The Ukrainian War IV: "And von Moltke Laughed ..."

[Perikuresu]

All jokes aside with how much equipment they're leaving, I'm actually surprised they haven't booby-trapped the anything that they couldn't take with them.

With how fast they're running it's like the Russians trying to compete with Sonic, not the Ukrainians

[Spirit of Hope]

Ah well you see, the brave and clever Russian soldiers abandoned those vehicles on purpose, because they're cursed, and when the foolish Ukrainians capture them then they will be plagued by evil spirits.

All jokes aside with how much equipment they're leaving, I'm actually surprised they haven't booby-trapped the anything that they couldn't take with them.

Placing traps takes time and effort, not something troops in the middle of trying to escape a major encirclement are likely to engage in. Especially since most of the troops involved probably aren't well trained enough to place effective traps. The remaining good troops that Russia has have mostly been transferred to the Kherson region, the Russian troops near Kharkov and Izyum are definitly not the best Russia has to offer.

[Picairn]

If I were Putin right now I'd stop inhaling copium and restart peace negotiations. Preserving pre-Feb. 24 borders at this point is better than continuing a lost war and potentially lose all territory.

This is the smart option but I honestly don’t think he can do it at this point. If you go on Russian telegram channels and other spaces the stab in the back mythos is already taking shape and Putin is getting a lot of the blame. If he fully admits defeat and tries to come back to the table to talk I’m not sure he could hold onto power.

The nationalists are delusional, the reason they give candid critiques of the war effort is because they want a complete victory over Ukraine - a victory that is impossible without mass mobilization of manpower and resources, with potentially enormous political and economic consequences.

Putin may need to implement a crackdown on overt nationalist dissent if he admits defeat, but the nationalists' vision is incredibly destructive to Russian interests and society, and judging by the public Russian response to military recruitment I don't think a lot of Russians are willing to die for the nationalists' illusion. At worst Putin will likely be replaced by another ex-KGB bureaucrat, who will eventually negotiate anyway under the guise of "Peace with Honor".

[El Lazaro]

No matter how many Ukrainian victories I hear about, the Wikipedia map doesn't seem to have changed since about mid-March.

On the English Wikipedia? It shows similar information to the LiveUAmap and ISW reports from a few days ago.

[Northrop]

No matter how many Ukrainian victories I hear about, the Wikipedia map doesn't seem to have changed since about mid-March.

On the English Wikipedia? It shows similar information to the LiveUAmap and ISW reports from a few days ago.

Yeah, and it doesn't seem to have changed much at all for months.

[Picairn]

Last Rybar map of the day.

All Russian resistance on the road to Velykyi Burluk has effectively disintegrated, Ukrainian forces are marching to the city unhindered. The Russian puppet administrator of Kharkiv Oblast has recommended evacuation to all civilians in the area.

[Lord Dominator]

This has been a truly amazing coordinated counterattack, don’t normally here one of them described as a blitzkrieg.

[El Lazaro]

On the English Wikipedia? It shows similar information to the LiveUAmap and ISW reports from a few days ago.

Yeah, and it doesn't seem to have changed much at all for months.

Ok? Nobody is claiming the total destruction of Russian forces, but Ukraine has made significant progress and set the board for huge victories by breaking Russian supply lines and taking strategic locations. We’re basically talking about the northern front collapsing and the southern front staying east of the Dnipro River for the rest of the war if the counter-offensive continues to succeed. There will be massive Russian losses in Kherson, and Russia will remain on the defensive. Strategy is more than kilometers; Ukraine is setting up an endgame.

[ImperialRussia]

Here’s goes the Russians attacking the supply again

[The Two Jerseys]

All jokes aside with how much equipment they're leaving, I'm actually surprised they haven't booby-trapped the anything that they couldn't take with them.

Placing traps takes time and effort, not something troops in the middle of trying to escape a major encirclement are likely to engage in. Especially since most of the troops involved probably aren't well trained enough to place effective traps. The remaining good troops that Russia has have mostly been transferred to the Kherson region, the Russian troops near Kharkov and Izyum are definitly not the best Russia has to offer.

Besides, the only demolition fuse they apparently have is Ivan and Sergei smoking around flammable materials...

[Adamede]

No matter how many Ukrainian victories I hear about, the Wikipedia map doesn't seem to have changed since about mid-March.

