2023-24 Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran-Houthi Conflict

[Post War America]

If we had terrorists in the USA and Canada helped us get rid of them, we would say thank you. We may be embarrassed that we did not do it all on our own though.

The US literally has a law calling for the invasion of one of its own allies if American war criminals were being held for trial before the ICC. I can't imagine an airstrike directed at American citizens, particularly one with a high rate of "collateral damage" would go over any better.

[Areebistan]

Lebanon is in the process of being carpet bombed by Israel,

something tells me they aren't trying to help each other.

Just Hezbollah is being attacked. The Lebanese are neutral right? They should join the IDF in the fight against Hezbollah in a show of unity.

For someone who made their nation before I was born, you sound awfully like a child. Very naive.

[Porotia]

So Lebanon did not know that those terrorists were there?

Oh, they most definitely knew. They knew in 2006 and they knew today.

[Ifreann]

Like who?

I think Lebanon, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia would be a good start.

It is just wild how you come on here every day and embarrass yourself like this.

[Areebistan]

Also something everyone fails to realise is that all of the support for hezbollah in lebanon is not manifested in the form of direct votes for hezbollah, but people that have voted for groups closely aligned to hezbollah like the Amal Movement (Shia), FPM (Christian Maronite) and Marada Movement (Christian Maronite) are also voting in favour of hezbollah. They have a significant chunk of the lebanese people on their side. So there is quite a bit of support for hezbollah in the nation (im not saying there is a majority) and it could well have increased after yet another Israeli attack upon Lebanon's sovereign territory.

[El Lazaro]

Lebanon is in the process of being carpet bombed by Israel,

something tells me they aren't trying to help each other.

Just Hezbollah is being attacked. The Lebanese are neutral right? They should join the IDF in the fight against Hezbollah in a show of unity.

Bombing and conducting raids on Lebanon without permission from the government was an act of war, and the only reason that Lebanon has not responded with military action is that Israel would destroy the government and subject Lebanon to either occupation or anarchy.

[Soviet Haaregrad]

If we had terrorists in the USA and Canada helped us get rid of them, we would say thank you. We may be embarrassed that we did not do it all on our own though.

If Canada started bombing the US, the US would respond in kind. It's embarrassingly detached from reality of you to insist otherwise.

[Finium]

Also something everyone fails to realise is that all of the support for hezbollah in lebanon is not manifested in the form of direct votes for hezbollah, but people that have voted for groups closely aligned to hezbollah like the Amal Movement (Shia), FPM (Christian Maronite) and Marada Movement (Christian Maronite) are also voting in favour of hezbollah. They have a significant chunk of the lebanese people on their side. So there is quite a bit of support for hezbollah in the nation (im not saying there is a majority) and it could well have increased after yet another Israeli attack upon Lebanon's sovereign territory.

This is a very useful insight, thank you for sharing.

[The Lone Alliance]

Are any other Middle Eastern countries looking to help Israel fight Hezbollah and Hamas? This would be a good time to stand up for Israel and stand against terrorism.

Maybe at the start of the conflict,

but after everything Israel has done, no one in the region wants to be seen as helping Israel.

For the most part all the countries that are staying out of the way are Helping Israel by not getting involved.

After all for most of the Middle East if Israel wastes Hezbollah and the Houthis it's not like anyone aside from Iran are going to miss them. The Saudis aren't going to cry over dead Iranian proxies and Egypt isn't going to cry over a bunch of guys ruining their trade in the Suez Canal, and why lift a finger to do anything when Israel is doing a good enough job killing them for you.

Really Israel are the biggest suckers in this because they are the ones paying the price.

[Rusozak]

Also something everyone fails to realise is that all of the support for hezbollah in lebanon is not manifested in the form of direct votes for hezbollah, but people that have voted for groups closely aligned to hezbollah like the Amal Movement (Shia), FPM (Christian Maronite) and Marada Movement (Christian Maronite) are also voting in favour of hezbollah. They have a significant chunk of the lebanese people on their side. So there is quite a bit of support for hezbollah in the nation (im not saying there is a majority) and it could well have increased after yet another Israeli attack upon Lebanon's sovereign territory.

