The Ukrainian War V: Tanks For The Memories

[German-Eurpean Union]

The military situation inside Bakhmut itself isn't going well, the latest maps all point to Ukraine losing nearly all of the city and only a toehold in the southwestern area remains.

Oh. I'd only recently heard that Ukraine was busting ass in Bakhmut.

It is on its flanks tho

[Democratic Poopland]

I feel it needs to be understood that Wagner isn’t a good military force, but looks good compared to the rest of the Russian military, which appears to be seven Vodkensky Conscriptoviches stuffed in one Lada, with 9 bottles of stolen spirits, a washing machine, and huffing glue.

Perfect description of the Russian military.

[Adamede]

Yah I wouldn’t count Ukraine out just yet militarily. I sincerely doubt that the Russians long term will be able to hold the territory they’ve gained since the start of the war and over playing their hand has not only weakened them militarily but strengthened Ukraine in turn, putting the Donbas and even Crimea at risk of Ukrainian liberation.

Ukraine has been strengthened relative to Russia, but in absolute terms it’s been and is being devastated. Its best and brightest are being slaughtered, its economy throttled, and its cities turned to rubble. If the Ukrainians liberate Crimea and the Donbas, it’s going to come at the cost of tens of thousands more casualties, and if the Russians cling on to even a single oblast, revanchism is going to rear its head.

Hence the necessty of continued Western military upport.

We also don’t know how the postwar political situation in Russia will shape up, but if one of Putin’s security men or just some random garden-variety nationalist ends up taking over, Ukraine is going to be living under permanent threat.

Which is no different to Ukraine's position before the war, and soemthing multiple democratic states have to deal with. Again military build up is not something antithetical to democracy. If anything pacifisim is the greater threat to a democratic society.

Croatia seems to me to be pretty democratic.

Well, now it does. Pretty long and bloody road, though.

The road to democracy is long and often bloody.

And it took South Korea a long time to get there but their democratization hasn’t come at the cost of their military preparedness.

Yeah, and they “only” went through one civilian and two military dictatorships to get there, plus a bunch of impeached presidents under the 6th Republic. Sounds like we agree Ukraine is not in for a fun time for the next few decades.

You've missed the point there.

Ukrainians aspire most of all membership in the EU and NATO and that is going to require them to improve their government and society, not to mention the massive fucking push for societal and political improvements from the Ukrainian people themselves.

And I aspire to have cum gutters; whether I’m actually going to eat right and do my core exercises is dependent on factors besides mere aspiration.

And yet Ukraine has made more strides towards that than I'm sure you have, and they certainly have more incentives, both inner and outward.

Democracy has often been forged in war, and the Ukrainians have been exceeding my expectations for the entire war.

They’ve basically banned dissent

Yes because treason is the same thing as acceptiable dissent in democratic societies. Like that's such a fucking stretch I'm assuming you pulled something.

and mobilized the entire population to sustain a war economy—

Something that democratic societies have done multiple times before.

their achievements on the battlefield and their hopes for the future are admirable, but I think you’re counting chickens before they hatch.

You seem to be under the impression that democracies are soemthing that can only exist in a peaceful context and that any moves to defend yourself is self destructive. Would you rather that Ukraine just roll over? I'm sure their conquest by the Russians would totally improve their chnces of becoming a true democratic society.

[Adamede]

After victory in this war, I hope that Ukraine becomes a stronger democracy in the long-term.

This is, realistically speaking, impossible and was very likely never going to happen. For one thing Ukraine has been mired in corruption since it's independence and possibly even before the dissolution of the USSR, for another Ukrainian nationalism has been a driving force in Ukrainian politics and through Euromaidan won a vital victory in effectively disenfranchising the large Russian minority in the country. The subsequent Russian interference and later invasion has only added fuel to the fire and once Russian forces have been driven out the Kyivan government will begin cracking down on the Russian minority even further through state-sanctioned persecution motivated largely for the sake of power consolidation and supported by a vengeful population. An exodus of native-born Russians will begin thereafter but even with this the government in Kyiv will not relent and will continue to push through policies to reduce Russians to second class citizenship while using the excuse of national security to justify the increasingly authoritarian measures needed to do so. The corruption already present in the Kyivan government will only entrench, now fully and openly backed by the West and maintaining a veneer of respect for liberal democratic values.

