The Ukrainian War V: Tanks For The Memories

[Hurtful Thoughts]

Hey, remember when I wrote this?

Shoot, what did I miss everyone?
I had a twelve-hour shift on the ambulance and there were a lot of emergency calls (plus I'm just a student so I was being sent everywhere because wHy nOt) so I wasn't online today (and probably won't be tomorrow)
Quick rundown of the conversations and major events of the day as I do paperwork.

Arguing that if Russia invading Ukraine and committing genocide is justified that China could just as easily fabricate a pretense to annex Baikal and Vladivostok.

Or that St Petersburg belongs to Finland.

It's happening. Russia just lost Vladivstok Naval base to the PLA-Navy.

[Peacetime]

After victory in this war, I hope that Ukraine becomes a stronger democracy in the long-term.

[Senkaku]

Hey, remember when I wrote this?

Arguing that if Russia invading Ukraine and committing genocide is justified that China could just as easily fabricate a pretense to annex Baikal and Vladivostok.

Or that St Petersburg belongs to Finland.

It's happening. Russia just lost Vladivstok Naval base to the PLA-Navy.

I have no idea what this source even is, but that’s not even what it says, it just says they’re opening it up to cross-border container traffic from Jilin (kind of weird and astonishing that it hadn’t been previously tbh). Literally doesn’t say a thing about the PLA Navy basing anything there, it just mentions that it’s also the home of the Russian Pacific Fleet.

[Tarsonis]

Hey, remember when I wrote this?

Arguing that if Russia invading Ukraine and committing genocide is justified that China could just as easily fabricate a pretense to annex Baikal and Vladivostok.

Or that St Petersburg belongs to Finland.

It's happening. Russia just lost Vladivstok Naval base to the PLA-Navy.

Hardly.


Russia has opened up Vladivostok to Chinese trade. while it is an indication of what we all knew would happen, Russia becoming more and more economically subjugated to China, claims of annexation are overblown.

[Relikai]

Hey, remember when I wrote this?

Arguing that if Russia invading Ukraine and committing genocide is justified that China could just as easily fabricate a pretense to annex Baikal and Vladivostok.

Or that St Petersburg belongs to Finland.

It's happening. Russia just lost Vladivstok Naval base to the PLA-Navy.

How on earth did you come.to this conclusion lol

[Picairn]

Hey, remember when I wrote this?

It's happening. Russia just lost Vladivstok Naval base to the PLA-Navy.

> Opening up to Chinese trade equals Chinese ownership

By this standard, San Francisco is a 40-year-old Chinese colony.

[Galloism]

So, I’m going to presume (barring other evidence) that Ukraine would be helped by F-16s, since they want them.

But I’d like a short explanation why if anyone has one. It’s my understanding Ukraine and Russia both have deployed enough AntiAircraft even the aliens in Independence Day would struggle to survive.

[Hurtful Thoughts]

So, I’m going to presume (barring other evidence) that Ukraine would be helped by F-16s, since they want them.

But I’d like a short explanation why if anyone has one. It’s my understanding Ukraine and Russia both have deployed enough AntiAircraft even the aliens in Independence Day would struggle to survive.

F-16 with HARM Targeting System is a chad against enemy anti-air.

[Galloism]

So, I’m going to presume (barring other evidence) that Ukraine would be helped by F-16s, since they want them.

But I’d like a short explanation why if anyone has one. It’s my understanding Ukraine and Russia both have deployed enough AntiAircraft even the aliens in Independence Day would struggle to survive.

F-16 with HARM Targeting System is a chad against enemy anti-air.

Please expand?

[Senkaku]

So, I’m going to presume (barring other evidence) that Ukraine would be helped by F-16s, since they want them.

But I’d like a short explanation why if anyone has one.

More dakka more betta

After victory in this war, I hope that Ukraine becomes a stronger democracy in the long-term.

Given the shapes that “victory” seems likely to take for them atp, I wouldn’t put money on it. Any bit of land the Russians hang onto is going to understandably inspire violent Ukrainian revanchism, and even if they take everything back, the traumatic memories and constant feeling of the threat of Russia initiating another war is going to hang over Ukrainian politics for the next century at least. Democracy and open societies don’t usually play well with militarism and intense nationalist sentiment.

[Querria]

It’s my understanding Ukraine and Russia both have deployed enough AntiAircraft even the aliens in Independence Day would struggle to survive.

Damn, that's a lot of firepower.

