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The war in Somalia

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Islamic Essarn
Diplomat
 
Posts: 542
Founded: Nov 25, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby Islamic Essarn » Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:13 am

Sordhau wrote:
Islamic Essarn wrote:
It’s better just to help the people get by, by building some schools hospitals and training people to work in them and also to give them stuff to use in agroculture.


No one is going to do that out of the goodness of their heart. Any country that decides to invest in Somalia is going to protect their investment by whatever means necessary; i.e., turn Somalia into a client state in all but name. This is how all the major empires work these days.


Just because it does’t happen a lot does’t mean it can’t happen here.

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Shofercia
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Posts: 31339
Founded: Feb 22, 2008
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Shofercia » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:56 pm

The Aber wrote:"World Wars tend to be short sheerly because of their destructive nature."
Well yeah, because no side is crazy or ambitious enough to want to go on. Both leaders and soldiers alike.


And there's also the possibility of running out of soldiers. During WWI I seem to remember a joke about the doctor sending a soldier with a wooden leg to the front, and the soldier responded "yes sir, and I will come back with a wooden head and become a doctor!"


Space Squid wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
First, 2/15 is 13%, I don't see how that's adversarial, that's just a fact. Second, where is your source for the million Somalis passing through USAID camps? Third, as long as Newsom fails to comprehend the basics of Gann, I will continue to make fun of him.

I think anyone can see that you're pointlessly adversarial. That's just a fact.

In simplest terms (to avoid your strawmen): the US been the largest contributor of humanitarian aid to the Horn of Africa for the last 30 years. Many of the people receiving said aid are Somali, including Somali nationals, and the over 11 million Somalis who live in Ethiopia, and roughly 3 million who live in Kenya and Djibouti. It is not possible to say with certainty how many of those people would have died without aid, but over a 30-year period, a couple of million is not an outrageous number.

And I never mentioned emigration to the US or EU at all.


Not buying USAID's propaganda when I have actual statistics is being pointlessly adversarial? And my good sir, would you be so kind as to cite a single strawman that I've stated? As for you never mentioning emigration:

The Somali diaspora numbers over a million almost all of which passed through refugee camps that are primarily fed by USAID

So when you speak of diaspora going from their country of origin to another country through a refugee camp, you're not talking about emigration. Got it. I'm presuming that pointing this out is also me being adversarial. In 2021, US contribution to Somalia was roughly $400 million. I'm not sure how much of that is for food, water medical care, versus staff support, bribing various leaders, etc. Overall aid flow to Somalia was about $2 billion, with UN praising Germany, rather than the US, as the donor with the most significant increase.

According to Brown University, the cost of the Iraq War was about $8 trillion. During the COVID period, $13 trillion were printed. Would you like me to point out how tiny an amount $400 million is in comparison? It's 0.005%. This whole discussion reminds me of the time when corporations thought it'd be a really cool idea to donate $2 million to a worthy cause and spend $200 million advertising it. That, erm, failed.
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Space Squid
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Posts: 806
Founded: Feb 04, 2022
Ex-Nation

Postby Space Squid » Sun Jun 05, 2022 2:51 pm

Shofercia wrote:
The Aber wrote:"World Wars tend to be short sheerly because of their destructive nature."
Well yeah, because no side is crazy or ambitious enough to want to go on. Both leaders and soldiers alike.


And there's also the possibility of running out of soldiers. During WWI I seem to remember a joke about the doctor sending a soldier with a wooden leg to the front, and the soldier responded "yes sir, and I will come back with a wooden head and become a doctor!"


Space Squid wrote:I think anyone can see that you're pointlessly adversarial. That's just a fact.

In simplest terms (to avoid your strawmen): the US been the largest contributor of humanitarian aid to the Horn of Africa for the last 30 years. Many of the people receiving said aid are Somali, including Somali nationals, and the over 11 million Somalis who live in Ethiopia, and roughly 3 million who live in Kenya and Djibouti. It is not possible to say with certainty how many of those people would have died without aid, but over a 30-year period, a couple of million is not an outrageous number.

And I never mentioned emigration to the US or EU at all.


Not buying USAID's propaganda when I have actual statistics is being pointlessly adversarial? And my good sir, would you be so kind as to cite a single strawman that I've stated? As for you never mentioning emigration:

The Somali diaspora numbers over a million almost all of which passed through refugee camps that are primarily fed by USAID

So when you speak of diaspora going from their country of origin to another country through a refugee camp, you're not talking about emigration. Got it. I'm presuming that pointing this out is also me being adversarial. In 2021, US contribution to Somalia was roughly $400 million. I'm not sure how much of that is for food, water medical care, versus staff support, bribing various leaders, etc. Overall aid flow to Somalia was about $2 billion, with UN praising Germany, rather than the US, as the donor with the most significant increase.

