Attacks in Iran: Potentially the start of a new war?

[Big Bad Blue]

This sort of nonsense is why the NPT should be abolished and secondary powers should be provisioned with the ability to defend themselves.

It certainly does nothing to increase the probability of a non-nuclear Iran. This sort of nonsense is exactly why Iran wants nukes, and continuing it makes it more likely Iran will get nukes. Thanks to the defeated, disgraced former US president and the disgraced current Israeli premier for shitcanning what may have been the last best hope for a nonnuclear Iran.

If the OP is right and it is an external state actor that is sponsoring it, that makes it an act of international military aggression, does it not?

So? What's Iran going to do about it? As the Athenians told the Melians in the fourth century BCE, the strong do as they can and the weak suffer as they must.

[Romanic Imperium]

So Israel is responsible for this?

Unknown. They are a contender though.

So Israel is responsible for this?

yep. they've been hungering for war with iran for a while now.

If that were true they would do something bigger. This is unlikely to cause a war since theirs the big elephant in the room. Aka The US

[Khurkhogur]

This sort of nonsense is why the NPT should be abolished and secondary powers should be provisioned with the ability to defend themselves.

It certainly does nothing to increase the probability of a non-nuclear Iran. This sort of nonsense is exactly why Iran wants nukes, and continuing it makes it more likely Iran will get nukes. Thanks to the defeated, disgraced former US president and the disgraced current Israeli premier for shitcanning what may have been the last best hope for a nonnuclear Iran.

If the OP is right and it is an external state actor that is sponsoring it, that makes it an act of international military aggression, does it not?

So? What's Iran going to do about it? As the Athenians told the Melians in the fourth century BCE, the strong do as they can and the weak suffer as they must.

Well, I mean, you said it yourself. What Iran is going to do about this is they're going to get some nukes, if they can (and it's probable they can).
_{Also sidenote, please for the love of god don't say "BCE." It's one of the most annoying things to come out of 90s PC culture. It's really evident that the date 0 "BCE" is really just a relabeled 0 BC and has absolutely nothing to do with any "common era" (and what would that "common era" even entail?? that's never been made clear either)}

[Romanic Imperium]

Unknown. They are a contender though.



If that were true they would do something bigger. This is unlikely to cause a war since theirs the big elephant in the room. Aka The US

idk, repeatedly bombing an iranian weapons factory seems pretty major to me.

If Isreal wanted war they wouldn't bomb one weapons factory. They would bomb multiple. Pull out some half asked excuse and wait for Iran to declare war

[Cannot think of a name]

Israel appears to have been behind drone strike on Iran factory, U.S. official says. From Reuters.

Don't think this is going to help Israel's relations with the rest of the Middle East...

I would have thought this was more likely to be connected with Iran supplying Russia with drones to attack Ukraine. Doesn't seem like something the Israelis would be involved in.

Maybe Israel figured since Iran's big ally was busy now was the time. But also, apparently shit like this has been happening for years now so I don't know that this one rises to the level of alarm.

[Romanic Imperium]

If Isreal wanted war they wouldn't bomb one weapons factory. They would bomb multiple. Pull out some half asked excuse and wait for Iran to declare war

then why'd them bomb it?

Hatred for them, tell them they have forgotten?

[Cannot think of a name]

then why'd them bomb it?

Hatred for them, tell them they have forgotten?

Seems usually to forestall efforts to build a nuclear weapons.

[Khurkhogur]

Hatred for them, tell them they have forgotten?

nah. Israel's been warning Iran for some time now that they won't tolerate them developing nuclear weapons. I suspect this might have something to do with that.

It doesn't matter if they'll tolerate it or not, as soon as Iran gets the bomb Israel will have to back off or face the very real threat of a nuclear exchange.

[Transsibiria]

This sort of nonsense is why the NPT should be abolished and secondary powers should be provisioned with the ability to defend themselves.

It certainly does nothing to increase the probability of a non-nuclear Iran. This sort of nonsense is exactly why Iran wants nukes, and continuing it makes it more likely Iran will get nukes. Thanks to the defeated, disgraced former US president and the disgraced current Israeli premier for shitcanning what may have been the last best hope for a nonnuclear Iran.

If the OP is right and it is an external state actor that is sponsoring it, that makes it an act of international military aggression, does it not?

So? What's Iran going to do about it? As the Athenians told the Melians in the fourth century BCE, the strong do as they can and the weak suffer as they must.

