The Ukrainian War IV: "And von Moltke Laughed ..."

[Tarsonis]

The level of Putin's micromanagement of the Russian military is truly ridiculous, no wonder this war is so disastrous for Russia. Not only did he set delusional goals with insufficient resources to pursue, he actively interfered in military planning and refused to adjust to reality until much later.

Relevant excerpts:

I remember for years seeing lots of folks on the internet think of Putin as this political titan and mastermind, his strategic brilliance was unrivalled by anyone in the west! He was a big chad etc etc

Nah he is a fucking delusional moron who has actively made Russia's situation worse and gotten tens of thousands of Russian soldiers killed for fuck all.

Even the Klingons understood that "destroying an empire to win a war is no victory, and ending a battle to save an empire is no defeat." Putin needs to study the wisdom of Kahless

[West Bromwich Holme]

With revelations about hazing and soldiers' extreme poverty, it looks like Putin's strategy may not even work. It's horrifying to think about, especially after the Deepcut scandal in the UK army.

The Sun (not that I trust this source, but still...)

Politico article

[Adamede]

Protests and vandalism against military recruitment offices reported in cities across Russia.

Russian conscripts have been receiving some very rusty AKMs out of storage.

Did the Soviets just use all of their cosmoline on Mosins only?

[Ethikia]

The level of Putin's micromanagement of the Russian military is truly ridiculous, no wonder this war is so disastrous for Russia. Not only did he set delusional goals with insufficient resources to pursue, he actively interfered in military planning and refused to adjust to reality until much later.

Relevant excerpts:

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson.

But American officials briefed on highly sensitive intelligence said that behind the scenes Mr. Putin is taking on an even deeper role in the war, including telling commanders that strategic decisions in the field are his to make. Although Mr. Putin has accepted some recommendations from military commanders, including the mobilization of civilians, his involvement has created tensions, American officials said.

The divisions over Kherson are only the latest disagreements between Mr. Putin and his top commanders. Senior Russian officers repeatedly questioned the early plans for the war, American officials said, particularly an initial stage that envisioned a quick strike on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. The Russian officers believed Mr. Putin was going to war with insufficient troops and weaponry, American officials said.

“In this war there has been a consistent mismatch between Putin’s political objectives and the military means to attain them,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute in Arlington, Va. “At important decision points Putin has procrastinated, refusing to recognize the reality, until the options turned from bad to worse.”

In addition to blocking a retreat from Kherson, Mr. Putin has raised doubts about Russian efforts to consolidate their position in the northeast near the Oskil River, which the Ukrainian counteroffensive reached this month. Mr. Putin, an American official said, has opposed pulling back there as well, because he is reluctant to hand anything to Mr. Zelensky that looks like a win.

I'm the only one that doesn't see this as micromanaging? It's a few quotes and there's already two decisions where Putin followed the military or changed idea (mobilization and Oskil).
And to be fair, abandoning Kherson is a terrible idea if you don't want to end the war there, not even the more doomer Russian ex-commanders like Strelkov (he didn't even thought possible to conquer Mariupol) ever proposed that (contrary to Kiev and Kharkiv). If he followed the advice, now they would have to cross the Dnieper again.

[Adamede]

The level of Putin's micromanagement of the Russian military is truly ridiculous, no wonder this war is so disastrous for Russia. Not only did he set delusional goals with insufficient resources to pursue, he actively interfered in military planning and refused to adjust to reality until much later.

Relevant excerpts:

I'm the only one that doesn't see this as micromanaging? It's a few quotes and there's already two decisions where Putin followed the military or changed idea (mobilization and Oskil).
And to be fair, abandoning Kherson is a terrible idea if you don't want to end the war there, not even the more doomer Russian ex-commanders like Strelkov (he didn't even thought possible to conquer Mariupol) ever proposed that (contrary to Kiev and Kharkiv). If he followed the advice, now they would have to cross the Dnieper again.

Kherson as trapped was left of Russias profesional forces in a fight they can’t win, instead being stuck in a slap meat grinder where it’s hard to resupply them while the Ukrainians will have the advantage in logistics, artillery and air power.

