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UK Politics Thread X: Upcoming Local Elections in May

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Will Labour win the next General Election and if so, by how much?

Labour will win with a landslide majority of over 100 seats
5
19%
Labour will win with a big majority of between 50-100 seats
7
26%
Labour will win with a smaller majority of between 1-50 seats
5
19%
Labour will win but fail to achieve a majority (Hung Parliament leading to Minority government)
0
No votes
Labour will win but fail to achieve a majority (Hung Parliament leading to coalition government with one or more parties)
3
11%
Labour will lose the next general election (Conservatives remain largest party)
2
7%
Sinn Fein will win the next general election
5
19%
 
Total votes : 27

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The Notorious Mad Jack
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Postby The Notorious Mad Jack » Fri May 05, 2023 1:32 pm

One seat in my district was decided by just 8 votes, with the Tories regaining a seat that had been held by a popular independent after she retire. The only other candidate was from the Green party, who genuinely might have put up more candidates in my area than Labour did.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Fri May 05, 2023 1:34 pm

Fartsniffage wrote:
The Archregimancy wrote:So I lost, as expected and hoped for, but in the end my council went from Tory control to NOC by a single seat.

The last seat to be decided on the day was won by the LibDems over the Conservatives by three votes. So incredibly close stuff.


It is boring living in such a safe seat. No drama for me to care about.

I did once live on the same street as a husband and wife couple of councillors. He was pressure washing his drive during a hose pipe ban and I tried to raise it but nothing came of it.

As long as you voted that's all matters.

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Minoa
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Postby Minoa » Fri May 05, 2023 1:36 pm

Fartsniffage wrote:-1000

Well, the biggest winners so far are Labour, followed by the Liberal Democrats, and then the Greens.
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Celritannia
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Postby Celritannia » Fri May 05, 2023 1:37 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Fartsniffage wrote:
It is boring living in such a safe seat. No drama for me to care about.

I did once live on the same street as a husband and wife couple of councillors. He was pressure washing his drive during a hose pipe ban and I tried to raise it but nothing came of it.

As long as you voted that's all matters.

Not all elections are important though.
Police Crime Commissioners are pointless elections, and not many people are invested in local ones.

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Celritannia
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Postby Celritannia » Fri May 05, 2023 1:38 pm

Minoa wrote:
Fartsniffage wrote:-1000

Well, the biggest winners so far are Labour, followed by the Liberal Democrats, and then the Greens.

Numerically, yes, but I think by gusto, the Lib Dems and the Greens far surpassed Labour.

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Fri May 05, 2023 1:40 pm

Celritannia wrote:
San Lumen wrote:As long as you voted that's all matters.

Not all elections are important though.
Police Crime Commissioners are pointless elections, and not many people are invested in local ones.


why are they pointless? Local government only has the power Parliament says it does correct? Its quite limited is not?

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Celritannia
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Postby Celritannia » Fri May 05, 2023 1:42 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Celritannia wrote:Not all elections are important though.
Police Crime Commissioners are pointless elections, and not many people are invested in local ones.


why are they pointless? Local government only has the power Parliament says it does correct? Its quite limited is not?


Because the Police and Crime Commissioner basically does nothing. They were a waste of money to implement. Not only that, they politicise the police.

Police Crime Commissioners are separate from the local elections.
Last edited by Celritannia on Fri May 05, 2023 8:46 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Fri May 05, 2023 1:43 pm

https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2023/ ... /E07000032

Labour gains Amber Valley from Conservatives gaining 15 seats, Conservatives lose 21, Greens gain 3, Independents and Others gain 2 and Liberal Democrats gain one.

