UK Politics Thread X: Upcoming Local Elections in May

[New-Minneapolis]

So, how many seats flipped from Tory to Libdem? And did I hear correctly that some seats flipped from blue to green? How does that happen?!

People like the colour green. Also probably tons of local factors and environmental issues and other things like such as that.

The Liberal Democrats gained 405 councillors and control of 12 councils in the local elections, however not all of those came from the Conservatives (though a majority did i would wager). The Greens won control of one council and gained 241 councillors. The council they took control of was Mid Suffolk, where the Greens won 12 seats (almost all of them from the Conservatives), giving them a total of 24 in that council, winning complete control of it

So the Tories got shagged at the ballot box. But does this voter outrage at the blues last until the next general? Sunak isn't going to call a snap election

[Vassenor]

People like the colour green. Also probably tons of local factors and environmental issues and other things like such as that.

The Liberal Democrats gained 405 councillors and control of 12 councils in the local elections, however not all of those came from the Conservatives (though a majority did i would wager). The Greens won control of one council and gained 241 councillors. The council they took control of was Mid Suffolk, where the Greens won 12 seats (almost all of them from the Conservatives), giving them a total of 24 in that council, winning complete control of it

So the Tories got shagged at the ballot box. But does this voter outrage at the blues last until the next general? Sunak isn't going to call a snap election

If anything this will probably drive the Tories to do more authoritarian bullshit to try and cling on to power.

[New-Minneapolis]

So the Tories got shagged at the ballot box. But does this voter outrage at the blues last until the next general? Sunak isn't going to call a snap election

If anything this will probably drive the Tories to do more authoritarian bullshit to try and cling on to power.

I mean, the Tories in Westminster are probably going to pass a lot of right-wing legislation before the next election. That's is to be expected.

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

The Conservative Party are now just Klingons on the starboard bow. I doubt they manage to get much passed with the House of Lords and their own infighting for the future direction of the party.

[El Lazaro]

Highest Lib Dem % since 2019 GE. Lowest Labour % since 14 Aug (when Johnson was PM).

Westminster VI (7 May):

LAB: 41% (-4)
CON: 29% (+1)
LDEM: 16% (+4)
RFM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 4% (–)
SNP: 3% (+1)
OTH: 1% (–)

Changes +/- 30 April

DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE

[The Huskar Social Union]

Highest Lib Dem % since 2019 GE. Lowest Labour % since 14 Aug (when Johnson was PM).

Westminster VI (7 May):

LAB: 41% (-4)
CON: 29% (+1)
LDEM: 16% (+4)
RFM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 4% (–)
SNP: 3% (+1)
OTH: 1% (–)

Changes +/- 30 April

DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE

No no no no no no no you got it all wrong

Not Tim Farron

Ed Davey!

ED DAVEY SON

[The Nihilistic view]

Just checking in to see how we all enjoyed the coronation, personal highlights for me was the extra bank holiday today, Harry looking miserable at the ceremony and those pesky republicans getting locked up.

I was in work so no holiday for me. Just a normal day stacking shelves and putting out prices.

Are you planning on sticking around at all, i missed having you in the thread honestly. Added to the different views in discussions.

Haha ah thanks, probably more than the last year, not that that would be hard! I've just been so busy the last 9-12 months with a bunch of stuff because I decided I wanted to go back to accounting and finish my ACA exams. Just rarely have time to just chill around work, sport, study and social stuff.

[The Huskar Social Union]

I was in work so no holiday for me. Just a normal day stacking shelves and putting out prices.

Are you planning on sticking around at all, i missed having you in the thread honestly. Added to the different views in discussions.

Haha ah thanks, probably more than the last year, not that that would be hard! I've just been so busy the last 9-12 months with a bunch of stuff because I decided I wanted to go back to accounting and finish my ACA exams. Just rarely have time to just chill around work, sport, study and social stuff.

No worries, all of that is much more important at the end of the day.

[The Archregimancy]

<Returns from a conference in Poland>

Highest Lib Dem % since 2019 GE. Lowest Labour % since 14 Aug (when Johnson was PM).

