The Ukrainian War IV: "And von Moltke Laughed ..."

[Tarsonis]

So looking at pictures of the Ukrainian troops involved in the offensive, those guys look pretty well armed, especially compared to what the average Russian soldier has.

If there is one thing Uncle Sam knows how to do, it's distribute weapons

[Spirit of Hope]

While the Ukrainian offensive around Izyum has certainly produced results that it looks like Ukraine will exploit further around Kharkiv and potentially down towards Luhansk, this does not mean that the entire Russian front is collapsing. While Ukraine is making progress in Kherson it is not at the same rate and is against significant resistance in terrain where they have heavily constrained Russia's ability to reinforce/resupply. If Ukraine were to take back Kherson and surrounding territory they would face having to cross the Danube to further push Russia out of southern Ukraine and out of Crimea. Plus Russia looks to have an ok grip on the Zaporizhzhia area where Ukraine is not pushing at this time.

So end of the day the current offensives look good for Ukraine but they are not the same thing as a complete collapse of Russia at this time.

Taking Crimea also presents it's own challenges as the peninsula only has about two roads in and out through Ukraine, with a good deal of water separating much of the landmass from the continent. Truth be told Crimea is only a few sea levels short of being an island. This makes it more defensible and easier to secure from invasion, which is largely why Russia was able to take the whole thing without contest rather easily. I could see Ukraine pushing back into the Donbass and potentially taking it back while simultaneously pushing the Russians out of Southern Ukraine as well, but taking back Crimea may be a bit more difficult. Especially considering that out of every region it's the most virulently pro-Russian.

Flip side is Ukraine has much better access to Crimea than Russia does. If Ukraine were to retake its pre Feb 2022 territory it would be quite easy to eliminate the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia, creating a situation similar to what is happening in Kherson. There would still be ocean and air access, but that would be complicated by shore based anti ship missiles, land based air defense, and Ukrainian aircraft.

That is however a hypothetical for in the future. Right now the interesting questions to me is how far is Russia going to be pushed back, how much have they lost vs. how much Ukraine has expanded in, what reserves does Russia have, and where are they?

[Tarsonis]

Taking Crimea also presents it's own challenges as the peninsula only has about two roads in and out through Ukraine, with a good deal of water separating much of the landmass from the continent. Truth be told Crimea is only a few sea levels short of being an island. This makes it more defensible and easier to secure from invasion, which is largely why Russia was able to take the whole thing without contest rather easily. I could see Ukraine pushing back into the Donbass and potentially taking it back while simultaneously pushing the Russians out of Southern Ukraine as well, but taking back Crimea may be a bit more difficult. Especially considering that out of every region it's the most virulently pro-Russian.

Flip side is Ukraine has much better access to Crimea than Russia does. If Ukraine were to retake its pre Feb 2022 territory it would be quite easy to eliminate the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia, creating a situation similar to what is happening in Kherson. There would still be ocean and air access, but that would be complicated by shore based anti ship missiles, land based air defense, and Ukrainian aircraft.

That is however a hypothetical for in the future. Right now the interesting questions to me is how far is Russia going to be pushed back, how much have they lost vs. how much Ukraine has expanded in, what reserves does Russia have, and where are they?

They have no reserves. That's been the whole issue and why they're conscripting hexegenarians

[Greater Guantanamo]

So looking at pictures of the Ukrainian troops involved in the offensive, those guys look pretty well armed, especially compared to what the average Russian soldier has.

I mean they have America, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Colombia, Turkey, Israel, Bulgaria, Greece, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Croatia, Slovakia, Poland, Slovenia, Czeczia, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Germany, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Norway, Sweden, Finland, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand giving them military aid while Russia has North Korea and Iran.

[Greater Guantanamo]

Flip side is Ukraine has much better access to Crimea than Russia does. If Ukraine were to retake its pre Feb 2022 territory it would be quite easy to eliminate the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia, creating a situation similar to what is happening in Kherson. There would still be ocean and air access, but that would be complicated by shore based anti ship missiles, land based air defense, and Ukrainian aircraft.

That is however a hypothetical for in the future. Right now the interesting questions to me is how far is Russia going to be pushed back, how much have they lost vs. how much Ukraine has expanded in, what reserves does Russia have, and where are they?

They have no reserves. That's been the whole issue and why they're conscripting hexegenarians

Wait what?

[Spirit of Hope]

Flip side is Ukraine has much better access to Crimea than Russia does. If Ukraine were to retake its pre Feb 2022 territory it would be quite easy to eliminate the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia, creating a situation similar to what is happening in Kherson. There would still be ocean and air access, but that would be complicated by shore based anti ship missiles, land based air defense, and Ukrainian aircraft.

