Ukrainian War VI: Pyrrhus Returns

[Vistulange]

Leftists are the main obstacle to leftism. It’s time we put an end to leftist betrayal of leftism.

See, this is the sort of statement which could be dead serious, or mocking. It's just that beautiful.

[The Selkie]

No see, first we cause a nuclear war wiping out most of humanity. Then in a remote part of Montana, a guy gets to work building a warp ship...

…motivated by capitalism and an island of naked women…

Prime Universe, Mirror Universe or one of the miryad of alternate realities of Star Trek's Beta Canon, including, but not limited to, the one from the TNG and Doctor Who Crossover Comics?

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

Letting fascist Russia or absurdly capitalist PRC dominate the planet will not lead to some socialist world revolution
The inability of tankies to recognise this fact is greatly damaging to the socialist cause

No see, first we cause a nuclear war wiping out most of humanity. Then in a remote part of Montana, a guy gets to work building a warp ship...

Is Imran Khan the product of a human genetic engineering programme?

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65759630
SA: "How do we avoid bringing a criminal against peace to justice?"
"I know, let's not arrest the guy when he comes over."

[Great Britain eke Northern Ireland]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65759630
SA: "How do we avoid bringing a criminal against peace to justice?"
"I know, let's not arrest the guy when he comes over."

I believe the South African Project has run its course and that it’s time for the country’s peoples to choose their own paths rather than be dragged into Hell by the ANC.

[The Rio Grande River Basin]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65759630
SA: "How do we avoid bringing a criminal against peace to justice?"
"I know, let's not arrest the guy when he comes over."

I believe the South African Project has run its course and that it’s time for the country’s peoples to choose their own paths rather than be dragged into Hell by the ANC.

I believe the South African Project has run its course and that it’s time for the country’s peoples to be brought back into the empire rather than be dragged into Hell by the ANC.

[The Selkie]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65759630
SA: "How do we avoid bringing a criminal against peace to justice?"
"I know, let's not arrest the guy when he comes over."

...so. Read the article.
South Africa's government is, according to Obed Bapela (the current Deputy Minister of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs), planning to pass a law, which allows them to decide, whether or not to arrest someone with a warrant by the International Criminal Court.
This, apparently, also involves an article of the ICC, that the ICC can't ask South Africa to arrest Putin unless Russia waives his diplomatic immunity.
Bapela also accussed the ICC of double standards, citing Bush and Blair (has an air of whataboutism, but let's let that stand), as well as Pinochet - apparently, he was in the UK in 1998, but freed after 16 months because doctors said he could not stand trial.
Now, leaving Bush and Blair aside, the Pinochet-Argument has a major problem: If a state of law's experts come to the conclusion, that someone can't stand trial for a medical reason, then he can't stand trial, end of discussion. To my understanding, though, Putin is quite fit and of sane mind, or it is claimed, at least, so Mister Bapela should rethink that particular argument.
The bigger problem, however, is, that South Africa is a BRICS-Member, much like Russia. A lot of South African trade goes to China and India, not exclusively, yes, but around a fifth of their entire export volume. South Africa has positive relations with Russia, even conducting naval exercises together as of late. They would be stupid to risk that for the metaphysical brownie points the west can offer them.
Maybe giving them something more viable, with more worth then just a pat on the back, then what the BRICS is offering them would be a solution? For them, and Brazil and India? Then, the problem of BRICS will solve itself and China will be thrown back quite a bit, as will be Russia.

[Tarsonis]

First confirmed photo of a Russian S-400's command post being destroyed by a Ukrainian HIMARS strike.

HIMARS: *Misses*

Russia on open media: "See how bad Ukraine is? They miss our command post 200 meters left"

Ukraine: *Adjusts*

HIMARS: "Brrrr"

Russia:

[Primitive Communism]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65759630
SA: "How do we avoid bringing a criminal against peace to justice?"
"I know, let's not arrest the guy when he comes over."

