UK Politics Thread X: Boris party report released

[The Nihilistic view]

When the NIPs inevitably triumph, will they be building a big beautiful dry stone wall to keep out the southerners?

I imagine it will be more to stop any defectors from leaving.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Today in the UK: Mick Lynch vs literally everyone.

Well, everyone in the Media at least.

When the NIPs inevitably triumph, will they be building a big beautiful dry stone wall to keep out the southerners?

Nah, they will be using the stone for fortifications to control the pesky Scottish lowlands after their righteous occupation by the army of Northumbria.

[Vassenor]

Today in the UK: Mick Lynch vs literally everyone.

So I guess tomorrow we're going to see how much dirt they can dig up on him after Piers Morgan's lame attempts to grill him on using The Hood as a PFP.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Traces of polio virus found in London sewage as health officials declare national incident

Officials believe there has been some spread between closely linked individuals in northeast London - probably extended family members.

Traces of the polio virus have been found during a routine sewage inspection in London, leading the UK Health Security Agency to declare a national incident.

Health officials are now concerned about the community spread of the virus after samples were collected from the Beckton Sewage Treatment Works in London, but have stressed the risk to the public is extremely low.

Several closely-related polio viruses were found in sewage samples taken between February and May. It has continued to evolve and has now been classified as a 'vaccine-derived' poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2).

Officials believe there has been some spread between closely linked individuals in northeast London - probably extended family members - and that these people are now shedding the type 2 poliovirus strain in their faeces.

Urgent investigations will try to establish the extent of community transmission and to identify where it may be occurring.

Dr Vanessa Saliba, a consultant epidemiologist at the UKHSA, said: "Vaccine-derived poliovirus is rare and the risk to the public overall is extremely low.

"Vaccine-derived poliovirus has the potential to spread, particularly in communities where vaccine uptake is lower. On rare occasions it can cause paralysis in people who are not fully vaccinated so if you or your child are not up to date with your polio vaccinations it's important you contact your GP to catch up or, if unsure, check your red book.

"Most of the UK population will be protected from vaccination in childhood, but in some communities with low vaccine coverage, individuals may remain at risk.

"We are urgently investigating to better understand the extent of this transmission and the NHS has been asked to swiftly report any suspected cases to the UKHSA, though no cases have been reported or confirmed so far."

It is likely the virus was shed by someone who was recently vaccinated against polio in a country where it has not yet been eradicated, such as Pakistan, Afghanistan or Nigeria.

=CONTINUES=

Obviously shit news to hear but thankfully we have vaccines etc to deal with polio so hopefully not too many people pick it up and it can be dealt with quickly

[Thethen]

Traces of polio virus found in London sewage as health officials declare national incident

Officials believe there has been some spread between closely linked individuals in northeast London - probably extended family members.

Traces of the polio virus have been found during a routine sewage inspection in London, leading the UK Health Security Agency to declare a national incident.

Health officials are now concerned about the community spread of the virus after samples were collected from the Beckton Sewage Treatment Works in London, but have stressed the risk to the public is extremely low.

Several closely-related polio viruses were found in sewage samples taken between February and May. It has continued to evolve and has now been classified as a 'vaccine-derived' poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2).

Officials believe there has been some spread between closely linked individuals in northeast London - probably extended family members - and that these people are now shedding the type 2 poliovirus strain in their faeces.

Urgent investigations will try to establish the extent of community transmission and to identify where it may be occurring.

Dr Vanessa Saliba, a consultant epidemiologist at the UKHSA, said: "Vaccine-derived poliovirus is rare and the risk to the public overall is extremely low.

"Vaccine-derived poliovirus has the potential to spread, particularly in communities where vaccine uptake is lower. On rare occasions it can cause paralysis in people who are not fully vaccinated so if you or your child are not up to date with your polio vaccinations it's important you contact your GP to catch up or, if unsure, check your red book.

"Most of the UK population will be protected from vaccination in childhood, but in some communities with low vaccine coverage, individuals may remain at risk.

"We are urgently investigating to better understand the extent of this transmission and the NHS has been asked to swiftly report any suspected cases to the UKHSA, though no cases have been reported or confirmed so far."

It is likely the virus was shed by someone who was recently vaccinated against polio in a country where it has not yet been eradicated, such as Pakistan, Afghanistan or Nigeria.

=CONTINUES=

Obviously shit news to hear but thankfully we have vaccines etc to deal with polio so hopefully not too many people pick it up and it can be dealt with quickly

First monkeypox, now polio. When will it end?

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

Traces of polio virus found in London sewage as health officials declare national incident

Obviously shit news to hear but thankfully we have vaccines etc to deal with polio so hopefully not too many people pick it up and it can be dealt with quickly

First monkeypox, now polio. When will it end?