According to Brown University, the cost of the Iraq War was about $8 trillion. During the COVID period, $13 trillion were printed. Would you like me to point out how tiny an amount $400 million is in comparison? It's 0.005%. This whole discussion reminds me of the time when corporations thought it'd be a really cool idea to donate $2 million to a worthy cause and spend $200 million advertising it. That, erm, failed.

So let's focus on this:
The Somali diaspora numbers over a million almost all of which passed through refugee camps that are primarily fed by USAID

This is your responce:
Shofercia wrote:Millions implies 2 million or more, and if you divided 2 million by 15 million you get... wait for it... 13%! Or are we using the Amber Heard definition of millions?

So to be clear, I was denying arguing that the US saved 13% of Somalia's population with "just a few hundred troops." As you claimed I did here:
as your argument is that the US saved over 13% of Somalia's population with just a few hundred troops seems a bit odd.

You will note that I did not mention anything about troops. My posts are about food aid. You will also note that there are many Somalis living outside of Somalia. In fact you did note that. So you know that this is wrong on multiple levels, and yet you respond to a point I did not make with indignity and scorn. Shame on you.

Also, according to the US Census, there were 183 thousand Somali living in the US out of whom 76 thousand were foreign born. That's a margin of error of 81.7% from your million citation, which makes you qualified for the Newsom Administration.

Notice that I never mentioned the number of Somalis brought to the US. I mentioned that the million or so Somalis that fled Somalia mostly passed through refugee camps that were mostly fed by USAID. The point was about what they ate while they were emigrating, not where they emigrated to. This is a straight-forward reading of the text.

You are responding to a point I did not make with indignity and scorn. Shame on you.

So no, we didn't have USAID bringing over a million Somali to the US.

Notice that I never said they did.

You are responding to a point I did not make. Shame on you.

Now you can claim that it's somehow a million in the US/EU, but even the most generous counting is far below that.

You'll notice that I never did.

You are responding to a point I did not make. Shame on you.

If you're talking about the overall diaspora, then you should know that Ethiopia's over 11 million and Kenya is over 2.5 million.

Also some in Djibouti. These numbers were actually factored into my rough estimates for how many lives have been saved by US food aid over the last 30 years. Because many of them are food insecure as well.

Essentially, when it comes to praising USAID, you don't seem to have the data backing it up.

What I did was more of a Fermi estimate. "Is a couple million lives saved a reasonable outcome of 30 years of food aid?" Given that USAID is the largest contributor in the Horn of Africa. If you want data about how much food aid has been given, that's easy to do ($361 million this year.) You can argue that this is not enough, but it's more than anyone else is giving. And a lot of Somalis, and other people, are dependent on these shipments.

All of this represents a clear pattern of strawmaning, and basically dishonest, reprehensible, adversarial behavior. I am not sure who pissed in your corn flakes, but I have no interest in further discussion with someone who conducts themselves in this way. I have never used the block function in the past, but I don't think there's anything to be gained by reading anything you have to say, ever again.

I hope you work out whatever issues cause you to behave like this. Farewell.
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The Aber
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Founded: Dec 19, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby The Aber » Sun Jun 05, 2022 3:43 pm

"And there's also the possibility of running out of soldiers. " Which is also a risque quote I have for my nation. "Other countries often fear of running out of soldiers. Us? When you have a population of almost 20 billion because of approximately 10K years of fucking like rabbits, you won't have to worry in the slightest".
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Yanitza
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Father Knows Best State

Postby Yanitza » Sun Jun 05, 2022 10:43 pm

https://www.voanews.com/a/somalia-hails ... 02727.html

The U.S seem to be adopting a light footprint approach, with a limited number of troops on the ground and a reliance on drone strikes, which is the posture they had adopted since the mid 2000s. I don't know if its been mentioned in this thread yet but the U.S has been consistently involved in Somali affairs since the beginning of the War on Terror, so this recent announcement is a continuation of this policy, not something necessarily new.

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Risottia
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Postby Risottia » Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:30 pm

The Aber wrote:I was gonna say give it to Italy, but...

How about fucking no, the AOI was a damn sink of lire.
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The Lone Alliance
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Postby The Lone Alliance » Tue Jun 07, 2022 3:25 pm

Islamic Essarn wrote:Maybe instead of trying to get rid of this generation of terrorist, the USA should focus on stopping the next generation by actually trying to improve the Somali economy which would stop as manny desperate people join terrorist organizations.