It is not even sure the Fundementalist Islamist Regime in Iran will stay in power at this point.

[Techocracy101010]

idk, repeatedly bombing an iranian weapons factory seems pretty major to me.

If Isreal wanted war they wouldn't bomb one weapons factory. They would bomb multiple. Pull out some half asked excuse and wait for Iran to declare war

Bombing a sovereign country is an act of war

[Romanic Imperium]

nah. Israel's been warning Iran for some time now that they won't tolerate them developing nuclear weapons. I suspect this might have something to do with that.

It doesn't matter if they'll tolerate it or not, as soon as Iran gets the bomb Israel will have to back off or face the very real threat of a nuclear exchange.

I think we're all forgetting Isreal absolutely brilliant network of anti missile installations. Its called the Iron dome just wondering if anybody remembers that

If Isreal wanted war they wouldn't bomb one weapons factory. They would bomb multiple. Pull out some half asked excuse and wait for Iran to declare war

Bombing a sovereign country is an act of war

Most definitely. But I feel like if Isreal wanted war they wpuld be striking more than just one measly weapons factory

[Khurkhogur]

It doesn't matter if they'll tolerate it or not, as soon as Iran gets the bomb Israel will have to back off or face the very real threat of a nuclear exchange.

I think we're all forgetting Isreal absolutely brilliant network of anti missile installations. Its called the Iron dome just wondering if anybody remembers that

Nobody's forgetting the Iron Dome. Can it block ICBMs re-entering the atmosphere at blindingly fast speed with very little notice (considering how close Iran is)? I'm genuinely asking, because I don't know, but I also find it hard to imagine.

[Romanic Imperium]

I think we're all forgetting Isreal absolutely brilliant network of anti missile installations. Its called the Iron dome just wondering if anybody remembers that

Nobody's forgetting the Iron Dome. Can it block ICBMs re-entering the atmosphere at blindingly fast speed with very little notice (considering how close Iran is)? I'm genuinely asking, because I don't know, but I also find it hard to imagine.

I don't know if the iron dome has had to defend agianst that. Hypothetical it should. Most game depict it as blocking everything and the only way to get through it is throwing so many that it's not able to track them alll

[Khurkhogur]

Nobody's forgetting the Iron Dome. Can it block ICBMs re-entering the atmosphere at blindingly fast speed with very little notice (considering how close Iran is)? I'm genuinely asking, because I don't know, but I also find it hard to imagine.

I don't know if the iron dome has had to defend agianst that. Hypothetical it should. Most game depict it as blocking everything and the only way to get through it is throwing so many that it's not able to track them alll

Just looked it up - the Iron Dome is meant for short range missiles and is incapable of intercepting an ICBM.

[Romanic Imperium]

I don't know if the iron dome has had to defend agianst that. Hypothetical it should. Most game depict it as blocking everything and the only way to get through it is throwing so many that it's not able to track them alll

Just looked it up - the Iron Dome is meant for short range missiles and is incapable of intercepting an ICBM.

Well than it seems like Isreal will have to back off when iran gets their ICBM's unless they have like some Supersonic cruise missile that can shoot it down or something like that

[Picairn]

I don't know if the iron dome has had to defend agianst that. Hypothetical it should. Most game depict it as blocking everything and the only way to get through it is throwing so many that it's not able to track them alll

Just looked it up - the Iron Dome is meant for short range missiles and is incapable of intercepting an ICBM.

Not even SRBMs, it is for rockets and artillery shells only. The Iron Dome is mostly reserved for shooting down rockets from Gaza nowadays. A nuclear-tipped ballistic missile from Iran is beyond the Iron Dome's ability to intercept it.

[Picairn]

Well than it seems like Isreal will have to back off when iran gets their ICBM's unless they have like some Supersonic cruise missile that can shoot it down or something like that

The Israelis do have the Arrow missile series (Arrow 2 and 3) which are designed for intercepting SRBMs and MRBMs.

[Romanic Imperium]

Well than it seems like Isreal will have to back off when iran gets their ICBM's unless they have like some Supersonic cruise missile that can shoot it down or something like that

The Israelis do have the Arrow missile series (Arrow 2 and 3) which are designed for intercepting SRBMs and MRBMs.

But can they shoot down an ICBM?

Also are we all just pinning this on Isreal now or is their still other thoughts on the culprit

[Picairn]

But can they shoot down an ICBM?