Black Death 2: Bubonic Boogaloo

[The Archregimancy]

Kate Bush at number 1 in the charts; inflation reaching double digits; community transmission of polio; heatwaves regularly hitting 30 degrees celsius; the talk of strikes is in the air...

I remember 1976 quite well; I imagine few of the rest of you do.

[Fartsniffage]

Kate Bush at number 1 in the charts; inflation reaching double digits; community transmission of polio; heatwaves regularly hitting 30 degrees celsius; the talk of strikes is in the air...

I remember 1976 quite well; I imagine few of the rest of you do.

Kay Burley seems to.

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

Kate Bush at number 1 in the charts; inflation reaching double digits; community transmission of polio; heatwaves regularly hitting 30 degrees celsius; the talk of strikes is in the air...

I remember 1976 quite well; I imagine few of the rest of you do.

I look forward to seeing who gets appointed Minister for Drought.

I was sitting my O levels in 1976, the heat certainly didn't help with concentration. And there was Frampton Comes Alive. Kate Bush was a couple of years later.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Kate Bush at number 1 in the charts; inflation reaching double digits; community transmission of polio; heatwaves regularly hitting 30 degrees celsius; the talk of strikes is in the air...

I remember 1976 quite well; I imagine few of the rest of you do.

mfw i find myself, a Northern Irishman, transported to 1976

[The Huskar Social Union]

MPs have approved plans (by 215 to 70) to allow the UK Government to directly commission abortion services in Northern Ireland, bypassing the need for wider NI Executive approval.

All eight DUP MPs voted against and were joined by 61 Conservatives and one Labour MP.

Vote break down

Absolutely ridiculous it has taken this long to get this implemented here.

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

The polling stations have opened in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. I'm excited.

[The Archregimancy]

For what it's worth, I expect Labour to win Wakefield at a canter, but for the Conservatives to hold Tiverton by a whisker - possibly by under 500 votes. The LibDems are throwing everything at Tiverton, and the party has an excellent ground game, but it would be an almost unprecedented result for a party to come from third to overturn a 24,000 vote majority (and 60% vote share).

The Tiverton result will be spun as a victory for the government, and would likely allow the PM to keep holding on, but if they do come that close to losing the seat it's realistically a very bad result.

If the LibDems do somehow win Tiverton, the Prime Minister will have a very awkward trip to Rwanda, and Sir Ed Davey will be incredibly smug for the next 48 hours.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Today is the day, i demand copious amounts of spice!

Also will we see Davey rising period question mark

[Hirota]

[Juristonia]

Today in the UK: Mick Lynch vs literally everyone.

Well, everyone in the Media at least.

Dude's not taking any prisoners.
It's funny how quickly everyone goes in panic mode the second someone just responds without beating around the bush for half an hour.

[Nationalist Northumbria]

For what it's worth, I expect Labour to win Wakefield at a canter, but for the Conservatives to hold Tiverton by a whisker - possibly by under 500 votes. The LibDems are throwing everything at Tiverton, and the party has an excellent ground game, but it would be an almost unprecedented result for a party to come from third to overturn a 24,000 vote majority (and 60% vote share).

The Tiverton result will be spun as a victory for the government, and would likely allow the PM to keep holding on, but if they do come that close to losing the seat it's realistically a very bad result.

If the LibDems do somehow win Tiverton, the Prime Minister will have a very awkward trip to Rwanda, and Sir Ed Davey will be incredibly smug for the next 48 hours.

Yeah yeah yeah. You were saying similar things about North Shropshire, then the Lib Dems won it by fifteen points. You don't have to manage expectations on the NS forum.

[The Archregimancy]

Yeah yeah yeah. You were saying similar things about North Shropshire, then the Lib Dems won it by fifteen points. You don't have to manage expectations on the NS forum.

I'm not managing expectations; I'm offering a genuine personal opinion.

I've had absolutely no involvement in the Tiverton by-election other than having my in-box flooded with requests for donations.

But if you want a counter-opinion from a LibDem voter, here's PoliticalBetting lead editor Mike Smithson saying that he's considering putting a bet on a LibDem majority of 3000+.


As to North Shropshire, having reviewed my posts on the subject, I think you may be misremembering what I wrote.

[Nationalist Northumbria]

Yeah yeah yeah. You were saying similar things about North Shropshire, then the Lib Dems won it by fifteen points. You don't have to manage expectations on the NS forum.

I'm not managing expectations; I'm offering a genuine personal opinion.

I've had absolutely no involvement in the Tiverton by-election other than having my in-box flooded with requests for donations.