You really should take another look at it then. The Ukrainians have liberated Izyum.

[Salus Maior]

If I were Putin right now I'd stop inhaling copium and restart peace negotiations. Preserving pre-Feb. 24 borders at this point is better than continuing a lost war and potentially lose all territory.

Zelenskyy has repeated said that he wants all Ukraine territory back, which I imagine will include the breakoff states and Crimea.

Tbh I don't see why, especially with this complete disintegration of Russian defense, he would settle for anything less. I don't think I would.

[Nimzonia]

Ah well you see, the brave and clever Russian soldiers abandoned those vehicles on purpose, because they're cursed, and when the foolish Ukrainians capture them then they will be plagued by evil spirits.

All jokes aside with how much equipment they're leaving, I'm actually surprised they haven't booby-trapped the anything that they couldn't take with them.

Never mind booby traps (that requires a bare modicum of ingenuity), you'd think they'd at least blow stuff up to deny it to the Ukrainians. They're leaving whole ammo dumps behind. It sounds like they're literally just dropping everything and running.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Honestly at this rate i think if i just went to Ukraine i think i would have a 12-15% chance of just finding a tank lying about for myself.

Dont think the Ukrainians would let me leave with it but i could probably find one intact

[New Baltenstein]

Honestly at this rate i think if i just went to Ukraine i think i would have a 12-15% chance of just finding a tank lying about for myself.

Dont think the Ukrainians would let me leave with it but i could probably find one intact

New market niche for the post-war Ukrainian economy: Selling left-behind Russian military hardware to tourists.

The first 1000 T-90 customers can pick between a AK 74 assault rifle or a SV Dragunov sniper rifle free of charge!

[Spirit of Hope]

If I were Putin right now I'd stop inhaling copium and restart peace negotiations. Preserving pre-Feb. 24 borders at this point is better than continuing a lost war and potentially lose all territory.

Zelenskyy has repeated said that he wants all Ukraine territory back, which I imagine will include the breakoff states and Crimea.

Tbh I don't see why, especially with this complete disintegration of Russian defense, he would settle for anything less. I don't think I would.

While the Ukrainian offensive around Izyum has certainly produced results that it looks like Ukraine will exploit further around Kharkiv and potentially down towards Luhansk, this does not mean that the entire Russian front is collapsing. While Ukraine is making progress in Kherson it is not at the same rate and is against significant resistance in terrain where they have heavily constrained Russia's ability to reinforce/resupply. If Ukraine were to take back Kherson and surrounding territory they would face having to cross the Danube to further push Russia out of southern Ukraine and out of Crimea. Plus Russia looks to have an ok grip on the Zaporizhzhia area where Ukraine is not pushing at this time.

So end of the day the current offensives look good for Ukraine but they are not the same thing as a complete collapse of Russia at this time.

[Salus Maior]

Zelenskyy has repeated said that he wants all Ukraine territory back, which I imagine will include the breakoff states and Crimea.

Tbh I don't see why, especially with this complete disintegration of Russian defense, he would settle for anything less. I don't think I would.

While the Ukrainian offensive around Izyum has certainly produced results that it looks like Ukraine will exploit further around Kharkiv and potentially down towards Luhansk, this does not mean that the entire Russian front is collapsing. While Ukraine is making progress in Kherson it is not at the same rate and is against significant resistance in terrain where they have heavily constrained Russia's ability to reinforce/resupply. If Ukraine were to take back Kherson and surrounding territory they would face having to cross the Danube to further push Russia out of southern Ukraine and out of Crimea. Plus Russia looks to have an ok grip on the Zaporizhzhia area where Ukraine is not pushing at this time.

So end of the day the current offensives look good for Ukraine but they are not the same thing as a complete collapse of Russia at this time.

The Dneiper you mean.

[Sordhau]

All jokes aside with how much equipment they're leaving, I'm actually surprised they haven't booby-trapped the anything that they couldn't take with them.

Never mind booby traps (that requires a bare modicum of ingenuity), you'd think they'd at least blow stuff up to deny it to the Ukrainians. They're leaving whole ammo dumps behind. It sounds like they're literally just dropping everything and running.

The difference between a retreat and a rout.

[Adamede]

On the English Wikipedia? It shows similar information to the LiveUAmap and ISW reports from a few days ago.