Somalia is inherently unsavagable, the best option would be to ship everyone in the country somewhere else.The Water supplies are limited because of the climate and this isn't an era where ships need to stop in port regularly for supplies so there's no reason to even use Somalia as a waystation. About the one thing that could have kept Somalia on the map was it's fishing industry but illegal dumping of toxic waste completely ruined that. The region isn't friendly to any major developments either because of the situation of that part of the world making things hectic.
Last edited by The Lone Alliance on Tue Jun 07, 2022 3:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Islamic Essarn
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Posts: 542
Founded: Nov 25, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby Islamic Essarn » Tue Jun 07, 2022 5:28 pm

The Lone Alliance wrote:
Islamic Essarn wrote:Maybe instead of trying to get rid of this generation of terrorist, the USA should focus on stopping the next generation by actually trying to improve the Somali economy which would stop as manny desperate people join terrorist organizations.

Somalia is inherently unsavagable, the best option would be to ship everyone in the country somewhere else.The Water supplies are limited because of the climate and this isn't an era where ships need to stop in port regularly for supplies so there's no reason to even use Somalia as a waystation. About the one thing that could have kept Somalia on the map was it's fishing industry but illegal dumping of toxic waste completely ruined that. The region isn't friendly to any major developments either because of the situation of that part of the world making things hectic.


Somalia has quit a few mineral reserves and farm animals.

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Jewish Underground State
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Jewish Underground State » Tue Jun 07, 2022 5:44 pm

The Lone Alliance wrote:
Islamic Essarn wrote:Maybe instead of trying to get rid of this generation of terrorist, the USA should focus on stopping the next generation by actually trying to improve the Somali economy which would stop as manny desperate people join terrorist organizations.

Somalia is inherently unsavagable, the best option would be to ship everyone in the country somewhere else.The Water supplies are limited because of the climate and this isn't an era where ships need to stop in port regularly for supplies so there's no reason to even use Somalia as a waystation. About the one thing that could have kept Somalia on the map was it's fishing industry but illegal dumping of toxic waste completely ruined that. The region isn't friendly to any major developments either because of the situation of that part of the world making things hectic.

No country would take in that many immigrants.
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Shofercia
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Shofercia » Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:48 pm

Space Squid wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
And there's also the possibility of running out of soldiers. During WWI I seem to remember a joke about the doctor sending a soldier with a wooden leg to the front, and the soldier responded "yes sir, and I will come back with a wooden head and become a doctor!"




Not buying USAID's propaganda when I have actual statistics is being pointlessly adversarial? And my good sir, would you be so kind as to cite a single strawman that I've stated? As for you never mentioning emigration:

The Somali diaspora numbers over a million almost all of which passed through refugee camps that are primarily fed by USAID

So when you speak of diaspora going from their country of origin to another country through a refugee camp, you're not talking about emigration. Got it. I'm presuming that pointing this out is also me being adversarial. In 2021, US contribution to Somalia was roughly $400 million. I'm not sure how much of that is for food, water medical care, versus staff support, bribing various leaders, etc. Overall aid flow to Somalia was about $2 billion, with UN praising Germany, rather than the US, as the donor with the most significant increase.

According to Brown University, the cost of the Iraq War was about $8 trillion. During the COVID period, $13 trillion were printed. Would you like me to point out how tiny an amount $400 million is in comparison? It's 0.005%. This whole discussion reminds me of the time when corporations thought it'd be a really cool idea to donate $2 million to a worthy cause and spend $200 million advertising it. That, erm, failed.

So let's focus on this:
The Somali diaspora numbers over a million almost all of which passed through refugee camps that are primarily fed by USAID

This is your responce:
Shofercia wrote:Millions implies 2 million or more, and if you divided 2 million by 15 million you get... wait for it... 13%! Or are we using the Amber Heard definition of millions?

So to be clear, I was denying arguing that the US saved 13% of Somalia's population with "just a few hundred troops." As you claimed I did here:
as your argument is that the US saved over 13% of Somalia's population with just a few hundred troops seems a bit odd.

You will note that I did not mention anything about troops. My posts are about food aid. You will also note that there are many Somalis living outside of Somalia. In fact you did note that. So you know that this is wrong on multiple levels, and yet you respond to a point I did not make with indignity and scorn. Shame on you.

Also, according to the US Census, there were 183 thousand Somali living in the US out of whom 76 thousand were foreign born. That's a margin of error of 81.7% from your million citation, which makes you qualified for the Newsom Administration.

