'23 Turkish Election: Crisis at Home, Conflict in the World

[Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum]

Turkish Nation Is Not Intelligent.

[El Lazaro]

Counting is basically done, with both news agencies reporting an Erdogan victory. Still, it was close, dangerously close considering it came down a second round and there was genuine reason to believe Kilicdaroglu would win. While not all strongmen are killed/exiled/imprisoned/etc. after being deposed, the risk is not something Erdogan can ignore, and simply placating the opposition in the next 5 years may not be good enough insurance in his eyes. There are two ways he can cover his back: turning Turkey into more of a pure autocracy where a genuine opposition isn’t allowed to exist or bargaining with possible successors to slowly ease up on authoritarian rule on the condition that he is guaranteed safety/immunity and some amount of power when he leaves office.

For the opposition, if Erdogan doesn’t choose either, I still wouldn’t say these results are promising. Perhaps some blame can be attributed to Kilicdaroglu, but this was as much of an ideal scenario as they can get under an authoritarian regime. Identity trumped policy, and it seems like Erdogan can continue to win no matter how much it harms the interests of voters. The opposition can win someday, but there is little they can do to persuade a broader coalition of voters until the voters themselves change. In some ways, this more disappointing than if they had just lost because they ran an awful campaign which demonstrated how they can do better and succeed next time around.

The results do not make me hopeful, but at least the potential challenges to and downsides of new leadership in Turkey will remain hypotheticals for long enough that there is no reason to worry about a renewed democratic experiment failing for now. In politics, the opposite of awful is usually okay and absolutely never perfect, so the devil you know is easier to speak of than the passable alternative you don’t. The predictably unfortunate next five years of Turkish domestic and foreign policy will stave off plenty of difficult dilemmas for many.

Turkish Nation Is Not Intelligent.

“Turkey big dumb” - HHDI on Turkish politics, 2023

[Southland]

Can't say I'm surprised, given how close the polls got near the time of election and Kilicdaroglu (well, mostly his allies) was revealed to be a real piece of work on their own. I'm more surprised that it seems that the overseas voters weren't the ones to buoy Erdogan this time.

[Risottia]

Well, I am a bit underwhelmed by the shock.

[Dayganistan]

How fucking stupid does someone have to be to actually vote for Erdogan?

[Bahrimontagn]

Turkish Nation Is Not Intelligent.

You remind me of Hillary voters after Trump won lmao.

Sounds like Erdogan's Turkey is a Russian Trojan Horse within NATO. Even so, how to do with it....is there a way to suspend their membership and their veto long enough to let Sweden in? Is there a precedent for that?

Turkey contributes more to NATO than a lot of European countries so good luck with that. Asking Turkey to let Sweden in, which harbours PKK activists, is a bit like asking the US to allow the Taliban into NATO right after 9/11.

[Corrian]

Yup, as expected, Erdogan won.

What a shame. It seemed like he was maybe headed for a loss going into the election. One annoying authoritarian left to deal with in the world for the foreseeable future.

[Page]

Being a bit autistic, I fucking hate it when people do celebratory horn honking after football games, it triggers anxiety attacks, but last night it went on for goddamn hours and suddenly I realized there was no game, it was thousands of Turkish people here in Germany celebrating Erdogan's victory. Which is so much fucking worse.

[Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum]

Netherlands, Geert Wilders, asked those who voted for Erdogan to leave the country. I agree with Geert Wilders' view about Turks who voted for Erdoğan, but I find it lacking. They should give the money they earned to the Dutch treasury and leave.

I hope that all Turks who voted for Erdogan will now pack their bags and move to Turkey. Goodbye !

[Parti Ouvrier]

Well, I am a bit underwhelmed by the shock.

Same here.

[Parti Ouvrier]

Yup, as expected, Erdogan won.

What a shame. It seemed like he was maybe headed for a loss going into the election. One annoying authoritarian left to deal with in the world for the foreseeable future.

Kemal would have been a right-wing authoritarian and nationalist too, not that much would have changed anyway.

[Vistulange]

Yup, as expected, Erdogan won.

What a shame. It seemed like he was maybe headed for a loss going into the election. One annoying authoritarian left to deal with in the world for the foreseeable future.

Kemal would have been a right-wing authoritarian and nationalist too, not that much would have changed anyway.

Is this based on anything substantial, or is it just "I'm a communist trust me bro"?

[Bahrimontagn]

It was more CHP lost rather than Erdogan won. Maybe if CHP tried to court the rural voters a bit more instead of appealing to urbanites and the western diplomats they would have come out on top.

Being a bit autistic, I fucking hate it when people do celebratory horn honking after football games, it triggers anxiety attacks, but last night it went on for goddamn hours and suddenly I realized there was no game, it was thousands of Turkish people here in Germany celebrating Erdogan's victory. Which is so much fucking worse.

Always love it when Europeans fume over the slightest prescence of Turks. Keep on honking brothers.

[Transsibiria]

This is a very unfortunate outcome for the Turkish Republic and the World. This is all I can say about this.

