UK Politics Thread X: Boris party report released

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Is BoJo's MP seat still safe? <.<

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

Is BoJo's MP seat still safe? <.<

I might be overly cynical but I think he only became an MP so he could become PM. I can't see him sitting on the backbenches diligently doing constituency work, or working in some other PM's cabinet. He will seek some other avenue to become world king.

[The Archregimancy]

Here are the 10 biggest by-election swings in history (excluding by-elections where the sitting MP won under a different party banner - so Clacton 2014 and Lincoln 1973):

1983 Bermondsey; 44.2%; Labour -> Liberal
1967 Hamilton; 37.9%; Labour -> SNP
2012 Bradford West; 36.6%; Labour -> Respect
1993 Christchurch; 35.4%; Conservative -> Liberal Democrats
2021 North Shropshire; 34.2%; Conservative -> Liberal Democrats
1988 Glasgow Govan; 33.1% Labour -> SNP
1972 Sutton and Cheam; 32.6%; Conservative -> Liberal
1979 Liverpool Edge Hill; 30.2%; Labour -> Liberal
1935 Liverpool Wavertree; 30.0%; Conservative -> Labour
2022 Tiverton and Honiton; 29.9%; Conservative -> Liberal Democrats

I can't find a list of largest majorities overturned in a by-election, but I do know Tiverton & Honiton has set a new record there.

[Philjia]

Since the Libs seem to be able to win Conservative safe seats at will in by elections if they choose to do so, it might be in Boris's interest to ensure that all his MPs are in perfect health and not doing anything illegal.

I really, genuinely, honestly didn't think that Tiverton result was going to happen; and certainly not by that margin.

You also thought they'd lose by 4 or 5% in Chesham and Amersham, where they also got a ~30% swing and won an majority of the vote, although to be fair that was the first of this year's crushing by election victories for the Libs.

[The Archregimancy]

Is BoJo's MP seat still safe? <.<

According to Electoral Calculus, the Labour Party are favourites to win the PM's seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip under the most recent boundary changes.

I would take that with a certain pinch of salt. Electoral Calculus has its uses, but it has its limits when it comes to projecting national / regional trends to specific seats.

Dominic Raab is in far more danger; he only won Esher & Walton by 2700 votes in the last election, with the LibDems increasing their vote share in 2019 by over 27%.


The last time a party leader and outgoing PM lost his seat in a general election was, I think, Conservative Party leader Arthur Balfour in the Jan-Feb 1906 Liberal landslide. However, Balfour wasn't PM when the election took place; he had resigned as PM in December 1905 as a tactical manoeuvre to try and force Liberal leader Campbell-Bannerman into forming a weak Liberal government without calling a general election. But while Campbell-Bannerman did accept the office of PM in December 1905, he both immediately called Balfour's bluff and faced down an attempt within his own party to move him to the Lords, and led the Liberal Party to one of the greatest landslide victories in UK political history in the immediately following general election.

[The Archregimancy]

I really, genuinely, honestly didn't think that Tiverton result was going to happen; and certainly not by that margin.

You also thought they'd lose by 4 or 5% in Chesham and Amersham

I was about to write 'are you sure'?, but so I did.

You know, I'd honestly forgotten that, too; I was more careful with North Shropshire, mind.

But as I wrote to Nationalist Northumbria yesterday, no one should be making bets on the basis of my predictions in these threads.

[Shamhnan Insir]

Raab was rattled this morning. He's in over his head and I do wonder if at this point he'll be questioning how much he wants to distance himself from the PM at the moment. I would imagine there will be some shuffling to come and he might find himself being led to Chairperson, or Dorries (Gods forbid....)

[The Nihilistic view]

I'm just suprised you lot still want him gone, you should want him to stay for the next election.

[The Archregimancy]

I'm just suprised you lot still want him gone, you should want him to stay for the next election.

I've always freely acknowledged that the Prime Minister is the Liberal Democrats' greatest electoral asset. I've previously generously thanked Mr Johnson for his important contributions to the party's recent by-election victories; we couldn't have done it without him.

But, oddly enough, I'm also able to put country before party; and what's best for the country is the removal of Mr Johnson as Prime Minister.

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

As the chap from ConservativeHome is saying on the news at this moment, the people in 10 Downing Street are not team Tory, or team Britain, but team Boris.

[Heloin]

Congrats to the lads in the NIP for their *checks notes* 84 votes.

[The Archregimancy]

Congrats to the lads in the NIP for their *checks notes* 84 votes.

Almost 1100 votes fewer than the Yorkshire Party (1182 votes).

[Heloin]

Congrats to the lads in the NIP for their *checks notes* 84 votes.

Almost 1100 votes fewer than the Yorkshire Party (1182 votes).

To be fair, they did come only second last ahead of the literal fascist. (though 227 under the other literal fascist)

[Ifreann]

Freude, schöner Götterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische, dein Heiligtum!
Deine Zauber binden wieder
Was die Mode streng geteilt;
Alle Menschen werden Brüder
Wo dein sanfter Flügel weilt!

