The Ukrainian War IV: "And von Moltke Laughed ..."

[Picairn]

I heard something about a hack in Russia that showed the 300,000 was only the first wave and they actually want to go for a million. Not sure about the veracity of that though.

It may actually be true, independent Russian media reported that a classified paragraph of Putin's decree allows for the mobilization of 1 million people.

[West Bromwich Holme]

Should the U.S. take in Russians who don't want to be conscripted, of which there are many, and grant them asylum?

Would this be a good thing from a humanitarian POV?

[Chan Island]

Should the U.S. take in Russians who don't want to be conscripted, of which there are many, and grant them asylum?

Would this be a good thing from a humanitarian POV?

Yes and yes. Not only because of the humanitarian POV (that's almost the least important reason) but because it is the smart play politically. With it, we signal that we are not enemies of the Russian people, just of Vladimir Putin's mad adventures outside the country. We gain allies who could bring in skills, knowledge and insight that could help us resolve this war. And it would represent a significant crack in Putin's propaganda at home, since each of them will be communicating with friends and family who stayed behind, injecting truth into this house of lies.

[Nimzonia]

Russia will use nukes, it's the only thing to level the playing field now.

If Russia wants to use tactical nukes, now is the time. Yet nothing has happened. I'm starting to think that Putin fears MAD and nuclear escalation as much as we do.

He does so long as he still thinks he can win somehow. I'm not so sure he considers world war III a worse outcome than having to admit defeat.

That said, I don't know why he would need to stage fake referendums just to create a legal pretext to use nuclear weapons. If he really wanted to use them, he could just change the law to allow it while waffling about how NATO forced his hand and it's all in self-defense somehow. In the event they are actually used, public opinion will swiftly become non-existent.

[Ethikia]

If Russia were the first to launch nukes and spark the 3rd world war, would they become the new black mark of history like how Germany was after WW2 for a few decades or so? An entity/name so reviled, that no one wants to permit them to be a nation anymore or undo any partitions of in the aftermath.

I have some optimism that if the nukes are used, that it won't necessarily mean that all of us die, that there will be at least a few survivors and that our world is more like Taris- minus the Rhakghoul disease where we have mutated monsters roaming around that with one bite or scratch, will turn someone into one of them.

If it's MAD there wouldn't be a global civlization able to "permit" anything to anyone.
If it's tactical use, the world wouldn't be so shocked. US used them already, a lot of countries include them in their military doctrines, Soviet blitzkrieg plans implied the nuking of big cities and the leak wasn't a big scandal. Does someone really thinks that US, Israel or China would denuclearize because of a few low yeld nuclear bombs over military or infrastructural targets?

I can't believe we thought Russia to be this big and powerful #2 best military in the world.

In all our games, in all our movies, in all our encyclopedias... Russia had this really strong army despite having a #5 rank in world military expenditure.

Technically, Russia only partook in wars like Syria/ISIS and Georgia where the Russians were technologically superior -- in which the opponent had no air force or missiles, and just guerrilla insurgents.

To be honest it was US media inflating this to keep their inflated military budget. Europeans medias, even in fantapolitics, were far more realistic. If you accept the premises of Okkupert, the conflict is realistic. There's no way to make Modern Warfare 2 or Homefront realistic instead

[West Bromwich Holme]

Should the U.S. take in Russians who don't want to be conscripted, of which there are many, and grant them asylum?

Would this be a good thing from a humanitarian POV?

Yes and yes. Not only because of the humanitarian POV (that's almost the least important reason) but because it is the smart play politically. With it, we signal that we are not enemies of the Russian people, just of Vladimir Putin's mad adventures outside the country. We gain allies who could bring in skills, knowledge and insight that could help us resolve this war. And it would represent a significant crack in Putin's propaganda at home, since each of them will be communicating with friends and family who stayed behind, injecting truth into this house of lies.

Good points there; it may damage US-Russia relations severely, but on the upside, it could be good for the country.

However, I can see Trump supporters being against this, and Biden probably won't want to do this, unfortunately.

This would be like how Americans fled to Canada to evade the Vietnam War draft, although some of them became Canadian citizens even after the arrest warrant had expired, I remember reading a story of how a New Yorker kept his US citizenship even though to him, Canada was home, not the U.S.

