Attacks in Iran: Potentially the start of a new war?

[Cannot think of a name]

So, could this escalate into a full scale war between Israel and Iran? And if so, who else would join in?

probably not because israel is backed by the US

if it does then it's probably just gonna be israel and the US. maybe saudi arabia if iran is getting their ass kicked really hard and/or they have nothing to lose and everything to gain

the middle east has been in a cold war for the past like 30 years (since the gulf war-ish but the seeds date back about 45 to the iranian revolution) and this is a pretty big escalation but i doubt it'll develop into outright war

iran's only real allies in the region are russia, hezbollah, and iraq. russia is tied up in ukraine, hezbollah is more of a terrorist organization than any actual military help, and iraq isn't ready for round 3

From the articles it seems this isn't entirely novel and the...guy in charge, blanked...needs a common boogieman more than he needs an open conflict.

[Utquiagvik]

So, could this escalate into a full scale war between Israel and Iran? And if so, who else would join in?

It's entirely possible, but I wouldn't think it's likely. For reasons that Hispida and and El Lazaro already mentioned.

Good point. Things could escalate further, but I don’t think Iran or Israel really want a full-scale war with each other at the moment.

[Utquiagvik]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConfl ... ame=iossmf
More explosions reported in Iran.

[Free Algerstonia]

i am ready to fight for my country

Playing Battlefield 3 doesn’t count.

i've found another way, i'm now actually ready to fight for my country

[Port Caverton]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/10okdkw/in_the_evening_of_january_29_explosions_are_heard/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
More explosions reported in Iran.

Seeing videos about that on twitter.

[El Lazaro]

probably not because israel is backed by the US

if it does then it's probably just gonna be israel and the US. maybe saudi arabia if iran is getting their ass kicked really hard and/or they have nothing to lose and everything to gain

the middle east has been in a cold war for the past like 30 years (since the gulf war-ish but the seeds date back about 45 to the iranian revolution) and this is a pretty big escalation but i doubt it'll develop into outright war

iran's only real allies in the region are russia, hezbollah, and iraq. russia is tied up in ukraine, hezbollah is more of a terrorist organization than any actual military help, and iraq isn't ready for round 3

From the articles it seems this isn't entirely novel and the...guy in charge, blanked...needs a common boogieman more than he needs an open conflict.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu or Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei?

[The United Penguin Commonwealth]

serbia wasn’t particularly powerful, but it was still involved in starting WWII.

ah, yes. serbia, the matchbox for WW2.

WWI. I don’t type that often and my hands defaulted to two Is.

[The Lone Alliance]

Oh, probably. But according to Iranian propaganda, Israel is at the root of every single evil in the world, so their word unfortunately does not count for much.

Doesn’t Saudi Arabia say the same thing, unless that’s changed?

No Israel and Saudi Arabia are loosely allies now because they both hate Iran more.

Really I can't see how much of a war can start from this, Iran might fire some ballastic missiles in Israel's direction but unless they're nuclear it's effect will be minimal and that is if Israel doesn't shoot them down first.

They could close the strait but unless Iran can blame Iraq,Kuwait,Qatar,UAE, or the Saudis for this, which they aren't, they'll be attacking neutral parties. They could launch an attack against Azerbaijan but they're already courting something because Azerbaijan closed their embassy after a gunman attacked it.

Russia doesn't have the resources or the political will to declare war on Israel because they're to tied up in Ukraine.
China wants friendly relations with Israel so they're not going to declare war either.

So who's going to go to war? Iran versus Turkey?

[Nue Cascadia]

Assuming the US doesn't intervene...

It could mean that Iran is one step closer to being free (again).

[Ancient Poland]

Is the Let's Go Bomb Tehran movement going to become a reality?

Ready to plunder another country, eh?

[Christian Confederation]

It's most likely the Saudis, Israel is also a contender but the Saudis are closer.

The Saudis? What gain would they have from these strikes? Isreal I think is a bit too far away

Both hate Iran more than they hate each other.

[HISPIDA]

Oh, probably. But according to Iranian propaganda, Israel is at the root of every single evil in the world, so their word unfortunately does not count for much.

Doesn’t Saudi Arabia say the same thing, unless that’s changed?

mmmmmmmgh

it's complicated.

the saudi-israeli relationship is pretty complex and has a lot of factors that are hard to put in a few paragraphs, but basically:

both israel and saudi arabia have an ally in their biggest foreign backers; the united states. saudi arabia and the united states have had a mutual defense agreement since 1951, with standard oil of california (now chevron) having facilities in the country since 1933. even since the 1940s america has considered saudi arabia a lynchpin in their foreign policy in the region, especially after the suez crisis, 1979 iranian revolution, and the iran-iraq war threatened western influence in the region considerably. likewise, president truman was personally sympathetic to zionism and in 1948 the united states was the first country in the world to recognize israel as an independent nation just a few hours after its declaration. as arab states such as egypt (later the UAR), iraq, syria (both as a part of the UAR and not), libya, and palestine began to drift towards the soviet camp the united states began to back israel more heavily to impact soviet influence in the region. this peaked under JFK in the early 60's, with kennedy lifting the arms embargos enforced on israel and formalizing an american-israeli alliance, peaking again during the reagan and more recently trump administrations.

saudi arabia doesn't officially recognize israel, but the two countries cooperate significantly behind the scenes. they have similar geopolitical goals (the containment of iran and protection by the USA), with israeli-arab relations continuing to cool. israel is in an unofficial alliance with saudi arabia and a few other countries, and at the same time the relationship between palestine and saudi arabia has been continuing to decline as iran continues to support palestinian groups in israel. saudi arabia has never been outright as hostile towards israel as iran has, and israel has supported making sure saudi arabia stays stable (especially during the arab spring).

tl;dr: similar allies, similar enemies --- alliance of convenience turning into genuine cordiality

[Tinhampton]

This thread was entitled "Drone strikes on Iran."