Which is why this eye for an eye approach to terrorism is moronic. If you're gonna have your home destroyed and your family killed just because you live in the general location where terrorists are hiding and/or are of the same racial or religious background, might as well throw in with them all the way, right? Congrats Israel, you just created a shit ton of people who want revenge and have nothing else to lose. Ask any attempt to stomp out an insurgency by viewing bystanders as "acceptable collateral damage" worked for them.

[Stellar Colonies]

As a correction, the IDF has begun ground offensives into southern Lebanon which it claims are apparently more in the nature of small-scale raids.

[La Xinga]

Alr, ig they can annoy us; probably the most fun they could have before getting blown to bits

Israelis be acting cocky and arrogant until some Palestinian stabs one of them in the head and then they scream "SHOAH"

Interesting how I refer to Hezbollah while you refer to Israeli civilians. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Fahran]

Just Hezbollah is being attacked. The Lebanese are neutral right? They should join the IDF in the fight against Hezbollah in a show of unity.

So even the IDF isn't claiming that they have limited their strikes to Hezbollah.

Israel has deliberately targeted Hamas and the PFLP, which both operate in Lebanon, primarily in Sunni communities and neighborhoods or Palestinian refugee camps. As an example, Hamas confirmed that the IDF had killed one of their senior officers, Fateh al-Sharif, who happened to be a high-ranking (and suspended) UNRWA employee. The PFLP likewise confirmed the deaths of three of their militants, though names were not provided.

We know that over a hundred people have been killed and, while a lot of them have been confirmed to be militants, we know that at least a few children have been killed as well. We do not have a reliable breakdown on the fatalities. So you're sort of just guessing here, and we already know that your guess is basically wrong.

[Fahran]

I am a bit more optimistic than you.

The three people who have inspired optimism in me about the modern Middle East are Yitzhak Rabin, Abdullah II of Jordan, and Mohammed VI of Morocco/André Azoulay. And it wasn't enough optimism to change terribly much.

Where is the contradiction between Palestinians returning and Palestinians living at peace with their neighbours?

In the fact that only 10% of Palestinians want to exercise the right of return if it means falling under Israeli administration. Given the circumstances, financial compensation, possibly with a more limited right of return, makes a lot more sense than expanding the scope of the population and land transfers that are already an inevitable prerequisite for peace.

I think Iraq-level stability is achievable.

Are you trying to make me a doomer?

Yes, so Israel started the war.

A preemptive strike really isn't as simple as so-and-so started the war. It's arguably more accurate to say that normal international relations were never established and that the Arab-Israeli Conflict had become a frozen conflict in the aftermath of the 1948 War. Which yielded geopolitical consequences when push came to shove.

Yeah, and that’s the point: they shouldn’t. Because. It. Is. Not. Theirs.

Pursuing ethnic maximalism and irregular fighting for forty years has consequences. Arafat and Abbas appear to have acknowledged that to some extent.

You said that Arabs were not negotiating, and I brought up examples of Arabs negotiating.

You brought up a foreign monarch who wasn't the dominant or guiding voice within Palestine and who was regularly disregarded by the bulk Arab nationalists operating in Palestine, some of whom later assassinated him.

[Fahran]

If the UN had an actual standing military that could accomplish things, any supposed impartiality it has would immediately go into the dumpster (unless the UN also develops its own military industrial complex, which would be very funny)

I'm just imagining a bunch of Canadians employing the Geneva Conventions as a checklist while spreading freedom and human rights everywhere. Also, Fukuyama writing very elated articles about the end of history.

[Fahran]

Also something everyone fails to realise is that all of the support for hezbollah in lebanon is not manifested in the form of direct votes for hezbollah, but people that have voted for groups closely aligned to hezbollah like the Amal Movement (Shia), FPM (Christian Maronite) and Marada Movement (Christian Maronite) are also voting in favour of hezbollah. They have a significant chunk of the lebanese people on their side. So there is quite a bit of support for hezbollah in the nation (im not saying there is a majority) and it could well have increased after yet another Israeli attack upon Lebanon's sovereign territory.

Hezbollah isn't really popular in Lebanon. They're popular among Shias, sure, but most Sunnis, Druze, and Christians have minimal levels of trust in them and do not support the role they play in regional politics.

