The Ukrainian War IV: "And von Moltke Laughed ..."

[Salus Maior]

has Belarus backed out of the fight?

Belarus was never particularly in the fight tbh. They let Russian units move through Belarus and fire missiles from their territory but they’ve never actually sent their own men in to help. Likely because Lukashenko’s hold on power is not as strong as it once was and he’s worried about being ousted if the army runs off and gets destroyed.

Tbh that seems short sighted. If Russia loses he's also screwed, because Russia is the only reason he managed to hold on through all that civic upheaval a while ago.

[Ifreann]

There’s also reporting going around that the Ukrainians might have captured a Russian Lieutenant General and his headquarters. If true, that is disastrously bad for the Russians.

My comrade in Christ, this is why you were issued cyanide pills. Smh my head.

[El Lazaro]

Belarus was never particularly in the fight tbh. They let Russian units move through Belarus and fire missiles from their territory but they’ve never actually sent their own men in to help. Likely because Lukashenko’s hold on power is not as strong as it once was and he’s worried about being ousted if the army runs off and gets destroyed.

Tbh that seems short sighted. If Russia loses he's also screwed, because Russia is the only reason he managed to hold on through all that civic upheaval a while ago.

Belarus can’t do much to help, and the risk of sanctions is not worth anything Russia can give Belarus at this point. Russia has lost its reputation as a useful ally against America/NATO. China has already decided that showing support for Russia is a liability, and cut back investment/trade ties while publicly denying any aid to Russia. It’s better to be a lonely dictator than stuck on a sinking ship with Putin.

[Free Algerstonia]

Some German dude, Ralph T. Niemeyer, ex-husband of German left winger Sarah Wagenknecht, traveled to Moscow to ask for the Russian legimitiation of an official German government in exile...

He says he is in negotiations with the Russian government for further gas deliveries by Russia (apparently to be made to his government, not the one actually functioning in Berlin).

Here is his twitter, in German, yet still hilarious: https://twitter.com/niemeyeroffizi1

He is putting up some hilariously bad photoshops of him meeting Lavrov

The 2020’s are a fucking fever dream.

and we're not even three years in

[Salus Maior]

Some German dude, Ralph T. Niemeyer, ex-husband of German left winger Sarah Wagenknecht, traveled to Moscow to ask for the Russian legimitiation of an official German government in exile...

He says he is in negotiations with the Russian government for further gas deliveries by Russia (apparently to be made to his government, not the one actually functioning in Berlin).

Here is his twitter, in German, yet still hilarious: https://twitter.com/niemeyeroffizi1

He is putting up some hilariously bad photoshops of him meeting Lavrov

....So, gas is just going to be stored in his front lawn or something?

[Picairn]

There’s also reporting going around that the Ukrainians might have captured a Russian Lieutenant General and his headquarters. If true, that is disastrously bad for the Russians.

I am currently unable to verify this information. Lots of speculation going around on social media right now comparing the General's past appearances to the suspect's, will need more time to see if this is true.

[Tarsonis]

I mean it's not that shocking that this front is goint so terribly for the Russians. For a while it's been obvious that Russia had largely lost the initiative and was trying to hold back the western funded tide while addressing manpower/equipment shortages. It was only a matter of time before something gave way.

[New Baltenstein]

Some German dude, Ralph T. Niemeyer, ex-husband of German left winger Sarah Wagenknecht, traveled to Moscow to ask for the Russian legimitiation of an official German government in exile...

He says he is in negotiations with the Russian government for further gas deliveries by Russia (apparently to be made to his government, not the one actually functioning in Berlin).

Here is his twitter, in German, yet still hilarious: https://twitter.com/niemeyeroffizi1

He is putting up some hilariously bad photoshops of him meeting Lavrov

To be fair, Niemeyer has been an obsessed and unrepetant charlatan for years. He has claimed to have been the famous-yet-unidentified reporter whose unexpected question at a GDR government press conference in 1989 led to the downfall of the Berlin Wall - a claim that could never be verified in the past 30 years - has been found guilty of financial advise scams in like 50 cases (the court only gave him a minor prison sentence because he was testified as schizophrenic during trial), has also been found guilty of trying to sell forged Leonardo Da Vinci paintings and is apparently infamous in the German conspiracy theorist community for borrowing huge sums of money and not giving them back.
This latest stunt seems very in line with his persona.

[New Baltenstein]

Tbh that seems short sighted. If Russia loses he's also screwed, because Russia is the only reason he managed to hold on through all that civic upheaval a while ago.

Belarus can’t do much to help, and the risk of sanctions is not worth anything Russia can give Belarus at this point. Russia has lost its reputation as a useful ally against America/NATO. China has already decided that showing support for Russia is a liability, and cut back investment/trade ties while publicly denying any aid to Russia. It’s better to be a lonely dictator than stuck on a sinking ship with Putin.

Of course Russia can still decide that the Belarussian leadership are all drug-addicted Neo-Nazis and invade them if they don't comply. Altough the Russian military probably doesn't have the manpower to pull that off anymore.

[Picairn]

the famous-yet-unidentified reporter whose unexpected question at a GDR government press conference in 1989 led to the downfall of the Berlin Wall

Unidentified? His name is Riccardo Ehrman.

Edit: Might be Peter Brinkmann according to Schabowski.

[The Lone Alliance]

holy shit the Ukrainian offensive in Kharkiv is rolling empty Russian positions, Putin must be on actual suicide watch lmao

Any update on how they are doing in Kherson?

