American Politics XV: Trump and '24 Already....

[Diopolis]

Lucky you. I'll keep getting Greg Abbott emails until the heat death of the universe.

Buildings collapse and are built over. Empires rise and fall. Glaciers melt and the seas rise. The flame of humanity is snuffed out. The sun consumes its dormant shell and erases it all. There is only one constant.
"Vote Greg Abbott for Governor!"

The last sound in the universe, as Milliway's fades away, is a winred link hitting my email.

[Khurkhogur]

The way right-wing politicians and pundits are reacting to Paul Pelosi’s attempted murder shows how much the right-wing in America has degenerated. It’s disgusting.

It's just a sign that formerly stable arrangements are now collapsing. The essence of politics is force and negotiation - negotiation has clearly failed, so the use of force is becoming more common. But it isn't anything new, the majority of human history has been very brutal. To think that that's somehow no longer a possibility is deeply naive, even if it's a popular view.

[San Lumen]

The polls are tied right now.

Of the recent five polls, only one is calling the race "tied" and it's literally a poll backed by fucking Citizens United.

No wonder you don't have faith in polls, you don't know how to read them: you ignore the bulk of the polls that say Hochul is a shoe-in to focus solely on the poll that is a genuine outlier from a biased source.

What don't I get? the election has clearly tightened and Hochul is no longer a shoe in.

[Diopolis]

The way right-wing politicians and pundits are reacting to Paul Pelosi’s attempted murder shows how much the right-wing in America has degenerated. It’s disgusting.

It's just a sign that formerly stable arrangements are now collapsing. The essence of politics is force and negotiation - negotiation has clearly failed, so the use of force is becoming more common. But it isn't anything new, the majority of human history has been very brutal. To think that that's somehow no longer a possibility is deeply naive, even if it's a popular view.

To be fair, the dude was a genuine weirdo of the sort that are very often gay prostitutes and was arrested in his underwear.
The charging document from the feds makes it look like he was genuinely crazy and not there on business, but it is a story that gets continually more random with each reveal and the idea that a mildly corrupt prominent citizen in San Francisco was seeing a gay prostitute who happened to be crazy isn't prima facie implausible, even if the evidence is against it.

[New-Minneapolis]

It's just a sign that formerly stable arrangements are now collapsing. The essence of politics is force and negotiation - negotiation has clearly failed, so the use of force is becoming more common. But it isn't anything new, the majority of human history has been very brutal. To think that that's somehow no longer a possibility is deeply naive, even if it's a popular view.

To be fair, the dude was a genuine weirdo of the sort that are very often gay prostitutes and was arrested in his underwear.
The charging document from the feds makes it look like he was genuinely crazy and not there on business, but it is a story that gets continually more random with each reveal and the idea that a mildly corrupt prominent citizen in San Francisco was seeing a gay prostitute who happened to be crazy isn't prima facie implausible, even if the evidence is against it.

Yeah, I’m not buying the “it was a dispute between gay lovers” coming from far-right bullshit websites

[Spirit of Hope]

Of the recent five polls, only one is calling the race "tied" and it's literally a poll backed by fucking Citizens United.

No wonder you don't have faith in polls, you don't know how to read them: you ignore the bulk of the polls that say Hochul is a shoe-in to focus solely on the poll that is a genuine outlier from a biased source.

What don't I get? the election has clearly tightened and Hochul is no longer a shoe in.

Hochul is still hugely likely to win with an average of 7 point lead in the polls. Really if you want to doom about the midterms it isn't the New York races, its the Georgian, Nevada, PA, and Arizona Senate races.

[Yerachmeal]

Of the recent five polls, only one is calling the race "tied" and it's literally a poll backed by fucking Citizens United.

No wonder you don't have faith in polls, you don't know how to read them: you ignore the bulk of the polls that say Hochul is a shoe-in to focus solely on the poll that is a genuine outlier from a biased source.

What don't I get? the election has clearly tightened and Hochul is no longer a shoe in.

Yes she is, it just went from a 99% chance that she'll win to a 98.9% chance. Remember we still have that bet on whether she'll get at least 55% of the vote.

[San Lumen]

What don't I get? the election has clearly tightened and Hochul is no longer a shoe in.

Yes she is, it just went from a 99% chance that she'll win to a 98.9% chance. Remember we still have that bet on whether she'll get at least 55% of the vote.

we do. If she gets 55 percent of the vote and we know the outcome election night you get bragging rights.