This is either going to end in nuclear armageddon or nothing much whatsoever.

[Zerotaxia]

So, could this escalate into a full scale war between Israel and Iran? And if so, who else would join in?

Not likely; the Iranians themselves have said so. From the BBC:

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran's foreign minister, said the "cowardly" incident was an attempt to destabilise the country.

But he added that the incident would not impact Iran's "determination and intention regarding the peaceful nuclear progress".

Furthermore if Iran wanted a casus belli against Israel and the west, the killing of their top general or their top nuclear scientist would have sufficed I think. But this could also be the final provocation for them to retaliate. Let's hope not.

[True Europa State]

Assuming the US doesn't intervene...

It could mean that Iran is one step closer to being free (again).

If the US doesn’t intervene. It hasn’t done much in the past few years, but a few decades of history shows America’s trend of intervening.

I suppose American intervention would either resolve the conflict or escalate it

[Dogmeat]

So, could this escalate into a full scale war between Israel and Iran? And if so, who else would join in?

Not likely; the Iranians themselves have said so. From the BBC:

Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran's foreign minister, said the "cowardly" incident was an attempt to destabilise the country.

But he added that the incident would not impact Iran's "determination and intention regarding the peaceful nuclear progress".

Furthermore if Iran wanted a casus belli against Israel and the west, the killing of their top general or their top nuclear scientist would have sufficed I think. But this could also be the final provocation for them to retaliate. Let's hope not.

I think the biggest issue at the moment is that they will try to use this to unite Iranians behind their unpopular regime. Their foreign minister may say the attack was meant to destabilize the country, but it will probably have the opposite effect.

[El Lazaro]

Not likely; the Iranians themselves have said so. From the BBC:

Furthermore if Iran wanted a casus belli against Israel and the west, the killing of their top general or their top nuclear scientist would have sufficed I think. But this could also be the final provocation for them to retaliate. Let's hope not.

I think the biggest issue at the moment is that they will try to use this to unite Iranians behind their unpopular regime. Their foreign minister may say the attack was meant to destabilize the country, but it will probably have the opposite effect.

Nah. Iran claims nobody died, and limiting the capabilities of the IRGC isn’t really that controversial anyway. If anything, acting aggressive (even though this does very little to help the opposition) makes Israel look better relative to the US.

[The Aituia]

Another US War of Oil, oorah! -bald-eagle-emoji [x3]-

[Frisemark]

Another US War of Oil, oorah! -bald-eagle-emoji [x3]-

The Petrodollar Warfare meme is so tired at this point, honestly. The amount of people who made it into an actual belief and firmly support the idea of it being the reason the US engages in interventionism is astounding.

[Zeleniya]

John 3:36

[Archinstinct]

This thread was entitled "Drone strikes on Iran."

There was more attacks on Iran and old title isn't sufficient to encompass what has or could potentially happen. Hence the more general clickbait title.

[Senkaku]

This thread was entitled "Drone strikes on Iran."

There was more attacks on Iran and old title isn't sufficient to encompass what has or could potentially happen. Hence the more general clickbait title.

if they didn't start a full-scale war when the Israelis used robotic machine guns to hit their top scientists, and they didn't start a full-scale war when the US blew up one of their top generals in an ostensibly neutral 3rd country, and we didn't start a war when they responded to that strike with a ballistic missile attack, then why on Earth would anyone think it's going to all kick off over an ammunition dump in Isfahan

[True Europa State]

There was more attacks on Iran and old title isn't sufficient to encompass what has or could potentially happen. Hence the more general clickbait title.

if they didn't start a full-scale war when the Israelis used robotic machine guns to hit their top scientists, and they didn't start a full-scale war when the US blew up one of their top generals in an ostensibly neutral 3rd country, and we didn't start a war when they responded to that strike with a ballistic missile attack, then why on Earth would anyone think it's going to all kick off over an ammunition dump in Isfahan

Things add up. Sure, it may not seem like a lot, but what if one more small incident happens and Iran decides “Alright, we’ve had enough of this”.

Everything goes kaboom. Why? Because people kept throwing minor attacks until they get fed up and decide to retaliate full-scale.

[Archinstinct]

if they didn't start a full-scale war when the Israelis used robotic machine guns to hit their top scientists, and they didn't start a full-scale war when the US blew up one of their top generals in an ostensibly neutral 3rd country, and we didn't start a war when they responded to that strike with a ballistic missile attack, then why on Earth would anyone think it's going to all kick off over an ammunition dump in Isfahan

Things add up. Sure, it may not seem like a lot, but what if one more small incident happens and Iran decides “Alright, we’ve had enough of this”.

Everything goes kaboom. Why? Because people kept throwing minor attacks until they get fed up and decide to retaliate full-scale.

Why did Russia invade Ukraine in February 2022? Because reasons with these authoritarian countries. I'm sure if Iran wants to attack somebody sometime they'll do it, logic be damned. Attacks like this just makes war more likely, that's all. Plus what True Europa State said.

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

Israel appears to have been behind drone strike on Iran factory, U.S. official says. From Reuters.

Don't think this is going to help Israel's relations with the rest of the Middle East...

I would have thought this was more likely to be connected with Iran supplying Russia with drones to attack Ukraine. Doesn't seem like something the Israelis would be involved in.