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Saor Alba
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Postby Saor Alba » Fri May 05, 2023 1:44 pm

Is there any research on ethnicity and turnout? I've seen some wards, heavily South Asian, with over 50% turnout and I am wondering if those are just outliers or part of a larger trend.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Fri May 05, 2023 1:47 pm

https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2023/ ... /E06000016

Labour holds Leicester, loses 22 seats, Conservatives gain 17, Greens gain 3, Liberal Democrats gain 2

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El Lazaro
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby El Lazaro » Fri May 05, 2023 1:51 pm

Early national vote share projection from Sky News
Labour: +93
Conservative: -127
Lib Dems: +28

The Lib Dems pretty consistently get 16-18% of the vote in local elections while polling and turning out lower for general elections, so assuming similar numbers vote tactically in the general election, I would assume they’d only make modest gains while Labour gains a ton of projected Tory seats because pseudo-multiparty FPTP without alliances is almost the weirdest combination possible.

Even though it seems like Labour performed slightly worse (assuming not 100% third party tactical/swing voters intend to vote for them in general elections) than polling shows, this has got to be demoralizing for the 2023 Tory campaign. The biggest concern for Labour seems like it would be the number of votes they seem to have lost to the Greens. It’s not just an impressive showing for the Greens, but seeing as Labour is (I assume) competing over pretty much the same people, a lot of voters don’t seem enthusiastic about Starmer.
Last edited by El Lazaro on Fri May 05, 2023 1:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Rivria
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Postby Rivria » Fri May 05, 2023 2:38 pm

Agreed. I definitely think that these election results represent, more than anything, public dissatisfaction with the 13 years of Tory rule, rather than a genuine desire to see Starmer in Number 10, who, let's be honest, has the personality of a water cooler, and backtracks like a reverse runaway freight train on any progressive policies he's previously suggested he'd be willing to implement.

My unironic hope is for a hung parliament with a Labour minority government where the Lib Dems will hopefully be able to twist Labour's arm into introducing proportional representation, but I admit that's a long shot.
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Fri May 05, 2023 4:10 pm

Conservative Tom Wootton elected Mayor of Bedford, unseating Liberal Democrat Dave Hodgson by a majority of 145.

Only Bedford and Redcar and Cleveland left to call. Redcar and Clelevland because a third recount is taking place later today, and Bedford's under way.
Last edited by Shrillland on Fri May 05, 2023 4:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Emotional Support Crocodile
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Postby Emotional Support Crocodile » Fri May 05, 2023 11:15 pm

San Lumen wrote:https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2023/england/councils/E06000016

Labour holds Leicester, loses 22 seats, Conservatives gain 17, Greens gain 3, Liberal Democrats gain 2


Interesting, to me anyway, is that it was 19 candidates that the Labour Party decided to deselect.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... y-election
Just another surprising item on the bagging scale of life


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The Huskar Social Union
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Postby The Huskar Social Union » Sat May 06, 2023 1:49 am

So after all the councils bar one we have the following tallies (if im correct, i am just awake so bear with me):

Councillors:
LAB: 2,674 (+536)
CON: 2,299 (-1,061)
LDEM: 1,626 (+405)
IND: 874 (-80)
GRN: 481 (+241)
RA: 88 (-24)
RFM: 6 (+2)
LIB: 4 (+2)
YORK: 3 (+1)
UKIP: 0 (-25)
VACANT: 24 (+3)

Councils:
LAB: 71 (+22)
CON: 33 (-48)
LDEM: 29 (+12)
IND/OTH: 2 (+1)
RA: 2 (-)
GRN: 1 (+1)
NOC: 91 (+12)

The SPICE has indeed flowed.
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The Huskar Social Union
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Postby The Huskar Social Union » Sat May 06, 2023 2:35 am

Gona make a poll for the NI local elections since its the next upcoming one, vote if you want. The most recent one is now saved in the OP like the rest.

edit: Or since its the big day for ole charlie, would you rather have a poll about support/not supporting the monarchy for the next few days?
Last edited by The Huskar Social Union on Sat May 06, 2023 2:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The Notorious Mad Jack
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Postby The Notorious Mad Jack » Sat May 06, 2023 2:45 am

The Huskar Social Union wrote:Gona make a poll for the NI local elections since its the next upcoming one, vote if you want. The most recent one is now saved in the OP like the rest.

edit: Or since its the big day for ole charlie, would you rather have a poll about support/not supporting the monarchy for the next few days?

