The Ukrainian War V: Tanks For The Memories

[The Rio Grande River Basin]

Interesting take I heard from someone in school:

The War in Ukraine is a religious war, according to said teacher, which can be solved by mandatory atheism.

I hate this timeline. The dumb takes it has produced has rotten my brain.

How does said teacher justify it as a religious war? What exactly are they defining as religion here, and how its a religious conflict?

This is why My Alt History is best.

[Raskana]

To be fair, Call of Duty's premise (Russia being capable of simultaneously fighting a civil war inside its borders, invading the Western US and most of Europe) was never not ridiculous.

Let alone that game where North Korea was the country invading the U.S…

It was supposed to be Red China, but politics huh...

[Adamede]

Now Russia can't even take New York, Ukraine.

They will if Ukraine retreats from Bakhmut, and idk about y'all but I don't like how high the chances of Ukraine retreating from Bakhmut is

I severly doubt the Ukrainian lines are going to collapse if Bakhmut is lost.

[The North Polish Union]

Any religious dimension to this conflict is entirely caused by the pre-existing political conflict, and the conflict cannot reasonably be viewed as religious in nature.

Aside from the explicitly religious overtones of their propaganda.

When hasn’t a religious conflict had an underlining economic or political context?

This feels like trying to clumsily force the understanding of the conflict into an area which you desire without regard for context.

The political conflict both predated and was almost certainly responsible for any religious dimensions to the conflict which came later.

That additional propagandistic overtones have been added since the beginning does not magically make this a religious conflict.

[Adamede]

How does said teacher justify it as a religious war? What exactly are they defining as religion here, and how its a religious conflict?

While I agree that it was a cartoonishly oversimplified shit take by the teacher, one can’t deny a religious dimension to the conflict. Russian propaganda specifically states they are fighting against “Satan” and Patriarch Kirill claims that all Russians who die fighting are guaranteed salvation as they are fighting a holy war against the enemies of God.

How is this a religious conflict? I don’t know. Ask the Patriarch, he’s way more qualified to talk about Christianity than I am.

Dont mistake religious rhetoric and justification for a religious cause.

[The Lone Alliance]

Seymour Hersh has published a fairly compelling account of the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines which blames US Navy divers planting remotely triggered mines with Norwegian assistance, using a NATO fleet exercise as cover

Yes just like the entire Osama Bin Ladin raid was an elaborate lie created by the US and Pakistan. Hersh has lost his touch and at this point he's simply a conspiracy theorist chasing his past glory and willing to listen to any idiot claiming to have proof to back his confirmation bias about all powerful US shadow ops.

Remember this is a guy who claim out saying that the entirety of US special forces command was made up of an ancient order of Assassins Creed like crusaders attempting to destroy the Islamic World and has spent the past decade going on Infowars and RT. He's fallen down the conspiracy theorist rabbit hole.

[Tarsonis]

They will if Ukraine retreats from Bakhmut, and idk about y'all but I don't like how high the chances of Ukraine retreating from Bakhmut is

I severly doubt the Ukrainian lines are going to collapse if Bakhmut is lost.

especially not when they've had this long to prepare for thar possibility

[The Two Jerseys]

I severly doubt the Ukrainian lines are going to collapse if Bakhmut is lost.

especially not when they've had this long to prepare for thar possibility

The Ukrainians probably built the Hindenburg Line behind Bakhmut by now...

[Lord Dominator]

Huge Wagner casualties have made Russian prisoners far less enthusiastic to join, leading to a collapse in recruitment rates. In addition, prison administrators are less cooperative, since Wagner's recruitment drives are taking away free slave labor for government-operated factories.

How enthusiastic were they before?

I would think the slave labor part of that probably is why

[Tarsonis]

Huge Wagner casualties have made Russian prisoners far less enthusiastic to join, leading to a collapse in recruitment rates. In addition, prison administrators are less cooperative, since Wagner's recruitment drives are taking away free slave labor for government-operated factories.

How enthusiastic were they before?

quite a bit really. Prigozhin had a good pitch before, and would get hundreds signing up. Words out it was all lies and now their recruitment is down 95%

[Spirit of Hope]

Seymour Hersh has published a fairly compelling account of the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines which blames US Navy divers planting remotely triggered mines with Norwegian assistance, using a NATO fleet exercise as cover

While certainly well written, the article is based on one anonymous source, who appears to have not provided any supporting documentation. Since he published this on his personal blog that means the story probably wasn't red teamed or checked by anyone else's. I'll wait for some verification before believing it.