[Shrillland]

What don't I get? the election has clearly tightened and Hochul is no longer a shoe in.

Hochul is still hugely likely to win with an average of 7 point lead in the polls. Really if you want to doom about the midterms it isn't the New York races, its the Georgian, Nevada, PA, and Arizona Senate races.

PA and Nevada, certainly, the other two I'm actually pretty confident will be Democratic wins.

[Yerachmeal]

What don't I get? the election has clearly tightened and Hochul is no longer a shoe in.

Hochul is still hugely likely to win with an average of 7 point lead in the polls. Really if you want to doom about the midterms it isn't the New York races, its the Georgian, Nevada, PA, and Arizona Senate races.

It's not just the average, the more recent the poll the more defining it is. Which in no way means that I disagree with your list of likely gop wins though I am shocked that the same state that Mark Kelly is winning will go to a far-right extremist.

[Shrillland]

Hochul is still hugely likely to win with an average of 7 point lead in the polls. Really if you want to doom about the midterms it isn't the New York races, its the Georgian, Nevada, PA, and Arizona Senate races.

It's not just the average, the more recent the poll the more defining it is. Which in no way means that I disagree with your list of likely gop wins though I am shocked that the same state that Mark Kelly is winning will go to a far-right extremist.

Nothing shocking about it once we go below the surface. Lake's done an excellent job getting to the voters and Hobbs is an incompetent buffoon.

[Yerachmeal]

It's not just the average, the more recent the poll the more defining it is. Which in no way means that I disagree with your list of likely gop wins though I am shocked that the same state that Mark Kelly is winning will go to a far-right extremist.

Nothing shocking about it once we go below the surface. Lake's done an excellent job getting to the voters and Hobbs is an incompetent buffoon.

Yeah, but a case where a conservative like me would vote for the democrat usually is one where a swing state would go dem.

[San Lumen]

It's not just the average, the more recent the poll the more defining it is. Which in no way means that I disagree with your list of likely gop wins though I am shocked that the same state that Mark Kelly is winning will go to a far-right extremist.

Nothing shocking about it once we go below the surface. Lake's done an excellent job getting to the voters and Hobbs is an incompetent buffoon.

Yes she has a run an absolutely terrible campaign. Not debating Lake was a terrible look.

[Shrillland]

Well, the time has come at last. After all the bloviating, the fights, the debates, the early votes, we're now only just over a week away from the big day. And so, for the last time, here's my take on next week.

Just like last time, I'll show the maps and focus on a few highlights.

Senate:

Alaska: With Buzz Kelley pulling out and endorsing Lisa Murkowski, this is her race to lose. The polls currently show nearly 80% of Pat Chesbro's preference votes going to Murkowski, so I think she'll win in Round 3.

Arizona: Although Republican groups have been pouring money in for Blake Masters, Mark Kelly remains in a pretty steady lead. He'll easily keep his seat.

Georgia: This is one of the closest races in the country, yet it's also one that I'm quite confident about predicting. It's not likely to end here, I don't see anyone going over 50%, but in the December 6 runoff, I think Raphael Warnock will beat Herschel Walker in this changing state.

Nevada: I know this is contrary to what most pollsters are saying, especially considering how well-loved the Laxalts are, but Nevada's polls always tend to tread redder than they end up, and the more reliable the pollster, the closer the race appears. I think Catherine Cortez Masto will squeak out an incredibly narrow victory against Adam Laxalt, though I won't be surprised if Laxalt wins either.

New Hampshire: Although Don Bolduc's been closing in in recent weeks, I still think Maggie Hassan will be the winner here.

Ohio: If there's any sleeper race, it's here. Of the 17 polls conducted in October, 11 of them were internal party polls(9 Republican, 2 Democratic) so an accurate picture is a little harder to glean. Even so, and despite Tim Ryan's insistence that he'll anyone who claims Ohio's no longer competitive, my money is on JD Vance winning(albeit an unusually close race).

Pennsylvania: Un until last month, I would've said John Fetterman was a shoe-in. But his public performances, including his debate performance, have left some questioning his capability to hold office. Although a recent poll said 83% of Dems think he'll be all right, as did quite a few experts in stroke recovery and rehabilitation, image matters in politics. Dr. Oz won his primary by 950 votes, and I can see him winning the general by a similar margin of less than 10,000.