[Spirit of Hope]

So, I’m going to presume (barring other evidence) that Ukraine would be helped by F-16s, since they want them.

But I’d like a short explanation why if anyone has one. It’s my understanding Ukraine and Russia both have deployed enough AntiAircraft even the aliens in Independence Day would struggle to survive.

There are multiple reasons.

First, and in some ways foremost, is that Ukrainian ground based air defense may not be able to survive long term. A lot of their systems are legacy Soviet systems for which there is limited to no production outside of Russia so as the war continues Ukraine will have to limit the use of those systems. While western provided systems are helping here another potential solution would be to step up use of aircraft to intercept Russian aircraft and missiles. Unfortunately Ukraines current aircraft have the same issue as it's ground based systems, they are old Soviet systems largely reliant on Russia for logistical support and are heavily outclassed by current Russian systems. So sending F-16 would allow Ukraine to better defend itself by upgrading the technical ability of Ukraine and by making Ukraine less reliant on old Soviet systems.

Second, ground based air defense isn't perfect and can be suppressed or destroyed. However Ukraine doesn't have systems all that capable of conducting these missions. The F-16 while not the perfect platform by itself would upgrade the capabilities of Ukraine to conduct suppression of air defense missions.

Third the F-16 is capable of carrying a large number of munitions, including smart munitions, that currently would be difficult for Ukraine to use. Some of these munitions could be used without being engaged by air defense while others would put the aircraft at risk, but that may be worth it if it supports critical battlefield operations.

Finally, the provision of aircraft is a rather dramatic show of support to Ukraine. This demonstrates to allies, third parties, and Russia how far the west is willing to go to support Ukraine. If Russian strategy relies on western support drying up eventually this indicates the support won't dry up soon and forces Russia to recalculate.

[Hurtful Thoughts]

F-16 with HARM Targeting System is a chad against enemy anti-air.

Please expand?

In the USAF's own words:

Pilots designate targets on the HARM Attack Display for launch. Upon firing, the HTS derived target information is sent to the HARM missile. The precision targeting capability of the R7 pod allows employment of various PGMs using an aircraft datalink system to quickly identify and target threats from any PGM-carrying platform on the network. Pilots can also datalink precision targeting coordinates to other F-16s or to the RC-135 Rivet Joint.

Current MiG-29 HARM missions require pre-programmed frequencies, while the F-16 can work with ELINT data collection in realtime and even provide self-defense and continue to provide targeting-data to other aircraft in the grid even after going winchester on all racks.

Secondly, if you dig a little deeper, it also means it can achieve a GPS coordinate to bomb that can be fed through the chain of command, so you can just start lobbing dumb munitions or even artillery at enemy SAM sites with no loss in precision.

Or it can lase a target for a MiG-29 to bomb.

[Adamede]

So, I’m going to presume (barring other evidence) that Ukraine would be helped by F-16s, since they want them.

But I’d like a short explanation why if anyone has one.

More dakka more betta

After victory in this war, I hope that Ukraine becomes a stronger democracy in the long-term.

Given the shapes that “victory” seems likely to take for them atp, I wouldn’t put money on it. Any bit of land the Russians hang onto is going to understandably inspire violent Ukrainian revanchism, and even if they take everything back, the traumatic memories and constant feeling of the threat of Russia initiating another war is going to hang over Ukrainian politics for the next century at least. Democracy and open societies don’t usually play well with militarism and intense nationalist sentiment.

Yah I wouldn’t count Ukraine out just yet militarily. I sincerely doubt that the Russians long term will be able to hold the territory they’ve gained since the start of the war and over playing their hand has not only weakened them militarily but strengthened Ukraine in turn, putting the Donbas and even Crimea at risk of Ukrainian liberation.

Croatia seems to me to be pretty democratic. And it took South Korea a long time to get there but their democratization hasn’t come at the cost of their military preparedness. Ukrainians aspire most of all membership in the EU and NATO and that is going to require them to improve their government and society, not to mention the massive fucking push for societal and political improvements from the Ukrainian people themselves.

Democracy has often been forged in war, and the Ukrainians have been exceeding my expectations for the entire war.

[Senkaku]

Yah I wouldn’t count Ukraine out just yet militarily. I sincerely doubt that the Russians long term will be able to hold the territory they’ve gained since the start of the war and over playing their hand has not only weakened them militarily but strengthened Ukraine in turn, putting the Donbas and even Crimea at risk of Ukrainian liberation.

