here are questioning the figures of 2020.

Probably there might be good explanation but I am unaware of it.

You do realise that "not my president" doesn't actually mean anything right? Any American who didn't vote for him can say that.

Hell, any Trump voter who feels betrayed by something he does later can say that.

Not my President.

[The Black Forrest]

Dan Rather comments:

I wanted to share my daughter Robin's post from this morning:
We can do hard things ( again.) Get up. Shake it off. Don’t panic or isolate. Take care of the young ones who got their hopes up. Encourage their dreams. Lean into your trusted political and social networks and plan how to connect with other adjacent groups quickly and make plans. Organize more deeply than you think we can. Resistance starts now. We know how to do it. We’ve done it before. Visualize our getting through this in the most beautiful and intact way. Please please please just do not give up. We can love and protect each other through this. We have to.

[Imperializt Russia]

Your candidate who is literally against Intellectualism?

Fauci was the most impressive name in the scientific community and he wrecked USA with his decisions on covid. If it was sabotage in favour of Democrats, such intellectuals are even more shameful then.

Except no.

[Benuty]

About 2028, it is definitely Michelle Obama.

i will actually go fucking Berserk by Kentaro Miura if that happens

At this point, why the hell not? I don't know what other person they could run that isn't radioactive at the moment.

[Benuty]

We really need to find a realistic alternative to fossil fuels lol

We already have several.

That will be meandered about by the Trump administration while things get worse and we try to expand the leech that is the fossil fuel industry in the meantime.

[Mettaton-EX]

like everybody else here, i think the lesson that democrats should learn is that they need to adopt every single one of my viewpoints to the letter

[Kaumudeen]

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Ironic coming from a British reporter, considering how many pedos and oligarchs run their country!

[The Grand World Order]

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Ironic coming from a British reporter, considering how many pedos and oligarchs run their country!

I don't think that's actually a published news article, just Celritannia dressing his own post up like one

[Federal Republic of Serov]

WE WON! COPE AND SEETH LIBS!

[Kaumudeen]

Ironic coming from a British reporter, considering how many pedos and oligarchs run their country!

I don't think that's actually a published news article, just Celritannia dressing his own post up like one

It was convincing, written in the smug tone British reporters love to use when talking about other nations. Still my point still stands.

[Ifreann]

like everybody else here, i think the lesson that democrats should learn is that they need to adopt every single one of my viewpoints to the letter

Yeah, well, I think the Democrats should become even more extreme than me! So there!

[Southglory]

You ask it and I will answer.

Alright, I'll bite. If you believe we should move military aid and funding away from Europe, where will it go?

Could go to Asia, or quality of life and domestic manufacturing, tax breaks and more the side of retaining money for stimulating the American economy.

[Kaumudeen]

You ask it and I will answer.

Alright, I'll bite. If you believe we should move military aid and funding away from Europe, where will it go?

Defending against China, which is a bigger threat than Russia, going to funding socialized medicine and education in the US.

[Southglory]

Seems the opposite to me and many others.

You build nuclear weapons for the purpose of not having a nuclear war.

You build defensive alliances so that you won't need to defend anything.

Nato is a threat. And if your enemy calls out your threat, that is already a failure state. You either follow through, in which case you are now fighting a war against Russia that will get lots of Americans killed and possibly lead to nuclear escalation. Or you back down, in which case everyone you've given assurances to now knows how worthless those assurances are and the world order falls apart as every two-bit regional power races to get nukes to defend themselves. There is no winning option at that point, which is why you do not want to be at that point, making that decision in the first place. You accomplish this by making the threat so solid and unyielding that your rivals, like Russia, are firmly convinced that it will never be worth it to call and find out.

Openly saying that you'll protect the allies you think are worth protecting is just begging to get countries like Russia checking which allies those are, exactly.

So making our allies more prone to pitching into their fair share to solidify the threat of their defensive alliance, and maintaining peace.

[Limitata]

People freaking out need to take a deep breath, it's literally happened before and we're fine.

[Southglory]

Seems the opposite to me and many others.

Yes we’re aware that you guys are ignorant about this type of stuff.

I don't think we're ignorant, more so yall don't agree with us.

[Southglory]

I believe I have addressed everything concerning me up to this point.