[-Astoria-]

A not-too-surprising result.

[El Lazaro]

So uh, now that Erdogan has won, remember all those questionable economic policies he enacted just before the election? The lira is at a record low of 0.05 per dollar, and the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves dropped to -$0.2 billion, the first time net reserves have been in the negatives since 2002. This sinks below -$40 billion if inflated numbers from currency swaps are disregarded. The government was using this to slow the lira’s depreciation.

One concern I’ve heard is about Erdogan’s “liraization” strategy, which as I understand, partially consists of promising to compensate lira bank account holders for lost currency value in order to encourage people to use the lira. Here’s what I think follows:
- If there is too much depreciation to pay for, the government must borrow (raising its already soaring debt risk premium) or print money (raising inflation, officially at ~50% rn) to continue this
- The former reduces the government’s ability to borrow, forcing it to resort to more of the latter
- The former pushes down the value of the lira, requiring further compensation in turn
- This creates a doom loop of inflation
- Discontinuing liraization is like sawing off the brakes on depreciation, but it could prevent a doom loop

Of course, this is Erdogan, so an insane backup plan that works for now but could get even uglier when it doesn’t is probably lying in wait. This could still be the breaking point, whatever that means at this point. It is also not impossible that Erdogan suddenly falls back on orthodox economic policies, but he hasn’t hinted at a change of course yet.

[Greater Miami Shores 3]

With the date of the general election finalized, the Turkish election season has begun. On May 14, Turks will elect a president and all 600 members of the Grand National Assembly. To clear up any confusion, Turkey is an authoritarian state with elections which are simultaneously contestable and skewed against the opposition. Though President Erdogan didn’t create this system, he has wielded it effectively to reign for two decades (longer than any of his predecessors) and fundamentally reshape the Turkish political system.

Erdogan first became Turkey’s leader in 2003, running as a populist and religious moderate pitted against a corrupt, authoritarian, and elitist political establishment both intolerant of ethnic minorities and the visibly religious and incapable of resolving economic issues. He swept the elections, survived both the 2007 military coup threat and a 2016 coup attempt, used the aforementioned events as a springboard to consolidate power and reform the constitution, purged his enemies, saturated the media and legal system with loyalists, and made a new political establishment in his own image. Beyond aesthetic differences, what sets him apart is that he’s a savvy politician, in spite of his unpopularity.

Essentially, this election is a referendum on Erdogan, who can loosely be described as a right-wing populist, national-chauvinist, and charismatic demagogue. Though he initially ran on a promise to defeat economic mismanagement and corruption, soaring inflation and crippling wealth inequality—showcased by the horrific aftermath of the 2023 earthquakes—have undermined his popularity. Still, the opposition faces the challenges of finding a persuasive, unifying message and overcoming Erdogan’s grip on Turkish political institutions. Without further ado, here are the parties by their alliances:

People’s Alliance/CUMHUR (right-wing to far-right)

The People’s Alliance is the incumbent electoral alliance, backing Erdogan and his political agenda. Along with the Nation Alliance, the People’s Alliance is a shoe-in for the top two in the first round of the presidential elections and will either make up the majority orf the government or opposition in the Grand National Assembly.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (AKP)
Since Erdogan has been in power for so long with increasingly less limitations, there’s not much to say about what he’ll do differently; however, he has escalated expansionist and anti-Kurdish rhetoric in recent months in a rally ‘round the flag effort.

Justice and Development Party/AKP (right-wing; right-wing populism)
As Erdogan’s personality cult/political machine, what can be said about the Turkish president can generally be said about the AKP.

Nationalist Action Party/MHP (far-right; ultranationalism)
The MHP is a Turkish nationalist party that has been described as neo-fascist and linked to political violence. Originally a Kemalist party, it has made overtures to Islamism, and later, Erdoganism to remain in power.

Nation Alliance/MİLLET (center-left to center-right)

The Nation Alliance is an anti-Erdogan bloc made up of six different parties which propose returning to the parliamentary system, reversing democratic backsliding, gaining EU membership, and protecting fundamental freedoms with a new constitution. The two major parties, the CHP and İYİ, support (a less strict form of) Kemalism.

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP)
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, with the leaders of the five other parties and the popular mayors of Istanbul and Ankara as his vice presidents, is Erdogan’s main opposition. Kılıçdaroğlu has been described as the Turkish Gandhi, with a peaceful and formal disposition directly opposite to Erdogan. His selection was controversial because he is performing relatively poorly in the polls compared to the aforementioned mayors.

Republican People’s Party/CHP (center-left; social democracy)
The CHP is a social democratic and Kemalist party, although it seems to have moved towards a less harsh form of secularism to widen its appeal and has negotiated with Kurdish political leaders in the elections.

Good Party/İYİ (center-right; moderate conservatism)
The İYİ is running as a civic (not ethnic or religious) nationalist and more liberal alternative to the AKP/MHP bloc. It has emphasized women’s rights under Meral Akşener’s leadership.