Washington: Another surprise, but Republican Tiffany Smiley's done quite well in the closing weeks, focusing on high crime and inflation rather than abortion or Trumpism. Even so, the polls that show her right next to Patty Murray are internal party polls, even the Trafalgar Group's latest poll was commissioned by the state GOP. I think that Murray will win here.

Wisconsin: It was close for a while(and technically still is), but of the three "crucial states: of 2016 and "20, this is the one going Reddest fastest. Ron Johnson will be re-elected.

House:

Too much to go down to each blow, so here's the map.

Governors:

Arizona: Katie Hobbs could not have messed her chances up more if she actively tried...which she actually did considering her flat refusal to debate Kari Lake and her continuous stumbles. What seemed like a major pick-up for the Dems is instead going to be a major victory for the GOP's Q Continuum(with full apologies to all Trekkies). Lake will win at this point, showing that people do still vote for split tickets even after my 2020 pronouncement that they were dead.

Kansas: In this Red year, Kansas is set to surprise us yet again. Many were surprised by the state's decision to keep abortion legal in August, and that energy is still lingering here despite dissipating in a lot of other states. Add to that Independent State Senator Dennis Pyle's siphoning further-right voters away from Derek Schmidt, and the stage is set for Laura Kelly to be re-elected.

Michigan: It seemed like a real horse race for a while, but now Gretchen Whitmer is safely ahead and will win next week.

Nevada: A very close race indeed, but I think Steve Sisolak will scrape to re-election even though it is a razor's edge kind of race.

Oregon: Thanks to Kate Brown's lack of popularity and a strong third-party run by Betsy Johnson, this is a three-way race, though not as much of one as it might initially appear. Johnson's support has ebbed some from its July peak, though Tina Kotek isn't faring much better, so I think Christine Drazak will become Oregon's first Republican Governor in decades.

Wisconsin: As I said before, Wisconsin is turning red, and this race is no exception. Tim Michels will win a close victory.

[Khurkhogur]

It's just a sign that formerly stable arrangements are now collapsing. The essence of politics is force and negotiation - negotiation has clearly failed, so the use of force is becoming more common. But it isn't anything new, the majority of human history has been very brutal. To think that that's somehow no longer a possibility is deeply naive, even if it's a popular view.

To be fair, the dude was a genuine weirdo of the sort that are very often gay prostitutes and was arrested in his underwear.
The charging document from the feds makes it look like he was genuinely crazy and not there on business, but it is a story that gets continually more random with each reveal and the idea that a mildly corrupt prominent citizen in San Francisco was seeing a gay prostitute who happened to be crazy isn't prima facie implausible, even if the evidence is against it.

I don't doubt he was crazy. The point isn't whether he was crazy or not, it's clearly part of a larger pattern of intensifying political violence. I don't see what the gay prostitutes you're ranting about have to do with anything.

[Umeria]

Saying "lean", likely", etc. is a sign of weakness. Real ones predict the exact percentage the candidates will win by.

[Yerachmeal]

Well, the time has come at last. After all the bloviating, the fights, the debates, the early votes, we're now only just over a week away from the big day. And so, for the last time, here's my take on next week.

Just like last time, I'll show the maps and focus on a few highlights.

Senate:

(Image)

Alaska: With Buzz Kelley pulling out and endorsing Lisa Murkowski, this is her race to lose. The polls currently show nearly 80% of Pat Chesbro's preference votes going to Murkowski, so I think she'll win in Round 3.

Arizona: Although Republican groups have been pouring money in for Blake Masters, Mark Kelly remains in a pretty steady lead. He'll easily keep his seat.

Georgia: This is one of the closest races in the country, yet it's also one that I'm quite confident about predicting. It's not likely to end here, I don't see anyone going over 50%, but in the December 6 runoff, I think Raphael Warnock will beat Herschel Walker in this changing state.

Nevada: I know this is contrary to what most pollsters are saying, especially considering how well-loved the Laxalts are, but Nevada's polls always tend to tread redder than they end up, and the more reliable the pollster, the closer the race appears. I think Catherine Cortez Masto will squeak out an incredibly narrow victory against Adam Laxalt, though I won't be surprised if Laxalt wins either.

New Hampshire: Although Don Bolduc's been closing in in recent weeks, I still think Maggie Hassan will be the winner here.

Ohio: If there's any sleeper race, it's here. Of the 17 polls conducted in October, 11 of them were internal party polls(9 Republican, 2 Democratic) so an accurate picture is a little harder to glean. Even so, and despite Tim Ryan's insistence that he'll anyone who claims Ohio's no longer competitive, my money is on JD Vance winning(albeit an unusually close race).