The situation will be worse in Russia where the persecutions undertaken by Kyiv will be used by Russian nationalists to further anti-Ukrainian sentiment, and the countries will remain bitter enemies for the next few decades. Russia will likely descend even further into despotism regardless of who is at the helm of the Russian state as the Russian nationalists will still largely be in control with or without Putin. With two rival nationalist groups, who have a centuries-long hatred for one another, leading neighboring countries the violence will very likely not stop anytime soon even if every Russian soldier is evicted from the Donbass and Crimea. There is no desire for peace in either Kyiv or Moskva; the Russian nationalists have firmly convinced their people that they are fighting the West by proxy in Ukraine, and Ukrainian nationalists have firmly convinced their people that Russians are the enemy and always will be. Cross-border violence will likely continue for some time and those of us who are still young will probably be graying by the time serious attempts at mending these wounds are made. Generations will surely be born knowing of the people on the other side of the border as only "the enemy" who must be destroyed, and this indoctrination will continue for decades to come.

This is the unfortunate reality of nationalism: it can bring countries together by convincing them to hate and dehumanize foreigners, particularly neighbors who've committed grievances against them or their ancestors. The humanitarian disaster of the Soviet Union's demise continues unabated, and will continue for decades more to come.

I see someone has fallen for the Kremlin narrative.

[Adamede]

The military situation inside Bakhmut itself isn't going well, the latest maps all point to Ukraine losing nearly all of the city and only a toehold in the southwestern area remains.

That's been the situation in Bakhmut for a while now.

[The Rio Grande River Basin]

This is, realistically speaking, impossible and was very likely never going to happen. For one thing Ukraine has been mired in corruption since it's independence and possibly even before the dissolution of the USSR, for another Ukrainian nationalism has been a driving force in Ukrainian politics and through Euromaidan won a vital victory in effectively disenfranchising the large Russian minority in the country. The subsequent Russian interference and later invasion has only added fuel to the fire and once Russian forces have been driven out the Kyivan government will begin cracking down on the Russian minority even further through state-sanctioned persecution motivated largely for the sake of power consolidation and supported by a vengeful population. An exodus of native-born Russians will begin thereafter but even with this the government in Kyiv will not relent and will continue to push through policies to reduce Russians to second class citizenship while using the excuse of national security to justify the increasingly authoritarian measures needed to do so. The corruption already present in the Kyivan government will only entrench, now fully and openly backed by the West and maintaining a veneer of respect for liberal democratic values.

The situation will be worse in Russia where the persecutions undertaken by Kyiv will be used by Russian nationalists to further anti-Ukrainian sentiment, and the countries will remain bitter enemies for the next few decades. Russia will likely descend even further into despotism regardless of who is at the helm of the Russian state as the Russian nationalists will still largely be in control with or without Putin. With two rival nationalist groups, who have a centuries-long hatred for one another, leading neighboring countries the violence will very likely not stop anytime soon even if every Russian soldier is evicted from the Donbass and Crimea. There is no desire for peace in either Kyiv or Moskva; the Russian nationalists have firmly convinced their people that they are fighting the West by proxy in Ukraine, and Ukrainian nationalists have firmly convinced their people that Russians are the enemy and always will be. Cross-border violence will likely continue for some time and those of us who are still young will probably be graying by the time serious attempts at mending these wounds are made. Generations will surely be born knowing of the people on the other side of the border as only "the enemy" who must be destroyed, and this indoctrination will continue for decades to come.

This is the unfortunate reality of nationalism: it can bring countries together by convincing them to hate and dehumanize foreigners, particularly neighbors who've committed grievances against them or their ancestors. The humanitarian disaster of the Soviet Union's demise continues unabated, and will continue for decades more to come.

I see someone has fallen for the Kremlin narrative.

Tankies gotta tankie.

[Adamede]

I'd say it was worth defending due to its high casualties to the Russians.

That assumes the Ukrainians didn't also have massive causalities.

Also What map do you people use?

Yah estimates are that Ukraine suffered one fifth the casualties in Bakhmut that the Russians have, at least according to western sources that I trust more than the Russians.

[Bradfordville]

That assumes the Ukrainians didn't also have massive causalities.

Also What map do you people use?

Yah estimates are that Ukraine suffered one fifth the casualties in Bakhmut that the Russians have, at least according to western sources that I trust more than the Russians.

The sources I would trust most are British or American. The Ukrainians are obviously going to downplay their casualty rate and Russia will be like "we killed 999000 (alot) ukrainians," but when the British say "X amount of Russians are actually dead," it tells me that most likely that's the real number. Same for when they give Ukrainian casualty estimates.

[El Lazaro]

Quick, let’s find something controversial so we can get the thread past 500 pages before Farn gets online

[The Rio Grande River Basin]

Quick, let’s find something controversial so we can get the thread past 500 pages before Farn gets online

Uh...Putin did nothing wrong.

[El Lazaro]

Quick, let’s find something controversial so we can get the thread past 500 pages before Farn gets online

Uh...Putin did nothing wrong.

Romania needs to assassinate Putin

[The Rio Grande River Basin]

Uh...Putin did nothing wrong.