Joe Biden probably should do this, it would certainly make Putin's propaganda house of leaves fall apart.

[Laka Strolistandiler]

Been to my uni today and despite the fact that officially students studying in military faculties (some have joined em to avoid being drafted after their education us over) are not being conscripted, I’ve met two young fellows one of whom is going to be shipped out to training on the 26th, the other one- tomorrow. Both we’re advised to buy a lot of their stuff themselves, both have been studying here beforehand. Even uni can’t save you from this shit

[Laka Strolistandiler]

Should the U.S. take in Russians who don't want to be conscripted, of which there are many, and grant them asylum?

Would this be a good thing from a humanitarian POV?

Yes, please- if they’ll do that then I’ll early travel there, grab my green card and begin serving uncle sam’s misguided sons.

[Salus Maior]

Scrolling through news reports from Buryatia, Dagestan, Chechnya, etc. plus the reports of anti-war protesters receiving mobilization summons, it is very likely that Russia may be mobilizing more than just 300,000 reservists, with poor ethnic minorities bearing the brunt. Some who received their draft papers have no military experience at all.

I heard something about a hack in Russia that showed the 300,000 was only the first wave and they actually want to go for a million. Not sure about the veracity of that though.

...And again, how are they going to equip a million people?

[Perikuresu]

I heard something about a hack in Russia that showed the 300,000 was only the first wave and they actually want to go for a million. Not sure about the veracity of that though.

...And again, how are they going to equip a million people?

With North Korean ammunition

anyways, Apparently there was/is a protest in Snihurivka (the administrative base for the occupied Mykolaiv oblast) against the referendums to join Russia. Since I'm assuming that all of the referendums will be a clear win for "yes" (because Putin is a generous god), the city will be annexed into Russian Kherson.

[Picairn]

...And again, how are they going to equip a million people?

Mosin-Nagant rifles, AK-47s, and PPSh-41 machine guns for conscripts. Easy. Throw in some T-55s and a couple T-72s for support. /s

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Silvio Berlusconi: Ex-PM defends Russian war on eve of Italian election
>Italy's former PM said Vladimir Putin wanted to replace the Kyiv government with "decent people".
That this buffoon haven't been deported to Moscow yet is a travesty.

[Ifreann]

I heard something about a hack in Russia that showed the 300,000 was only the first wave and they actually want to go for a million. Not sure about the veracity of that though.

...And again, how are they going to equip a million people?

One out of two get a rifle, one without follows him. When the one with the rifle get killed, the one who is following picks up the rifle and shoot!

[The Two Jerseys]

...And again, how are they going to equip a million people?

Mosin-Nagant rifles, AK-47s, and PPSh-41 machine guns for conscripts. Easy. Throw in some T-55s and a couple T-72s for support. /s

They're not tapping into the rolling-block Remingtons yet?

[Perikuresu]

...And again, how are they going to equip a million people?

One out of two get a rifle, one without follows him. When the one with the rifle get killed, the one who is following picks up the rifle and shoot!

No no no, ur getting it wr0ng, the North Koreans are industrious little fellows and they will create an infinite amount of rifles for their glorious Russian friends /j

[The Two Jerseys]

Silvio Berlusconi: Ex-PM defends Russian war on eve of Italian election
>Italy's former PM said Vladimir Putin wanted to replace the Kyiv government with "decent people".
That this buffoon haven't been deported to Moscow yet is a travesty.

Was he in a hot tub with Svetlana and Anastasia when he said that?

[Free Stalliongrad]

Silvio Berlusconi: Ex-PM defends Russian war on eve of Italian election
>Italy's former PM said Vladimir Putin wanted to replace the Kyiv government with "decent people".
That this buffoon haven't been deported to Moscow yet is a travesty.

Give him some respite, he didn't take his morning pills.

[Ethikia]

Silvio Berlusconi: Ex-PM defends Russian war on eve of Italian election
>Italy's former PM said Vladimir Putin wanted to replace the Kyiv government with "decent people".
That this buffoon haven't been deported to Moscow yet is a travesty.

Italy did not really care about fighting ISIS either, I'd say that we wouldn't care about being invaded if the occupier brings money. Do you really think that this country cares about Ukrainian conflict?