Pennsylvania: Un until last month, I would've said John Fetterman was a shoe-in. But his public performances, including his debate performance, have left some questioning his capability to hold office. Although a recent poll said 83% of Dems think he'll be all right, as did quite a few experts in stroke recovery and rehabilitation, image matters in politics. Dr. Oz won his primary by 950 votes, and I can see him winning the general by a similar margin of less than 10,000.

Washington: Another surprise, but Republican Tiffany Smiley's done quite well in the closing weeks, focusing on high crime and inflation rather than abortion or Trumpism. Even so, the polls that show her right next to Patty Murray are internal party polls, even the Trafalgar Group's latest poll was commissioned by the state GOP. I think that Murray will win here.

Wisconsin: It was close for a while(and technically still is), but of the three "crucial states: of 2016 and "20, this is the one going Reddest fastest. Ron Johnson will be re-elected.

House:

(Image)

Too much to go down to each blow, so here's the map.

Governors:

(Image)

Arizona: Katie Hobbs could not have messed her chances up more if she actively tried...which she actually did considering her flat refusal to debate Kari Lake and her continuous stumbles. What seemed like a major pick-up for the Dems is instead going to be a major victory for the GOP's Q Continuum(with full apologies to all Trekkies). Lake will win at this point, showing that people do still vote for split tickets even after my 2020 pronouncement that they were dead.

Kansas: In this Red year, Kansas is set to surprise us yet again. Many were surprised by the state's decision to keep abortion legal in August, and that energy is still lingering here despite dissipating in a lot of other states. Add to that Independent State Senator Dennis Pyle's siphoning further-right voters away from Derek Schmidt, and the stage is set for Laura Kelly to be re-elected.

Michigan: It seemed like a real horse race for a while, but now Gretchen Whitmer is safely ahead and will win next week.

Nevada: A very close race indeed, but I think Steve Sisolak will scrape to re-election even though it is a razor's edge kind of race.

Oregon: Thanks to Kate Brown's lack of popularity and a strong third-party run by Betsy Johnson, this is a three-way race, though not as much of one as it might initially appear. Johnson's support has ebbed some from its July peak, though Tina Kotek isn't faring much better, so I think Christine Drazak will become Oregon's first Republican Governor in decades.

Wisconsin: As I said before, Wisconsin is turning red, and this race is no exception. Tim Michels will win a close victory.

I'm impressed with all the work you put in. I agree with most of your predictions, though I'm not really as informed as you on several of these elections.

[Shrillland]

Saying "lean", likely", etc. is a sign of weakness. Real ones predict the exact percentage the candidates will win by.

Well then, reclassify me as Shrillland with a K because I'm not a real one.

[Kerwa]

To be fair, the dude was a genuine weirdo of the sort that are very often gay prostitutes and was arrested in his underwear.
The charging document from the feds makes it look like he was genuinely crazy and not there on business, but it is a story that gets continually more random with each reveal and the idea that a mildly corrupt prominent citizen in San Francisco was seeing a gay prostitute who happened to be crazy isn't prima facie implausible, even if the evidence is against it.

Yeah, I’m not buying the “it was a dispute between gay lovers” coming from far-right bullshit websites

Of course not. He did it to impress Jodie Foster.

[Shrillland]

snip

I'm impressed with all the work you put in. I agree with most of your predictions, though I'm not really as informed as you on several of these elections.

I mostly just look at Wiki, Ballotpedia, 538 to determine if a pollster's reliable, and my own judgement in a couple of House races. To be quite honest, I can see the GOP getting up to as high as 235, but I was surprised at how many more races leaned blue than expected(not many, but enough to keep my projection below 230).

[El Lazaro]

Saying "lean", likely", etc. is a sign of weakness. Real ones predict the exact percentage the candidates will win by.

Nah, real ones close their eyes and hope for the best.

[New-Minneapolis]

Well, the time has come at last. After all the bloviating, the fights, the debates, the early votes, we're now only just over a week away from the big day. And so, for the last time, here's my take on next week.

Just like last time, I'll show the maps and focus on a few highlights.

Senate:

(Image)

Alaska: With Buzz Kelley pulling out and endorsing Lisa Murkowski, this is her race to lose. The polls currently show nearly 80% of Pat Chesbro's preference votes going to Murkowski, so I think she'll win in Round 3.

