The Ukrainian War IV: "And von Moltke Laughed ..."

[Kyelleven]

What if other countries like USA joined the war

[The New California Republic]

What if other countries like USA joined the war

You mean full NATO intervention? Russia would likely get rolled all the way back, and then start lobbing nukes in impotent rage.

[Afrikan Staat]

TBF with Europe's looming energy crisis being potentially as devastating as an outright general aerial bombing attack and with Ukraine's stellar performance, there is an increasingly powerful argument that the EU's best solution to the energy crisis is to yeet it and try to militarily intervene as close as it can without triggering an outright open direct conflict.

Or in other words, depending on the effects, Russia completely cutting off gas flow is an Act of Almost War against the EU, and EU is thus in position to respond with its own Act of Almost War.

[Kanaia]

TBF with Europe's looming energy crisis being potentially as devastating as an outright general aerial bombing attack and with Ukraine's stellar performance, there is an increasingly powerful argument that the EU's best solution to the energy crisis is to yeet it and try to militarily intervene as close as it can without triggering an outright open direct conflict.

How would the EU militarily intervene without being in direct conflict in a way that is not currently happening?

[The New California Republic]

Deputies in 18 districts of Moscow and St Petersburg have signed a statement demanding that Putin resign.

"President Putin's actions are detrimental to the future of Russia and its citizens."

https://theins.ru/news/254941

[Ulajhan]

Deputies in 18 districts of Moscow and St Petersburg have signed a statement demanding that Putin resign.

"President Putin's actions are detrimental to the future of Russia and its citizens."

https://theins.ru/news/254941

That is a lot of car accidents all in one week...

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

Deputies in 18 districts of Moscow and St Petersburg have signed a statement demanding that Putin resign.

"President Putin's actions are detrimental to the future of Russia and its citizens."

https://theins.ru/news/254941

That is a lot of car accidents all in one week...

I'm sure some will jump out of windows

[Perikuresu]

Deputies in 18 districts of Moscow and St Petersburg have signed a statement demanding that Putin resign.

"President Putin's actions are detrimental to the future of Russia and its citizens."

https://theins.ru/news/254941

That is a lot of car accidents all in one week...

I don't think it'll be in a week, it'll be a month, for Putin is a generous god

[Afrikan Staat]

TBF with Europe's looming energy crisis being potentially as devastating as an outright general aerial bombing attack and with Ukraine's stellar performance, there is an increasingly powerful argument that the EU's best solution to the energy crisis is to yeet it and try to militarily intervene as close as it can without triggering an outright open direct conflict.

How would the EU militarily intervene without being in direct conflict in a way that is not currently happening?

Good question: I literally don't know. But I mean if one has to guess, massively supplying Ukraine with insanely way far more armament as requested by Ukraine, complete with personnel training and long term arms resupply plans, now with a strategically planned and direct intent of the destruction of Russian armies in Ukraine, is one option. Outright open collaboration and coordination in hostile intelligence or something similar is another. Especially for the first option, presented with the alternative (apocalyptic winter), governments-led industrial manufacturing effort to crush Russian armies as if they're under the direct invasion of Russia itself may start to become the financially cheaper option.

[Wallowis]

Deputies in 18 districts of Moscow and St Petersburg have signed a statement demanding that Putin resign.

"President Putin's actions are detrimental to the future of Russia and its citizens."

https://theins.ru/news/254941

Who knew they were all allergic to bread?

[Afrikan Staat]

And meanwhile, how's price caps going? I mean with Russia seemingly doomed in the near and long term, there isn't really any downside for any rational self-interested country to not obey the price cap. Price caps, combined with sanctions, radically makes oil and gas cheaper, for everyone.

[El Lazaro]

Russian regional elections have come to a close, and and I would say Russian officials are counting up the vote, but they’re probably busy assigning random numbers to give United Russia a bigger majority than last time. Western news has been talking about voters using the ballot to protest the Kremlin, but any actual opponents have been barred. I feel it’s more likely that Russia uses this to crack down on dissidents.

[Ifreann]

That is a lot of car accidents all in one week...

I'm sure some will jump out of windows

Or accidentally ingest some polonium.

[The Holy Therns]

This was actually all according to plan guys.

[Picairn]

Good question: I literally don't know. But I mean if one has to guess, massively supplying Ukraine with insanely way far more armament as requested by Ukraine, complete with personnel training and long term arms resupply plans, now with a strategically planned and direct intent of the destruction of Russian armies in Ukraine, is one option. Outright open collaboration and coordination in hostile intelligence or something similar is another. Especially for the first option, presented with the alternative (apocalyptic winter), governments-led industrial manufacturing effort to crush Russian armies as if they're under the direct invasion of Russia itself may start to become the financially cheaper option.

Can European countries' MICs massively increase production to replace and sustain all the rapidly increasing arms supplies? The EU (or NATO) might need to kickstart a joint European military-industrial expansion program to make it happen. Collaboration and coordination with Western intelligence already exist, US and NATO intelligence services are actively cooperating with Ukraine and informing the latter about Russian generals' locations, troop movements, etc.