[Great Britain eke Northern Ireland]

Any religious dimension to this conflict is entirely caused by the pre-existing political conflict, and the conflict cannot reasonably be viewed as religious in nature.

Aside from the explicitly religious overtones of their propaganda.

When hasn’t a religious conflict had an underlining economic or political context?

Both nations are strongly Orthodox countries, seemingly Ukraine more than Russia, so naturally Christianity will form part of their propaganda. Religion is actively part of Ukrainian life and the armed forces, with soldiery praying, being blessed and reading the Bible before combat, from what I’ve seen; crosses have been painted on Ukrainian vehicles, too.

The conflict isn’t entirely spiritual, it’s only that religion plays a significant role for many of the soldiery and the nations involved.

[Tarsonis]

Seymour Hersh has published a fairly compelling account of the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines which blames US Navy divers planting remotely triggered mines with Norwegian assistance, using a NATO fleet exercise as cover

While certainly well written, the article is based on one anonymous source, who appears to have not provided any supporting documentation. Since he published this on his personal blog that means the story probably wasn't red teamed or checked by anyone else's. I'll wait for some verification before believing it.

I don't have the source on hand but there was one article by an actual gas line engineer that explained it was an accident caused by Russia turning it off and then trying to turn it on again. the short of it is the gas has to be carefully controlled when it's transported under water to ensure particulates down build up, which didn't happen when they shut off the gas so 1 or several "corks" developed in the pipe and when Gazprom engineers opened the pipes to release pressure, those corks turned into projectiles, which sparked the gas and thus we get pipe explosions.

Far more plausible than super secret NATO commandos blowing up a pipe for absolutely no strategic reason.

[Picairn]

Huge Wagner casualties have made Russian prisoners far less enthusiastic to join, leading to a collapse in recruitment rates. In addition, prison administrators are less cooperative, since Wagner's recruitment drives are taking away free slave labor for government-operated factories.

How enthusiastic were they before?

According to one prisoner in a Urals penal colony, more than 300 were recruited from his colony in October last year, then it dropped to 20 in January.

[Picairn]

The situation in Bakhmut is precarious. The Bakhmut - Slovyansk M03 highway is operationally cut as Wagner has reached its vicinity from Blahodatne. Russian attacks on Ivanivske and the M03 highway itself were repulsed but the situation is bad. Some positions in Krasna Hora were reportedly abandoned by the Ukrainians.

The cordon is closing. As unfortunate as it is, I expect a Ukrainian order to retreat to be given soon, unless they want to be encircled.

[Democratic Communist Federation]

Ukraine attempting to separate from the Moscow Patriarchate is a notable piece of context for the conflict and Ukraine’s wider departure from the Russian world. The Patriarchate of Kyiv has gotten approval from the Patriarch of Constantinople, which upset Kirill, and he refuses to recognise the Patriarchate of Kyiv, even as it takes over more Ukrainian parishes.

In the Eastern Orthodox Church, whether Krill recognizes that Patriarchiate of Kyiv is irrelevant. He is free to expand his own patriarchiate into Ukraine or anywhere else that wants him; and the Patriarchiate of Kyiv is free to expand as well.

Bartholomew I is the Patriarch of Constantinople. His position, in Eastern Orthodoxy, is the closest office to the Roman Catholic Pope. (The two positions are also very different.) However, all that matters is the fact that Bartholomew I has recognized the Patriarchiate of Kyiv. For all intents and purposes that settles the matter. Kirill's "tantrum," so to speak, may be cathartic for him, but nothing more.

[Free Algerstonia]

Huge Wagner casualties have made Russian prisoners far less enthusiastic to join, leading to a collapse in recruitment rates. In addition, prison administrators are less cooperative, since Wagner's recruitment drives are taking away free slave labor for government-operated factories.

western globalist russophobic propaganda has made its way to the russian prison system, there are fifth columnists inside the russian government that are sabotaging this special military operation and dooming the russian people to discrimination and suffering at the hands of the NWO intelligence cabal, vladimir putin must temporarily launch a purge of subversive elements of questionable loyalty to the russian people and the resistance against the west so that the full strength of the russian federation can be realized and the little russians can be freed from volodymyr zelensky's coup junta

[Senkaku]

Seymour Hersh has published a fairly compelling account of the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines which blames US Navy divers planting remotely triggered mines with Norwegian assistance, using a NATO fleet exercise as cover

While certainly well written, the article is based on one anonymous source, who appears to have not provided any supporting documentation. Since he published this on his personal blog that means the story probably wasn't red teamed or checked by anyone else's. I'll wait for some verification before believing it.