Arizona: Although Republican groups have been pouring money in for Blake Masters, Mark Kelly remains in a pretty steady lead. He'll easily keep his seat.

Georgia: This is one of the closest races in the country, yet it's also one that I'm quite confident about predicting. It's not likely to end here, I don't see anyone going over 50%, but in the December 6 runoff, I think Raphael Warnock will beat Herschel Walker in this changing state.

Nevada: I know this is contrary to what most pollsters are saying, especially considering how well-loved the Laxalts are, but Nevada's polls always tend to tread redder than they end up, and the more reliable the pollster, the closer the race appears. I think Catherine Cortez Masto will squeak out an incredibly narrow victory against Adam Laxalt, though I won't be surprised if Laxalt wins either.

New Hampshire: Although Don Bolduc's been closing in in recent weeks, I still think Maggie Hassan will be the winner here.

Ohio: If there's any sleeper race, it's here. Of the 17 polls conducted in October, 11 of them were internal party polls(9 Republican, 2 Democratic) so an accurate picture is a little harder to glean. Even so, and despite Tim Ryan's insistence that he'll anyone who claims Ohio's no longer competitive, my money is on JD Vance winning(albeit an unusually close race).

Pennsylvania: Un until last month, I would've said John Fetterman was a shoe-in. But his public performances, including his debate performance, have left some questioning his capability to hold office. Although a recent poll said 83% of Dems think he'll be all right, as did quite a few experts in stroke recovery and rehabilitation, image matters in politics. Dr. Oz won his primary by 950 votes, and I can see him winning the general by a similar margin of less than 10,000.

Washington: Another surprise, but Republican Tiffany Smiley's done quite well in the closing weeks, focusing on high crime and inflation rather than abortion or Trumpism. Even so, the polls that show her right next to Patty Murray are internal party polls, even the Trafalgar Group's latest poll was commissioned by the state GOP. I think that Murray will win here.

Wisconsin: It was close for a while(and technically still is), but of the three "crucial states: of 2016 and "20, this is the one going Reddest fastest. Ron Johnson will be re-elected.

House:

(Image)

Too much to go down to each blow, so here's the map.

Governors:

(Image)

Arizona: Katie Hobbs could not have messed her chances up more if she actively tried...which she actually did considering her flat refusal to debate Kari Lake and her continuous stumbles. What seemed like a major pick-up for the Dems is instead going to be a major victory for the GOP's Q Continuum(with full apologies to all Trekkies). Lake will win at this point, showing that people do still vote for split tickets even after my 2020 pronouncement that they were dead.

Kansas: In this Red year, Kansas is set to surprise us yet again. Many were surprised by the state's decision to keep abortion legal in August, and that energy is still lingering here despite dissipating in a lot of other states. Add to that Independent State Senator Dennis Pyle's siphoning further-right voters away from Derek Schmidt, and the stage is set for Laura Kelly to be re-elected.

Michigan: It seemed like a real horse race for a while, but now Gretchen Whitmer is safely ahead and will win next week.

Nevada: A very close race indeed, but I think Steve Sisolak will scrape to re-election even though it is a razor's edge kind of race.

Oregon: Thanks to Kate Brown's lack of popularity and a strong third-party run by Betsy Johnson, this is a three-way race, though not as much of one as it might initially appear. Johnson's support has ebbed some from its July peak, though Tina Kotek isn't faring much better, so I think Christine Drazak will become Oregon's first Republican Governor in decades.

Wisconsin: As I said before, Wisconsin is turning red, and this race is no exception. Tim Michels will win a close victory.

Democracy is going to die in Arizona, all because people think that Kari Lake will reduce inflation and illegal immigration. I hope they’re happy with their decision

[The Jamesian Republic]

Saying "lean", likely", etc. is a sign of weakness. Real ones predict the exact percentage the candidates will win by.

Nah, real ones close their eyes and hope for the best.

Nah, real ones flip coins and let Jesus take the wheel.

[Yerachmeal]

Democracy is going to die in Arizona, all because people think that Kari Lake will reduce inflation and illegal immigration. I hope they’re happy with their decision

It's because sh'es a woman that your hating on her s/

[New-Minneapolis]

Democracy is going to die in Arizona, all because people think that Kari Lake will reduce inflation and illegal immigration. I hope they’re happy with their decision

It's because sh'es a woman that your hating on her s/

I don’t give 83 fucks what gender she is. She hates our Democracy, and spreads her feces all over the flag and Constitution, like the rest of MAGA