Labor and Freedom Alliance (left-wing to far-left)

The Labor and Freedom Alliance is broadly progressive and anticapitalist. Although its largest member is the Kurdish-supported Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), the Turkish government banned the party after accusing it of being a terrorist organization tied to the Kurdish Workers’ Party, or PKK. Labor and Freedom will not run a candidate, and both the YSP and TİP have endorsed Kilicdaroglu’s presidential campaign.

Green Left Party/YSP (left-wing; democratic socialism; factions: Kurdish interests, social democracy, Communism)
Technically a normal green party, the entire alliance (save for the Workers’ Party of Turkey, or TİP) parties are running their lists under the YSP due to the HDP’s ban, so it’s the largest left-wing party in the elections. It supports minority rights and democratization.

Ancestral Alliance/ATA Alliance (right-wing to far-right)

Planned as an alliance between parties opposing both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, the Homeland Party launched its own campaign instead, and other members backed out before a presidential candidate was named. Since the ZP is too small to include in the poll, but Ogan is at least a candidate, the poll option will be considered a vote for both.

Sinan Oğan (independent)
A former MHP member, he was expelled thrice and claims the party has tried to assassinate him for criticizing its leadership. I can’t find much else about him in English media.

Victory Party/ZP (far-right; ultranationalism, Kemalism)
The ZP is politically adjacent to the MHP, but it is against Islamism, presidentialism, and Erdogan’s rejection of Kemalism. The party also opposes immigration and believes Erdogan has been too soft on Kurds.

The Homeland Party’s campaign

The Homeland Party, breaking away from negotiations with the Victory Party to field their own candidate, is running a presidential and parliamentary campaign by itself. Its founder Muharrem Ince is running in the first round, but if there is a second round, it has endorsed Kilicdaroglu in a match-up against Erdogan

Muharrem İnce (MP)
Ince is a former CHP member who tried to unseat Kilicdaroglu as leader twice and lost the 2018 presidential elections to Erdogan in the first round. A better orator than Kilicdaroglu, Ince says he has a better chance of winning over the AKP’s base.

Homeland Party/MP (center/syncretic; Kemalism)
The Homeland Party claims to be an ideologically pure Kemalist party, describing itself as neither right nor left, but following Atatürk. It has criticized the CHP’s cooperation with minor parties and alleged straying from Kemalism.

There is also a far-left alliance called the Union of Socialist Forces, but they lack any seats, and I cannot find any polling data or presidential endorsements from them.


And that’s all of them, at least the ones that will fit on a poll. Here’s the obligatory so, what do you all think? Opinions on who should win and predictions on who will? Is this election a pivotal point in global politics or is the media attention the equivalent of rubbernecking at a car crash?

Incidentally, Turkey turns 100 years old this year, making Erdogan one-fifth of the republic’s history. More importantly, Turkey is both a significant regional power and a sort of middle ground between Europe and the Middle East. Since the candidates have very different visions for Turkey’s future political system and foreign policy doctrine, along with the general context of democratic backsliding worldwide, I think this will be an election worth watching. Lastly, feel free to correct anything I got wrong in the OP. I’m also pretty sleepy, so apologies if some of this doesn’t make sense.

Turkey is an authoritarian corrupt state as you say, and Erdogan is its leader, he is not like President Trump in any way, shape or form, and this thread has nothing to do with President Trump.

[Southland]

this thread has nothing to do with President Trump.

So why even bring him up in the first place? No one else was talking about him until you decided to sing his praises for some weird reason.

[Vistulange]

he hasn’t hinted at a change of course yet.

That you have seen.

A few Turkish reporters were talking about a potential return to orthodox economic policy being on the table.

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

Just think of the really massive palace Erdogan will build now.

[-Astoria-]

Just think of the really massive palace Erdogan will build now.

Didn't he already build a new one?

[Risottia]

Turkey contributes more to NATO than a lot of European countries so good luck with that.

Turkey has a population similar to Germany's, but contributes less than Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Spain...

Asking Turkey to let Sweden in, which harbours PKK activists, is a bit like asking the US to allow the Taliban into NATO right after 9/11.

Yeah, Sweden is totally an extremist party which took over a country by force and then hosted terrorist groups who perpetrated a massive terrorist attack.
Also, the US allowed the Talibans into Afghanistan. Twice.

[Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum]

Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan is coming to Turkey to attend the swearing-in ceremony of the so-called President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Putin and his puppets are at work again.

[Perikuresu]

Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan is coming to Turkey to attend the swearing-in ceremony of the so-called President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Putin and his puppets are at work again.

Jesse, what the fuck are you talking about.

EDIT: (also isn't Armenia moving away from Russia and CSTO since the Ukraine war + Turkey has so far been more neutral on Russia, Ankara's using Russia to it's own benefits from what I've seen)

[El Lazaro]

Some investors optimism returns as Erdogan brings back economist Mehmet Simsek, who allegedly insisted on autonomy if he were to come back to his post. Still, he may be fired again in the future, so a drastic change in course isn’t assured.