Lots of reputable journalists use Substack these days, I don't think it's that weird-- and there certainly seems to be a high degree of alignment between public events/statements and his account of what was going on behind the scenes. I agree more corroboration would be nice, but I'm struggling to see what the means to get it are at this point, because it's not like the White House or the IC are suddenly going to go "haha yeah you got us, we did it" or let any officials speak on the record. It's getting enough pickup online that I'm sure other journalists will start sniffing around or contacting sources though, so hopefully there'll be more to confirm or debunk it soon. I expect not unlike previous stories that he's broken, though, it will take months or years before we get a definitive confirmation (definitive enough for some people, anyways).

[Northern Seleucia]

In Vuhledar, a Russian assault went wrong and a retreat happened as a result of the failure.

A Russian mechanized formation tries to assault a Ukrainian position through a minefield, before retreating. During the retreat, a BMP-3 hits a mine, the entire formation comes under Ukrainian artillery fire, and one of the T-80BVs is abandoned.

[Tarsonis]

In Vuhledar, a Russian assault went wrong and a retreat happened as a result of the failure.

A Russian mechanized formation tries to assault a Ukrainian position through a minefield, before retreating. During the retreat, a BMP-3 hits a mine, the entire formation comes under Ukrainian artillery fire, and one of the T-80BVs is abandoned.

Well the Russians there ridiculously inept, but that artillery fire was pretty useless too. Not a round came within 50 yds.

[Spirit of Hope]

While certainly well written, the article is based on one anonymous source, who appears to have not provided any supporting documentation. Since he published this on his personal blog that means the story probably wasn't red teamed or checked by anyone else's. I'll wait for some verification before believing it.

Lots of reputable journalists use Substack these days, I don't think it's that weird-- and there certainly seems to be a high degree of alignment between public events/statements and his account of what was going on behind the scenes. I agree more corroboration would be nice, but I'm struggling to see what the means to get it are at this point, because it's not like the White House or the IC are suddenly going to go "haha yeah you got us, we did it" or let any officials speak on the record. It's getting enough pickup online that I'm sure other journalists will start sniffing around or contacting sources though, so hopefully there'll be more to confirm or debunk it soon. I expect not unlike previous stories that he's broken, though, it will take months or years before we get a definitive confirmation (definitive enough for some people, anyways).

Credible people can be on substack, I'm not saying that is weird, what I am saying is that he is using a singular anonymous source and that apparently no one else has seen this source or verified it besides him. For example at a traditional newspaper the editor would generally be aware of a writers sources and help to make a determination on if they were credible enough to trust or not as the sole basis for your entire story. On a large enough story you may also have a red team whose whole job is to try and pick apart the story and verify that it is credible. Neither of these appears to be the case here.

Basically its a person online going "I've got a source no one else has, trust me," and I'm disinclined to trust under those circumstances. Especially an author, who has been tricked by hoax documents and has written false information in the past. Sure he has gotten some stuff correct, but he has also gotten things wrong.

I find the pushback from the IC and White House to be rather telling, with regards to intelligence operations that are even remotely credible you generally get a "can not confirm or deny," not “This is false and complete fiction.”

As to alignments of timelines, it isn't that hard to write a story that makes them align.

[Tarsonis]

Lots of reputable journalists use Substack these days, I don't think it's that weird-- and there certainly seems to be a high degree of alignment between public events/statements and his account of what was going on behind the scenes. I agree more corroboration would be nice, but I'm struggling to see what the means to get it are at this point, because it's not like the White House or the IC are suddenly going to go "haha yeah you got us, we did it" or let any officials speak on the record. It's getting enough pickup online that I'm sure other journalists will start sniffing around or contacting sources though, so hopefully there'll be more to confirm or debunk it soon. I expect not unlike previous stories that he's broken, though, it will take months or years before we get a definitive confirmation (definitive enough for some people, anyways).