The Arab Barometer survey reveals that, despite Hezbollah’s significant influence in Lebanon, relatively few Lebanese support it. Just 30 percent say they have quite a lot or a great deal of trust in Hezbollah, whereas 55 percent say they have no trust at all. Levels of trust vary widely by sect. Among the Shiite population, 85 percent say they have a great deal or quite a lot of trust in Hezbollah. By comparison, just nine percent of Sunnis and Druze, respectively, and six percent of Christians say the same. Since Arab Barometer last surveyed Lebanon in 2022, trust in Hezbollah has risen among Shiites by seven points but has remained unchanged among Christians, Sunnis, and Druze.

There is also not broad support among Lebanese for Hezbollah’s role in regional politics. Only a third say that they agree or strongly agree that it is good for the Arab world that Hezbollah is involved in regional politics, whereas a plurality of 42 percent strongly disagree. Unsurprisingly, Lebanese Shiites are most likely to rate Hezbollah’s role in regional affairs as positive (78 percent), compared with only 13 percent of Sunnis, 12 percent of Christians, and 16 percent of Druze.

Nevertheless, the perception that Hezbollah’s role in regional politics is positive has increased by nine points since 2022—and, notably, this increase in support is not coming from Shiites, whose views on this question have remained unchanged over the last two years. Instead, the heightened support comes from members of other sects, with a ten-point increase among Druze, an eight-point increase among Sunnis, and a seven-point increase among Christians.

This increase likely points to sympathy for Hezbollah’s stance toward Israel rather than deep support for the group itself. Lebanese citizens of all sects are horrified by Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. From a list of seven terms ranging from “conflict” to “genocide,” the most common terms they use to describe the Israeli operations there are “genocide” (36 percent of respondents chose that term) and “massacre” (25 percent). Meanwhile, 78 percent of Lebanese say that Israel’s bombing of Gaza represents “a terrorist act” compared with only 11 percent who view Hezbollah’s attacks in Northern Israel as “terrorism.”

Hezbollah’s primary patron is Iran, so it is unsurprising that Lebanese views of Iran mirror their attitudes toward Hezbollah’s role in regional politics. Thirty-six percent of Lebanese hold a very favorable or somewhat favorable view of Iran, with the sectarian divide once again visible: 80 percent of Shiites do so, compared with only 26 percent of Druze, 15 percent of Sunnis, and 15 percent of Christians. Despite this low overall level of support, such positive views toward Iran have increased by eight percentage points since 2022, and the increase was driven primarily by changing views among non-Shiites. Iran’s image improved the most among Druze (nine points), followed by Christians (five points) and Sunnis (four points).

The shift toward Iran, particularly among non-Shiite sects in Lebanon, has been coupled with a collapse in support for the United States. In 2024, just 27 percent of Lebanese have a favorable view of the United States, down from 42 percent in 2022. Christians are the most positive toward America (49 percent), followed by Druze (32 percent), and Sunnis (25 percent). Among Shiites, the figure is extremely low: five percent. The change was most dramatic among the Druze population, where favorable views of the United States fell by 31 percentage points. Favorability fell by 13 points among Christians, 11 points among Sunnis, and eight points among Shiites.

Source

The March 8 Alliance isn't particularly popular either, having been blamed by the Lebanese public for the 2020 Beirut Explosion and the subsequent obstructing of any investigation into the causes. The Lebanese public likewise remains one of the most disillusioned and disapproving of their government, exhibiting less satisfaction with services than even the Palestinian public, including serious issues with electricity, water, and other utilities.

The problem for the Israelis isn't that Hezbollah or the March 8 Alliance are well-liked. It's that the Lebanese public, to a very significant degree, hates the Israelis more than it hates Hezbollah and that any bombing of Lebanese communities is likely to inspire a rally around the flag effect. Should we expect Sunnis or Christians to be sad about Nasrallah biting the dust? No, not really. Should we expect Sunnis or Christians to be happy about yet another power invading their country for the umpteenth time? No.

[Jibjibistan]

Maybe at the start of the conflict,

but after everything Israel has done, no one in the region wants to be seen as helping Israel.