Arresting a sitting head of state is a very serious action that shouldn't be done lightly. Don't get me wrong, I would have immense respect for South Africa if they were to detain Putin on arrival and send him to the ICC. It would quite easily be the single most explicitly anti-imperialist action conducted by an African country in the 21st century. But there are very real consequences that South Africa could face for doing so. Their hesitation is entirely understandable. This isn't the USA we're talking about that can do whatever it pleases and avoid any consequences whatsoever; it's a poor, unstable post-colonial African state mired in corruption. There could be very real retaliation - perhaps not even from Russia - could be devastating for a country that is already in an extremely untenable position, like most of the continent. African states have to play geopolitics more carefully than their European, North American or East Asian counterparts. They may have less to lose but they also have less means to avoid losing at all.

[Rusozak]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65759630
SA: "How do we avoid bringing a criminal against peace to justice?"
"I know, let's not arrest the guy when he comes over."

Arresting a sitting head of state is a very serious action that shouldn't be done lightly. Don't get me wrong, I would have immense respect for South Africa if they were to detain Putin on arrival and send him to the ICC. It would quite easily be the single most explicitly anti-imperialist action conducted by an African country in the 21st century. But there are very real consequences that South Africa could face for doing so. Their hesitation is entirely understandable. This isn't the USA we're talking about that can do whatever it pleases and avoid any consequences whatsoever; it's a poor, unstable post-colonial African state mired in corruption. There could be very real retaliation - perhaps not even from Russia - could be devastating for a country that is already in an extremely untenable position, like most of the continent. African states have to play geopolitics more carefully than their European, North American or East Asian counterparts. They may have less to lose but they also have less means to avoid losing at all.

I'm more surprised Putin is venturing out of his sphere of influence at all. He's basically global enemy #1 right now. I don't think so many people have been after a single man's head since Hitler. I would be more worried about assassination risks than being arrested.

[Rary]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65759630
SA: "How do we avoid bringing a criminal against peace to justice?"
"I know, let's not arrest the guy when he comes over."

Arresting a sitting head of state is a very serious action that shouldn't be done lightly. Don't get me wrong, I would have immense respect for South Africa if they were to detain Putin on arrival and send him to the ICC. It would quite easily be the single most explicitly anti-imperialist action conducted by an African country in the 21st century. But there are very real consequences that South Africa could face for doing so. Their hesitation is entirely understandable. This isn't the USA we're talking about that can do whatever it pleases and avoid any consequences whatsoever; it's a poor, unstable post-colonial African state mired in corruption. There could be very real retaliation - perhaps not even from Russia - could be devastating for a country that is already in an extremely untenable position, like most of the continent. African states have to play geopolitics more carefully than their European, North American or East Asian counterparts. They may have less to lose but they also have less means to avoid losing at all.

To add to this: If we are to actively try to arrest Putin, we must be very careful and ensure that there is a suitable replacement. The last thing that we want is for there to be a power struggle over the Kremlin, and potentially a civil war or isolated rebellions. Russias nuclear weapons, even if many are not functional, are extremely deadly and if they fall into the wrong hands…

[South Africa3]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65759630
SA: "How do we avoid bringing a criminal against peace to justice?"
"I know, let's not arrest the guy when he comes over."

...so. Read the article.
South Africa's government is, according to Obed Bapela (the current Deputy Minister of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs), planning to pass a law, which allows them to decide, whether or not to arrest someone with a warrant by the International Criminal Court.
This, apparently, also involves an article of the ICC, that the ICC can't ask South Africa to arrest Putin unless Russia waives his diplomatic immunity.
Bapela also accussed the ICC of double standards, citing Bush and Blair (has an air of whataboutism, but let's let that stand), as well as Pinochet - apparently, he was in the UK in 1998, but freed after 16 months because doctors said he could not stand trial.
Now, leaving Bush and Blair aside, the Pinochet-Argument has a major problem: If a state of law's experts come to the conclusion, that someone can't stand trial for a medical reason, then he can't stand trial, end of discussion. To my understanding, though, Putin is quite fit and of sane mind, or it is claimed, at least, so Mister Bapela should rethink that particular argument.
The bigger problem, however, is, that South Africa is a BRICS-Member, much like Russia. A lot of South African trade goes to China and India, not exclusively, yes, but around a fifth of their entire export volume. South Africa has positive relations with Russia, even conducting naval exercises together as of late. They would be stupid to risk that for the metaphysical brownie points the west can offer them.
Maybe giving them something more viable, with more worth then just a pat on the back, then what the BRICS is offering them would be a solution? For them, and Brazil and India? Then, the problem of BRICS will solve itself and China will be thrown back quite a bit, as will be Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65759630
SA: "How do we avoid bringing a criminal against peace to justice?"
"I know, let's not arrest the guy when he comes over."