Credible people can be on substack, I'm not saying that is weird, what I am saying is that he is using a singular anonymous source and that apparently no one else has seen this source or verified it besides him. For example at a traditional newspaper the editor would generally be aware of a writers sources and help to make a determination on if they were credible enough to trust or not as the sole basis for your entire story. On a large enough story you may also have a red team whose whole job is to try and pick apart the story and verify that it is credible. Neither of these appears to be the case here.

Basically its a person online going "I've got a source no one else has, trust me," and I'm disinclined to trust under those circumstances. Especially an author, who has been tricked by hoax documents and has written false information in the past. Sure he has gotten some stuff correct, but he has also gotten things wrong.

I find the pushback from the IC and White House to be rather telling, with regards to intelligence operations that are even remotely credible you generally get a "can not confirm or deny," not “This is false and complete fiction.”

As to alignments of timelines, it isn't that hard to write a story that makes them align.

BRB off to binge all 3 seasons of Newsroom.
(Not a joke, seriously love that show, it's cancellation was CRIMINAL!)

in the mean time, again, accident due to Russian incompetence remains by far the most plausible explanation.

[The North Polish Union]

Ukraine attempting to separate from the Moscow Patriarchate is a notable piece of context for the conflict and Ukraine’s wider departure from the Russian world. The Patriarchate of Kyiv has gotten approval from the Patriarch of Constantinople, which upset Kirill, and he refuses to recognise the Patriarchate of Kyiv, even as it takes over more Ukrainian parishes.

In the Eastern Orthodox Church, whether Krill recognizes that Patriarchiate of Kyiv is irrelevant. He is free to expand his own patriarchiate into Ukraine or anywhere else that wants him; and the Patriarchiate of Kyiv is free to expand as well.

Bartholomew I is the Patriarch of Constantinople. His position, in Eastern Orthodoxy, is the closest office to the Roman Catholic Pope. (The two positions are also very different.) However, all that matters is the fact that Bartholomew I has recognized the Patriarchiate of Kyiv. For all intents and purposes that settles the matter. Kirill's "tantrum," so to speak, may be cathartic for him, but nothing more.

This is simply a misunderstanding of how the orthodox churches are structured. I'm Catholic so perhaps some other NS users can explain it better, but patriarchates are not simply allowed to expand into other regions as they please if those regions are already under the jurisdiction of another patriarchate.

As an example, the Greek patriarchate based in Alexandria Egypt is formally the patriarchate of "Alexandria and All Africa". Although perhaps one could argue that the early bishops who decided on this title may have only considered Roman Africa in this, the title confers authority over "All Africa". During the XX Century members of other orthodox groups emigrated to various parts of Africa and established churches. This created controversy with the Alexandria patriarchate and it was finally decided that all Orthodox churches on the African continent fell under Alexandria's jurisdiction.

Here's where my knowledge gets sketchy and someone with more expertise would be appreciated. Since Moscow is in a state of schism with Constantinople and Kyiv, they probably could in a practical manner expand/maintain churches in Kyiv's ecclesiastical jurisdiction, but I would imagine that the eventual transfer of those churches to the appropriate jurisdiction would be necessary for ending the schism

[Senkaku]

Credible people can be on substack, I'm not saying that is weird, what I am saying is that he is using a singular anonymous source and that apparently no one else has seen this source or verified it besides him.

Some additional documentation would definitely go along way to assuaging my doubts that this is just one dude with a Substack trading off his old reputation, but part of what I mean when I point out that plenty of credible journalists use the platform is that it’s not clear to me that he definitely hasn’t had any editors assisting or a red team helping verify. Hopefully in the coming days the man himself will speak further on the subject and give us some insight into his process. If it is just a one-man hatchet job I’ll be mildly disappointed— that the Navy divers didn’t get to do anything exciting, that Seymour Hersh has sunk so far, and that the Russians really are that fucking stupid.

I find the pushback from the IC and White House to be rather telling, with regards to intelligence operations that are even remotely credible you generally get a "can not confirm or deny," not “This is false and complete fiction.”

Never believe anything till it’s been officially denied, I guess? If they really didn’t do it, they wouldn’t care about the implications of neither confirming nor denying, and they’d do that, as is standard protocol— in this case, they furiously, explicitly, and promptly denied it, because even refusing to confirm or deny would be tantamount to admitting to committing an act of war against Germany & Denmark and might be enough to at least get some ambassadors summoned. The explicit denial seems like much more of a story, although admittedly it could just be a story about dumb or inexperienced press secretaries and PR people rather than covert plots to blow up pipelines. Picking a definitive response, rather than sending no response at all, could be an indication— it isn’t necessarily, the standard playbook of not confirming or denying works well enough for plenty of operations (usually in the Middle East, Africa, or Latin America, where reporting on the subject will get much less north-transatlantic pickup), but it does seem unusual.

