The Almightily Dollar wrote:Big Jim P wrote:I'd expect the Second Reconstruction to end after another ten, twenty year period - with actual rebuilding/resettling efforts likely lasting a lot longer than even that. By the end of the political reorganization that'd happen in the meantime, the Overton window of the US will have shifted leftwards to catch up with some European countries: the Progressive Democrats would likely form their own left to far left party full of anywhere from progressive social libertarians to libertarian socialists/libertarian leftists (with LGBT+ rights etc. as default positions); maybe even form two parties that do coalitions frequently, in the form of DemSocs and ProDems. On the other side would be the Liberal Democrats/Liberal Party, full of former moderate Democrats and former moderate Republicans that are centre-left to centre-right with a wide variety of social positions.
Or, ya know, the military overthrows the Democratic government, America becomes a Dictatorship, the senate, if it still exists would be de facto powerless, and everything becomes at lot worse.
Honestly, Feel like a lot of people are ignoring the 'how do we end the civil war until being a authoritarian state' problem, and just going "when my side will win they will kill all the bad people"
No, actually, the reason this won't happen is because of a note I mentioned earlier: IIRC, there's been reports that on military bases in the 2020 elections, there was a general shift leftwards/joining or voting for the Democratic Party, not the GOP. The military's own soldiers were abandoning authoritarianism/radicalization of the right, what in those actions makes you think that they'd then stand in formation if some General got too dictator-y or tried to?
Besides which, most high command of the military heavily disagreed with Trump - and frequently - according to numerous former top Trump regime officials. It is entirely likely that, given these two factors, the military wouldn't go for dictatorship and would only act under martial law until martial law/the Second Reconstruction was set to end. Otherwise, those in high command would face mass desertions or else be potentially arrested/executed by lower-ranked/general soldiers for Treason.
I do not see any scenario that ends with the military suddenly doing a 180 towards authoritarianism, even during a term of martial law as a result of a far right-led insurrection. Maybe a coup could happen, but it wouldn't be for authoritarianism, it'd be to remove Trump and his ilk from power if they managed to seize it/try to go full dictator.
Pangurstan wrote:It's always somewhat funny and slightly depressing to watch people argue about how their side would totally crush the other side in a civil war instead of realizing that any civil war would end in mass famine and widespread economic collapse for everyone.
Given the cities/Dem States are the ones making all the money and are often bailing out the rural areas or even having red states/rural states/GOP states act as money sinks, how Dem States mostly have access to rivers/port cities and most port cities are heavily Dem, the Navy and military / National Guard would support and secure said cities....
...well, the only infrastructure getting destroyed would belong to the rural/red states to ensure they couldn't coordinate and that their mass insurrection was in contained pockets that could be easily squashed or else contained generally until they get too starved/dehydrated to fight anymore. The Second Reconstruction I mention includes rebuilding / resettling efforts once all of that is over and the insurrectionists are imprisoned this time, unlike the last Civil War, under all sorts of felonies that come with being a traitor and insurrectionist.
State and federal laws will disqualify said individuals from voting, and the Constitution itself would henceforth forbid them from office or other forms of power even after they got out of jail. As for any children/grandchildren of the insurrectionists, I imagine that without the GOP blocking any measures any longer, the Dems - split into new parties yet or not - are able to actually pass good infrastructure, healthcare, education, welfare, childcare, and foster care reformation bills that might manage to untangle the already messy system we have.
So they'll probably get deprogrammed/deradicalized, even if it takes until after the Second Reconstruction officially ends.
As for economic ruin etc., again, those blue areas are all the major economic centers of industry/trade. That won't change just because they needed to be secured against insurrection, especially when the insurrectionists are struggling to compete against a far more effective military force and its far superior equipment, e.g. the US military and National Guard. Maybe there'll be more imports for food for a while, but I don't see any US allies actively trying to prevent such a thing, and in fact they'd be the first in line to see it done - we were there for them, after all, in their time of need (e.g. the Marshall Plan, for one).
The only ones facing genuine economic ruin, famine, and potential mass death are the rural / red states who think they'd fucking win against far more populated cities who also have guns, and against the US military/National Guard (or are under the delusion the military/National Guard are still on 'their side,' as it were). Because, again, they are all money sinks and need us at least as much, if not more than we need them.