Arresting a sitting head of state is a very serious action that shouldn't be done lightly. Don't get me wrong, I would have immense respect for South Africa if they were to detain Putin on arrival and send him to the ICC. It would quite easily be the single most explicitly anti-imperialist action conducted by an African country in the 21st century. But there are very real consequences that South Africa could face for doing so. Their hesitation is entirely understandable. This isn't the USA we're talking about that can do whatever it pleases and avoid any consequences whatsoever; it's a poor, unstable post-colonial African state mired in corruption. There could be very real retaliation - perhaps not even from Russia - could be devastating for a country that is already in an extremely untenable position, like most of the continent. African states have to play geopolitics more carefully than their European, North American or East Asian counterparts. They may have less to lose but they also have less means to avoid losing at all.

While these are certainly valid takes, a general rule of thumb is to 'follow the money' when trying to understand the workings of the ANC - and, by extension, the South African government. In recent years, the ANC has been struggling finacially according to now Deputy President Paul Matashile, to such an extent that it cut back on campaign financing in the 2021 municipal elections, scaled back its anniversary celebrations last year, and is reportedly "considering" disbanding its KZN leadership - though the latter has more to do with internal factional rivalries. One suspected cause of these financial woes is, ironically, mismanagement of party funds. Exacerbating these troubles is the new Political Party Funding Act (a good summary can be found here), which has made it much harder for the party to source funding from its traditional source - companies that recieve government tenders.

Now, how does Ukraine fit into all of this? Well, the ANC has found a proverbial saviour in the form of United Manganese of Kalahari (UMK), an entity with ties to sanctioned Russian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg. Additionally, as The Selkie mentioned, South Africa is a member of BRICS and has close ties to Russia, which is part of the stubbornly enduring legacy of Jacob Zuma. I could write entire dissertations explaining just how damaging Zuma's presidency was for South Africa, and a few more explaining how damaging his legacy continues to be. As we've known for many years now, Zuma and his associated cronies engaged in widespread, systemic corruption that effectively amounted to state capture, and are largely responsible for the situation we find ourselves in today. Russia played a star role in the capture of the South African state; allegations of state capture increased as the relationship between South Africa and Russia grew.

[El Lazaro]

I believe the South African Project has run its course and that it’s time for the country’s peoples to choose their own paths rather than be dragged into Hell by the ANC.

I believe the South African Project has run its course and that it’s time for the country’s peoples to be brought back into the empire rather than be dragged into Hell by the ANC.

Because Russia proves colonialism thinly veiled by the supposed master race “helping” their victims is so awesome *nods*

[South Africa3]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65759630
SA: "How do we avoid bringing a criminal against peace to justice?"
"I know, let's not arrest the guy when he comes over."

I believe the South African Project has run its course and that it’s time for the country’s peoples to choose their own paths rather than be dragged into Hell by the ANC.

Verwoerd and co tried their very hardest to do just that.

[Primitive Communism]

Arresting a sitting head of state is a very serious action that shouldn't be done lightly. Don't get me wrong, I would have immense respect for South Africa if they were to detain Putin on arrival and send him to the ICC. It would quite easily be the single most explicitly anti-imperialist action conducted by an African country in the 21st century. But there are very real consequences that South Africa could face for doing so. Their hesitation is entirely understandable. This isn't the USA we're talking about that can do whatever it pleases and avoid any consequences whatsoever; it's a poor, unstable post-colonial African state mired in corruption. There could be very real retaliation - perhaps not even from Russia - could be devastating for a country that is already in an extremely untenable position, like most of the continent. African states have to play geopolitics more carefully than their European, North American or East Asian counterparts. They may have less to lose but they also have less means to avoid losing at all.

I'm more surprised Putin is venturing out of his sphere of influence at all. He's basically global enemy #1 right now. I don't think so many people have been after a single man's head since Hitler. I would be more worried about assassination risks than being arrested.

This is an obscenely Western-centric viewpoint.