Yeah, and it doesn't seem to have changed much at all for months.

You really haven’t been paying attention then.

[Spirit of Hope]

While the Ukrainian offensive around Izyum has certainly produced results that it looks like Ukraine will exploit further around Kharkiv and potentially down towards Luhansk, this does not mean that the entire Russian front is collapsing. While Ukraine is making progress in Kherson it is not at the same rate and is against significant resistance in terrain where they have heavily constrained Russia's ability to reinforce/resupply. If Ukraine were to take back Kherson and surrounding territory they would face having to cross the Danube to further push Russia out of southern Ukraine and out of Crimea. Plus Russia looks to have an ok grip on the Zaporizhzhia area where Ukraine is not pushing at this time.

So end of the day the current offensives look good for Ukraine but they are not the same thing as a complete collapse of Russia at this time.

The Dneiper you mean.

Correct.

[Sordhau]

Zelenskyy has repeated said that he wants all Ukraine territory back, which I imagine will include the breakoff states and Crimea.

Tbh I don't see why, especially with this complete disintegration of Russian defense, he would settle for anything less. I don't think I would.

While the Ukrainian offensive around Izyum has certainly produced results that it looks like Ukraine will exploit further around Kharkiv and potentially down towards Luhansk, this does not mean that the entire Russian front is collapsing. While Ukraine is making progress in Kherson it is not at the same rate and is against significant resistance in terrain where they have heavily constrained Russia's ability to reinforce/resupply. If Ukraine were to take back Kherson and surrounding territory they would face having to cross the Danube to further push Russia out of southern Ukraine and out of Crimea. Plus Russia looks to have an ok grip on the Zaporizhzhia area where Ukraine is not pushing at this time.

So end of the day the current offensives look good for Ukraine but they are not the same thing as a complete collapse of Russia at this time.

Taking Crimea also presents it's own challenges as the peninsula only has about two roads in and out through Ukraine, with a good deal of water separating much of the landmass from the continent. Truth be told Crimea is only a few sea levels short of being an island. This makes it more defensible and easier to secure from invasion, which is largely why Russia was able to take the whole thing without contest rather easily. I could see Ukraine pushing back into the Donbass and potentially taking it back while simultaneously pushing the Russians out of Southern Ukraine as well, but taking back Crimea may be a bit more difficult. Especially considering that out of every region it's the most virulently pro-Russian.

[Fractalnavel]

Possibly relevant: https://xkcd.com/1731/

[The New California Republic]

Possibly relevant: https://xkcd.com/1731/

What?

[Adamede]

So looking at pictures of the Ukrainian troops involved in the offensive, those guys look pretty well armed, especially compared to what the average Russian soldier has.

[Adamede]

While the Ukrainian offensive around Izyum has certainly produced results that it looks like Ukraine will exploit further around Kharkiv and potentially down towards Luhansk, this does not mean that the entire Russian front is collapsing. While Ukraine is making progress in Kherson it is not at the same rate and is against significant resistance in terrain where they have heavily constrained Russia's ability to reinforce/resupply. If Ukraine were to take back Kherson and surrounding territory they would face having to cross the Danube to further push Russia out of southern Ukraine and out of Crimea. Plus Russia looks to have an ok grip on the Zaporizhzhia area where Ukraine is not pushing at this time.

So end of the day the current offensives look good for Ukraine but they are not the same thing as a complete collapse of Russia at this time.

Taking Crimea also presents it's own challenges as the peninsula only has about two roads in and out through Ukraine, with a good deal of water separating much of the landmass from the continent. Truth be told Crimea is only a few sea levels short of being an island. This makes it more defensible and easier to secure from invasion, which is largely why Russia was able to take the whole thing without contest rather easily. I could see Ukraine pushing back into the Donbass and potentially taking it back while simultaneously pushing the Russians out of Southern Ukraine as well, but taking back Crimea may be a bit more difficult. Especially considering that out of every region it's the most virulently pro-Russian.

Thing is it’s also way harder for the Russians to resupply and way easier for the Ukrainians to destroy Russian supply lines to the Peninsula. If the Ukrainians can secure the south the Leech bridge would be destroyed sooner or later, and the Ukrainians have already shown they’re capable of destroying Russian war ships and air craft.