Westminster VI (7 May):

LAB: 41% (-4)
CON: 29% (+1)
LDEM: 16% (+4)
RFM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 4% (–)
SNP: 3% (+1)
OTH: 1% (–)

Changes +/- 30 April

DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE

Time to get on board the Davey train!


More seriously, a proper LibDem revival alongside a sustained poll lead for Labour over over 10 points is a nightmare scenario for the Conservatives, especially if it was accompanied by tactical voting.

In real terms, here's the Election Maps UK projection on the basis of the above poll:

LAB: 355 (+153)
CON: 177 (-188)
LDM: 61 (+50)
SNP: 32 (-16)
PLC: 5 (+1)
GRN: 1 (=)

And here's the accompanying map:

[The Nihilistic view]

Just checking in to see how we all enjoyed the coronation, personal highlights for me was the extra bank holiday today, Harry looking miserable at the ceremony and those pesky republicans getting locked up.

Remember, nothing says free democracy like celebrating people having their free speech stamped on.

But we're a tyrannical patriarchal monarchy so that's not really a problem.

[Celritannia]

<Returns from a conference in Poland>

Highest Lib Dem % since 2019 GE. Lowest Labour % since 14 Aug (when Johnson was PM).

Westminster VI (7 May):

LAB: 41% (-4)
CON: 29% (+1)
LDEM: 16% (+4)
RFM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 4% (–)
SNP: 3% (+1)
OTH: 1% (–)

Changes +/- 30 April

DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE
DAVEY SURGE

Time to get on board the Davey train!


More seriously, a proper LibDem revival alongside a sustained poll lead for Labour over over 10 points is a nightmare scenario for the Conservatives, especially if it was accompanied by tactical voting.

In real terms, here's the Election Maps UK projection on the basis of the above poll:

LAB: 355 (+153)
CON: 177 (-188)
LDM: 61 (+50)
SNP: 32 (-16)
PLC: 5 (+1)
GRN: 1 (=)

And here's the accompanying map:

"Get on board the Davey Train" is a brilliant Lib Dem party slogan.

[Fartsniffage]

<Returns from a conference in Poland>




Time to get on board the Davey train!


More seriously, a proper LibDem revival alongside a sustained poll lead for Labour over over 10 points is a nightmare scenario for the Conservatives, especially if it was accompanied by tactical voting.

In real terms, here's the Election Maps UK projection on the basis of the above poll:

LAB: 355 (+153)
CON: 177 (-188)
LDM: 61 (+50)
SNP: 32 (-16)
PLC: 5 (+1)
GRN: 1 (=)

And here's the accompanying map:

"Get on board the Davey Train" is a brilliant Lib Dem party slogan.

The Davey Train has been cancelled due to strike action.

[Celritannia]

"Get on board the Davey Train" is a brilliant Lib Dem party slogan.

The Davey Train has been cancelled due to strike action.

"Get on board the Davey Replacement Bus Service."

[Delvian States]

Remember, nothing says free democracy like celebrating people having their free speech stamped on.

But we're a tyrannical patriarchal monarchy so that's not really a problem.

Patriarchy is a myth, anyway, so there's that.

[El Lazaro]

No no no no no no no you got it all wrong

Not Tim Farron

Ed Davey!

ED DAVEY SON

Those are different people? They look exactly the same, down to the hair and brows.

It’s not my fault; maybe the English should try distinguishing themselves from each other so I can tell them apart.

[Mtwara]

I wonder what a Labour/Lib Dem coalition would look like. I thought the Con/Lib government was okay, but I realise all the parties have moved on since then.

[Shrillland]

I wonder what a Labour/Lib Dem coalition would look like. I thought the Con/Lib government was okay, but I realise all the parties have moved on since then.

Well, the last time something close to that happened was the short-lived LibLab Pact, a C&S agreement in '78, and Callaghan isn't well remembered.

[Vassenor]

But we're a tyrannical patriarchal monarchy so that's not really a problem.