That is however a hypothetical for in the future. Right now the interesting questions to me is how far is Russia going to be pushed back, how much have they lost vs. how much Ukraine has expanded in, what reserves does Russia have, and where are they?

They have no reserves. That's been the whole issue and why they're conscripting hexegenarians

Russia isn't directly conscripting anyone in Russia to the fight in Ukraine, though they are leaning heavily on those who are conscripted to "volunteer" to fight in Ukraine. Combined with regional administrations offering big bonuses to people to join regional units that is how Russia is recruiting inside Russia. In the break away regions their is definitely heavy conscription.

Russia does have some reserves, there is even evidence of them trying to redeploy reserves and units near finishing training to try and help with the current Ukrainian advance. They have not done much yet, maybe because there aren't enough, maybe because they haven't reached the front in significant numbers.

[New Baltenstein]

Flip side is Ukraine has much better access to Crimea than Russia does. If Ukraine were to retake its pre Feb 2022 territory it would be quite easy to eliminate the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia, creating a situation similar to what is happening in Kherson. There would still be ocean and air access, but that would be complicated by shore based anti ship missiles, land based air defense, and Ukrainian aircraft.

That is however a hypothetical for in the future. Right now the interesting questions to me is how far is Russia going to be pushed back, how much have they lost vs. how much Ukraine has expanded in, what reserves does Russia have, and where are they?

They have no reserves. That's been the whole issue and why they're conscripting hexegenarians

"My dear fellow Russian citizens. I, the eternal KGB Czar of all the Russias, have decided that the glory that is the denazification of our homeland Ukraine, should not be the exclusive privilege of a few selected Nazi merc- err, heroic Russian contract soldiers, but the joy of every Russian man, woman, child, elderly and disabled person. Let us all embark on this great journey, this great special military service to Mother Russia, together! Therefore, as of this moment, I have ordered the start of a general mass mobilisation of the age groups 7 to 70. Everybody, please go and find your local conscription office - or else, they will find you. That is all. Slava!"

[Lower Nubia]

So looking at pictures of the Ukrainian troops involved in the offensive, those guys look pretty well armed, especially compared to what the average Russian soldier has.

I mean they have America, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Colombia, Turkey, Israel, Bulgaria, Greece, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Croatia, Slovakia, Poland, Slovenia, Czeczia, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Germany, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Norway, Sweden, Finland, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand giving them military aid while Russia has North Korea and Iran.

This is all just a proxy war between South Korea and North Korea.

[El Lazaro]

Taking Crimea also presents it's own challenges as the peninsula only has about two roads in and out through Ukraine, with a good deal of water separating much of the landmass from the continent. Truth be told Crimea is only a few sea levels short of being an island. This makes it more defensible and easier to secure from invasion, which is largely why Russia was able to take the whole thing without contest rather easily. I could see Ukraine pushing back into the Donbass and potentially taking it back while simultaneously pushing the Russians out of Southern Ukraine as well, but taking back Crimea may be a bit more difficult. Especially considering that out of every region it's the most virulently pro-Russian.

Tbh I don’t have a lot of hope for it, but there’s a chance that Russia decides it’s not worth defending if Ukraine liberates the mainland. After all, occupying Crimea and parts of the Donbas were a prelude to invasion. However, this won’t happen without a broader reevaluation of the Russian imperial project, which still very much seems to be the goal of Putin’s regime.

[Afrikan Staat]

They have no reserves. That's been the whole issue and why they're conscripting hexegenarians

"My dear fellow Russian citizens. I, the eternal KGB Czar of all the Russias, have decided that the glory that is the denazification of our homeland Ukraine, should not be the exclusive privilege of a few selected Nazi merc- err, heroic Russian contract soldiers, but the joy of every Russian man, woman, child, elderly and disabled person. Let us all embark on this great journey, this great special military service to Mother Russia, together! Therefore, as of this moment, I have ordered the start of a general mass mobilisation of the age groups 7 to 70. Everybody, please go and find your local conscription office - or else, they will find you. That is all. Slava!"

And their vast majority will depart equipped with sharpened bamboos.

[Adamede]

So looking at pictures of the Ukrainian troops involved in the offensive, those guys look pretty well armed, especially compared to what the average Russian soldier has.

If there is one thing Uncle Sam knows how to do, it's distribute weapons

Yah these guys have a lot of Western equipment. Also did you see that one video of the humvee gunner getting handed an endless supply of AT4s?