Ukraine has been strengthened relative to Russia, but in absolute terms it’s been and is being devastated. Its best and brightest are being slaughtered, its economy throttled, and its cities turned to rubble. If the Ukrainians liberate Crimea and the Donbas, it’s going to come at the cost of tens of thousands more casualties, and if the Russians cling on to even a single oblast, revanchism is going to rear its head. We also don’t know how the postwar political situation in Russia will shape up, but if one of Putin’s security men or just some random garden-variety nationalist ends up taking over, Ukraine is going to be living under permanent threat.

Croatia seems to me to be pretty democratic.

Well, now it does. Pretty long and bloody road, though.

And it took South Korea a long time to get there but their democratization hasn’t come at the cost of their military preparedness.

Yeah, and they “only” went through one civilian and two military dictatorships to get there, plus a bunch of impeached presidents under the 6th Republic. Sounds like we agree Ukraine is not in for a fun time for the next few decades.

Ukrainians aspire most of all membership in the EU and NATO and that is going to require them to improve their government and society, not to mention the massive fucking push for societal and political improvements from the Ukrainian people themselves.

And I aspire to have cum gutters; whether I’m actually going to eat right and do my core exercises is dependent on factors besides mere aspiration.

Democracy has often been forged in war, and the Ukrainians have been exceeding my expectations for the entire war.

They’ve basically banned dissent and mobilized the entire population to sustain a war economy— their achievements on the battlefield and their hopes for the future are admirable, but I think you’re counting chickens before they hatch.

[Primitive Communism]

After victory in this war, I hope that Ukraine becomes a stronger democracy in the long-term.

This is, realistically speaking, impossible and was very likely never going to happen. For one thing Ukraine has been mired in corruption since it's independence and possibly even before the dissolution of the USSR, for another Ukrainian nationalism has been a driving force in Ukrainian politics and through Euromaidan won a vital victory in effectively disenfranchising the large Russian minority in the country. The subsequent Russian interference and later invasion has only added fuel to the fire and once Russian forces have been driven out the Kyivan government will begin cracking down on the Russian minority even further through state-sanctioned persecution motivated largely for the sake of power consolidation and supported by a vengeful population. An exodus of native-born Russians will begin thereafter but even with this the government in Kyiv will not relent and will continue to push through policies to reduce Russians to second class citizenship while using the excuse of national security to justify the increasingly authoritarian measures needed to do so. The corruption already present in the Kyivan government will only entrench, now fully and openly backed by the West and maintaining a veneer of respect for liberal democratic values.

The situation will be worse in Russia where the persecutions undertaken by Kyiv will be used by Russian nationalists to further anti-Ukrainian sentiment, and the countries will remain bitter enemies for the next few decades. Russia will likely descend even further into despotism regardless of who is at the helm of the Russian state as the Russian nationalists will still largely be in control with or without Putin. With two rival nationalist groups, who have a centuries-long hatred for one another, leading neighboring countries the violence will very likely not stop anytime soon even if every Russian soldier is evicted from the Donbass and Crimea. There is no desire for peace in either Kyiv or Moskva; the Russian nationalists have firmly convinced their people that they are fighting the West by proxy in Ukraine, and Ukrainian nationalists have firmly convinced their people that Russians are the enemy and always will be. Cross-border violence will likely continue for some time and those of us who are still young will probably be graying by the time serious attempts at mending these wounds are made. Generations will surely be born knowing of the people on the other side of the border as only "the enemy" who must be destroyed, and this indoctrination will continue for decades to come.

This is the unfortunate reality of nationalism: it can bring countries together by convincing them to hate and dehumanize foreigners, particularly neighbors who've committed grievances against them or their ancestors. The humanitarian disaster of the Soviet Union's demise continues unabated, and will continue for decades more to come.

[The Grand World Order]

Idk how well they can use it for a SEAD mission though.

Multiroles are more than capable of employing HARMs. In fact, part of the reason my baby (the EA-6B) was retired was that multiroles were being used more often for HARM shoots, despite the EA-6 literally being made with that mission in mind.

That said, I don't know how much of a difference F-16s would really make in the short term. The process of getting the Abrams in Ukranian hands is expected to take over a year- F-16s are much more complex, expensive, fragile, and easy to locate. I don't think a realistic amount of them could or would be provided, and training Ukranian pilots to fly them the way they're intended to (Soviet and Western philosophies of 'what makes a good fighter' were very different) is also going to take a significant amount of time. The middle of a war is not the ideal time to be making these changes, and the Ukrainian Air Force is not likely to be able to transition to a Western-pattern air force before the American election season.