Patriarchy is a myth, anyway, so there's that.

Can we see actual evidence of this please?

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

Coronation: Met Police express regret over arrests of six anti-monarchy protesters

The Met said a review found there was no proof the six protesters, who were detained when their vehicle was stopped near the procession route, were planning to "lock on", a protesting tactic which is now banned.

Recent changes to the law, passed last week, make it illegal for protesters to use equipment to secure themselves to things like railings.

The Met said the group of six were detained after items were found in a vehicle which officers "had reasonable grounds to believe could be used as lock on devices".

But the force said it was "unable to prove intent to use them to lock on and disrupt the event".

One man in the group was also arrested for possession of a knife or pointed article.

The Met said it was "not clear at the time" to the arresting officers that "at least one of the group stopped had been engaging with police" about holding a lawful protest prior to the Coronation.

"We regret that those six people arrested were unable to join the wider group of protesters in Trafalgar Square and elsewhere on the procession route," a statement continued.

Now it has said all six people have had their bail cancelled and confirmed no further action will be taken.

I assume this means you can no longer cycle to a protest, because your bike lock will make you liable to arrest.

[Vassenor]

Coronation: Met Police express regret over arrests of six anti-monarchy protesters

The Met said a review found there was no proof the six protesters, who were detained when their vehicle was stopped near the procession route, were planning to "lock on", a protesting tactic which is now banned.

Recent changes to the law, passed last week, make it illegal for protesters to use equipment to secure themselves to things like railings.

The Met said the group of six were detained after items were found in a vehicle which officers "had reasonable grounds to believe could be used as lock on devices".

But the force said it was "unable to prove intent to use them to lock on and disrupt the event".

One man in the group was also arrested for possession of a knife or pointed article.

The Met said it was "not clear at the time" to the arresting officers that "at least one of the group stopped had been engaging with police" about holding a lawful protest prior to the Coronation.

"We regret that those six people arrested were unable to join the wider group of protesters in Trafalgar Square and elsewhere on the procession route," a statement continued.

Now it has said all six people have had their bail cancelled and confirmed no further action will be taken.

I assume this means you can no longer cycle to a protest, because your bike lock will make you liable to arrest.

"'ere, you got a loiscence for that there bike lock / ball of string / bottle of glue?"

[The Notorious Mad Jack]

I wonder what a Labour/Lib Dem coalition would look like. I thought the Con/Lib government was okay, but I realise all the parties have moved on since then.

Who knows, maybe the Lib Dems haven't learnt from 2010 and will trade away any of their eye catching or popular policies in return for House of Lords reform their coalition partners will wreck or a referendum on a form of PR they didn't even want and will fail?

Would be good for Labour, at least.

[The Archregimancy]

I wonder what a Labour/Lib Dem coalition would look like. I thought the Con/Lib government was okay, but I realise all the parties have moved on since then.

Who knows, maybe the Lib Dems haven't learnt from 2010 and will trade away any of their eye catching or popular policies in return for House of Lords reform their coalition partners will wreck or a referendum on a form of PR they didn't even want and will fail?

Would be good for Labour, at least.

One would hope that the necessary lessons have been learned at LibDem HQ; and at least Ed Davey will have vivid memories of the scale of the mistakes.

I could be proven wrong, but I don't think the LibDems will enter coalition at the Westminster level again without a cast-iron commitment to PR - rather than a referendum on a form of electoral reform that the party doesn't actually support (and, an important correction, the Alternative Vote system in the 2011 referendum is not a form of PR; it's instead a ranked-choice transferable vote system).

One of the disappointing things about 2010-2011 is the extent to which the party ignored Paddy Ashdown's clear warning over the need to have some form of PR in place if the LibDems were to ever enter coalition. Ashdown's diaries clearly outline his position on this in his description of his negotiations with Tony Blair before the 1997 election, when no one could quite believe that Labour really were on their way to a massive landslide, and it was a fairly common belief that a Lab-LibDem coalition was in the offing.