Notice that I never mentioned the number of Somalis brought to the US. I mentioned that the million or so Somalis that fled Somalia mostly passed through refugee camps that were mostly fed by USAID. The point was about what they ate while they were emigrating, not where they emigrated to. This is a straight-forward reading of the text.

You are responding to a point I did not make with indignity and scorn. Shame on you.

So no, we didn't have USAID bringing over a million Somali to the US.

Notice that I never said they did.

You are responding to a point I did not make. Shame on you.

Now you can claim that it's somehow a million in the US/EU, but even the most generous counting is far below that.

You'll notice that I never did.

You are responding to a point I did not make. Shame on you.

If you're talking about the overall diaspora, then you should know that Ethiopia's over 11 million and Kenya is over 2.5 million.

Also some in Djibouti. These numbers were actually factored into my rough estimates for how many lives have been saved by US food aid over the last 30 years. Because many of them are food insecure as well.

Essentially, when it comes to praising USAID, you don't seem to have the data backing it up.

What I did was more of a Fermi estimate. "Is a couple million lives saved a reasonable outcome of 30 years of food aid?" Given that USAID is the largest contributor in the Horn of Africa. If you want data about how much food aid has been given, that's easy to do ($361 million this year.) You can argue that this is not enough, but it's more than anyone else is giving. And a lot of Somalis, and other people, are dependent on these shipments.

All of this represents a clear pattern of strawmaning, and basically dishonest, reprehensible, adversarial behavior. I am not sure who pissed in your corn flakes, but I have no interest in further discussion with someone who conducts themselves in this way. I have never used the block function in the past, but I don't think there's anything to be gained by reading anything you have to say, ever again.

I hope you work out whatever issues cause you to behave like this. Farewell.


Do you actually have a source that's not USAID, talking about a million Somalis, or more, passing through camps? Let's look at the initial conversation:

Paddy O Fernature wrote:Or better yet, the US can just give the country the middle finger and pull out completely and focus on it's own problems for a change. Let the locals sleep in the bed they have made.

Jewish Underground State wrote:At this point. That's fine. Whenever the usa does something in the islamic world they only make things worse.

Space Squid wrote:This is not true. The United States is the single largest donor of humanitarian assistance in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, and is responsible for saving millions of Somali lives both in Somalia, and in refugee camps in neighboring countries. It's just that you never hear about that, and the US never gets a shred of credit for it.


Savings millions of Somali lives, both in Somalia and in refugee camps in neighboring countries. To which I responded, asking for a source: Considering that Somalia's population is only 15 million, I'm going to need a source for that millions of lives claim, as your argument is that the US saved over 13% of Somalia's population with just a few hundred troops seems a bit odd.

A source was never provided. Shame on you Space Squid. Let's keep going:

Space Squid wrote:This is pointlessly adversarial, and displays very poor reading comprehension. You continue to argue against points that I did not make, and I'm not going to indulge you.


Ah, the initially quoted post that you made, Space Squid, is an absolutely stellar demonstration of non-indulging, akin to those millions Somalis saved by USAID. Shame on you. Now to go over this current iteration of you non-indulging me without providing any non-USAID source for your claim.

First, the reason I brought troops in,
was because you said "saving millions of Somali lives both in Somalia, and in refugee camps in neighboring countries"
instead of saying: "saving Somali lives in refugee camps located in both in Somalia, and in neighboring countries"

Had you initially implied that you were only talking about refugee camps, I wouldn't have brought up the troops angle. You'll notice that once you made it clear that you were only talking about humanitarian aid, I dropped the troops angle. Next you went on to say "pointlessly adversarial" while engaging in what you earlier implied a "pointlessly adversarial" discussion, shame on you.

And you're right, you didn't mention the amount of Somali brought to the US; in fact, you hardly mentioned any statistics, but you repeatedly stated "USAID saved millions Somalis" without ever citing a non-USAID sources, shame on you.

Now you finally admitted that you used a Fermi estimate, which you've based on nothing but estimates. So you have an estimate, based on estimates, and I'm pointlessly adversarial for pointing this bullshit out. Riiiight. To quote yourself:

All of this represents a clear pattern of strawmaning, making up numbers, and basically dishonest, reprehensible, adversarial behavior. I am not sure who pissed in your corn flakes, but I have no interest in further discussion with someone who conducts themselves in this way. I have never used the block function in the past, but I don't think there's anything to be gained by reading anything you have to say, ever again.

I hope you work out whatever issues cause you to behave like this. Farewell.
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