[Tarsonis]

How would the EU militarily intervene without being in direct conflict in a way that is not currently happening?

Good question: I literally don't know. But I mean if one has to guess, massively supplying Ukraine with insanely way far more armament as requested by Ukraine, complete with personnel training and long term arms resupply plans, now with a strategically planned and direct intent of the destruction of Russian armies in Ukraine, is one option. Outright open collaboration and coordination in hostile intelligence or something similar is another. Especially for the first option, presented with the alternative (apocalyptic winter), governments-led industrial manufacturing effort to crush Russian armies as if they're under the direct invasion of Russia itself may start to become the financially cheaper option.

we're already doing that though.

that's why the Ukranians all look like this

and the Russians all look like this

[Tarsonis]

This was actually all according to plan guys.

I'm 1000% sure that Ukraine could force Russia out of all occupied territories, and Moscow will still try to claim "mission accomplished"

[Picairn]

Deputies in 18 districts of Moscow and St Petersburg have signed a statement demanding that Putin resign.

"President Putin's actions are detrimental to the future of Russia and its citizens."

https://theins.ru/news/254941

Interesting, this and the other Russian deputies' demand to impeach Putin are the first signs of cracks within the Russian political system in the wake of military defeat in Kharkiv. The question is whether this will turn into something bigger. I have a feeling that nothing substantial will happen until the Russians face a really catastrophic defeat i.e. a rout in Luhansk Oblast, or the South (which also threatens Crimea).

[Perikuresu]

Can European countries' MICs massively increase production to replace and sustain all the rapidly increasing arms supplies? The EU (or NATO) might need to kickstart a joint European military-industrial expansion program to make it happen. Collaboration and coordination with Western intelligence already exist, US and NATO intelligence services are actively cooperating with Ukraine and informing the latter about Russian generals' locations, troop movements, etc.

My immediate thoughts are "Hungary's gonna fuck this over aren't they"

[Tarsonis]

Deputies in 18 districts of Moscow and St Petersburg have signed a statement demanding that Putin resign.

"President Putin's actions are detrimental to the future of Russia and its citizens."

https://theins.ru/news/254941

Interesting, this and the other Russian deputies' demand to impeach Putin are the first signs of cracks within the Russian political system in the wake of military defeat in Kharkiv. The question is whether this will turn into something bigger. I have a feeling that nothing substantial will happen until the Russians face a really catastrophic defeat i.e. a rout in Luhansk Oblast, or the South (which also threatens Crimea).

It does answer the question of whether or not Russia will fully mobilize. Putin doesn't have the political capital to give the order.

[Tarsonis]

Can European countries' MICs massively increase production to replace and sustain all the rapidly increasing arms supplies? The EU (or NATO) might need to kickstart a joint European military-industrial expansion program to make it happen. Collaboration and coordination with Western intelligence already exist, US and NATO intelligence services are actively cooperating with Ukraine and informing the latter about Russian generals' locations, troop movements, etc.

My immediate thoughts are "Hungary's gonna fuck this over aren't they"

Hungary really can't do much. Poland is more than happy to funnel weapons and other material to Ukraine in order to spite Russia.

[New Baltenstein]

Interesting, this and the other Russian deputies' demand to impeach Putin are the first signs of cracks within the Russian political system in the wake of military defeat in Kharkiv. The question is whether this will turn into something bigger. I have a feeling that nothing substantial will happen until the Russians face a really catastrophic defeat i.e. a rout in Luhansk Oblast, or the South (which also threatens Crimea).

It does answer the question of whether or not Russia will fully mobilize. Putin doesn't have the political capital to give the order.

Even if he had the political will, I doubt the Russian military and state have the actual capabilities to pull off mobilization. They're incapable of properly coordinating and providing for 100,000 armed men, how would they deal with 1,000,000 (the vast majority of which have zero training)?

[Picairn]

Even if he had the political will, I doubt the Russian military and state have the actual capabilities to pull off mobilization. They're incapable of properly coordinating and providing for 100,000 armed men, how would they deal with 1,000,000 (the vast majority of which have zero training)?

Probably months to assemble and train recruits, pull old equipment out of stock for salvage and refurbishment *wherever possible*, procure additional supplies of arms and ammunition from allies (Iran and North Korea), and order an expansion of industrial capacity by mobilizing factories for the purpose of long-term war production. That army will likely take until the summer-autumn of next year to be viable for deployment, if Putin orders mobilization now. Logistical challenges will be great, even with the dense railway networks of the Donbass to help. They will need some thousands more trucks to supply off-road and off-rail armies, and a functioning palletized logistical system (unlikely).

But Putin's avoiding mobilization like the plague, so this line of discussion is pointless.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Have the Ukrainians been able to make any progress near kherson or are they still bogged down there?

[Fartsniffage]

Have the Ukrainians been able to make any progress near kherson or are they still bogged down there?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60506682

A pretty good breakdown.