2023-24 Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran-Houthi Conflict

[SusScorfa]

I'm confused, don't those charts show a larger differential after colonialism was kind of done.

Certainly. Imposing a modern economy on people improves the economy, but letting them manage it themselves is drastically better. But if they don't have a modern economy and refuse to adopt one by copying yours, there's a clear path to take. So it goes for government, society, administration, and culture in general.

The reason the middle east is such a problem is that it has been left out of modernization. Ottoman attempts to modernize and westernize completely flopped but were eventually incorporated into Turkish modernization.

This is why Turkey isn't as much of a problem for the human species as the rest of the middle east, which largely defines itself in opposition to westernization and western norms, and has since the Ottoman era and the arabic nationalist conspiracy theories about how white christians were controlling the ottoman government to cause homosexuality to be legal.

Arab nationalism defines itself as anti-western and always has. It's why they tell such ridiculous lies about the Balfour declaration for example. The middle east is an area where the reactionaries won against the modernizers. It won't fix itself until it has westernized.

They refuse to westernize by choice.

We have historical examples of what to do in this situation, but we refuse to learn from them.

So, despite your data telling you that you are wrong, you assume you are right on this singular occasion because arabs be savages. I think I'll not be continuing this discussion, seems to be veering off-topic and kind of nasty.

[Ostroeuropa]

Certainly. Imposing a modern economy on people improves the economy, but letting them manage it themselves is drastically better. But if they don't have a modern economy and refuse to adopt one by copying yours, there's a clear path to take. So it goes for government, society, administration, and culture in general.

The reason the middle east is such a problem is that it has been left out of modernization. Ottoman attempts to modernize and westernize completely flopped but were eventually incorporated into Turkish modernization.

This is why Turkey isn't as much of a problem for the human species as the rest of the middle east, which largely defines itself in opposition to westernization and western norms, and has since the Ottoman era and the arabic nationalist conspiracy theories about how white christians were controlling the ottoman government to cause homosexuality to be legal.

Arab nationalism defines itself as anti-western and always has. It's why they tell such ridiculous lies about the Balfour declaration for example. The middle east is an area where the reactionaries won against the modernizers. It won't fix itself until it has westernized.

They refuse to westernize by choice.

We have historical examples of what to do in this situation, but we refuse to learn from them.

So, despite your data telling you that you are wrong, you assume you are right on this singular occasion because arabs be savages. I think I'll not be continuing this discussion, seems to be veering off-topic and kind of nasty.

The data doesn't tell me I am wrong. I explained to you the data. Prior to the colonial era, GDP had flatlined. Colonialism imposed a modern economy on much of the world, and for the first time, GDP began to grow. When the societies had been modernized and westernized, and then achieved indepenednce, this was even better.

The tier list is simple.

1. Independent and free westernized peoples.

2. Peoples living under a westernizing government of their own choice.

3. People living under a westernizing autocracy or colony.

4. Non-westernized societies.

If 4 refuse to become 2, the best option available is 3, which leads eventually to 1.

The GDP outcome is one example of the benefits. It applies to practically every facet of society.

A big reason for the problems with the middle east, including their interminable hostility to Israel and its manifestation in constant border raids and low level warfare, is due to this lack of modernization of economic, political, cultural, and social norms. Israeli reactions to that go beyond merely being self-defence, they are a microcosm of the colonial era dynamic for a reason, it is the natural progression of mankind. It's merely that the left has picked the wrong side because they've decided the colonizing powers were the bad guys.

If we examine Afghanistan for example, take a look at the destabilization of their society which a brief occupation by western powers imposing western norms caused, and how they have been confronted with educated women being there now and the impossibility of returning to a previous state of affairs. Imagine if we had done it consciously and deliberately as an uplift program instead, and refused to leave until they demonstrated they had westernized.

Why is that outcome not one we want for the middle east as a whole? It beggars belief that people can honestly tell me they think the Palestinians should be free to... what, be governed by Hamas?

As if that would improve matters? If Palestinians honestly think they're better off with Hamas on their street corner than an IDF soldier, that is merely demonstrating they lack the capacity to make such a decision and need further instruction.

I also think being open about it would improve the moral foundation for Israels occupation of the area, rather than it being this perpetual forever war. "We're here to stop you attacking us", by what, shooting them?

It doesn't work. It doesn't attack the roots, merely the leaves.

Restructure their society. Impose the western order. We know that works.

[Saiwana]

Israel should expand the war into Iran. Iran has given them permission with this missile stunt they pulled today.

[Senkaku]

Israel should expand the war into Iran. Iran has given them permission with this missile stunt they pulled today.