For the most part all the countries that are staying out of the way are Helping Israel by not getting involved.

After all for most of the Middle East if Israel wastes Hezbollah and the Houthis it's not like anyone aside from Iran are going to miss them. The Saudis aren't going to cry over dead Iranian proxies and Egypt isn't going to cry over a bunch of guys ruining their trade in the Suez Canal, and why lift a finger to do anything when Israel is doing a good enough job killing them for you.

Really Israel are the biggest suckers in this because they are the ones paying the price.

Exactly, but its about not appearing to actively help Israel,

the Arab states are too afraid of public opinion to actively assist Israel, all of their actions are shrouded in plausible deniability,

"We didn't defend Israel by shooting those missiles, we were defending ourselves, the missiles entered our airspace."

at most they will pay lip service to the Palestinians at the UN, maybe exchange some angry words, but privately, they are very happy with what's happening.

[Kaumudeen]

Lebanese need to start calling themselves Ukrainian or Taiwanese now. Then maybe the West will sanction Israel for their "special military operation!"

[Kaumudeen]

If we had terrorists in the USA and Canada helped us get rid of them, we would say thank you. We may be embarrassed that we did not do it all on our own though.

The biggest terrorists in the world are sitting in the White House and Congress, maybe you are onto something.

[Fahran]

Lebanese need to start calling themselves Ukrainian or Taiwanese now. Then maybe the West will sanction Israel for their "special military operation!"

The friend-enemy dichotomy remains triumphant.

The US will sanction Israel for attacking Hezbollah, whom it, by and large, hates, when Iran sanctions Russia for attacking Ukraine. Both of those events will happen about thirty minutes after pigs begin flying over Buenos Aires.

[Kaumudeen]

Lebanese need to start calling themselves Ukrainian or Taiwanese now. Then maybe the West will sanction Israel for their "special military operation!"

The friend-enemy dichotomy remains triumphant.

The US will sanction Israel for attacking Hezbollah, whom it, by and large, hates, when Iran sanctions Russia for attacking Ukraine. Both of those events will happen about thirty minutes after pigs begin flying over Buenos Aires.

It's literally a joke, we know that the West considers Arab lives disposable and worthless. And y'all wonder why no one in the Global South gives a shit about Ukrainians or 9/11.

[Fahran]

It's literally a joke, we know that the West considers Arab lives disposable and worthless. And y'all wonder why no one in the Global South gives a shit about Ukrainians or 9/11.

I wouldn't say "worthless." I do think a conversation could be had about the disposability and under-valuation of Arab life more broadly though. Not to mention the dehumanization and vilification of Arabs.

That said, it isn't just the West. Arab leaders consider Arab lives disposable. And leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah have repeatedly championed martyrdom and pursued policies they know full well can and will get large numbers of Arabs killed. Bashar al-Assad, the Houthis, and the Saudis have murdered about 750,000 Arabs in the past decade, potentially more when we factor in indirect fatalities.

And I think the Global South is often as cynical as the United States, Russia, China, Iran, Israel, etc. It's not as simple as neo-realists believe, certainly, and moral considerations do matter, but they're very seldom the sole deciding factor when it comes to what gets emphasized or brought into salience. Does Iran care about Muslim lives? Sure. Is it going to kick up a stink over Muslim lives in China if it means alienating an ally? Nope.

[Outer Bratorke]

Just Hezbollah is being attacked. The Lebanese are neutral right? They should join the IDF in the fight against Hezbollah in a show of unity.

Bombing and conducting raids on Lebanon without permission from the government was an act of war, and the only reason that Lebanon has not responded with military action is that Israel would destroy the government and subject Lebanon to either occupation or anarchy.

Freedonia's lack of understanding of consent in deeply disturbing.

[Fahran]

Freedonia's lack of understanding of consent in deeply disturbing.

Let's not get into the weeds on that topic. I'm not permitted or inclined to moderate this thread, but that topic isn't the topic of the thread and will almost certainly constitute malicious content if discussed at length. So... let's not.

[Outer Bratorke]

Farhan, when will you admit Senkaku was right about Blinken actively ignoring US law?