Romania needs to rob Putin

Fixed./jk

[El Lazaro]

Romania needs to rob Putin

Fixed./jk

Romania needs to deploy nuclear weapons against you

[The Rio Grande River Basin]

Fixed./jk

Romania needs to deploy nuclear robber grandmas against you

Fixed./jk

[El Lazaro]

Romania needs to deploy nuclear robber grandmas against you

Fixed./jk

Ok, this is grounds for WW3

[Senkaku]

I see someone has fallen for the Kremlin narrative.

Tankies gotta tankie.

I don't understand why anyone who supports the Ukrainian war effort is also expected to take it as a matter of religious faith that the country will magically become a thriving democracy upon victory, when history and present circumstances all tell us this isn't necessarily likely. I'm hopeful Ukrainian civil society will step up and prove me wrong, but I don't see a lot of factors that would lead me to put money on it right now.

Yeah, and they “only” went through one civilian and two military dictatorships to get there, plus a bunch of impeached presidents under the 6th Republic. Sounds like we agree Ukraine is not in for a fun time for the next few decades.

You've missed the point there.

...then what the fuck was the point? I predicted Ukraine was unlikely to become a much stronger democracy after the end of the war; you offered up the counter-example of South Korea, which I think perfectly illustrates my point. South Korea has been under multiple military dictatorships within living memory, and given the political turmoil that several administrations of the 6th Republic have experienced and the influence of chaebols, the Moonies, and the US on their politics, I think it might be a stretch to say it's a well-consolidated democracy or that there's no risk of backsliding. The jury isn't out yet, either; another war with the North or a general regional conflict involving China are still possible, because as I suspect will occur in Ukraine, the end of the Korean War did not settle all the political questions that were being contested during the fighting. Whether either of those scenarios would strengthen South Korean democracy is impossible to say right now, but I wouldn't automatically say that they would.

They’ve basically banned dissent

Yes because treason is the same thing as acceptiable dissent in democratic societies. Like that's such a fucking stretch I'm assuming you pulled something.

I'm not saying they shouldn't have done it; this is war, after all. But if you look at how wartime restrictions on speech and politics have played out in other poorly-consolidated democracies/oligarchies-- like the US itself, for instance, or South Korea-- I think it's reasonable to fear that once peace comes, people may continue punishing acceptable dissent as if it were still wartime sedition.

Would you rather that Ukraine just roll over?

It's so tedious that this is your only line whenever anyone in this thread challenges you on pretty much anything.

[Relikai]

Tankies gotta tankie.

I don't understand why anyone who supports the Ukrainian war effort is also expected to take it as a matter of religious faith that the country will magically become a thriving democracy upon victory, when history and present circumstances all tell us this isn't necessarily likely. I'm hopeful Ukrainian civil society will step up and prove me wrong, but I don't see a lot of factors that would lead me to put money on it right now.

You've missed the point there.

...then what the fuck was the point? I predicted Ukraine was unlikely to become a much stronger democracy after the end of the war; you offered up the counter-example of South Korea, which I think perfectly illustrates my point. South Korea has been under multiple military dictatorships within living memory, and given the political turmoil that several administrations of the 6th Republic have experienced and the influence of chaebols, the Moonies, and the US on their politics, I think it might be a stretch to say it's a well-consolidated democracy or that there's no risk of backsliding. The jury isn't out yet, either; another war with the North or a general regional conflict involving China are still possible, because as I suspect will occur in Ukraine, the end of the Korean War did not settle all the political questions that were being contested during the fighting. Whether either of those scenarios would strengthen South Korean democracy is impossible to say right now, but I wouldn't automatically say that they would.

Yes because treason is the same thing as acceptiable dissent in democratic societies. Like that's such a fucking stretch I'm assuming you pulled something.

I'm not saying they shouldn't have done it; this is war, after all. But if you look at how wartime restrictions on speech and politics have played out in other poorly-consolidated democracies/oligarchies-- like the US itself, for instance, or South Korea-- I think it's reasonable to fear that once peace comes, people may continue punishing acceptable dissent as if it were still wartime sedition.

Would you rather that Ukraine just roll over?

It's so tedious that this is your only line whenever anyone in this thread challenges you on pretty much anything.

It's funny how some can only call opponents to their train of thought 'tankies' to the point of ad nauseum.

And bring Twitterlogic here via "Oh you don't like pepper so you'd rather have salt all over your soup?"

[Bradfordville]

Quick, let’s find something controversial so we can get the thread past 500 pages before Farn gets online

I dedicated my pineapple pizza to volydymr zelensky.

[New Visayan Islands]

New thread, this way. Thread locked, move along.

New Visayan Islands
Game Moderator