Ukraine's running into more resistance around Kherson for obvious reasons and Ukraine is still keeping pretty quiet about it, it does look like the front is still moving. There was a video awhile back of a Russian Convoy getting hit while trying to cross a Pontoon bridge and some more battle footage coming out but it's going to be a slog.

Unlike Kharkiv which has quickly turned into another Russian retreat. This keeps up the Izyum line and even LPR might be back on the table again.

There’s also reporting going around that the Ukrainians might have captured a Russian Lieutenant General and his headquarters. If true, that is disastrously bad for the Russians.

Yeah this happened on the Kharkiv offensive apparently, what's interesting is they're starting to rumor that he was actually the Russian commander of that entire front, and he was trying to pass himself off as a lesser rank in an attempt to escape?

Would explain why the Russians seem to have no clue what to do.

[Laka Strolistandiler]

IMHO Ukraine has esssentially won their “little Amiens”- their victory at Balakleya can turn around the stalemate into their favor.

Also here’s a funny little thing: over the past 6 months Russians have captured an approximate 0.6% of Ukrainian territory. Great.Makes me remember this

[Picairn]

According to Russian source Rybar, the Ukrainians have allegedly reached all the way to Sen'kove on the Oskil river, between Kupiansk in the north and Izyum in the south.

If this is true, the main highways from Kupiansk to Izyum have been completely cut off. Only one major supply route to Izyum remains northeast of the city - the bridge next to Horokhovatka.

Edit: There is also another smaller route further south, the road passing through Oskil east of Izyum.

[Picairn]

HOLY SHIT the Ukrainians have reached the southern vicinity of Kupiansk! This location is barely 4-5 km from the city centre!

At this rate Kupiansk is gonna be attacked by tomorrow or even sooner.

[Port Caverton]

HOLY SHIT the Ukrainians have reached the southern vicinity of Kupiansk! This location is barely 4-5 km from the city centre!

At this rate Kupiansk is gonna be attacked by tomorrow or even sooner.

Common Russian L

[Washington Resistance Army]

HOLY SHIT the Ukrainians have reached the southern vicinity of Kupiansk! This location is barely 4-5 km from the city centre!

At this rate Kupiansk is gonna be attacked by tomorrow or even sooner.

Remember when Russia was thought of as a fearsome military power?

[Adamede]

Belarus was never particularly in the fight tbh. They let Russian units move through Belarus and fire missiles from their territory but they’ve never actually sent their own men in to help. Likely because Lukashenko’s hold on power is not as strong as it once was and he’s worried about being ousted if the army runs off and gets destroyed.

Tbh that seems short sighted. If Russia loses he's also screwed, because Russia is the only reason he managed to hold on through all that civic upheaval a while ago.

We’re talking about the guy who showed the Russian war plans on public television and caused an international incident with Moldova.

[Adamede]

HOLY SHIT the Ukrainians have reached the southern vicinity of Kupiansk! This location is barely 4-5 km from the city centre!

At this rate Kupiansk is gonna be attacked by tomorrow or even sooner.

Remember when Russia was thought of as a fearsome military power?

Russian bots like to tag on America’s losses in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, but Russia hasn’t exactly won that many wars since WW2 either.

[Picairn]

A Russian source proposes abandoning Izyum, plus new map from Rybar.

The situation is moving rapidly. From the map it seems the Ukrainians are making a bee line for the Horokhovatka bridge northeast of Izyum, in conjunction with advancing into Kupiansk. Igor Girkin thinks that the Ukrainian advance will strike moving Russian reserves during the march, and the Russians may abandon Izyum soon.

Edit: Russian reports are coming in that the Horokhovatka bridge has fallen.

[Washington Resistance Army]

I saw a picture not too long ago of a Ukrainian Su-27 also equipped with HARMs. Crazy how fast we were able to jury rig a solution for using western weapons on ComBloc aircraft, Ukrainian SEAD is no joke now.

[The Huskar Social Union]

A Russian source proposes abandoning Izyum, plus new map from Rybar.

The situation is moving rapidly. From the map it seems the Ukrainians are making a bee line for the Horokhovatka bridge northeast of Izyum, in conjunction with advancing into Kupiansk. Igor Girkin thinks that the Ukrainian advance will strike moving Russian reserves during the march, and the Russians may abandon Izyum soon.

Edit: Russian reports are coming in that the Horokhovatka bridge has fallen.

Damn look at them go

[Picairn]

Damn look at them go

Ukraine just accomplished a mini-Sedan breakthrough without significant aerial support. Gotta hand it to them, they exploited Russian incompetence almost perfectly under limited material conditions.

[Washington Resistance Army]

There’s so many reports coming in it honestly sounds like the Izyum front has collapsed almost entirely for the Russians. I would not be shocked if the city is surrounded tomorrow.

[The North Polish Union]

I feel like the Ukrainian offensives around Charkiv and Cherson should be a lesson in what an actual "feint" looks like for all the Zussia fans that still insist that the Kyjiv offensive was a feint.

Highly publicize your intent to take a city on one front, make some nominal gains in that direction, and then unexpectedly punch through several hundred miles away on another front where you'd previously been slowly losing ground.

Kupjanśk is a rail hub and losing it endangers the northern flank of Russian gains in Luhanśk. Izium would be in a very vulnerable position since it would be isolated as a Russian position that's both west of the Oskil River and north of the Siverśkyj Doneć, meaning it will need either operational bridges or airlifts to avoid being effectively cut off even if Russia retains control of the opposite riverbanks.

[Ifreann]

There’s so many reports coming in it honestly sounds like the Izyum front has collapsed almost entirely for the Russians. I would not be shocked if the city is surrounded tomorrow.

Starting to get the impression that Russia is bad at war.