[Corrian]

So Russia lost 9 T-90s?

[Corrian]

Also enjoying the continued collapse of the flanks in Bakhmut.

What's funny is Russia/Wagner is so close to taking all of Bakhmut, but right before they do, they may entirely lose their flanks and in the end never "fully" take Bakhmut. That would be hilarious.

[Asherahan]

Also enjoying the continued collapse of the flanks in Bakhmut.

What's funny is Russia/Wagner is so close to taking all of Bakhmut, but right before they do, they may entirely lose their flanks and in the end never "fully" take Bakhmut. That would be hilarious.

The flanks aren't collasping the Ukrainians launched limited counteroffensives to retake the vital supply line into bakhmut. They don't want to lose men or equipment until the actual summer offensive starts.

[Asherahan]

Yeah ok cope as much as the Russians are coping in Ukraine.

58,220 casualties in over 10ish years in Vietnam. 2,402 over 20 years in Afghanistan.

Some people would call that an improvement.

One was against half of a third world nation with backing from a regional and a world superpower and the other was against some tribals with limited backing from pakistan are you for real right now?

[Raskana]

58,220 casualties in over 10ish years in Vietnam. 2,402 over 20 years in Afghanistan.

Some people would call that an improvement.

One was against half of a third world nation with backing from a regional and a world superpower and the other was against some tribals with limited backing from pakistan are you for real right now?

And the NVA and VC had advanced Soviet and Chinese weapons, such as long range artillery, surface to air missiles, radar guided AA guns, MiG,s and main battle tanks, not to mention the fact the fact the USA political leadership was unwilling to target the infrastructure in the North that brought in these goods.

Now as for Ukraine, it is receiving high tech weapons from the west, like the North got from China and the USSR, but they do not use terror tactics like the VC did, and instead, they seem to be implementing a doctrine of high mobility encirclement and infiltration against the Russian military, which uses the same indiscriminate are bombardment as the NVA in the later stages of the war, when funding to the ARVN was cut thanks to Watergate.

[The Grand World Order]

One was against half of a third world nation with backing from a regional and a world superpower and the other was against some tribals with limited backing from pakistan are you for real right now?

the misconception that the Taliban were sparse, barely organized dirt farmers (beyond the random out-of-work dudes they'd toss a few bucks to in between growing and harvest seasons) with almost no foreign backing, as opposed to a decades-old, complex and experienced organization with foreign intelligence/special forces embedded with them, protection in Pakistan (the Taliban leadership's locations and habits were known, they lived in Quetta with ISI cooperation,) funding from numerous foreign sources, and by at least 2018, actual special operations cells with modern Russian and Chinese equipment, is the surest sign of someone who literally guzzles the propaganda of the country they're trying to dunk on

the Soviets suffered 14-26,000 KIA in the exact same country under similar circumstances and half the time

by all means though continue with the ill-educated stereotypes of Afghanistan lol

or don't so we don't derail the thread

[Picairn]

And the NVA and VC had advanced Soviet and Chinese weapons, such as long range artillery, surface to air missiles, radar guided AA guns, MiG,s and main battle tanks, not to mention the fact the fact the USA political leadership was unwilling to target the infrastructure in the North that brought in these goods.

The US targeted plenty of railways, werehouses, ports, and communication infrastructure in the North. Beyond that, attacking trains carrying goods on the border with China, or sinking Soviet shipments is tantamount to WW3.

As an aside, the North didn't fight alone against the US but instead an international coalition of US + South Vietnam + Australia + NZ + South Korea. Tally up all of them and you have ~333k deaths, 1.3 million wounded, 1 million captured (with South Vietnam forming the bulk) vs. 1.1 million deaths/missing, 604k wounded of the NVA (plus a thousand Chinese deaths, though direct Chinese involvement in the war is still less than US allies). Not so lopsided now.

The flanks aren't collasping the Ukrainians launched limited counteroffensives to retake the vital supply line into bakhmut. They don't want to lose men or equipment until the actual summer offensive starts.

The Russians lost two big chunks of land near Ivanivske and north of Bakhmut. Their flanks are definitely being hammered hard.

[Picairn]

The military situation inside Bakhmut itself isn't going well, the latest maps all point to Ukraine losing nearly all of the city and only a toehold in the southwestern area remains.