Also are we all just pinning this on Isreal now or is their still other thoughts on the culprit

Probably not, but Iran acquiring ICBM capabilities are still a long way away, years in the making at least. Their current ballistic missile arsenal consists of the Shahab missile series and their upgraded variants, which are MRBMs.

[Portzania]

Is the Let's Go Bomb Tehran movement going to become a reality?

hopefully not

[HISPIDA]

The Israelis do have the Arrow missile series (Arrow 2 and 3) which are designed for intercepting SRBMs and MRBMs.

But can they shoot down an ICBM?

mmmgh

maybe? probably not. arrow 3's missiles are designed for exo-atmospheric interception (spaceflight), both to target ICBMs and satellites. the main problem is that arrow 3 wasn't designed for hypersonic threats, which is what the currently under development arrow 4 is for (particularly cruise missiles). iran announced last year that they had functional hypersonic missiles, so the main question is if that claim is real. if it's real, then it's unlikely that arrow 3 could defend against new iranian missiles, but arrow 3 could likely shut down a subsonic ICBM but the ICBM programs of basically every country that has them are hypersonic and travel at about mach 20 (20 times the speed of sound, about 7 km/s)

iran is still far off from ICBMs but hypersonic SR and MRBMs would probably be enough to outperform arrow 2 and arrow 3 and could pose a very serious threat if they're real and depending on how many iran has

[Picairn]

iran announced last year that they had functional hypersonic missiles, so the main question is if that claim is real. if it's real, then it's unlikely that arrow 3 could defend against new iranian missiles, but arrow 3 could likely shut down a subsonic ICBM but the ICBM programs of basically every country that has them are hypersonic and travel at about mach 20 (20 times the speed of sound, about 7 km/s)

iran is still far off from ICBMs but hypersonic SR and MRBMs would probably be enough to outperform arrow 2 and arrow 3 and could pose a very serious threat if they're real and depending on how many iran has

Iran claimed last year that they successfully built a new hypersonic ballistic missile, but there is no *visual* evidence that it exists or that tests of this missile have been carried out. Not to mention the Iranian government's tendency to exaggerate their weapon capabilities, like the "stealth jet" Qaher-313. So for all we know this "hypersonic missile" could very well be a single prototype sitting in a secret Iranian space program facility.

[HISPIDA]

iran announced last year that they had functional hypersonic missiles, so the main question is if that claim is real. if it's real, then it's unlikely that arrow 3 could defend against new iranian missiles, but arrow 3 could likely shut down a subsonic ICBM but the ICBM programs of basically every country that has them are hypersonic and travel at about mach 20 (20 times the speed of sound, about 7 km/s)

iran is still far off from ICBMs but hypersonic SR and MRBMs would probably be enough to outperform arrow 2 and arrow 3 and could pose a very serious threat if they're real and depending on how many iran has

Iran claimed last year that they successfully built a new hypersonic ballistic missile, but there is no *visual* evidence that it exists or that tests of this missile have been carried out. Not to mention the Iranian government's tendency to exaggerate their weapon capabilities, like the "stealth jet" Qaher-313. So for all we know this "hypersonic missile" could very well be a single prototype sitting in a secret Iranian space program facility.

i mean, fair. but if iran does have the capability (alongside backings from russia), i don't think it's terribly outlandish to imagine that iran could potentially have a sizable (or at least threatening) hypersonic arsenal in the next decade, especially when they're backed by russia (and i wouldn't be surprised if china starts getting chummier with iran in the coming years tbh, china doesn't have a lot of influence in the middle east compared to the pacific and africa and the middle east is arguably the most important place for emerging empires to exert influence over)

the real question is "will arrow 4 be operational before iran can utilize hypersonic missiles" which is still up in the air

[America-1960s]

I was hoping this was just another NationStates Roleplay being set up, until I saw that it was posted in General. *sigh*

[Gavierland]

ah, yes. serbia, the matchbox for WW2.

I think they meant wwI

It will be just a war of the anti-Russian coalition

Quite unlikely. With the US becoming occupied with russia. China might seize the chance to invade Taiwan and India. North Korea might cross the 38th parallel into South Korea. And most likely soldiers on peace keeping missions like those in suadi Arabia will be pulled out. In the case of the Saudis Iraq might take the chance to invade or iran might take the chance

Azerbaijan and big daddy turkey will take the chance to invade Armenia and Greece plus possibly the rest of Cyprus to solidify the existence of Northern Cyprus respectively