Do Northern Ireland, it's much more interesting than ol' big ear, opinions on whom probably haven't changed since about 1999.
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The Huskar Social Union
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Postby The Huskar Social Union » Sat May 06, 2023 3:04 am

The Notorious Mad Jack wrote:
The Huskar Social Union wrote:Gona make a poll for the NI local elections since its the next upcoming one, vote if you want. The most recent one is now saved in the OP like the rest.

edit: Or since its the big day for ole charlie, would you rather have a poll about support/not supporting the monarchy for the next few days?

Do Northern Ireland, it's much more interesting than ol' big ear, opinions on whom probably haven't changed since about 1999.

Alright, NI it is.

Since NI has STV as a voting system you can vote for multiple candidates/parties but im gona keep the poll a single option poll for first preference and it also keeps it in line with every other poll on here.
Last edited by The Huskar Social Union on Sat May 06, 2023 3:08 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Ifreann
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Postby Ifreann » Sat May 06, 2023 4:21 am


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Vassenor
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Postby Vassenor » Sat May 06, 2023 5:09 am



Interestingly apparently all the demos were previously agreed with police.

As if we needed more evidence that there is no freedom of speech in this country.
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Celritannia
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Postby Celritannia » Sat May 06, 2023 5:18 am

Now the coronation is over, we can get back to real politics, and not this nonesensical pageantry.

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Postby Democratic Poopland » Sat May 06, 2023 5:33 am

Celritannia wrote:Now the coronation is over, we can get back to real politics, and not this nonesensical pageantry.

No. They'll, whoever 'they' is, likely talk about the events. But still, I make errors too! So this may not be the case.
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Ifreann
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Postby Ifreann » Sat May 06, 2023 6:05 am

Vassenor wrote:


Interestingly apparently all the demos were previously agreed with police.

As if we needed more evidence that there is no freedom of speech in this country.

Perhaps Republic will learn to stop trying to work with the police.

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Forsher
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Postby Forsher » Sat May 06, 2023 6:42 am

I don't care how much it cost, you just can't put a price on real comedy:

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

(that was actually Zadoc the Priest)

Image

(sum of money was not an error)

Image

Image

Image

sup, preacher fellow

Image

Google's parent company Alphabet has announced plans to change its name to the Black Hand Gang

Image

Charlie, the Bribe Master

Image

Paul Newman, I'm coming for you.

Image

(That may not be funny... I believe "[__]" is how Youtube does swearing but I may be mistaken.")

Image

I don't know who he is, but fuck him and fuck his family too.

Image

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Image

word


Worth every penny of your money.
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Celritannia
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Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Celritannia » Sat May 06, 2023 6:43 am

Forsher wrote:I don't care how much it cost, you just can't put a price on real comedy:

Forsher wrote:Had great fun watching parts of the Royal Comedy Procession of Errors on Youtube:

(Image)

(Image)

(Image)

(Image)

(Image)

(Image)

(that was actually Zadoc the Priest)

(Image)

(sum of money was not an error)

(Image)

(Image)

(Image)

sup, preacher fellow

(Image)

Google's parent company Alphabet has announced plans to change its name to the Black Hand Gang

(Image)

Charlie, the Bribe Master

(Image)

Paul Newman, I'm coming for you.

(Image)

(That may not be funny... I believe "[__]" is how Youtube does swearing but I may be mistaken.")

(Image)

I don't know who he is, but fuck him and fuck his family too.

(Image)

The World Synchronised Swimming Federation and IOC today announced plans to rename the sport to Akron to gain credibility

(Image)

word


Worth every penny of your money.


King of pepper :lol:

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