Why set their aims so low? Perhaps they can prove God is on Israel’s side by emulating Alexander’s invasion of India; hell, why not the Moon?

[La Xinga]

Israel should expand the war into Iran. Iran has given them permission with this missile stunt they pulled today.

Why set their aims so low? Perhaps they can prove God is on Israel’s side by emulating Alexander’s invasion of India; hell, why not the Moon?

Make Jewish space lasers become reality.

[Stellar Colonies]

Israel should expand the war into Iran. Iran has given them permission with this missile stunt they pulled today.

Why set their aims so low? Perhaps they can prove God is on Israel’s side by emulating Alexander’s invasion of India; hell, why not the Moon?

The current track record is poor, requires more experience.

[Ifreann]

What's the plan here, Joe? Start a war for Kamala to win and secure a second term? Or just blood for the blood god?

Probably an attempt to YEET Hezbollah.

They haven't destroyed Hamas yet, but sure, set them on Hezbollah as well, that's sure to work out. Take Iran on too.

One shudders to imagine the state the world would descend to if Iran were permitted to conduct such rampant slaughter with impunity.

We have let Iran engage in rampant slaughter with impunity.

lol
lmao

[Past beans]

Holy shit Iran bombed Israel.

[Fahran]

Mohammad VI, lol

He's doing better at Jewish-Arab reconciliation than any other Arab leader at this point.

So land transfers are good unless Palestinians get land transferred to them in which case it is bad?

The expectation that Israel should accept an unfavorable peace settlement when it has won and continues to win the frozen conflict is a bit silly. You made a point of bringing up international law and I told you what the most practical and effective implementation of said international law was.

So are you actually arguing that the six day war was actually the same as the 1948 war just so you can keep pretending Israel didn’t start it?

Israel didn't start it. Israel responded to mass-mobilization and acts of war against it - in the context of persistent and unrelenting raids by Palestinian irregulars operating in Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria. You do not appear to have a problem with Palestinian militias continuously attacking Israel with revanchist aims.

What? I genuinely don’t get the point you are trying to make here. Are you saying that Syria and the Palestinians deserved to have their land stolen?

I'm saying that repeatedly launching aggressive wars with the intention of claiming territory, in a context where you deliberately leave political boundaries uncertain, has the potential to result in you losing territory in turn. How much territory do you think Syria, Egypt, Jordan, or Palestine would have ceded to Israel if they had managed to capture anything?

Faisal died of a heart attack? And if you are saying that the majority of Arabs didn’t negotiate in good faith, I could say the same for the majority of Jews.

King Faisal of Iraq and Syria is somehow less relevant than who I believed you were talking about - Abdullah I of Transjordan. I have no idea why you would bring him up in the context of the Mandate of Palestine given it was implemented following the rejection of the Sharifian solution. But the point is that Husseini's faction was never interested in negotiating and represented the bulk of Palestinian leadership after 1929.

[Fahran]

Holy shit Iran bombed Israel.

No fatalities reported at this time, but it's estimated that over two hundred missiles were launched.

EDIT: Scratch that. A Palestinian man was killed by falling shrapnel/debris in the West Bank. Which is probably part of why Jordan shot down missiles over its own airspace previously.

[Fahran]

They haven't destroyed Hamas yet, but sure, set them on Hezbollah as well, that's sure to work out. Take Iran on too.

I didn't say it was a good plan.

lol
lmao

I made an entire thread dedicated to this. Iran has been murdering its own citizens for the past three years and has fought multiple proxy wars that led to the deaths of over 750,000 people. And we have danced between normalization and sanctions.

[Ifreann]

They haven't destroyed Hamas yet, but sure, set them on Hezbollah as well, that's sure to work out. Take Iran on too.

I didn't say it was a good plan.

lol
lmao

I made an entire thread dedicated to this. Iran has been murdering its own citizens for the past three years and has fought multiple proxy wars that led to the deaths of over 750,000 people. And we have danced between normalization and sanctions.

Sanctions.

Impunity.

Hmmmm.

[Fahran]

Sanctions.

Impunity.

Hmmmm.

It has not stopped the bloodletting.

[Ifreann]

Sanctions.

Impunity.

Hmmmm.

It has not stopped the bloodletting.

So to recap, by "We have let Iran engage in rampant slaughter with impunity", you meant "We haven't let Iran engage in rampant slaughter with impunity, but nevertheless!"

[Omphalos]

That caused little or no reported damage, and three casualties, and many weapons were intercepted.

There used to be a concept called "take the win".

I personally wouldn't want to live next to civilizations that conduct constant border raids. Elwher is right. Israel has a mandate to invade and pacify most of its neighbors because they are completely uncivilized territories in an extremely classic sense, in that they cannot abide by ordinary international order as lawful states.