[Ethikia]

I'm the only one that doesn't see this as micromanaging? It's a few quotes and there's already two decisions where Putin followed the military or changed idea (mobilization and Oskil).
And to be fair, abandoning Kherson is a terrible idea if you don't want to end the war there, not even the more doomer Russian ex-commanders like Strelkov (he didn't even thought possible to conquer Mariupol) ever proposed that (contrary to Kiev and Kharkiv). If he followed the advice, now they would have to cross the Dnieper again.

Kherson as trapped was left of Russias profesional forces in a fight they can’t win, instead being stuck in a slap meat grinder where it’s hard to resupply them while the Ukrainians will have the advantage in logistics, artillery and air power.

But Kherson is not supposed to be the end goal of that front, Odessa is. So retreating from Kherson now just means that you will need to take it again in another more difficult offensive later.

[Adamede]

Kherson as trapped was left of Russias profesional forces in a fight they can’t win, instead being stuck in a slap meat grinder where it’s hard to resupply them while the Ukrainians will have the advantage in logistics, artillery and air power.

But Kherson is not supposed to be the end goal of that front, Odessa is. So retreating from Kherson now just means that you will need to take it again in another more difficult offensive later.

The Russians taking Mykolaiv, let alone Odesa is a fucking pipe dream and has been for at least 4 months now. The Russians are running out of men and supplies, and most of all morale. All while the Ukrainians are being flooded with western arms of all types, their army is approaching over a million and their morale is sky high.

If the Russians were going to take the rest of the Black Sea coast they would’ve already done it.

[Spirit of Hope]

Kherson as trapped was left of Russias profesional forces in a fight they can’t win, instead being stuck in a slap meat grinder where it’s hard to resupply them while the Ukrainians will have the advantage in logistics, artillery and air power.

But Kherson is not supposed to be the end goal of that front, Odessa is. So retreating from Kherson now just means that you will need to take it again in another more difficult offensive later.

That assumes capturing Odessa is still a major war goal of Russia's. Which it may or may not be. Putin appears to have scaled back his war goals to capturing all of Donbass and maintaining a land bridge to Crimea. For neither of those is Kherson essential, though holding Kherson would better secure the land bridge to Crimea and give Russia better control of the exit to a major river way in Ukraine. Plus Kherson itself is a major city.

From a preservation of military force, abandoning Kherson would probably be a smarter move, the forces there are hard to reinforce and resupply while Ukraine doesn't suffer that same issue. From a strategic planning sense holding Kherson does make some sense. Especially since in a month or two the weather will make it far more difficult for Ukrainian forces to continue to attack. Its a decision that makes sense for the political leadership to make, though it is interesting that apparently the Russian armed forces want to withdraw from Kherson.

[Andsed]

Protests and vandalism against military recruitment offices reported in cities across Russia.

Russian conscripts have been receiving some very rusty AKMs out of storage.

Jesus I though rusty meant like outdated not like outright covered in rust. Their already resorting to this and are planning to raise more troops increasing the amount of equipment they will be going through. Honestly it would not surprise if they start handing out fucking spears at this rate.

[Annihilators of Chan Island]

Protests and vandalism against military recruitment offices reported in cities across Russia.

Russian conscripts have been receiving some very rusty AKMs out of storage.

Jesus I though rusty meant like outdated not like outright covered in rust. Their already resorting to this and are planning to raise more troops increasing the amount of equipment they will be going through. Honestly it would not surprise if they start handing out fucking spears at this rate.

Yeah, that's worse than I thought. If that's the sort of stuff they are issuing the conscripts from deep storage, then I really am not convinced that there's much else of worth in there. How many of those 10s of thousands of old tanks they have in there are just mountains of rust at this point?

[The Huskar Social Union]

I dread to imagine the state of the armouries and warehouses those weapons are being stored in.

[Andsed]

Jesus I though rusty meant like outdated not like outright covered in rust. Their already resorting to this and are planning to raise more troops increasing the amount of equipment they will be going through. Honestly it would not surprise if they start handing out fucking spears at this rate.

Yeah, that's worse than I thought. If that's the sort of stuff they are issuing the conscripts from deep storage, then I really am not convinced that there's much else of worth in there. How many of those 10s of thousands of old tanks they have in there are just mountains of rust at this point?