[Adamede]

So looking at pictures of the Ukrainian troops involved in the offensive, those guys look pretty well armed, especially compared to what the average Russian soldier has.

I mean they have America, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Colombia, Turkey, Israel, Bulgaria, Greece, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Croatia, Slovakia, Poland, Slovenia, Czeczia, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Germany, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Norway, Sweden, Finland, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand giving them military aid while Russia has North Korea and Iran.

Maybe Iran and North Korea should stop arming the Russians and tell them to surrender and end the war.

[Greater Guantanamo]

I mean they have America, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Colombia, Turkey, Israel, Bulgaria, Greece, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Croatia, Slovakia, Poland, Slovenia, Czeczia, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Germany, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Norway, Sweden, Finland, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand giving them military aid while Russia has North Korea and Iran.

Maybe Iran and North Korea should stop arming the Russians and tell them to surrender and end the war.

Yeah forcing Russia to fight to the last russian would be a true tragedy

[El Lazaro]

They have no reserves. That's been the whole issue and why they're conscripting hexegenarians

They have enormous reserves. The problem is, they don’t want ethnic Russian population centers to know there is a war (and they’re losing it by a lot.) If they resort to general mobilization, ultranationalist agitators and anti-war protesters will eat away at the apathy which keeps keeps the country stable.

[Adamede]

So reportedly the Ukrainians are on the outskirts of Sevierodonestk, y’know the territory that the Russians and their superiors claimed was lost to Ukraine forever.

[Etheren]

Maybe Iran and North Korea should stop arming the Russians and tell them to surrender and end the war.

Yeah forcing Russia to fight to the last russian would be a true tragedy

But if they are actaully thinking straight there the ones who are loosing

[Salus Maior]

They have no reserves. That's been the whole issue and why they're conscripting hexegenarians

Well, there hasn't been a conscription order, which is a key detail. These guys are all just volunteers.

[El Lazaro]

Russia has claimed that it is retreating from the Kharkiv Oblast to reinforce occupied Donetsk. There are rumors of Ukraine capturing Donetsk International Airport and advancing on the city, and that Denis Pushilin has fled to Russia.

[New Baltenstein]

Russia has claimed that it is retreating from the Kharkiv Oblast to reinforce occupied Donetsk. There are rumors of Ukraine capturing Donetsk International Airport and advancing on the city, and that Denis Pushilin has fled to Russia.

Rumors are apparently based on this video where Mr Pushilin can be seen sitting in a fast-driving car while enigmatically musing about "the difficult situation".

If the rumors turn out to be true, I'd stay away from high-story windows if I were him

[The New California Republic]

This vid just posted might show some of the huge numbers of Russian vehicles abandoned in the Izyum area: https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/15 ... 9210947584

It's worth watching, you need to see it to believe it, as there are literally dozens and dozens of vehicles in just one area.

[Spirit of Hope]

This vid just posted might show some of the huge numbers of Russian vehicles abandoned in the Izyum area: https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/15 ... 9210947584

It's worth watching, you need to see it to believe it, as there are literally dozens and dozens of vehicles in just one area.

Some report its a vehicle repair depot in Crimea. This is mostly claims on twitter though, so until someone does some work to confirm location we probably won't know for sure.

[The New California Republic]

This vid just posted might show some of the huge numbers of Russian vehicles abandoned in the Izyum area: https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/15 ... 9210947584

It's worth watching, you need to see it to believe it, as there are literally dozens and dozens of vehicles in just one area.

Some report its a vehicle repair depot in Crimea. This is mostly claims on twitter though, so until someone does some work to confirm location we probably won't know for sure.

If it is confirmed to be in Izyum then the Ukrainians need to move those vehicles out as fast as possible, as the Russians might target the area with cruise missiles, as that's a valuable prize.

[The Selkie]

Maybe Iran and North Korea should stop arming the Russians and tell them to surrender and end the war.

They won't. For one thing, they have advantages from continuing to sell weapons and equipment to Russia (namely, they earn money and can test their toys in combat without risking their own hides), for the other, they have no advantages from not selling weapons and equipment to Russia (NK will continue to be an international pariah state and Iran will still be sanctioned and not allowed to have anything with 'nuclear' in its name).
The longer the war goes, the more they can sell, too.

[Port Caverton]

Allies push for US weaponry after seeing impact in Ukraine

[Vistulange]

I'm a bit more sceptical about the prospects of Crimea being liberated from the rashists. Granted, I was also sceptical about the prospects of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, so massive grains of salt might be advised in considering my opinions on prospects of military operations.

One can still hope, though.