[The Nihilistic view]

I'm just suprised you lot still want him gone, you should want him to stay for the next election.

I've always freely acknowledged that the Prime Minister is the Liberal Democrats' greatest electoral asset. I've previously generously thanked Mr Johnson for his important contributions to the party's recent by-election victories; we couldn't have done it without him.

But, oddly enough, I'm also able to put country before party; and what's best for the country is the removal of Mr Johnson as Prime Minister.

And the country needs pork markets..... I get you.

I think an intresting question really would be what is it about policy that you think would substantially change for the better and why the risk of a more right wing PM would in your view be putting the County before party. Presumably you think the country needs the Liberal Democrats. So if that is the case does it not then really boil down to personality as the reason and not what the country needs?

[The Archregimancy]

I've always freely acknowledged that the Prime Minister is the Liberal Democrats' greatest electoral asset. I've previously generously thanked Mr Johnson for his important contributions to the party's recent by-election victories; we couldn't have done it without him.

But, oddly enough, I'm also able to put country before party; and what's best for the country is the removal of Mr Johnson as Prime Minister.

And the country needs pork markets..... I get you.

I think an intresting question really would be what is it about policy that you think would substantially change for the better and why the risk of a more right wing PM would in your view be putting the County before party. Presumably you think the country needs the Liberal Democrats. So if that is the case does it not then really boil down to personality as the reason and not what the country needs?

I would place an different emphasis on that last point, but I think the priority is replacing the Prime Minister with someone more suited to the role.

Clearly I have substantive policy disagreements with the Conservative Party leadership, but I've been clear from before he became Prime Minister that Mr Johnson is manifestly unsuited to the office he currently holds. His chaotic management style and cavalier approach to rules - the latter being a life-long habit rather than a newly acquired flaw - are fundamentally damaging to our rules-based constitutional system. His behaviour isn't a temporary bug that can be fixed by more discipline; it's an inevitable feature of how he's always behaved. The current Johnson-led government doesn't really have principles or a clearly articulated philosophy of government, instead it largely has short-term goals designed to shore up the Prime Minister. It's a grotesque parody of British small-c conservatism.

Changing Prime Minister and replacing him with another Conservative would likely make little impact on most of the policies that really matter to me (except possibly preserving the Union in Great Britain), and would also likely lessen the chances of the Liberal Democrats doing well in the next election, but it increases our chances as a country of returning to a government where I can freely disagree over policy without having to worry quite as much about the ongoing damage to the conventions that underpin our unwritten constitutions, the damage to the Union, or the damage to our relationships with our closest allies.

If you want to frame that as 'boiling down to personality', then so be it; but Conservative Party members can continue to support Brexit and whatever other core reforms that they might cherish without being led by a man who threatens to lead their party to electoral oblivion precisely because of the ongoing and inevitable impact of his manifest and long-known personality flaws. These are proving as damaging to his own party as to the country.


And, on last night's evidence, clearly there's a growing number of small-c conservative voters - not to mention members of the capital-C Conservative Party - who agree with that assessment.

[Vassenor]

So when does the 1922 committee get the knives out?

[Densaner]

Glad the fetid Tories lost both seats, I’m sick to the back teeth of that shower of….people. I hope Boris stays, for a while at least, keep steering the ship on to the rocks, lying toe rag.

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

According to the BBC

"What is significant is that Conservative MPs are about to vote for who they want to lead the 1922 Committee – the Tory institution with so much influence over the leadership.

If enough of them vote for candidates willing to change the rules on when another contest can be held, it could cause a huge headache for Johnson."

This should be interesting.

[The Nihilistic view]

So when does the 1922 committee get the knives out?

Hopefully not the 30th June.

[Ostroeuropa]

Systems Designer should have won in Bermondsey, it's all been downhill since they lost.

[Vassenor]

According to the BBC

"What is significant is that Conservative MPs are about to vote for who they want to lead the 1922 Committee – the Tory institution with so much influence over the leadership.

If enough of them vote for candidates willing to change the rules on when another contest can be held, it could cause a huge headache for Johnson."

This should be interesting.

So changing the rules for a do-over vote on BORIS OUT is OK but a do-over vote on Brexit is the worst thing ever.

[Nationalist Northumbria]

Well, much like Jeremy Corbyn, we won the argument.

[Openshaw]

So changing the rules for a do-over vote on BORIS OUT is OK but a do-over vote on Brexit is the worst thing ever.

It's up to the electorate. If a party so wishes they can put it in their manifesto and take it to the next GE and see how they do. Thing is parties have this tendency to want to win elections rather than lose them.

[Shamhnan Insir]

Catching up with some of the other developments and had my attention directed to the mess that was Question Time yesterday evening.

I have to say there were several audience members who are clearly suspect as plants or at least misdirection actors to distract attention from the main topics being discussed.