But if you want a counter-opinion from a LibDem voter, here's PoliticalBetting lead editor Mike Smithson saying that he's considering putting a bet on a LibDem majority of 3000+.


As to North Shropshire, having reviewed my posts on the subject, I think you may be misremembering what I wrote.

viewtopic.php?p=39212133#p39212133

[The Archregimancy]

I'm not managing expectations; I'm offering a genuine personal opinion.

I've had absolutely no involvement in the Tiverton by-election other than having my in-box flooded with requests for donations.

But if you want a counter-opinion from a LibDem voter, here's PoliticalBetting lead editor Mike Smithson saying that he's considering putting a bet on a LibDem majority of 3000+.


As to North Shropshire, having reviewed my posts on the subject, I think you may be misremembering what I wrote.

viewtopic.php?p=39212133#p39212133

Yes, I'm aware of that post, and it's included in my link. You'll note that it was written four days before the North Shropshire by-election, specifically refers to internal polling that was shared earlier that day, and leaves open the possibility of a LibDem win depending on other factors. It's quite different from predicting a loss on the actual day of the election.

I know that you'll likely find this an odd concept, but just because I support a specific political party doesn't necessarily mean I feel a need to be a booster over predicting their performance in specific elections.

It may be that I'm wrong; anyone who's been around these threads over the last 12 years will know better than to use my political predictions as the basis of a bet. But I do at least try to be honest about what I think.

[Hirota]

I support a specific political party doesn't necessarily mean I feel a need to be a booster over predicting their performance in specific elections.

Don't you know where you are posting Arch? This is NSG, we don't take kindly to advanced concepts like nuance and a lack of tribalism.

[Nationalist Northumbria]

viewtopic.php?p=39212133#p39212133

Yes, I'm aware of that post, and it's included in my link. You'll note that it was written four days before the North Shropshire by-election, specifically refers to internal polling that was shared earlier that day, and leaves open the possibility of a LibDem win depending on other factors. It's quite different from predicting a loss on the actual day of the election.

I know that you'll likely find this an odd concept, but just because I support a specific political party doesn't necessarily mean I feel a need to be a booster over predicting their performance in specific elections.

It may be that I'm wrong; anyone who's been around these threads over the last 12 years will know better than to use my political predictions as the basis of a bet. But I do at least try to be honest about what I think.

Suppose my scepticism might in part come from being on other forums where Lib Dem supporters are repeating exactly the same expectations-managing arguments they were using in the run-up to North Shropshire. Point is, last time we were getting from the Lib Dems "it's so close! we're tied!" briefing and internal polling and then election day came and they blew the Tories out of the water. This time we're getting exactly the same. If the Lib Dems don't get at least a 5% majority in Tiverton and Honiton I promise I will quit NSG for a month.

[The Archregimancy]

Yes, I'm aware of that post, and it's included in my link. You'll note that it was written four days before the North Shropshire by-election, specifically refers to internal polling that was shared earlier that day, and leaves open the possibility of a LibDem win depending on other factors. It's quite different from predicting a loss on the actual day of the election.

I know that you'll likely find this an odd concept, but just because I support a specific political party doesn't necessarily mean I feel a need to be a booster over predicting their performance in specific elections.

It may be that I'm wrong; anyone who's been around these threads over the last 12 years will know better than to use my political predictions as the basis of a bet. But I do at least try to be honest about what I think.

Suppose my scepticism might in part come from being on other forums where Lib Dem supporters are repeating exactly the same expectations-managing arguments they were using in the run-up to North Shropshire. Point is, last time we were getting from the Lib Dems "it's so close! we're tied!" briefing and internal polling and then election day came and they blew the Tories out of the water. This time we're getting exactly the same. If the Lib Dems don't get at least a 5% majority in Tiverton and Honiton I promise I will quit NSG for a month.

If internal polling is close, it's a standard tactic by the LibDems to release that internal polling.

This messaging is used to both drive activist support on the basis that 'we're incredibly close, and your support could make the difference' and encourage tactical voting by Labour and Green supporters.

It's therefore in the interest of LibDem activists to suggest the election is close in the run-up to the election.

But there's a significant difference in using that as strategic messaging in the lead-up to the election and making a personal prediction after polls have opened. My personal prediction after polls have opened is obviously not designed to inspire activists or encourage supporters of other parties in Tiverton to switch their vote.


Edit:

I'll obviously be delighted if I am wrong, mind.

[Teletubieland]

Incidentially for election fans thinking of staying up for the results, should be between 4AM and 6AM.

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

Incidentially for election fans thinking of staying up for the results, should be between 4AM and 6AM.

That's more get up half an hour early, than stay up late for me.