A post from the 2015 election:

Entering into a coalition without a cast-iron commitment to serious electoral reform, rather than a commitment to a referendum on a reform that no one wanted, was likely their biggest long-term tactical mistake.

As I noted earlier in the thread, Paddy Ashdown always made it very clear to Tony Blair during their pre-1997 negotiations (which were rendered moot by the scale of Labour's 1997 victory).

For example, Tuesday 1st of August, 1995 (page 336 of volume 1 of the Ashdown Diaries):

I explained that I wanted my Party to be committed to co-operation. But there was no point in doing this if the result was political suicide. If he [Blair] hit a period of unpopularity - which was bound to happen sooner or later - he would suffer; but we could be wiped out. PR was the mechanism which would ensure that could survive and therefore be able to support a Labour Government in a stable and dependable way.

Senior LibDems have always known that the cost of entering a coalition government was a likely severe hit to the party's popularity. Electoral reform was therefore seen as a necessary mechanism to allow for the party's survival when that happened, as well as normalising the pluralist European-style coalition governments that the party's influential pro-European federalist wing has always seen (for better or for worse) as a desirable alternative to what they typically see as Britain's post-WWII confrontational Manichean politics.

Entering into a coalition without a cast-iron guarantee of reform was therefore an act of conscious self-harm; whether anyone thinks that act of self-harm was worth it will no doubt depend on what they think of the LibDem's motives in going into coalition in 2010 in the first place.

[The Nihilistic view]

Coronation: Met Police express regret over arrests of six anti-monarchy protesters

The Met said a review found there was no proof the six protesters, who were detained when their vehicle was stopped near the procession route, were planning to "lock on", a protesting tactic which is now banned.

Recent changes to the law, passed last week, make it illegal for protesters to use equipment to secure themselves to things like railings.

The Met said the group of six were detained after items were found in a vehicle which officers "had reasonable grounds to believe could be used as lock on devices".

But the force said it was "unable to prove intent to use them to lock on and disrupt the event".

One man in the group was also arrested for possession of a knife or pointed article.

The Met said it was "not clear at the time" to the arresting officers that "at least one of the group stopped had been engaging with police" about holding a lawful protest prior to the Coronation.

"We regret that those six people arrested were unable to join the wider group of protesters in Trafalgar Square and elsewhere on the procession route," a statement continued.

Now it has said all six people have had their bail cancelled and confirmed no further action will be taken.

I assume this means you can no longer cycle to a protest, because your bike lock will make you liable to arrest.

One assumes the bike still works without a lock no?

[Vassenor]

Coronation: Met Police express regret over arrests of six anti-monarchy protesters



I assume this means you can no longer cycle to a protest, because your bike lock will make you liable to arrest.

One assumes the bike still works without a lock no?

This may shock you but some of us prefer not to have to pay to keep replacing our bikes when they get stolen.

[Ostroeuropa]

The justification for the arrest of the protestors offered (At least on the news earlier), that some had a history of throwing eggs at the monarchs and so there was a reasonable suspicion and it was precautionary, was indicative to me of how we don't really need this law. Surely if they have behaved that way in the past, a lifelong restraining order would be both proportional and prudent. Then you simply arrest them for breaking that, rather than protesting per se.

Such would also be applicable more generally to protestors who cause damage of various kinds without collectively punishing the protest movement in question.

"You're not allowed within 200 feet of a bank mate because you keep getting naked and screaming about globalism." and so on, as opposed to;

"Well we rounded up all of occupy wall street because this one time, a guy wanked into the ATM.".


I also think that it was disproportionate to go to an arrest if that was their justification rather than a search (this also applies to the "Lock-on" suspicion) which I think would have been proportionate and acceptable. So "You're nicked for breaking the restraining order, and you, because you've come here with him, I reckon you've got eggs on you and i'm gonna search you. No eggs, alright then mate, carry on.".

It seems to me that the police did not appropriately escalate through potential solutions and keep interference to the minimum necessary to secure the event, which is troubling.