Seeing as apparently they don’t have enough functioning guns and are having to resort to rusted ones to arm their first wave of conscripts, I would be surprised if any more than like 20% of those tanks are remotely combat viable.

[The Two Jerseys]

Yeah, that's worse than I thought. If that's the sort of stuff they are issuing the conscripts from deep storage, then I really am not convinced that there's much else of worth in there. How many of those 10s of thousands of old tanks they have in there are just mountains of rust at this point?

Seeing as apparently they don’t have enough functioning guns and are having to resort to rusted ones to arm their first wave of conscripts, I would be surprised if any more than like 20% of those tanks are remotely combat viable.

"Not worry comrade, rust is best armor, Javelin go right through and come out other side without explode!"

[Sordhau]

"You see Ivan if Kalashnikov is rusty then that means bullets are rusty, and if bullets are rusty then everyone you shoot dies because if bullet does not kill them rust will! 100% kill count guaranteed!"

[New Baltenstein]

The state of those guns reminds me of an old German black humor poem that goes somewhat like this (the bad grammar is part of the joke):

Look there, comrade, in forest green
there is Russian gun-machine
Alyoshka lies already kill
Kalashnikov is shooting still

[El Lazaro]

Full metal jacket seems like a generous term for whatever comes with those things. Zelenskyy should strike the iron rust while it’s hot before Putin can rule eastern Ukraine with a heavily oxidized first.

[Rusozak]

I wonder how long until the joke about the Russians rolling out T-34s becomes reality.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Russian conscripts have been receiving some very rusty AKMs out of storage.

I remain unsurprised tbh given the fact that even space shuttle Buran was "stored" in such a way that the shed it was in collapsed on it.

[American Legionaries]

I wonder how long until the joke about the Russians rolling out T-34s becomes reality.

Give it a couple of months...

[Tarsonis]

Full metal jacket seems like a generous term for whatever comes with those things. Zelenskyy should strike the iron rust while it’s hot before Putin can rule eastern Ukraine with a heavily oxidized first.

They literally don't have to do anything. No amount of scraping will make those weapons serviceable. Once the rust causes sheeting like that, the received is no longer capable of containing the chamber pressure. You might get one of two shots off before it's gonna pop. Russian troops will literally kill themselves before they kill any Ukranians

[Neanderthaland]

Protests and vandalism against military recruitment offices reported in cities across Russia.

Russian conscripts have been receiving some very rusty AKMs out of storage.

The only way you'll kill Ukrainians with that is if they get tetanus while looting it off your corpse.

[Andsed]

Seeing as apparently they don’t have enough functioning guns and are having to resort to rusted ones to arm their first wave of conscripts, I would be surprised if any more than like 20% of those tanks are remotely combat viable.

"Not worry comrade, rust is best armor, Javelin go right through and come out other side without explode!"

What is rust if not extra armor? And makes the tank unusable

"You see Ivan if Kalashnikov is rusty then that means bullets are rusty, and if bullets are rusty then everyone you shoot dies because if bullet does not kill them rust will! 100% kill count guaranteed!"

We are not poorly maintaining weapons, were just adding poison damage.

Full metal jacket seems like a generous term for whatever comes with those things. Zelenskyy should strike the iron rust while it’s hot before Putin can rule eastern Ukraine with a heavily oxidized first.

They literally don't have to do anything. No amount of scraping will make those weapons serviceable. Once the rust causes sheeting like that, the received is no longer capable of containing the chamber pressure. You might get one of two shots off before it's gonna pop. Russian troops will literally kill themselves before they kill any Ukranians

The only use those things have is as clubs. And this is what they have to give their first wave of mobilized troops. God help the next ones.

[El Lazaro]

I wonder how long until the joke about the Russians rolling out T-34s becomes reality.

I wouldn’t call it before the T-54/55s roll out. If any T-34s are used in combat, they’ll be the post-war models because there’s no way the crappy ones from WW2 aren’t just piles of metal.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

Slava ukraini

[El Lazaro]

"Not worry comrade, rust is best armor, Javelin go right through and come out other side without explode!"

What is rust if not extra armor? And makes the tank unusable

Comrade, is both angle and plate armor. Rust make tank stronk, Ivan.