Defending them doing so because it's "not that big a deal" is missing the point.

There also used to be a concept called "Civilize the savage", but the left doesn't want to admit that it was a necessary period for mankind. If these countries don't learn to stop launching constant low scale attacks after being bombed to fuck for doing it and cry about how we're victimizing them, then they must simply be colonized and rehabilitated into being lawful actors. Acting appalled about how that would require violently suppressing the prisoner throwing a tantrum and constantly trying to escape so they can keep doing crimes entirely misses the point.

"All he does is punch people every day. How can that possibly justify you deciding to throw him in a cage? And he only keeps trying to shiv the guards because you put him in the cage, and now you're escalating to beating him with truncheons! You're the bad guys here! The punches weren't even that hard!".

I'm shocked, shocked I tell you, that the guy who's convinced feminism is about hurting man is a fan of "the white man's burden."

[Fahran]

So to recap, by "We have let Iran engage in rampant slaughter with impunity", you meant "We haven't let Iran engage in rampant slaughter with impunity, but nevertheless!"

We haven't halted them or imposed measures that would halt them. It's not inaccurate to say that they have engaged in rampant slaughter with impunity.

[Infected Mushroom]

Are you telling me Israel shot down all 100 ballistic missiles? Not one of them struck a military target?

Jesus.

[Europa Undivided]

Are you telling me Israel shot down all 100 ballistic missiles? Not one of them struck a military target?

Jesus.

They were either shot down or in the case of those landing in unpopulated areas, simply ignored.

Just another token Iranian response for the sake of saying "We're actually doing something, look!", I guess.

[Fahran]

Are you telling me Israel shot down all 100 ballistic missiles? Not one of them struck a military target?

Jesus.

About 180 missiles.

It's quite possible it was intended as a symbolic strike, not unlike the one back in April. That said, given civilian targets were placed at risk and the one confirmed fatality at this point was a Palestinian man in the West Bank, I'm not certain they were even targeting military installations or assets.

[Europa Undivided]

Are you telling me Israel shot down all 100 ballistic missiles? Not one of them struck a military target?

Jesus.

About 180 missiles.

It's quite possible it was intended as a symbolic strike, not unlike the one back in April. That said, given civilian targets were placed at risk and the one confirmed fatality at this point was a Palestinian man in the West Bank, I'm not certain they were even targeting military installations or assets.

Probably all completely random targeting. The Israeli "area under threat from missiles" app, EASes, just put pins literally everywhere in the country along with the West Bank and Golan.

[Jibjibistan]

apparently two Israeli airbases were impacted, Israel has not yet commented on the damage

[La Xinga]

Are you telling me Israel shot down all 100 ballistic missiles? Not one of them struck a military target?

Jesus.

They were either shot down or in the case of those landing in unpopulated areas, simply ignored.

Just another token Iranian response for the sake of saying "We're actually doing something, look!", I guess.

They did manage to free a Palestinian though ... from life.

[Kerwa]

apparently two Israeli airbases were impacted, Israel has not yet commented on the damage

They aren’t going to do Iran’s battle damage assessment for them.

[Siamese People Republics]

They haven't destroyed Hamas yet, but sure, set them on Hezbollah as well, that's sure to work out. Take Iran on too.

I didn't say it was a good plan.

"I didn't say it was good, but it was pretty great"

[Fahran]

"I didn't say it was good, but it was pretty great"

Lebanon: So will you help us disarm Hezbollah to uphold the multiple resolutions y'all passed mandating the disarmament of sectarian militias?

UN: No. lol

Lebanon: Will you stop Israel from bombing us? It's kind of y'all's fault Iran, Hezbollah, and Israel pulled us into a regional conflict in the first place.

UN: Also, no. Evacuate. lol

It's an ill-conceived approach to Lebanon, one likely motivated by the belief that decimating Hezbollah's leadership would put them on the backfoot and make a ground operation, limited or otherwise, more tenable. I suspect the initial objective is to destroy as many artillery platforms, munitions, and pieces of military infrastructure near the border as possible to reduce Hezbollah's capacity to sustain bombardment of northern Israel, but that doesn't change the fact that Bibi doesn't have an exit strategy and keeps over-promising on war aims. Or that ground fighting in Lebanon will likely exact a heavy price in every relevant respect and once again violates Lebanon's sovereignty - not that Israel's sovereignty has been respected of late either.

Rally around the flag effect benefitting literally every leader involved with the possible exception of Harris.

Clearly, I think Biden further alienating Arab, Muslim, and progressive voters is the biggest, most wrinkly-brained move Biden could make at the moment.