[The North Polish Union]

Silvio Berlusconi: Ex-PM defends Russian war on eve of Italian election
>Italy's former PM said Vladimir Putin wanted to replace the Kyiv government with "decent people".
That this buffoon haven't been deported to Moscow yet is a travesty.

Was he in a hot tub with Svetlana and Anastasia when he said that?

He will say anything needed to maintain bunga-bunga

[Tarsonis]

Should the U.S. take in Russians who don't want to be conscripted, of which there are many, and grant them asylum?

Would this be a good thing from a humanitarian POV?

Yes, please- if they’ll do that then I’ll early travel there, grab my green card and begin serving uncle sam’s misguided sons.

No offense but I don't think joining the marines sounds like your bag.

USMC= Uncle Sam's Misguided Children

[Gravlen]

Russia has committed war crimes in Ukraine, say UN investigators

The team of three independent experts on Friday presented their first oral update to the UN human rights council, after it launched initial investigations looking at the areas of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy regions, adding that it would broaden its inquiries.

Speaking a day before the seven-month anniversary of Russia’s invasion of its neighbour, Erik Møse, the head of the investigation team, told thecouncil that, based on the evidence gathered by the Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, “it has concluded that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine”.

The team of investigators visited 27 towns and settlements, as well as graves and detention and torture centres; interviewed more than 150 victims and witnesses; and met with advocacy groups and government officials.

Møse said the team had been especially “struck by the large number of executions in the areas that we visited”, and the frequent “visible signs of executions on bodies, such as hands tied behind backs, gunshot wounds to the head, and slit throats”.

He added it was investigating such deaths in 16 towns and settlements, and had received credible allegations regarding many more cases that it would seek to document. The investigators had also received “consistent accounts of ill-treatment and torture, which were carried out during unlawful confinement”, the council was told.

Independent investigators have confirmed what we already knew.

“Interlocutors described beatings, electric shocks, and forced nudity, as well as other types of violations in such detention facilities,” Møse said.

Møse said the team had also “processed two incidents of ill-treatment against Russian Federation soldiers by Ukrainian forces”, adding that “while few in numbers, such cases continue to be the subject of our attention”.

I'm glad they are pointing out the transgressions committed by the Ukrainian side as well. We know it happens, it's just very different in scope and severity compared to the crimes found on the Russian side.

He said investigators had also documented cases of sexual and gender-based violence, in some cases establishing that Russian soldiers were the perpetrators.

“There are examples of cases where relatives were forced to witness the crimes,” he said.”In the cases we have investigated, the age of victims of sexual and gendered-based violence ranged from four to 82 years.”

The commission had documented a wide range of crimes against children, Møse added, including children who were “raped, tortured, and unlawfully confined”.

Disgusting. The inhumaity shown towards the so-called "brother people" continues to be shocking.

[Picairn]

According to Meduza, Russia reportedly plans to draft up to 1.2 million people, with 16,000 from Moscow and 3,200 from St. Petersburg. Rural areas will be hit the hardest with mobilization, while conscription in regional capitals is kept to a minimum.

Edit: At least 5 recruitment offices in Russia have been set on fire so far.

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

According to Meduza, Russia reportedly plans to draft up to 1.2 million people, with 16,000 from Moscow and 3,200 from St. Petersburg. Rural areas will be hit the hardest with mobilization, while conscription in regional capitals is kept to a minimum.

Eventually it is going to be babushkas armed with throwing potatoes.

[Picairn]

Russia certainly does not have the logistical capacity to sustain 1 or 1.2 million soldiers in combat, so my guess is that a large majority will be kept to 1) the reserves for later rotations or 2) logistical and maintenance operations, while a smaller better-trained minority do the fighting (probably within the 100,000 - 300,000 range). That is, of course, if Russia manages to scrape them all together successfully.

[Corrian]

Russia certainly does not have the logistical capacity to sustain 1 or 1.2 million soldiers in combat, so my guess is that a large majority will be kept to 1) the reserves for later rotations or 2) logistical and maintenance operations, while a smaller better-trained minority do the fighting (probably within the 100,000 - 300,000 range). That is, of course, if Russia manages to scrape them all together successfully.

I get the absolute feeling this will just be a disaster for Russia overall.