As to alignments of timelines, it isn't that hard to write a story that makes them align.

Sure, I’m not saying it’s definitive, just that the piece is compelling and we should be on the watch for updates to it from any party.

[Spirit of Hope]

Credible people can be on substack, I'm not saying that is weird, what I am saying is that he is using a singular anonymous source and that apparently no one else has seen this source or verified it besides him. For example at a traditional newspaper the editor would generally be aware of a writers sources and help to make a determination on if they were credible enough to trust or not as the sole basis for your entire story. On a large enough story you may also have a red team whose whole job is to try and pick apart the story and verify that it is credible. Neither of these appears to be the case here.

Basically its a person online going "I've got a source no one else has, trust me," and I'm disinclined to trust under those circumstances. Especially an author, who has been tricked by hoax documents and has written false information in the past. Sure he has gotten some stuff correct, but he has also gotten things wrong.

I find the pushback from the IC and White House to be rather telling, with regards to intelligence operations that are even remotely credible you generally get a "can not confirm or deny," not “This is false and complete fiction.”

As to alignments of timelines, it isn't that hard to write a story that makes them align.

BRB off to binge all 3 seasons of Newsroom.
(Not a joke, seriously love that show, it's cancellation was CRIMINAL!)

in the mean time, again, accident due to Russian incompetence remains by far the most plausible explanation.

Meh, Sorkin isn't great at writing conservatives and is a bit preachy about the right way to protest. Plus the Margaret, Don, Jim love triangle goes on a little long.

On the topic though, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. That the Biden administration, which hasn't given ATACMS or modern combat aircraft to Ukraine for fear of escalation with Russia, would plan to directly attack Russian infrastructure is an extraordinary claim. Especially since Germany has put a lot of money and political capital into that infrastructure and there was very little indication before the war that Germany would be ok with completely closing off gas imports from Russia, so not only is it a major escalation against Russia it is potentially a major destabilizing event in NATO when you least want it. Finally it isn't an operation you would likely to be able to keep secret for long, involved countries are going to investigate the destruction of their billion dollar infrastructure projects to see what happened.

Credible people can be on substack, I'm not saying that is weird, what I am saying is that he is using a singular anonymous source and that apparently no one else has seen this source or verified it besides him.

Some additional documentation would definitely go along way to assuaging my doubts that this is just one dude with a Substack trading off his old reputation, but part of what I mean when I point out that plenty of credible journalists use the platform is that it’s not clear to me that he definitely hasn’t had any editors assisting or a red team helping verify. Hopefully in the coming days the man himself will speak further on the subject and give us some insight into his process. If it is just a one-man hatchet job I’ll be mildly disappointed— that the Navy divers didn’t get to do anything exciting, that Seymour Hersh has sunk so far, and that the Russians really are that fucking stupid.

I find the pushback from the IC and White House to be rather telling, with regards to intelligence operations that are even remotely credible you generally get a "can not confirm or deny," not “This is false and complete fiction.”

Never believe anything till it’s been officially denied, I guess? If they really didn’t do it, they wouldn’t care about the implications of neither confirming nor denying, and they’d do that, as is standard protocol— in this case, they furiously, explicitly, and promptly denied it, because even refusing to confirm or deny would be tantamount to admitting to committing an act of war against Germany & Denmark and might be enough to at least get some ambassadors summoned. The explicit denial seems like much more of a story, although admittedly it could just be a story about dumb or inexperienced press secretaries and PR people rather than covert plots to blow up pipelines. Picking a definitive response, rather than sending no response at all, could be an indication— it isn’t necessarily, the standard playbook of not confirming or denying works well enough for plenty of operations (usually in the Middle East, Africa, or Latin America, where reporting on the subject will get much less north-transatlantic pickup), but it does seem unusual.

As to alignments of timelines, it isn't that hard to write a story that makes them align.

Sure, I’m not saying it’s definitive, just that the piece is compelling and we should be on the watch for updates to it from any party.

It's compelling because it is well written. I've read lots of compelling things that are well written and wrong. See above for some more of my thoughts.