From what I've seen the only ones standing firmly opposed to Putin are the West and their closest allies; the rest of the world seems far more divided on the matter, and for good reason. Most countries generally have bigger things to worry about than a distant war that doesn't concern them, doesn't affect them, and doesn't present an opportunity for them. A few lukewarm condemnations here and there don't amount to much of anything. Considering Russia's influence seems to be spreading in Africa in particular I think you're vastly overestimating how unpopular Putin is. Most countries don't seem to care about the Ukraine War beyond securing grain shipments unmolested, and the countries getting those grain shipments are obviously more concerned about the grain coming at all than whether or not the ships transporting it are flying Ukrainian or Russian flags.

This really isn't the whole world against Russia. If it was the war would've been over a long time ago and Putin would be face down in a ditch somewhere.

[Khardsland]

China continues to threaten American sovereignty by having their country dangerously close to American foreign bases

[Adamede]

China continues to threaten American sovereignty by having their country dangerously close to American foreign bases

You mean like how South East Asia has their countries dangerously close to Chinese bases in the South China Sea?

Now what the fuck does that have to do with Ukraine?

[The Two Jerseys]

China continues to threaten American sovereignty by having their country dangerously close to American foreign bases

Nobody cares about your YouTube channel.

[Northern Seleucia]

So there was another Belgorod incursion, apparently.

[Hidrandia]

So there was another Belgorod incursion, apparently.

Links

[Northern Seleucia]

So there was another Belgorod incursion, apparently.

Links

Russian defence ministry says it thwarted three attacks on Belgorod region - agencies

Russian partisans back in Belgorod Oblast, declare second phase of operation in Russia

[Fortisbellator]

(just my musings; I am no military know-it-all, just an enthusiast novice; also I apologize if you sense too much of the Capt. Obvious)
where is this war going

No maggot ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other dumb poor maggot die for his country." --Georgie

For starters, I'm wondering why Russia's SOC wouldn't use special units as the "assault infantry" stated here? Why have a lot of them as snipers or arty crews when they could be conventionally taking names and kicking butts? This is an LSCO, not unconventional warfare. I would've focused my special operations forces on rolling up the front line--at an appropriate rate, of course.

Assault infantry seems ok.

Line infantry. I get that Russia needs to work on its defense, but you should never let yourself get so overextended that you have to take men FROM YOUR MECHANIZED UNITS and put them in defensive roles. Mechanized infantry is one of the best innovations since WWII. Being that mobile is a precious jewel. Defending AND attacking, IMHO, should be a regular infantry formation's job. Mech inf just can't be done away like this! Also, what's the point of trench warfare? I thought we were done with that lol.

The disposables leading the assaults--I can see that. Not to be heartless, but these soldiers are pointless and will be done away with first. Better to keep those convicts in prison and those civilians in their houses than dispatch them with bare-minimum training. But realize, as the article says, that these are 20th-century level tactics. Russia's sunk that low. But somehow everything seems like constant attrition.

[Hurtful Thoughts]

I'm more surprised Putin is venturing out of his sphere of influence at all. He's basically global enemy #1 right now. I don't think so many people have been after a single man's head since Hitler. I would be more worried about assassination risks than being arrested.

This is an obscenely Western-centric viewpoint.

From what I've seen the only ones standing firmly opposed to Putin are the West and their closest allies; the rest of the world seems far more divided on the matter, and for good reason. Most countries generally have bigger things to worry about than a distant war that doesn't concern them, doesn't affect them, and doesn't present an opportunity for them. A few lukewarm condemnations here and there don't amount to much of anything. Considering Russia's influence seems to be spreading in Africa in particular I think you're vastly overestimating how unpopular Putin is. Most countries don't seem to care about the Ukraine War beyond securing grain shipments unmolested, and the countries getting those grain shipments are obviously more concerned about the grain coming at all than whether or not the ships transporting it are flying Ukrainian or Russian flags.

This really isn't the whole world against Russia. If it was the war would've been over a long time ago and Putin would be face down in a ditch somewhere.

Y'know, when "the west" starts including Korea, Australia, Japan, Singapore, the Philippines, Turkey and Greece (even Cyprus), Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Libya, Mali, Saudi Arabia, and the constituent states of former Yugoslavia... ye kinda may wanna double check whatever you're using for a compass. Because it's clearly broken.

BTW, this list is pretty much folks that not only voted for am immediate Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, but also provided aid to Ukraine.

The list is actually bigger, obviously.

And yes, that is Slovakia, Albania, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia, Slovenia, AND Czech Republic agreeing with each other on a unified front.

[Picairn]

(just my musings; I am no military know-it-all, just an enthusiast novice; also I apologize if you sense too much of the Capt. Obvious)
where is this war going

No maggot ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other dumb poor maggot die for his country." --Georgie

For starters, I'm wondering why Russia's SOC wouldn't use special units as the "assault infantry" stated here? Why have a lot of them as snipers or arty crews when they could be conventionally taking names and kicking butts? This is an LSCO, not unconventional warfare. I would've focused my special operations forces on rolling up the front line--at an appropriate rate, of course.

Assault infantry seems ok.

Line infantry. I get that Russia needs to work on its defense, but you should never let yourself get so overextended that you have to take men FROM YOUR MECHANIZED UNITS and put them in defensive roles. Mechanized infantry is one of the best innovations since WWII. Being that mobile is a precious jewel. Defending AND attacking, IMHO, should be a regular infantry formation's job. Mech inf just can't be done away like this! Also, what's the point of trench warfare? I thought we were done with that lol.

The disposables leading the assaults--I can see that. Not to be heartless, but these soldiers are pointless and will be done away with first. Better to keep those convicts in prison and those civilians in their houses than dispatch them with bare-minimum training. But realize, as the article says, that these are 20th-century level tactics. Russia's sunk that low. But somehow everything seems like constant attrition.

To answer your question: The Russian Army's force structure (especially its Battalion Tactical Groups - BTGs) features a lot of armour and artillery but not enough infantry, and this also puts additional strain on logistics. This army at peace-time manpower levels is optimized for short, sharp conflicts using a lot of artillery, but it is unable to sustain a long conventional war, especially if the infantry are not sufficiently filled/replenished in time. Typically, Russian ground formations are staffed somewhere between 70 to 90 percent, but if we subtract the 30 percent of conscripts (which takes time to mobilize), then out of a brigade of 3,500 no more than 1,700 are deployable. If Russia can't even find enough contract servicemen to serve, or there are officers cooking the books, then actual readiness levels will be even lower.

The Russian assumption in building a smaller, better equipped army is that in a hypothetical war with NATO, the entire nation would mobilize and fully staff all ground units. But Putin blew up this strategy, since he didn't want to significantly increase tensions and political instability in Russia by announcing mobilizations to invade a foreign country, at first. Hence he ordered the peacetime army to conduct a "Special Military Operation" to quickly seize Kyiv and take over the country, but that failed with heavy losses.

As it turned out, a 300k army was not sufficient to do the occupation and go on a lightning offensive at the same time. So the war in Donbass gradually devolved into a giant artillery duel in which Russia tried to force Ukraine to withdraw with its artillery superiority e.g. at Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. To have enough manpower on this front, Russia transferred units from Kharkiv Oblast to the Donbass (as well as Kherson in anticipation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive) and greatly weakened the Kharkiv front, which were later exploited by Ukraine with smashing success.

Now, Russia *is* using its special forces to conduct offensive operations. The VDV for example, after the botched Hostomel Airport landings, spearheaded the Russian offensive in Bakhmut alongside Wagner. Russia also wasted its Spetsnaz as regular assault troops, which led to heavy attrition and degradation of quality of these SOF units. The shortage of manpower and the post-mobilization unreliability of conscripts meant that these units (plus the elite Naval Infantry) are the only viable formations to be thrown into the offensive.

Trench warfare made a comeback in the Donbass because neither Ukraine nor Russia has a capability for sustained armoured offensives to break through 9-year-old fortified lines. Much of Russia's armour has been destroyed, abandoned, or captured in Kyiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv, and they had to pull out old T-62s and T-55s for fire support. Ukraine has to save its precious few armoured units and wait for any poorly-defended front to break through like in Kharkiv. Western tanks are arriving but they are too few in number at present.

[America Republican Edition]

Here’s something to talk about: Drone attack brings Putin's war home to a shaken Moscow.

In Layman’s Terms: Putin did an extremely bad thing and now there are people who are at risk of losing their lives because of his "liberation" of Ukraine from the Western-controlled Jewish-backed woke Nazi mobs controlling the government in Kyiv.